World roundup: May 27-28 2024
Stories from Iran, North Korea, Haiti, and elsewhere
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
May 27, 1644: A Qing army under the Shunzhi Emperor’s regent, Dorgon, along with a Ming Dynasty army under general Wu Sangui, defeats the forces of the Shun Dynasty under Emperor Li Zicheng at the Battle of Shanhai Pass. During the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, the Manchurian Qing began to threaten China’s northern borders, while rebels under Li attacked the Ming from within the empire. Wu commanded one of the gates through the Great Wall, and faced with threats from either side he opted to allow the Qing through the gate to deal with Li. Wu initially seems to have meant for the Qing to help him restore the Ming Dynasty once the rebels were dispatched, but instead Dorgon continued on to Beijing, toppled the Ming, and claimed the Mandate of Heaven for the Shunzhi Emperor.
May 27, 1942: In “Operation Anthropoid,” two Czechoslovakian soldiers successfully assassinate the head of the Reich Main Security Office and the Nazi governor of Bohemia and Moravia, Reinhard Heydrich, in Prague. The soldiers and their fellow conspirators had been trained and advised by operatives from Britain’s Special Operations Executive. They initially believed the attack had failed, but Heydrich later succumbed either to his wounds or to an infection. By some estimates the Nazis killed roughly 5000 people during the investigation/collective punishment campaign that ensued.
May 28, 621: With only around 10,000 soldiers at his disposal, prince Li Shimin of the nascent Tang Dynasty defeats an army of the rival Xia regime that was at least ten times that size at the Battle of Hulao. Considered by some historians to be one of the most important battles ever fought, Hulao was the decisive engagement of the civil wars that followed the collapse of the Sui Dynasty and Li’s victory ensured that the Tang would emerge as the new ruling dynasty of China.
May 28, 1905: A Japanese fleet decisively defeats a Russian fleet at the Battle of Tsushima, sinking 21 Russian vessels and capturing seven more while losing only three of its own. Tsushima is noteworthy in that it was the first naval battle fought between two fleets built around modern battleships using the telegraph for communications. It’s also noteworthy for the overwhelming nature of the Japanese victory, which brought the Russo-Japanese War to an end on Japanese terms, marked the beginnings of Japan’s imperial expansion, and caused a wave of “Yellow Peril” discourse to sweep through the West.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
There are several items to cover here:
The Israeli airstrike that was just being reported as I was wrapping up Sunday night’s newsletter turns out to have been both worse and more impactful than it initially seemed. The Israeli military (IDF) struck either in or near the Tel al-Sultan refugee camp in southern Gaza’s Rafah region late Sunday, sparking a fire in a tent encampment in nearby al-Mawasi that had been set up for people fleeing the IDF’s Rafah ground assault. The attack killed at least 45 people, many of them children and many in ways too gruesome to recount here, and wounded scores more. The attack generated a wave of international outrage, partly due to the details but also partly because it came just a couple of days after the International Court of Justice ordered the IDF to cease its Rafah operation.
The Israeli government says it was targeting a Hamas facility and that the strike killed two of the group’s senior officials including its West Bank “chief of staff.” It’s trotted out a handful of excuses to try to justify the civilian casualties, and its current effort seems to be “it wasn’t our fault because our very small bomb triggered secondary explosions (presumably from a nearby arms depot) and those secondary explosions caused the fire.” I’m not sure they teach cause and effect in Israeli military academies but the way it works is that even under that scenario the IDF is still responsible for the casualties. And that’s assuming you believe the claim that it used a small, targeted munition in the strike.
These attempts at justification have been couched in language about what a “tragedy” Sunday’s incident was and the great lengths to which the IDF has gone to protect civilians. Those claims would carry significantly more weight if it had not continued to attack the same encampment. Palestinian civil defense officials say another IDF attack on the camp killed at least 21 people on Tuesday. Israeli officials are denying this report.
A short distance east of Tel al-Sultan, Israeli tanks have apparently advanced into central Rafah. Among other things the IDF is now threatening two of Rafah’s medical facilities, shutting down Kuwaiti Hospital via airstrike and damaging the Indonesian Field Hospital while trapping staff and patients inside. The United Nations now estimates that some 1 million Palestinians have fled Rafah due to the Israeli operation, with their humanitarian conditions now uncertain (though the World Health Organization says the operation is having a “dire” health impact). None of this, of course, is violating the Biden administration’s “red line.”
At some point late Sunday or early Monday, Egyptian and Israeli forces reportedly engaged in a shootout at or near the Rafah border checkpoint that left at least one Egyptian border guard dead. Tensions at Rafah have been high since the IDF seized the Gazan side of the checkpoint and the Egyptian government closed it from the Egyptian side, but the circumstances around this specific incident are still unclear. Both governments say they’re investigating.
The Irish, Norwegian, and Spanish governments all formally recognized the state of Palestine on Tuesday. They bring the total number of countries that recognize Palestine to 146, out of the UN’s 193 members (that number will soon be at least 147, as the Slovenian government now says it plans to recognize Palestine next month). Israeli officials have thrown a days-long tantrum over the recognition since the plan was announced last week, to which Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares promised an unspecified but presumably just rhetorical joint response on Tuesday. The Israeli Foreign Ministry on Tuesday ordered Spain’s Jerusalem consulate to stop providing services to Palestinians, which could draw some sort of tangible reaction from Madrid though I haven’t seen anything yet.
On the humanitarian front, the US Defense Department announced on Tuesday that it is suspending operations at the Joe Biden Memorial Pier for at least the next week. Unexpectedly rough seas have apparently triggered a series of what The Washington Post termed “mishaps in which four U.S. military vessels were beached, one U.S. service member was critically injured, and sections of the structure were ripped free.” The damaged sections will need to be rebuilt on shore before the pier can be reopened.
The organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court over the casualties the IDF has caused among journalists in Gaza. Over 100 reporters have been killed in Gaza since October 7, and RSF says it has “reasonable grounds for thinking that some of these journalists were deliberately killed and that the others were the victims of deliberate IDF attacks against civilians.” This could feed into the ICC’s investigation into Gaza war crimes.
SYRIA
For the first time since Saudi Arabia broke off relations with Bashar al-Assad’s government in 2012, a planeload of Syrian nationals left Damascus for Jeddah on Tuesday ahead of the annual Hajj. The resumption of direct flights for that pilgrimage, which will take place in mid-June this year, is the latest indication of Syria’s readmission into the Arab world and comes just days after the Saudis appointed their first ambassador to Syria since cutting ties.
LEBANON
An Israeli airstrike perilously close to the entrance of a hospital in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil on Monday killed at least two people and wounded at least eight others. The target was apparently someone on a motorcycle passing by the facility but one of the deaths and I assume all of those who were wounded involved people connected somehow to the hospital.
YEMEN
Similar to the Syrian story above, direct flights for pilgrims from the Yemeni city of Sanaa to Jeddah were set to resume on Tuesday for the first time since Saudi Arabia intervened in the Yemeni civil war in 2015. Sanaa’s airport has been closed by a Saudi no-fly zone for much of that time, but it did reopen for one weekly commercial flight per week to Jordan last year as the Saudis and the Houthi movement slowly progress toward some sort of accord. According to Reuters there are plans for 44 Sanaa-Jeddah flights in the coming weeks that will accommodate some 8200 pilgrims.
Elsewhere, the Houthis attacked a cargo vessel off of Yemen’s Red Sea coast on Tuesday and appear to have damaged it enough that it was taking on water, according to Reuters. The ship is apparently still operating and its crew is sailing to an unspecified “nearby port” to assess the damage.
IRAN
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program finds that Tehran is now stockpiling 142.1 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, which if further enriched to weapons grade (90 percent or above, a relatively easy process) would be enough for a bit over three nuclear warheads. That’s an increase of around 20 kg from the IAEA’s previous report back in February. Overall Iran is holding 6201.3 kg of enriched uranium—most at the low level required for reactor fuel—which is 675.8 kg more than it had in February. Iranian officials are still barring IAEA inspectors from monitoring sensitive nuclear sites, as they have been since September. These findings are fueling an effort by the French and UK governments to censure Iran at the IAEA’s board meeting next month, but according to The Wall Street Journal the Biden administration is pressuring them to drop that effort in light of the current volatility in the Middle East generally and in Iranian politics specifically following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death.
On that subject, the Iranian parliament reelected Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf as speaker on Tuesday. I mention this because Qalibaf is a perennial presidential candidate and has been rumored as a potential candidate in the June 28 special election to replace Raisi, but it’s now possible he’ll be content with maintaining his speakership. There are rumors within Iran that former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, who ran for president in 2021 but was rejected in the Guardian Council’s screening process, has secured a commitment from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that he will be allowed to run this time around if he so chooses. Larijani has a name recognition edge over most of the other plausible candidates but whether that would translate into electoral strength is unclear. His election would suggest a shift toward more diplomatic engagement with the West a la former President Hassan Rouhani.
ASIA
GEORGIA
As expected, the Georgian parliament on Tuesday voted to override President Salome Zourabichvili’s veto of the “foreign agents” bill it passed earlier this month. The bill will become law in five days, assuming Zourabichvili doesn’t relent and sign it into law sooner. Western governments have criticized the measure, which opponents say will be used to suppress political dissent, with the European Union suggesting that its adoption is a setback for Georgia’s accession hopes.
PAKISTAN
Security forces engaged in at least three operations targeting insurgents in northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Monday that left a total of at least 23 militants and seven soldiers dead. The specific targets of these operations is unclear but given the location they were likely members of the Pakistani Taliban or one of its offshoots.
CHINA
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol hosted Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Seoul on Monday for the first trilateral summit involving leaders of those countries since 2019. They agreed in vague terms to increase economic ties and intensify other areas of collaboration but seem to have mostly steered around issues that would have been sensitive under the current New Cold War conditions in East Asia. They did discuss one fairly sensitive issue, North Korea, and even issued a joint statement following the summit that stressed the goal of “denuclearizing” the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang didn’t seem particularly receptive to that message, calling the statement “a grave political provocation.”
NORTH KOREA
In fairness, the North Korean government did celebrate the aforementioned summit by conducting its anticipated space launch. I don’t think that went over terribly well in South Korea or in Japan, where the government ordered precautionary evacuations in southern Okinawa in response. The launch, intended to put another spy satellite into orbit, failed when the rocket exploded during its initial stage. North Korean media is attributing the failure to a new “liquid oxygen and petroleum engine” used in this launch, though authorities are still reportedly investigating. That engine was presumably designed with Russian technical assistance and is broadly similar to the kinds of rockets employed by more advanced space programs (Russia, the US, China, etc.), so its use (even in a failed launch) represents a significant leap forward for the North Korean space (and possibly missile) program.
AFRICA
MALI
The Malian military says its forces repelled an attack by the al-Qaeda linked Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin group on a base in western Mali’s Koulikoro region on Sunday, killing “a large number of terrorists” and wounding “dozens” more. At least five Malian soldiers were also killed and dozens wounded.
NIGERIA
The AP reports that Nigerian authorities are attempting to squelch illicit mining operations:
Nigeria’s government is cracking down on illegal mining, making dozens of arrests of unlicensed miners since April for allegedly stealing the country’s lithium, a critical mineral used in batteries for electric vehicles, smartphones and power systems.
The recent arrests come as Nigeria seeks to regulate its mining operations of critical minerals, curb illegal activity and better benefit from its mineral resources. The clean energy transition, a shift away from coal, oil and gas and toward renewable energy and batteries has spiked global demand for lithium, tin and other minerals. Illegal mines are rife in the country’s fledgling industry as corruption among regulatory officials is common and the mineral deposits are located in remote areas with minimal government presence. Officials say profits from illicit mining practices have helped arm militia groups in the north of the county.
SOUTH AFRICA
The Washington Post reports on a spate of political violence in South Africa that is contributing to the ruling African National Congress’s struggles:
As South Africans head into national elections Wednesday, the country’s politics have been rocked by an epidemic of assassinations, including 40 recorded since the start of last year. While they have largely targeted local officials, politicians and activists, the killings appear set to affect the outcome of the national vote.
The killings have fostered a climate of lawlessness and government paralysis that have fueled voter anger, and the failure of the ruling African National Congress to stem the violence has been eroding the party’s popularity. National polls now show that the ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, is unlikely to gain a majority in the parliamentary elections for the first time since it came to power in 1994 after the end of apartheid, raising the prospect that the party will have to form a coalition government.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The Russian military claimed on Tuesday that its forces had seized two more Ukrainian villages, one in Kharkiv oblast and the other in Donetsk oblast. Russian forces also reportedly undertook several attacks in the vicinity of Kupiansk, a city in the eastern part of Kharkiv oblast, so that may become a new focal point for them.
Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday became the latest official to call on the Biden administration to relax its rules surrounding the use of US-made munitions by the Ukrainian military. During a visit to Bulgaria, Stoltenberg remarked to reporters that, in limiting the use of those munitions to targets inside the internationally-recognized borders of Ukraine, “you really reduce the ability of the Ukrainian forces to defend themselves” from Russian attack. Pressure is mounting on the administration to give Ukraine permission to strike targets in Russia with longer-range US weaponry. Precedent suggests that 1) the administration will eventually concede on this point, and 2) it won’t make much difference in the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday suggested that the use of US weapons in Russia would mark an “escalation” that could lead to “a global conflict,” but precedent also suggests that his rhetoric is at least partially bluster.
GERMANY
In case you missed it, Sam Huneke’s newest FX column situates the German government’s suppression of the pro-Palestine movement within Germany’s postwar development as what he calls a “militant democracy”:
To Americans accustomed to perceiving Germany as a country dedicated to fighting genocide and protecting democracy, then, its response to the occupation of Gaza has come as a shock. In the face of large anti-Zionist and pro-Palestinian protests, the country is busy repressing freedoms of assembly, association, and expression—freedoms at the very core of what it means to be a democracy. But these repressions, the laws on which they depend, and the country’s impregnable support for Israel are not new phenomena. Their roots stretch back to Germany’s birth in the ashes of World War II and the anxieties and prejudices of its founders.
NETHERLANDS
The emerging four-party, right-wing Dutch government appears to have resolved its prime minister problem by settling on the secretary-general of the Dutch Justice Ministry, Dick Schoof, as its candidate. Schoof is the former director of the Netherlands’ General Intelligence and Security Service. The parties hold a collective 88 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives and have already agreed on a coalition manifesto, so Schoof’s accession seems like a foregone conclusion barring any very unexpected complications. It remains to be seen whether Schoof, who presented himself to reporters on Tuesday as an independent, will be able to coexist with the coalition’s far right kingpin, Party for Freedom leader Geert Wilders.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Haiti’s transitional council has named a prime minister for the second time in about a month, though unlike the last one it looks like this appointment will actually stick. By a 6-1 vote the council on Tuesday approved former PM Garry Conille for the job. Conille was previously named PM in October 2011 but resigned the following February amid a falling out with then-President Michel Martelly and a number of cabinet ministers. His background is in international development work and prior to his first stint as PM he worked for several years at the UN, details that the council apparently considered desirable under Haiti’s present circumstances. Once a cabinet is in place the council’s primary job will become preparing for elections that are scheduled to take place in February 2026.
UNITED STATES
The Biden administration has appeared to rule out sanctioning the International Criminal Court over its investigation into war crimes in Gaza. There have been calls from US congresspersons for sanctions against ICC prosecutor Karim Khan over his declared intent to seek arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Administration officials had previously suggested they were open to the idea, but White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday that “we don't believe that sanctions against the ICC is the right approach here.”
Finally, another US official has resigned over the Biden administration’s handling of the humanitarian situation in Gaza:
A career State Department official involved in the Biden administration’s contentious debates over Israel’s conduct in Gaza resigned this week, citing disagreements with a recently published U.S. government report that claimed that Israel was not impeding humanitarian assistance to Gaza, two officials told The Washington Post.
The outgoing official, Stacy Gilbert, served in the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration. Gilbert sent an email to staff Tuesday explaining her view that the State Department was wrong to conclude that Israel had not obstructed humanitarian assistance to Gaza, officials who read the letter said.
The cause for resignation is unusual in that it speaks to internal dissent over a hotly disputed report that the Biden administration relied on to justify continuing to send billions of dollars of weapons to Israel.
Got to hand it to those Anthropoid fellas