World roundup: May 30 2024
World roundup: May 30 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
May 30, 1431: The 19 year old (give or take) Joan of Arc is burned at the stake for heresy. After helping shepherd Charles VII to the French throne in 1429, Joan was captured while accompanying an army sent to relieve the English-Burgundian siege of Compiègne in May 1430. The Burgundians transferred her to English custody, and despite several French attempts to rescue her she was placed on trial for heresy in January 1431. Despite a lack of evidence and amid heavy English interference in what was supposed to be a Church process, Joan was found guilty.
May 30, 1913: The Treaty of London brings the First Balkan War to an end. The victorious Balkan League and the “Great Powers” (Austria-Hungary, Britain, Germany, Italy, and Russia) dictated the terms, which gave Crete to Greece and ceded every remaining Ottoman European territory to the Balkan League, except for the European environs of Istanbul and the territory of an independent Albania whose exact borders were to be determined by the “Powers.” The treaty satisfied almost none of the parties, particularly over the issue of dividing formerly Ottoman Macedonia. An especially frustrated Bulgarian government wound up attacking Serbia and Greece on June 29, kicking off the Second Balkan War.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Séamus Malekafzali highlights the inconsistencies in the Israeli military’s multiple attempts to explain and/or justify the airstrike that caused Sunday’s tent camp massacre, and what this incident says about the Gaza campaign overall:
The IDF had struck refugee tents before, even those which were located inside the humanitarian zone that it had unilaterally said existed in the Strip. But the scenes emerging from Rafah, some describing it as some of the worst of the war, forced Israel onto the back foot as it had been forced to do earlier in the war. Israeli diplomats jumped wildly from position to position, with some insisting on the precision and righteousness of the attack only hours later to talk about the tragedy of civilian casualties once Prime Minister Netanyahu came out to declare that this strike was somehow a mistake.
Maps of the humanitarian zone were suddenly changed to make the strike’s location unambiguously outside of it, some Israeli spokespeople attempted to claim there were both no tents in the area, and phone calls were released by the IDF supposedly of two Gazans saying the explosion was actually caused by a Hamas ammunition dump going off, despite Israel also telling the US that shrapnel from the blast impacted a fuel tank, causing the fire.
This cacophony of deception and obfuscation is all too familiar to those who remember the discussions that followed strikes and assaults on hospitals in Gaza last year. This miasma functions as a critical support system to Israel, buying it time by shifting focus away from the crime itself to discussions of what precisely happened, but it is also a critical burden, giving airtime to the idea that Israel may not be the most moral army in the world, and that its officials should not be believed unquestionably. It is this constant push and pull that helps illustrate the grave juncture that Israel sits at at this moment, one whose contradictions have been heightened and expedited by the attacks of October 7th.
The best the Israelis have been able to do since Sunday is “our bombs didn’t cause the fire, they caused additional explosions that then caused the fire,” which still makes them responsible for the deaths. And that’s after they apparently went to the trouble of redrawing their own maps to exclude the blast site from the evacuation zone.
Along similar lines, Haaretz reported on Thursday that it learned two years ago of the Israeli government’s years-long campaign to undermine and intimidate the International Criminal Court—the one The Guardian, +972 Magazine, and Local Call revealed earlier this week—but was blocked from publishing the story by the Israeli government. The Haaretz reporter, Gur Megiddo, writes that Israeli security officials told him that if he were to publish the story or even share what he’d learned, he “would suffer the consequences and get to know the interrogation rooms of the Israeli security authorities from the inside.” This revelation comes a day after Haaretz published a report on the Israeli detention of a Palestinian man named Bassem Tamimi for reasons that I’m not sure authorities have ever explained. It’s hard to know since much of the piece is redacted, because The Middle East’s Only Democracy™ wouldn’t allow its details to be made public.
Elsewhere, the Israeli government has reportedly given food distributors in Gaza the green light to resume purchases of food from Israel and the West Bank as they had done prior to October 7. This could supplement humanitarian relief efforts, particularly inasmuch as those efforts are in the process of collapsing thanks to the Israeli military (IDF) campaign in Rafah. This is a step that aid agencies have been asking the Israelis to take for months, in large part because it could allow fresh foods into Gaza where the relief organizations by necessity have to deal exclusively in things like grains and canned goods. With all of that in mind, the actual impact of this decision on Gaza’s famine is likely to be limited. The amount of food that can realistically be brought into Gaza this way is small, subject to the same limitations that humanitarian aid faces and to the limitations of wholesalers and consumers in Gaza to purchase it.
The Slovenian government on Thursday announced that it has approved a proposal to recognize Palestine as a state. That decision will now be put before the National Assembly for ratification, with a vote scheduled to take place on Tuesday.
SYRIA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened on Thursday to launch a new invasion of Syria if Kurdish authorities proceed with a plan to hold local elections on June 11. Erdoğan views this potential election as part of a scheme to set up a de facto Kurdish state in those parts of northern and eastern Syria where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces group is in control. I haven’t seen any reporting to suggest that the Turkish military is ramping up for a major operation but that certainly doesn’t mean there’s no planning taking place.
YEMEN
The US and UK militaries reportedly carried out airstrikes against Houthi targets late Thursday in response to recent Houthi attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea region. According to the AP they hit at least 13 sites including launch and command and control facilities.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
A new report from the NGO SwissAid heavily implicates the UAE in African gold smuggling:
Each year, as much as $35 billion worth of gold produced by artisanal and small-scale mining in Africa — the world’s top gold producing continent — goes undeclared and then smuggled out of its borders.
The vast majority of it goes to the United Arab Emirates, according to research published by the independent Switzerland-based aid and advocacy organization SwissAid.
“More than 435 tonnes of gold was smuggled out of Africa in 2022, representing more than a tonne a day,” the organization’s report, published Thursday, wrote. One tonne refers to a metric ton, which is equivalent to 2,204 pounds.
The smuggled 435 metric tons carry a value of $30.7 billion based on gold prices on May 1, 2024, the report detailed, adding: “The overwhelming majority of this gold was imported into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) before being re-exported to other countries.”
Once the gold is exported by the UAE it becomes a UAE product, and thus can be legally traded on global markets despite its illicit origins.
IRAN
The registration period has opened for anyone hoping to run in Iran’s June 28 special election to replace recently deceased President Ebrahim Raisi. In terms of candidates with any sort of public profile, I believe former Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili has already registered but there will presumably be more prominent figures stepping forward. It makes little sense to try to handicap the election until the five day registration period is over, and it’s better to wait until the Guardian Council screens the hopefuls and we know who will actually be on the ballot.
ASIA
INDIA
Voting in India’s lengthy general election will wrap up on Saturday, with results expected next week and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party generally expected to emerge victorious again. At Responsible Statecraft, Macalester College’s Andrew Latham and Will Kochel suggest that the recent tightening of US-Indian relations under Modi is likely to have its limits:
It is undeniable that Modi’s foreign policy choices are motivated by great power desires. India is the world’s most populous country and in a position to surge economically. A consumer boom and wage growth are likely incoming, with plenty of room for industries to meet the needs of the growing consumer class. Its population size will create a powerhouse working class to power growing markets for emerging technologies, clean energy, and businesses seeking new supply chains outside of China.
Additionally, India is increasingly trying to position itself as the voice of the Global South, which often puts it in opposition to American and European interests. India has one of the strongest militaries in Asia and the ability to project power regionally. The Indian Ocean’s name is no coincidence. India will not give up regional hegemony without a fight.
To achieve these goals, India cannot play second fiddle to America forever. It is increasingly clear that India’s strategic approach is to keep its options open so it can take advantage of whatever side best suits its interests.
MYANMAR
A new report from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advisory group estimates that Myanmar’s ruling junta has “lost complete authority over townships covering 86% of the country's territory that are home to 67% of the population” amid the ongoing rebel offensive that began back in October. That territory includes most of the country’s internationally recognized borders. This is a stunning turn of events that calls into question the junta’s ability to survive and may even call into question Myanmar’s long-term territorial integrity. The International Crisis Group, in another recent report, argued that many of the ethnic-based rebel groups that have been at the forefront of the offensive are “well on the way to establishing autonomous statelets” in the territories they now control.
CHINA
The Wall Street Journal lays out the evidence that US sanctions have now, largely because of Chinese economic strength, become self-defeating:
Western sanctions and export controls were meant to subdue America’s enemies, leveraging the power of the dollar to strong-arm governments into submission without the bloodshed of military force. They have inadvertently birthed a global shadow economy tying together democracy’s chief foes, with Washington’s primary adversary, China, at the center.
Unprecedented finance and trade restrictions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, China and other authoritarian regimes have squeezed those economies by curbing access to Western goods and markets. But Beijing has increasingly foiled those U.S.-led efforts by bolstering trade ties, according to Western officials and customs data. The bloc of sanctioned nations collectively now have the economy of scale to shield them from Washington’s financial warfare, trading everything from drones and missiles to gold and oil.
AFRICA
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted two Central African firms allegedly linked to the Russian Wagner Group private military company. The US Treasury Department accused the firms of having “advanced Russia’s destabilizing activities at the expense of the Central African Republic’s sovereignty.” At least one of the firms appears to have been involved in illicit mining operations. The sanctions freeze any US-based assets belonging to either firm and bar US entities or individuals from interacting with them.
SOUTH SUDAN
The United Nations Security Council voted on Thursday to extend its South Sudanese arms embargo for at least another year. In the extension resolution, the council cited “the continued intensification of violence, including intercommunal violence, prolonging the political, security, economic and humanitarian crisis in most parts of the country.” The South Sudanese government has been demanding that the embargo be rescinded and it has support from several UNSC members including Russia, which nevertheless opted to abstain rather than veto the extension.
UGANDA
The Biden administration on Thursday also blacklisted four Ugandan officials, including parliament speaker Anita Among, for alleged “significant corruption.” It also blacklisted a senior Ugandan general, Peter Elwelu, for alleged “involvement in gross violations of human rights” including extrajudicial executions. All are subject to visa bans.
SOUTH AFRICA
We’re still a few days from having a full vote count in South Africa’s general election, but the partial count points to the African National Congress losing its parliamentary majority, as had been expected. At last check the ANC was winning a bit under 43 percent of the vote, with the opposition Democratic Alliance well back at around 24 percent. MK, a new party led by former president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma, is currently in third place at around 10 percent with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters party slightly behind it. Either or both of those parties could be potential ANC coalition partners.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Governments across Europe seem to be convinced that a series of recent acts of arson and vandalism can be traced back to Russia:
Security services around Europe are on alert to a potential new weapon of Russia’s war – arson and sabotage – after a spate of mystery fires and attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics, Germany and the UK.
When a fire broke out in Ikea in Vilnius in Lithuania this month, few passed any remarks until the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, suggested it could have been the work of a foreign saboteur.
Investigators have already alleged potential Russian involvement in an arson attack in east London, an inferno that destroyed the largest shopping mall in Poland, a sabotage attempt in Bavaria in Germany and antisemitic graffiti in Paris.
While there is no evidence that any of these incidents across the continent are coordinated, security services believe they could be part of an attempt by Moscow to destabilise the west, which has backed Ukraine.
I’m no expert in these matters, but the “while there is no evidence” bit seems fairly significant to me. Just a thought.
UKRAINE
The Biden administration has reportedly acquiesced to the Ukrainian government’s request to use US-made munitions to attack targets inside Russia—but only in a limited fashion. At present it seems the Ukrainians will only be permitted to attack targets that are involved somehow in the Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast and are positioned near the Ukrainian border. This is not the blanket permission Ukraine has been after but I suspect it’s a step toward it. The Kharkiv offensive has slowed a bit but it hasn’t stopped, and Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed via social media on Thursday that the Russian military is moving additional forces into the province which could indicate that they’re preparing for another major push.
There’s a new interview at The New Yorker with the Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot that I think conveys how precarious Ukraine’s situation really is, so if you haven’t already seen it I recommend clicking through and giving it a read. For example, here’s Massicot’s assessment of how well positioned Russia and Ukraine are over a potential long term conflict:
The Russian recruiting numbers are pretty fantastical. They’re saying that they can recruit thirty thousand people a month. There are so many different levels in that system where people will report false information for various reasons. I don’t have a lot of faith in those numbers. But what I do know is that, whatever they are getting, it’s enough to replenish what they’re losing, and to keep the pressure on. So Russia does have some advantages here in manpower. And it does have a defense-industrial base that’s prepared to crank for the long term.
If you look at the Ukrainian side, I don’t know how much longer they’re going to be able to hold this position that they have right now, where they’re saying, “This is an existential war.” But if you look at the policies, in terms of manpower or the economy or just the daily life of the citizens, Kyiv is trying to keep life as normal as possible for as much of the population as they can. There is a discrepancy there. And, as these dynamics continue to become choppy and undefined in the future, I’m not sure how long Kyiv can keep holding them in this cognitive dissonance.
AMERICAS
PARAGUAY
Jacobin’s Klas Lundström argues that former Paraguayan President Horacio Cartes is amassing power in both the political and criminal worlds to make himself Paraguay’s de facto ruler:
In post-Stroessner Paraguay, every president is limited to a single five-year term. Cartes tried to force through a second — but failed. But he managed to speed up Paraguay’s neoliberal turn after Lugo’s “soft years.” He still today leads the ruling Colorado Party and — various sources tell me — “owns three-quarters of congress due to bribes, threats, and exchanged favors.”
“Cartes’s position in Paraguayan politics is unparalleled,” underlines Canese Antúnez, also because “it takes place in the name of democracy.” “The concentration of power that Cartes has, the absolute majority in Congress, control of justice and the Prosecutor’s Office, in addition to the executive branch and most of the local and national governments, is unprecedented since [former dictator Alfredo] Stroessner’s demise.”
Even right-wing intellectuals, faithful to the official narrative of “structure” and “stability” provided to Paraguay by the Colorado Party oligarchy, admit that Cartes has steered the ship out of control. Emanuele Ottolenghi, a political scientist at the neoconservative think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, states that Paraguay’s current president, Santiago Peña, owes his electoral victory in 2023 — and political future — to his “Colorado ally” Cartes.
Cartes “is not just his political mentor,” Ottolenghi concludes in an analysis. “First and foremost, he is, as they say in Spanish, ‘El Patrón’ — ‘The Boss.’”
UNITED STATES
Finally, Alexander Smith, a contractor with the US Agency for International Development, resigned earlier this week over the Biden administration’s handling of the situation in Gaza. According to The Guardian, he was given the choice of resignation or firing “after preparing a presentation on maternal and child mortality among Palestinians, which was cancelled at the last minute by USAID leadership last week.” In his resignation letter, addressed to USAID director Samantha Power, Smith wrote that “I cannot do my job in an environment in which specific people cannot be acknowledged as fully human, or where gender and human rights principles apply to some, but not to others, depending on their race.”
Smith’s resignation came one day before State Department official Stacy Gilbert resigned, also over Gaza. Her resignation was reportedly due to her disagreement with a State Department report that found that the Israeli government has not prevented humanitarian aid from getting into the territory. But in comments to HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed, Gilbert went further than that and argued that the administration hadn’t just gotten the report wrong, but that it had lied in order to manufacture its desired conclusion:
Veteran State Department official Stacy Gilbert quit the agency because the Biden administration is “twisting the facts” to make a “patently, demonstrably, quantifiably false” claim that Israel is not blocking humanitarian aid for Gaza in order to justify his administration’s continued military support to the country, she told HuffPost on Wednesday in the first interview since her resignation.
Gilbert, who has over 20 years experience in U.S. policy toward global crises and conflicts, said she is convinced Israel’s U.S.-backed operation in the Palestinian enclave is violating international humanitarian law — particularly by restricting supplies for its civilian population. She added she sincerely believed President Joe Biden was serious about ensuring Israel complied with international and U.S. laws that shield civilians in war zones, but she had experienced deep disappointment that led her to conclude it was futile to continue trying to improve America’s policy in Gaza from inside the government.
Gilbert told her colleagues she was quitting May 10, immediately after the Biden administration released a report on Israeli conduct on which she had worked. Referring to that assessment, which Biden had promised would probe Israeli compliance with American and international law, Gilbert told HuffPost: “It just doesn’t matter. … We could have AI write the report because it is not informed by reality or context or the informed opinions of subject matter experts.”