This is our weekly “ask me anything” feature for subscribers to Foreign Exchanges. I'm here to answer your questions (briefly; please don't ask anything that would require 800 words to properly answer), respond to your comments, sympathize with your pain, etc., about any topic related to the Middle East, history, US foreign policy, politics, pretty much anything. It might take me a day or two but you’ll get a response by the end of the week. If I can't answer your question I'll tell you, so there's no harm in saying whatever's on your mind. Just hit the comments.
This week we’re trying something a little different and opening the thread up for everybody. This won’t be a regular thing but it’s my last weekly AMA before I go on vacation and this seems like as good a time as any to let non-subscribers get a look at this feature. So whether you’re an FX subscriber or not, the comments are open and you can ask away.
This week we will also be doing an audio “Ask Derek Anything” for subscribers only that I’ll record on Thursday. The thread for those questions will go up later this afternoon. I’d like that AMA to focus on questions related to our recent podcasts, but will try to answer anything there as well. If you are a subscriber, please don’t put questions for that AMA in this thread because I won’t be able to keep track of them.
What’s the significance of the “attacks” on ships near Iran happening in the Gulf of Oman rather than the Strait of Hormuz? Does the location make it more or less likely that Iran was involved?
Not really. It's all part of the same bottleneck and the Iranians have small boats all over that region from what I understand. The first attack happened very close to the UAE but the second happened closer to the Iranian coast so there doesn't seem to be a pattern in terms of location.
Ever since “Pancho Montana” stopped and my BBC friends and I were nearly killed in Mexico (they beat the shit out of me in Mexico after living safely in the Middle East with the PFLP) we have been looking for a good report about something leftist other than superficial ideas about Mexico, even Venezuela? Economic piece is important but more lives on the ground. People on the ground. Of course Trump is easy to make a topic but more interesting no one cares about him in Mexico and the dynamics here. Wealthy and the poor is it all. The divide is alive and well. Live here and well, Trump, is so far away. Can you follow the Narco/US/Mex gov movements and how US pretends to care and how wealthy in Mexico care less. And Mexican history is fun. Lot to ask but come on most people get their history from “Narcos” the show.
I'm not entirely sure what your question is here, but let me try to address what I think it is. If you'd like to see more coverage of Mexico I'd be more than happy to host guest pieces on Mexican topics and/or bring in guests on the podcast who can talk about Mexico but I'm not and realistically at this point in my life will never be any more than superficially knowledgable in Mexican politics or socioeconomics. I'm not even versed enough on the subject to really know who to invite to contribute. I'm always glad to get suggestions on those fronts, though. Just send me an email.
Thanks! Definitley will connect you to at least the modern aspects of the conflict. And even UNAM historians. If this country scared off the actual War Nerd we need some one else to step up.
Turkey: With the CHP winning the re-run for the Istanbul mayoralty should one be on the lookout for immediate reverberations to show up in general Turkish policy towards any of the numerous problems facing the nation? Or is it more "wait and see" given the AKP's strength in other institutions?
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "reverberations." I wouldn't expect much to change in Turkish politics because, as you say, AKP still dominates most of the levers of power in the country. Where the loss of Istanbul hurts from a political perspective is in the longer term, as the party loses some of its ability to do big patronage things (don't forget it also lost Ankara in March) and as Imamoglu establishes a national profile.
There are too many to give anything but a broad answer, but how do you think 2020 Dem candidates for president have reacted to increasing U.S.-Iran tensions? While most say Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake, many of them have:
1, talked about sanctions like they'd be effective or have even supported sanctions in the past
2, seemed to concede that many of Bolton's claims from the last few weeks are correct despite the lack of evidence,
3, even said the would try to rejoin the JCPOA if elected president — but would renegotiate the terms, which isn't even possible, is it?
Generally, it's been pretty disappointing, though a few non-interventionist candidates have done better.
To be completely honest I've had all I can take staying on top of the story itself and haven't spent much time looking at how the candidates have responded. From what you describe it sounds like they responded as typical Democrats: critical of what the Republican president has done but not bold enough to challenge the assumptions that underpin his policy. To your third point, this is a prevailing view within Democratic Party foreign policy discourse and it's a complete fantasy. Unless you're prepared to offer the Iranians substantial new guaranteed benefits, which as far as I can tell none of these "renegotiate the JCPOA" plans do, they have absolutely no reason to agree to make new concessions around a deal whose benefits they never saw and which the US junked on a whim. Rejoining the JCPOA unconditionally would be essential to rebuilding any semblance of good faith in the process in hopes of getting the Iranians to reengage after that.
What do the military capabilities of the Revolutionary Guard vs the regular Iranian army look like, in the broadest possible terms? I don't have a very good sense of the relative scale.
The regular Iranian military has (it's believed) somewhere in the 450,000-500,000 range in terms of soldiers, while the IRGC has 125,000 (though if you include the paramilitary Basij volunteers that number goes up potentially into the millions). It's believed that the regular military gets about half the budget the IRGC does, and the IRGC operates independent revenue streams that make that comparison more imbalanced.
Have been going through old podcasts and just finished the ones about Baathism. In them you run through post WW1 Iraqi history and the death of King Ghazi in a car crash. I recently read "A Brutal Friendship" by Said Aburish in which he seems to make a pretty good case for the car crash actually being an assassination on Nuri Al-Said's orders (supposedly interviews with people in the Iraq regime at the time). Did you not mention this for time reasons as it was just a quick run through, or is this version of events not really that well established, or even debunked by now?
What do you make of Macron and Trump's current relationship? Macron was supposedly Trump's buddy, someone who could actually engage with him... is that by the wayside now and what is the future of the France-U.S. relationship?
Has Macron even engaged with Trump on anything recently? I think he's got enough on his plate domestically and trying to wrestle European leadership from Angela Merkel.
We don't really know what it is yet other than that it's going to be bad for the Palestinians. But I will say that asking the Palestinians to sell their personhood isn't a particularly new or innovative approach to the crisis, despite what Kushner has been saying.
It may be too soon to have any real answer to this, but how do you think the recent events in Amhara Region will impact Ethiopia's transition? How has Abiy handled things in your opinion?
Yeah, this is way too early. We have no idea how large the plot was or even its full motive. The alleged ringleader was killed by Ethiopian security today so it may fizzle out completely now. There's no indication yet that there was an Amhara ethnic component to the coup attempt, which is what would really screw around with the transition. As for Abiy I think he's done a remarkable job of opening up Ethiopian politics and settling longstanding conflicts with Eritrea, Somalia, etc., but his neoliberalism is going to invite long term problems and will likely exacerbate ethnic/regional tensions once his economic reforms really kick in.
Supposing there's a green revolution, and in say 20 years the majority of the planet has switched to renewable sources of energy, what would the future look like for the oil-producing nations of the middle east?
It really depends on how effective MBS's Vision 2030 project is. If it flops then Saudi Arabia is going to be in bad shape. Iraq is already a mess now and badly needs people to keep buying oil to have any chance of rebuilding. Plus it's one of the places most likely to lose huge chunks of habitable land over the next couple of decades. Iran should have the human capital and resources to diversify but it would require getting out from under sanctions and legitimately a change in leadership (not regime change but leadership with a genuine commitment to fighting corruption and breaking the IRGC's grip on the economy). Dubai should be OK but Abu Dhabi will suffer. Qatar might be OK depending on how quickly everybody transitions away from natural gas. That's really their main resource now and seems like it's going to have a longer shelf life than oil in terms of wide usage.
Muslims call it "Jannah," or "garden," and it's basically an Eden-style paradise. Abundant food and water, banquets, luxuries abounding, that sort of thing, and everybody gets to be with their families (though they also get appealing new mates so I'm not sure how that's supposed to work). There are more esoteric interpretations like Ghazali, who argued that all the details were allegorical representations of the joy one feels.
What’s the significance of the “attacks” on ships near Iran happening in the Gulf of Oman rather than the Strait of Hormuz? Does the location make it more or less likely that Iran was involved?
Not really. It's all part of the same bottleneck and the Iranians have small boats all over that region from what I understand. The first attack happened very close to the UAE but the second happened closer to the Iranian coast so there doesn't seem to be a pattern in terms of location.
Ever since “Pancho Montana” stopped and my BBC friends and I were nearly killed in Mexico (they beat the shit out of me in Mexico after living safely in the Middle East with the PFLP) we have been looking for a good report about something leftist other than superficial ideas about Mexico, even Venezuela? Economic piece is important but more lives on the ground. People on the ground. Of course Trump is easy to make a topic but more interesting no one cares about him in Mexico and the dynamics here. Wealthy and the poor is it all. The divide is alive and well. Live here and well, Trump, is so far away. Can you follow the Narco/US/Mex gov movements and how US pretends to care and how wealthy in Mexico care less. And Mexican history is fun. Lot to ask but come on most people get their history from “Narcos” the show.
I'm not entirely sure what your question is here, but let me try to address what I think it is. If you'd like to see more coverage of Mexico I'd be more than happy to host guest pieces on Mexican topics and/or bring in guests on the podcast who can talk about Mexico but I'm not and realistically at this point in my life will never be any more than superficially knowledgable in Mexican politics or socioeconomics. I'm not even versed enough on the subject to really know who to invite to contribute. I'm always glad to get suggestions on those fronts, though. Just send me an email.
Thanks! Definitley will connect you to at least the modern aspects of the conflict. And even UNAM historians. If this country scared off the actual War Nerd we need some one else to step up.
Turkey: With the CHP winning the re-run for the Istanbul mayoralty should one be on the lookout for immediate reverberations to show up in general Turkish policy towards any of the numerous problems facing the nation? Or is it more "wait and see" given the AKP's strength in other institutions?
I'm not quite sure what you mean by "reverberations." I wouldn't expect much to change in Turkish politics because, as you say, AKP still dominates most of the levers of power in the country. Where the loss of Istanbul hurts from a political perspective is in the longer term, as the party loses some of its ability to do big patronage things (don't forget it also lost Ankara in March) and as Imamoglu establishes a national profile.
There are too many to give anything but a broad answer, but how do you think 2020 Dem candidates for president have reacted to increasing U.S.-Iran tensions? While most say Trump withdrawing from the JCPOA was a mistake, many of them have:
1, talked about sanctions like they'd be effective or have even supported sanctions in the past
2, seemed to concede that many of Bolton's claims from the last few weeks are correct despite the lack of evidence,
3, even said the would try to rejoin the JCPOA if elected president — but would renegotiate the terms, which isn't even possible, is it?
Generally, it's been pretty disappointing, though a few non-interventionist candidates have done better.
To be completely honest I've had all I can take staying on top of the story itself and haven't spent much time looking at how the candidates have responded. From what you describe it sounds like they responded as typical Democrats: critical of what the Republican president has done but not bold enough to challenge the assumptions that underpin his policy. To your third point, this is a prevailing view within Democratic Party foreign policy discourse and it's a complete fantasy. Unless you're prepared to offer the Iranians substantial new guaranteed benefits, which as far as I can tell none of these "renegotiate the JCPOA" plans do, they have absolutely no reason to agree to make new concessions around a deal whose benefits they never saw and which the US junked on a whim. Rejoining the JCPOA unconditionally would be essential to rebuilding any semblance of good faith in the process in hopes of getting the Iranians to reengage after that.
What do the military capabilities of the Revolutionary Guard vs the regular Iranian army look like, in the broadest possible terms? I don't have a very good sense of the relative scale.
The regular Iranian military has (it's believed) somewhere in the 450,000-500,000 range in terms of soldiers, while the IRGC has 125,000 (though if you include the paramilitary Basij volunteers that number goes up potentially into the millions). It's believed that the regular military gets about half the budget the IRGC does, and the IRGC operates independent revenue streams that make that comparison more imbalanced.
Have been going through old podcasts and just finished the ones about Baathism. In them you run through post WW1 Iraqi history and the death of King Ghazi in a car crash. I recently read "A Brutal Friendship" by Said Aburish in which he seems to make a pretty good case for the car crash actually being an assassination on Nuri Al-Said's orders (supposedly interviews with people in the Iraq regime at the time). Did you not mention this for time reasons as it was just a quick run through, or is this version of events not really that well established, or even debunked by now?
It's an iffy claim and had nothing to do with the story so I opted not to spend time on it.
What do you make of Macron and Trump's current relationship? Macron was supposedly Trump's buddy, someone who could actually engage with him... is that by the wayside now and what is the future of the France-U.S. relationship?
Has Macron even engaged with Trump on anything recently? I think he's got enough on his plate domestically and trying to wrestle European leadership from Angela Merkel.
Hi Derek, what's your take on Kushner's Palestinian plan?
We don't really know what it is yet other than that it's going to be bad for the Palestinians. But I will say that asking the Palestinians to sell their personhood isn't a particularly new or innovative approach to the crisis, despite what Kushner has been saying.
It may be too soon to have any real answer to this, but how do you think the recent events in Amhara Region will impact Ethiopia's transition? How has Abiy handled things in your opinion?
Yeah, this is way too early. We have no idea how large the plot was or even its full motive. The alleged ringleader was killed by Ethiopian security today so it may fizzle out completely now. There's no indication yet that there was an Amhara ethnic component to the coup attempt, which is what would really screw around with the transition. As for Abiy I think he's done a remarkable job of opening up Ethiopian politics and settling longstanding conflicts with Eritrea, Somalia, etc., but his neoliberalism is going to invite long term problems and will likely exacerbate ethnic/regional tensions once his economic reforms really kick in.
Supposing there's a green revolution, and in say 20 years the majority of the planet has switched to renewable sources of energy, what would the future look like for the oil-producing nations of the middle east?
It really depends on how effective MBS's Vision 2030 project is. If it flops then Saudi Arabia is going to be in bad shape. Iraq is already a mess now and badly needs people to keep buying oil to have any chance of rebuilding. Plus it's one of the places most likely to lose huge chunks of habitable land over the next couple of decades. Iran should have the human capital and resources to diversify but it would require getting out from under sanctions and legitimately a change in leadership (not regime change but leadership with a genuine commitment to fighting corruption and breaking the IRGC's grip on the economy). Dubai should be OK but Abu Dhabi will suffer. Qatar might be OK depending on how quickly everybody transitions away from natural gas. That's really their main resource now and seems like it's going to have a longer shelf life than oil in terms of wide usage.
What is the Islamic concept of heaven?
Muslims call it "Jannah," or "garden," and it's basically an Eden-style paradise. Abundant food and water, banquets, luxuries abounding, that sort of thing, and everybody gets to be with their families (though they also get appealing new mates so I'm not sure how that's supposed to work). There are more esoteric interpretations like Ghazali, who argued that all the details were allegorical representations of the joy one feels.