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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
October 5, 610: The rebel Heraclius (d. 641) becomes Byzantine Emperor after executing his predecessor, Phocas.
October 5, 1789: A group of women angry over high food prices and scarcity march from Paris to the royal residence at Versailles, attracting a crowd of supporters along the way. The “Women’s March on Versailles,” saw its goals morph from a simple demand for food to a call for the royal court to return to Paris, where it might be more immediately accountable to the public. Louis XVI eventually agreed to that demand, and the victory helped lend momentum to the budding revolutionary movement.
October 6, 1973: The Yom Kippur War begins with an Egyptian surprise attack against unprepared Israeli military units in the then-occupied Sinai Peninsula and a Syrian attack on Israeli units in the Golan. The war ended almost three weeks later in a tactical Israeli victory that nevertheless sparked a wave of domestic criticism over the intelligence failure that left the Israelis so unprepared for the initial attack. Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir’s government fell not long after as a result. Despite Egypt’s defeat, its initial success was celebrated back home and gave President Anwar Sadat (at US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s urging) the political capital to shift Egypt’s Cold War orientation toward the US and begin the negotiations that would eventually lead to the Camp David Accords.
October 6, 1981: Members of Egyptian Islamic Jihad assassinate Egyptian President Anwar Sadat during the annual “Military Day” parade celebrating the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. EIJ targeted Sadat over his diplomatic outreach to Israel after the war, most especially the aforementioned Camp David Accords in 1978.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
On the eve of the first anniversary of the October 7 attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border on Sunday and assured them that “we will win.” To the extent that he’s defined “we” as “Benjamin Netanyahu personally” and “winning” as “killing people en masse indefinitely,” it’s hard to argue with his prediction. If either of those terms means anything other than that then I think the picture is less clear. One reason I say that is because nine months after the Israeli military (IDF) declared “mission accomplished” in northern Gaza it’s reportedly heading back there because it says that Hamas has started “to rebuild its operational capabilities in the area.”
What appears to be happening is something Local Call’s Meron Rapoport predicted a couple of weeks ago, which is the start of a new IDF operation to “liquidate” what remains of northern Gaza. The opening move in this operation would be a new evacuation order for all of Gaza north of the “Netzarim Corridor,” which the IDF has now issued. Once Israeli officials feel they’ve allowed a decent interval for that evacuation they’ll completely close off northern Gaza and treat any human being left there as a de facto enemy combatant. They can then stop pretending to care about humanitarian conditions and “cleanse” the area of human life by whatever means necessary. Rapoport suggests that settlers would then be allowed into the area, which is perhaps going too far, but the rest of his piece seems to be coming to fruition.
We’ll get to Lebanon in a moment, but with so much international attention having shifted there I think it’s important to point out that the IDF has by no means reduced the intensity of its violence in Gaza or the West Bank. For example, IDF airstrikes on Sunday killed at least 17 people in Jabaliya and at least 26 in a mosque-turned-shelter in Deir al-Balah, while on Saturday the Israelis killed at least 37 people across the territory including at least 12 in Nuseirat alone, and back on Thursday an IDF airstrike killed at least 18 people in the West Bank’s Tulkarm refugee camp.
Elsewhere:
An open letter from 99 US medical personnel who have spent time volunteering in Gaza to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris includes the claim “that the death toll from this conflict is already greater than 118,908, an astonishing 5.4% of Gaza’s population.” The letter goes on to argue that “with only marginal exceptions, everyone in Gaza is sick, injured, or both. This includes every national aid worker, every international volunteer, and probably every Israeli hostage: every man, woman, and child,” and predicts “that tens of thousands more will die in the coming months, especially with the onset of the winter rains in Gaza. Most of them will be young children.”
Haaretz is keeping the “exile Yahya Sinwar” idea alive, claiming that “Israeli officials are examining the possibility” of letting him and other senior Hamas leaders leave Gaza and go to Sudan. Assuming this is accurate the enticement for Sinwar and company, aside from the fact that they’d still be alive, would be that the Sudanese government in this plan would release Hamas assets that it had previously frozen. How Sinwar or the others would be expected to function in Sudan, which is presently struggling through its own debilitating war, is unclear and I presume not really of concern to the Israelis.
Presumably spurred by the escalation of the IDF’s Lebanon campaign, French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday called for a halt to “delivering weapons to fight in Gaza.” His striking comments drew a sharp rebuke from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but fans of the French leader will no doubt be proud to know that he stood firm for a good hour or two before he called Netanyahu to beg forgiveness and stress that France’s “commitment to Israel's security is unwavering.” Inspiring stuff.
Independent analysis of Tuesday’s Iranian missile strike suggests that it may have been fairly successful, particularly the attacks on the IDF’s Tel Nof and Nevatim bases. Satellite imagery seems to back up videos that circulated on social media showing Iranian missiles striking those facilities and in some cases causing what appear to be secondary explosions (which would indicate that they hit something combustible). It’s still unclear how much actual damage the missiles caused (airbases include a large amount of empty space) but comments dismissing the strike as a complete failure seem to be misplaced.
Gideon Saar ended weeks of speculation last weekend by finally agreeing to join Netanyahu’s coalition. He’s not replacing any existing ministers, at least not yet, but he brings four Knesset votes with him and that puts 68 seats at Netanyahu’s disposal. This could give the PM more freedom to risk alienating some of his far-right partners, but there’s very little daylight between Saar and those parties (especially with respect to the war effort) so the potential effect is unclear.
A new Al Jazeera documentary examines institutional pro-Israel bias at the BBC and CNN, based on interviews with “ten journalists who have covered the war” for those networks.
SYRIA
Syrian media reported on Sunday evening that the country’s air defense systems had intercepted an Israeli missile strike. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights this attack targeted facilities in Syria’s Hama and Homs provinces. There’s no word yet on any casualties but these claims of “interception” are usually followed by reports indicating that at least some of the projectiles made it to the target. Earlier on Sunday the IDF reportedly attacked an aid truck attempting to enter Lebanon from Syria, wounding three aid workers.
LEBANON
The IDF began its current phase of intense airstrikes across Lebanon on September 23, and rarely has a day gone by since then in which that day’s strikes have not been described as “the heaviest yet.” As happened more gradually in Gaza following October 7, the IDF’s initial performances of caution for civilian risk have given way to sustained and brutal bombardments of civilian areas (Hezbollah’s southern Beirut haunts in particular) and specifically civilian buildings, under the usual justification of “human shields” or the like. IDF strikes have expanded from southern Lebanon to eastern Lebanon to Beirut and now into northern Lebanon, where a strike reportedly killed a Hamas official in the Beddawi refugee camp on Saturday. Of the more than 2000 Lebanese people killed by Israeli fire since October 7, according to Lebanese health officials, over half (more than 1400 people) have been killed in the past two weeks, give or take.
In other items:
One round of IDF airstrikes, in southern Beirut’s Dahiyah neighborhood on Friday, probably killed senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine. This is significant in that Safieddine was generally regarded as the most likely successor to his cousin, former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, whom the Israelis killed late last month. There’s been no confirmation of his death but he was apparently in Dahiyah at the time of the strike and has reportedly been out of contact since then.
In southern Lebanon, meanwhile, the IDF’s ground invasion doesn’t appear to have advanced beyond cross-border raiding as yet. That may be because Hezbollah is continuing to put up heavy resistance despite its leadership losses.
The Biden administration, which fully supports what the Israeli government is doing to Lebanon, is reportedly hoping to seize on this moment with Hezbollah under pressure to orchestrate the election of a new Lebanese president. According to Axios’s Barak Ravid one administration favorite is Lebanese military commander Joseph Aoun, who to be clear is no relation to former president (and military commander before that) Michel Aoun. It’s unclear how many Lebanese political parties would want to be seen assisting the US and Israel in installing their preferred president under the circumstances, but I’m sure the experts in the Biden administration have a better handle on the nuances of Lebanese politics than a mere outsider like me.
IRAN
It seems increasingly likely that Iranian Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani was also caught in the airstrike that may have killed Safieddine on Thursday. According to Reuters, Qaani was known to have been in Lebanon and thought to have been in Dahiyah when the strike occurred, and like Safieddine he’s been incommunicado ever since. Qaani’s death would be another blow for the Iranian government to absorb, though he is/was decidedly not as consequential a figure as his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani. I find it hard to believe that the Iranians would extend their most recent back-and-forth with Israel over his death, but in that respect much depends on the scope of Israel’s forthcoming attack.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Pakistani news outlet Geo News is reporting that at least one person was killed and ten more wounded in an explosion near Karachi Airport on Sunday. The Baluch Liberation Army has claimed responsibility for what it says was a car bombing targeting Chinese nationals. The BLA opposes Chinese infrastructure projects in Baluchistan province and frequently attacks Chinese individuals. On Saturday, meanwhile, the Pakistani military reported the deaths of six soldiers in a clash with militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province overnight. Pakistani forces killed six militants in that engagement and two more in a separate incident in another part of the province. As far as I know authorities have not identified the militants.
Elsewhere, supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan have reportedly been clashing with police near Islamabad, leaving at least 80 police officers injured since Friday according to Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi. The protesters are marching on the Pakistani capital to demand, as you’ve probably already guessed, Khan’s release from prison. Organizers deny using force against police.
INDIA
Authorities in India’s Chhattisgarh state reported on Saturday that a “nine-hour firefight” the previous day had left at least 31 Maoist Naxalite rebels dead. An Indian army unit apparently surrounded a group of rebel fighters in the state’s Abujhmad forest region on Thursday, triggering the battle. There are no reports of casualties among Indian soldiers.
JAPAN
New Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru took office on Tuesday apologizing for recent corruption scandals that have rocked the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and promising to “bolster” Japan’s national security. On the latter note, Ishiba talked in his introductory remarks about building a “strategic, mutually beneficial relationship” with China while also strengthening defense ties with the US and South Korea. One thing notably absent from his speech was any mention of his long-standing calls for a) greater “equity” in the US-Japan military alliance and b) the formation of an “Asian NATO,” though Responsible Statecraft’s Walter Hatch wonders if those views might not eventually become irksome for Washington.
AFRICA
TUNISIA
Vote counting is underway in Sunday’s Tunisian presidential election, but exit polling indicates that incumbent Kais Saied is going to win a landslide reelection with around 89 percent of the vote. Normally I wouldn’t place all that much stock in exit polling, but since this is a fake election anyway I think it’s fair to conclude that Saied will make sure to give himself enough votes to win big. Turnout was low, befitting a sham election, with exit polls pointing toward something just shy of 28 percent.
NIGERIA
World Politics Review’s Afolabi Adekaiyaoja argues that Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is exacerbating, rather than overcoming, his country’s internal divisions:
There are several reasons for Tinubu’s failure so far. First, he has continued the practice of his predecessor, former President Muhammadu Buhari, of making Cabinet and administration appointments informed by the politics of Nigeria’s regional and ethnic identities. While Buhari was accused of being biased toward his northern base, Tinubu has been similarly accused of concentrating key posts in the hands of political figures from the southwest, where his influence is strongest. This has fueled pre-existing resentments over perceptions that the fruits of the country’s wealth are not equally distributed, but rather go to rewarding the larger ethnic groups that have representatives in power.
Second, Tinubu’s approach has also created a class divide, with the poorest Nigerians bearing the brunt of his belt-tightening economic policies while the wealthiest reap the rewards. In particular, the impact of his poorly managed removal of the fuel subsidy immediately upon taking office in May 2023 has disproportionately affected the least affluent segments of the country. Tinubu’s message has been to call on all Nigerians to sacrifice now in order to reap dividends in the future. Yet, he appointed the largest Cabinet in the country’s history, further burdening already strained public finances, while a range of controversies over spending—from revelations of costly foreign travel by the first lady to complaints about unnecessary budgetary items—have given the impression that this is a government for the privileged few.
ETHIOPIA
AFP is reporting that “Ethiopian army forces have deployed in large numbers in the past fortnight to Amhara state” in a new operation against Amhara’s rebellious Fano militia. An anonymous “security source” spoke of “many arrests” over the past two weeks of provincial officials “suspected of collusion with the Fano.” Amnesty International has reported “mass arbitrary arrests” in Amhara in recent days. AFP speculates that a battle between the militia and Ethiopian security forces last month may have sparked this new crackdown.
MAURITIUS
The UK and Mauritian governments agreed on Thursday to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands archipelago from the former to the latter, ending a dispute that’s lingered since Mauritius gained independence from the UK in 1968. Well, sort of ending it, at least.
The Chagos had been part of successive French and British colonial administrations until London cleaved the archipelago off in 1968. That enabled the UK and US (mostly the US) to construct a major military base on the largest of the Chagos islands, Diego Garcia, expelling hundreds of Indigenous Chagossian islanders in the process. The reason I say this agreement “sort of” ends the dispute is because it doesn’t do much to resolve the Chagossians’ grievances over their expulsion and in fact it actually affirms UK sovereignty over Diego Garcia for at least the next 99 years. It does create a fund to help displaced Chagossians resettle on other islands, but that seems like a poor substitute in terms of compensation, assuming it actually comes into being.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The New York Times reports on a cargo vessel, the MV Ruby, that has been parked off the UK coast for several days with damage to its hull and propeller. That damage has prevented it from continuing on to Africa as planned, and the ship has been denied permission to dock at ports across northern Europe. Why, you ask? Because it’s carrying some 20,000 tons of Russian ammonium nitrate fertilizer and European authorities are worried that it may be a floating bomb. As far as I know there is no evidence to support this seemingly paranoid fear apart from “Russia Bad.” Personally I’d be more worried about the ship sustaining additional damage that could cause it to start spilling its cargo into the water, but what do I know?
UKRAINE
The Ukrainian military withdrew from the tactically significant town of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast on Wednesday. Russian forces moved in to seize the town a couple of days later, which helps them secure an important rail line from Crimea from Ukrainian attack. Its capture may help the Russians unwind whatever remains of the minor advance the Ukrainians made during last year’s failed counteroffensive. The Ukrainians are now claiming that their withdrawals from places like Vuhledar don’t just represent a loss of territory—they’re actually part of a new strategy of “trading space for Russian losses.” The aim is to make the Russians pay as high a price as possible for their conquests in an attempt to overcome Ukraine’s clear deficiencies in a war of attrition. It very much remains to be seen whether this can be successful.
AUSTRIA
As expected, Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) “won” last Sunday’s parliamentary election but, at around 29 percent of the vote, finished well shy of a majority. Consequently there is a very real chance that the FPÖ will find itself in the opposition despite its first place finish. Current Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, whose right-wing People’s Party came in second, quickly reiterated a campaign promise not to form a coalition with the FPÖ, which seemingly blocks the party’s one path to power. Instead, the likeliest outcome seems to be Nehammer forming a coalition with the third-place Social Democratic Party and one other party. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl on Saturday publicly urged rival parties to respect the results of the vote and not form a “coalition of losers,” which is practically confirmation that his party is going to wind up out of government.
AMERICAS
MEXICO
New Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum officially took office on Tuesday, succeeding Andrés Manuel López Obrador and becoming the first woman and first Jewish person to serve as Mexico’s head of state. I don’t have anything profound to say about this and we’re running out of space in tonight’s newsletter, but it did happen while I was on break and I figured I should note it.
HAITI
Haitian militants swarmed through the town of Pont-Sondé in western Haiti’s Artibonite department on Thursday, killing at least 70 people and displacing some 6270 more. Authorities say that security forces were able to regain control of the area, though whether that was through their own efforts or because the gangs chose to move on is unclear. Haiti’s National Human Rights Defense Network (RNDDH) is suggesting that the true death toll was higher than the official figure. The attack was shocking enough to prompt Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille to leave the country in search of aid over the weekend. He’s traveling to the UAE and Kenya to appeal for more international support.
UNITED STATES
Finally, there has been a flurry of reporting over the past several days whose collective effect is to show how shambolic and malicious the Biden administration’s handling of the situation in Gaza has been over the past year. I’m going to share some of that reporting over the course of this week, starting tonight with a Reuters investigation showing just how early on the administration knew that Israel’s Gaza retaliation was turning into a campaign of genocidal violence:
As Israel pounded northern Gaza with air strikes last October and ordered the evacuation of more than a million Palestinians from the area, a senior Pentagon official delivered a blunt warning to the White House.
The mass evacuation would be a humanitarian disaster and could violate international law, leading to war crime charges against Israel, Dana Stroul, then the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, wrote in an Oct. 13 email to senior aides to President Joe Biden. Stroul was relaying an assessment by the International Committee of the Red Cross that had left her “chilled to the bone,” she wrote.
As the Gaza war nears its first anniversary and the Middle East teeters on the brink of a wider war, Stroul’s email and other previously unreported communications show the Biden administration’s struggle to balance internal concerns over rising deaths in Gaza with its public support for Jerusalem following the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 people.
Reuters reviewed three sets of email exchanges between senior U.S. administration officials, dated Oct. 11 to 14, just days into the crisis. The fighting has led to more than 40,000 deaths in Gaza and spurred U.S. protests led by Arab-Americans and Muslim activists.
The emails, which haven’t been reported before, reveal alarm early on in the State Department and Pentagon that a rising death toll in Gaza could violate international law and jeopardize U.S. ties in the Arab world. The messages also show internal pressure in the Biden administration to shift its messaging from showing solidarity with Israel to including sympathy for Palestinians and the need to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
They knew where this was headed less than a week after the October 7 attacks and they did nothing to stop it. In fact, they’ve done much to enable it.
Thank you Derek!!
Good to have you back Derek