This is our weekly “ask me anything” feature for subscribers to Foreign Exchanges. I'm here to answer your questions (briefly; please don't ask anything that would require 800 words to properly answer), respond to your comments, sympathize with your pain, etc., about any topic related to the Middle East, history, US foreign policy, politics, pretty much anything. It might take me a day or two but you’ll get a response by the end of the week. If I can't answer your question I'll tell you, so there's no harm in saying whatever's on your mind. Just hit the comments.
This week we’re trying something a little different and opening the thread up for everybody. This won’t be a regular thing but it’s my last weekly AMA before I go on vacation and this seems like as good a time as any to let non-subscribers get a look at this feature. So whether you’re an FX subscriber or not, the comments are open and you can ask away.
This week we will also be doing an audio “Ask Derek Anything” for subscribers only that I’ll record on Thursday. The thread for those questions will go up later this afternoon. I’d like that AMA to focus on questions related to our recent podcasts, but will try to answer anything there as well. If you are a subscriber, please don’t put questions for that AMA in this thread because I won’t be able to keep track of them.
What’s the significance of the “attacks” on ships near Iran happening in the Gulf of Oman rather than the Strait of Hormuz? Does the location make it more or less likely that Iran was involved?
Ever since “Pancho Montana” stopped and my BBC friends and I were nearly killed in Mexico (they beat the shit out of me in Mexico after living safely in the Middle East with the PFLP) we have been looking for a good report about something leftist other than superficial ideas about Mexico, even Venezuela? Economic piece is important but more lives on the ground. People on the ground. Of course Trump is easy to make a topic but more interesting no one cares about him in Mexico and the dynamics here. Wealthy and the poor is it all. The divide is alive and well. Live here and well, Trump, is so far away. Can you follow the Narco/US/Mex gov movements and how US pretends to care and how wealthy in Mexico care less. And Mexican history is fun. Lot to ask but come on most people get their history from “Narcos” the show.
Turkey: With the CHP winning the re-run for the Istanbul mayoralty should one be on the lookout for immediate reverberations to show up in general Turkish policy towards any of the numerous problems facing the nation? Or is it more "wait and see" given the AKP's strength in other institutions?
There are too many to give anything but a broad answer, but how do you think 2020 Dem candidates for president have reacted to increasing U.S.-Iran tensions? While most say Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake, many of them have:
1, talked about sanctions like they'd be effective or have even supported sanctions in the past
2, seemed to concede that many of Bolton's claims from the last few weeks are correct despite the lack of evidence,
3, even said the would try to rejoin the JCPOA if elected president — but would renegotiate the terms, which isn't even possible, is it?
Generally, it's been pretty disappointing, though a few non-interventionist candidates have done better.
What do the military capabilities of the Revolutionary Guard vs the regular Iranian army look like, in the broadest possible terms? I don't have a very good sense of the relative scale.
Have been going through old podcasts and just finished the ones about Baathism. In them you run through post WW1 Iraqi history and the death of King Ghazi in a car crash. I recently read "A Brutal Friendship" by Said Aburish in which he seems to make a pretty good case for the car crash actually being an assassination on Nuri Al-Said's orders (supposedly interviews with people in the Iraq regime at the time). Did you not mention this for time reasons as it was just a quick run through, or is this version of events not really that well established, or even debunked by now?
What do you make of Macron and Trump's current relationship? Macron was supposedly Trump's buddy, someone who could actually engage with him... is that by the wayside now and what is the future of the France-U.S. relationship?
It may be too soon to have any real answer to this, but how do you think the recent events in Amhara Region will impact Ethiopia's transition? How has Abiy handled things in your opinion?
Supposing there's a green revolution, and in say 20 years the majority of the planet has switched to renewable sources of energy, what would the future look like for the oil-producing nations of the middle east?
What’s the significance of the “attacks” on ships near Iran happening in the Gulf of Oman rather than the Strait of Hormuz? Does the location make it more or less likely that Iran was involved?
Ever since “Pancho Montana” stopped and my BBC friends and I were nearly killed in Mexico (they beat the shit out of me in Mexico after living safely in the Middle East with the PFLP) we have been looking for a good report about something leftist other than superficial ideas about Mexico, even Venezuela? Economic piece is important but more lives on the ground. People on the ground. Of course Trump is easy to make a topic but more interesting no one cares about him in Mexico and the dynamics here. Wealthy and the poor is it all. The divide is alive and well. Live here and well, Trump, is so far away. Can you follow the Narco/US/Mex gov movements and how US pretends to care and how wealthy in Mexico care less. And Mexican history is fun. Lot to ask but come on most people get their history from “Narcos” the show.
Turkey: With the CHP winning the re-run for the Istanbul mayoralty should one be on the lookout for immediate reverberations to show up in general Turkish policy towards any of the numerous problems facing the nation? Or is it more "wait and see" given the AKP's strength in other institutions?
There are too many to give anything but a broad answer, but how do you think 2020 Dem candidates for president have reacted to increasing U.S.-Iran tensions? While most say Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake, many of them have:
1, talked about sanctions like they'd be effective or have even supported sanctions in the past
2, seemed to concede that many of Bolton's claims from the last few weeks are correct despite the lack of evidence,
3, even said the would try to rejoin the JCPOA if elected president — but would renegotiate the terms, which isn't even possible, is it?
Generally, it's been pretty disappointing, though a few non-interventionist candidates have done better.
What do the military capabilities of the Revolutionary Guard vs the regular Iranian army look like, in the broadest possible terms? I don't have a very good sense of the relative scale.
Have been going through old podcasts and just finished the ones about Baathism. In them you run through post WW1 Iraqi history and the death of King Ghazi in a car crash. I recently read "A Brutal Friendship" by Said Aburish in which he seems to make a pretty good case for the car crash actually being an assassination on Nuri Al-Said's orders (supposedly interviews with people in the Iraq regime at the time). Did you not mention this for time reasons as it was just a quick run through, or is this version of events not really that well established, or even debunked by now?
What do you make of Macron and Trump's current relationship? Macron was supposedly Trump's buddy, someone who could actually engage with him... is that by the wayside now and what is the future of the France-U.S. relationship?
Hi Derek, what's your take on Kushner's Palestinian plan?
It may be too soon to have any real answer to this, but how do you think the recent events in Amhara Region will impact Ethiopia's transition? How has Abiy handled things in your opinion?
Supposing there's a green revolution, and in say 20 years the majority of the planet has switched to renewable sources of energy, what would the future look like for the oil-producing nations of the middle east?
What is the Islamic concept of heaven?