World roundup: January 21 2025

Stories from Israel-Palestine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Colombia, and elsewhere

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TODAY IN HISTORY

January 21, 763: The still relatively new Abbasid Caliphate snuffs out an early Shiʿa uprising at the Battle of Bakhamra in what is now southern Iraq.

January 21, 1793: Having been found guilty of treason by the National Convention, French King Louis XVI—or Citizen Louis Capet, as he was known by this point—is executed by guillotine. His death marked what at the time surely seemed like the end of the French monarchy, though Napoleon and then the restored Bourbons had something to say about that. It also shocked even some fans of the French Revolution, and that shock may have contributed to the support for restoring the Bourbons when all was said and done.

A 1794 engraving of the scene by Isidore Stanislas Helman (Wikimedia Commons)

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

Syrian security forces killed at least six people during a “sweep” in western Homs province targeting “militias supporting” former President Bashar al-Assad, and possibly also “drug traffickers and smugglers” according to AFP. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that two of the victims were militants, but the other four were “civilians executed by local gunmen” who were accompanying the security personnel. Needless to say this is not going to calm fears that Syrian minority communities are being targeted for reprisal by the country’s new authorities.

The news is a bit more promising in northern Syria, where Reuters claims that negotiations to resolve tensions between Turkey and the Syrian Democratic Forces group are going better than the Turkish government’s hardline public statements might suggest. That doesn’t mean they’re on track for success, given how many sensitive political and military issues need to be ironed out. The new Syrian government has expressed a willingness to incorporate the SDF into its security apparatus, but caretaker Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra on Sunday rejected the SDF’s proposal to incorporate it in a single bloc. The SDF is reportedly hedging over suggestions that it should hand control over its prisons, which hold Islamic State jihadists, to the new Syrian authorities. These are thorny issues that won’t be resolved overnight, but if the negotiations themselves are trending in a positive direction that should at least forestall an escalation of conflict.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

After a flurry of last-minute haggling and public accusations about alleged violations, the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire deal did in fact come into effect on Sunday as planned. Well, almost as planned—it began three hours later than scheduled because of a logistical delay. It appears to be holding so far, with Sunday’s exchange of detainees scheduled to be followed by round two on Saturday and with the United Nations surging humanitarian aid into the territory to an extent that the Israeli military (IDF) would never had permitted absent the agreement. That said, while the onset of the ceasefire was understandably welcomed in Gaza there is clearly much to be done to simply bring the humanitarian situation up to the level of “livable,” let alone to begin actually rebuilding. Some of that work is incredibly grim, especially the need to comb through rubble to find the bodies of potentially thousands of people whose deaths have not yet been recorded.

And there may not be very much time in which to do it. As I noted last week the only part of this ceasefire that has become a material reality is its limited “first phase,” which will last six weeks and be followed either by a long-term cessation of hostilities or a return to violence. Right now the latter certainly seems more likely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is apparently telling anyone who will listen that he has no intention of letting this deal proceed beyond the first phase. US President Donald Trump told reporters during his first day on the job on Monday that he’s “not confident” that the ceasefire will last, and while Trump doesn’t really know what he’s talking about Marc Lynch does and he’s said pretty much the same thing in an interview with Foreign Affairs. That said, negotiations on the “second phase” haven’t even begun so it’s too soon to make any definitive pronouncements.

(There are longer term concerns, of course. Trump is waxing fondly about Gaza’s potential as prime beachfront real estate, which probably doesn’t bode well for the people living there. His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is floating a plan to relocate at least part of Gaza’s population to Indonesia during reconstruction, a “temporary” plan that would likely become permanent and that he apparently hasn’t bothered discussing with the Indonesian government. I’m not downplaying these things but I think “first things first” is probably the way to approach this process.)

In other items:

• The three days since the ceasefire began have laid bare something that I assume Netanyahu would rather not acknowledge, which is that 15 months of mostly unrelenting slaughter and immiseration haven’t destroyed Hamas or even particularly weakened its administrative control over Gaza. This raises the uncomfortable question of what all that slaughter achieved, though as I’ve argued before the killing is really the point. One could conclude from this that any change in Hamas’s status is going to have to come as the result of a negotiated settlement, as might result from forthcoming talks on the next phase of the ceasefire, or one could conclude that the Israeli government just hasn’t killed enough Palestinians yet. Guess which one Netanyahu is more likely to pick.

• As expected, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir quit Netanyahu’s coalition over the ceasefire. He was unable to convince any other party to quit with him, which means he lacks the votes to bring the coalition down even if he wanted to do so. Which it seems pretty clear he does not, given that he’s already planning to return to the fold when the violence resumes.

• Israeli occupation forces killed at least nine people in the West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday during another in what’s become a regular series of raids primarily focused on that region. Netanyahu’s office suggested that this raid marks the start of a more intensive West Bank operation, perhaps made possible by the Gaza ceasefire. The Palestinian Authority has also made Jenin a priority, ostensibly targeting Hamas and other rival groups. Meanwhile, Israeli settler mobs rampaged through villages across the West Bank late Monday, mostly under IDF protection. The attacks left at least 21 people wounded. In one incident an Israeli border police officer shot and wounded two settlers who’d attacked him near the city of Qalqilya. Details on that incident are very sparse.

• By the by, one of Trump’s executive orders on Monday reversed the Biden administration’s policy of sanctioning certain particularly violent settlers. That policy was entirely performative, but Trump’s decision to end it is indicative of where he’s likely to go on Israel-Palestine matters.

• IDF commander Herzi Halevi resigned on Tuesday, taking advantage of the ceasefire to assume some accountability for the failure to prevent the October 7 attacks. It’s been suggested that Halevi’s boss, Netanyahu, should similarly accept some accountability, but he’s insisted he couldn’t possibly do that until after the “war” is over. So he’s never going to let it end. Halevi’s last day on the job is scheduled to be March 6, the last day of the first phase of the ceasefire, and that may not be a coincidence. A “former senior Israeli official” told The Washington Post on Tuesday that Halevi knows Netanyahu won’t allow a second ceasefire phase, and he’s resigning partly in an act of protest.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

The US and Afghan governments have concluded the prisoner swap that was first reported earlier this month, or at least part of it. Under the deal, US authorities released Khan Mohammad, an Afghan national convicted in US court in 2008 on drug and terrorism charges. In return the Afghan government released US nationals Ryan Corbett, who’s been in Afghan custody since 2022, and William McKenty, whose circumstances seem to be largely unknown. There are still two US nationals in Afghan custody and Kabul is known to be pursuing the release of Guantánamo Bay detainee Muhammad Rahim, so there may be space for further negotiation.

PAKISTAN

The new Gwadar International Airport opened on Monday in the Pakistani port city of the same name. Under construction since 2019, the $230 million facility is a major piece of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor project, itself one of the cornerstones of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The airport has been a target for Baluch separatists, who take an overall dim view of CPEC on sovereignty grounds, and its opening was delayed in part by militant attacks.

INDIA

Indian security forces killed at least 14 Maoist Naxalite rebels in Chhattisgarh state on Tuesday. According to the Indian Interior Ministry this operation killed a “top commander” upon whom it had placed a $115,000 bounty. Indian authorities are ramping up their campaign against the Naxalites in hope of ending their movement altogether by next year. They killed at least 12 rebels in an engagement in Chhattisgarh on Thursday.

MYANMAR

The Chinese government announced on Monday that it has mediated a ceasefire between the Myanmar junta and one of the country’s most active rebel groups, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). Neither the junta nor the rebels have commented, though last month the MNDAA did announce that it was imposing a unilateral ceasefire to support negotiations. The group is part of the “Three Brotherhood Alliance” coalition that opened a major offensive against the junta in October 2023 and has seized significant territory in Shan and Rakhine states. Beijing also appears to be working on a ceasefire between the junta and another alliance member, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Both the MNDAA and the TNLA control territory along the Chinese border.

In Rakhine, meanwhile, the rebel Arakan Army group is claiming that the junta killed at least 28 people and wounded another 25 when it bombed a “detention facility” in Mrauk-U Township on Saturday. According to the AA “those who were killed and wounded were family members of soldiers in Myanmar’s Army,” including children, who were being held in the facility. It further claims that it was “preparing a plan to release them” when the attack took place.

AFRICA

SUDAN

The Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group reportedly bombarded a displaced persons camp near the besieged North Darfur city of Al-Fashir on Monday night, killing at least 16 people. The Abu Shouk camp, where the attack took place, is one of several camps in that area that are internationally designated as famine zones. The shelling came two days after RSF fighters attacked a community east of Al-Fashir, killing at least 14 people.

NIGER

Responsible Statecraft’s Taiwo Hassan reports on new tensions emerging in the relationship between Niger and Nigeria:

According to [Nigerien junta leader Abdourahmane] Tchiani, who came to power after overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum in a military coup in July 2023, France offered money to Nigerian authorities “to establish a base in Borno State, with the sole aim of destabilizing our countries” — an apparent reference to other junta-led West African States, Mali and Burkina Faso, which recently split from ECOWAS.

The Nigerian government has refuted the allegation, describing it as false and baseless. It is not the first time Niger’s junta has made such accusations without offering concrete evidence. Nevertheless whether Tchiani was serious or merely uttering “hot air” to distract attention, the accusation exposes the tensions between the two countries at a time when they should be working together. Worse, it shows how suspicious the region is of Western powers and their interactions with ECOWAS and especially Nigeria.

Both Nigeria and Niger are close neighbors within the Lake Chad basin with historic and familial ties. Their mutual borders require joint patrol to ward off jihadist insurgency and banditry ravaging the local communities. It is for this reason that the spat has set off concerns in border communities prompting the Nigerian army to issue assurances earlier this month that the joint patrols would continue regardless of the row.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

M23 rebels continue to advance in the eastern DRC. On Tuesday, Congolese authorities confirmed that the rebels had captured the town of Minova in South Kivu province along with several nearby mining towns and a village in neighboring North Kivu. Minova lies on Lake Kivu and is both an important commercial hub and a transit vector for humanitarian aid heading into North Kivu’s capital city, Goma. M23 is increasingly surrounding and isolating that city, with the fighting apparently close enough now that shelling is threatening some of Goma’s residential neighborhoods. The United Nations estimates that its recent operations have displaced over 237,000 civilians just since the start of the year. Amnesty International on Monday accused the Congolese military and M23 of bombing civilian populations and called on the International Criminal Court to investigate both parties for potential war crimes.

EUROPE

NATO

At least one person in NATO seems pretty pleased to see Donald Trump back in the White House—Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who clearly regards Trump as a key piece of leverage to force member states to jack up their defense spending beyond even the alliance’s current 2 percent of GDP recommendation. French President Emmanuel Macron is beating the same drum, though his messaging seems a bit less enthusiastic than Rutte’s and more focused on responding to a potential US military drawdown in Europe. Trump has floated requiring NATO members to spend at least 5 percent of GDP on defense, which is a mark even the military-drunk US doesn’t hit, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll stay there or lower his target to something more manageable.

At World Politics Review, Jennifer Kavanaugh and Daniel DePetris argue that Trump’s fixation on defense spending is the wrong approach. They say it would be more effective simply to announce that the US is reallocating military assets from Europe and leave the mechanics of replacing the current US military presence up to European governments. Doing so might actually allow the US to reduce its defense spending since it would no longer be acting as Europe’s security blanket, though it’s doubtful Trump and company would see things that way.

RUSSIA

According to The Washington Post, US and European intelligence officials are coming to the conclusion that three recent incidents in which infrastructure running under the Baltic Sea was damaged were the result of human error and not signs of a Russian hybrid war against European infrastructure. In all three cases ships traveling to or from Russia are believed to have been responsible for the damage, but theories have shifted from deliberate attack to “accidents caused by inexperienced crews serving aboard poorly maintained vessels.” Apparently there are “clear explanations” supporting the accident scenarios and “a lack of evidence suggesting Russian culpability.” In recent months European officials have asserted unambiguously that these incidents were intentionally carried out by Moscow so needless to say this is an interesting development.

CYPRUS

The UN hosted a meeting between Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar on Monday with the aim of opening new crossing points along the buffer zone separating their territories. They…did not do that, but they did apparently agree on the desirability of new crossing points as well as several other “trust-building” steps. So I guess that’s something, right? Right? The principals are planning to meet again between now and the second week in February to continue the discussion.

AMERICAS

COLOMBIA

The Colombian government on Monday declared a state of emergency amid a major uptick in violence by the National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group. Said violence, consisting primarily of clashes between ELN fighters and factions of former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militants in parts of northeastern Colombia, has killed at least 80 people since Thursday (and fighting between FARC factions has left at least 20 more dead) while displacing nearly 20,000 people. President Gustavo Petro suspended peace talks with ELN on Thursday in response to this new surge in fighting. Colombian special forces are reportedly deploying into the Catatumbo region, which has seen some of the heaviest clashes.

UNITED STATES

Finally, Donald Trump issued a whopping 26 executive orders on Monday, easily surpassing his predecessors for the highest number of EOs issued on Inauguration Day. Congratulations, I guess? In an effort to catch our collective breath I thought it might be helpful to just highlight a few of those orders that impact on foreign policy:

• Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement was an easy one to predict, and much as I’d like to say this is a huge blow to efforts to minimize the impact of climate change the fact is humanity was already on pace to blow past Paris’s 1.5 degree Celsius warming target anyway—indeed we spewed more carbon into the atmosphere than ever in 2024, according to the UK’s Met Office. That’s not to say Trump’s election won’t prove to be a huge climate setback—of course it will—but does this specific step really matter? I’m skeptical.

• Withdrawing from the World Health Organization could cost that agency a full one-fifth of its funding. Trump started the WHO withdrawal process toward the end of his first term but Joe Biden reversed it when he took office. This time around Trump seems to be expecting the WHO to do something to lure the US back, though I have no idea what that could be. His big gripe about the agency seems to be that it’s too friendly toward China, but quitting is probably going to force it to rely more heavily on Beijing for support.

• Renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” and reverting Denali back to “Mount McKinley” are so petty as to be almost beneath comment, though at least Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum got a laugh out of the former.

• Several of his EOs related to immigration, including restoration of the “Remain in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers and the declaration of a “national emergency” that could open the door to a new military deployment along the Mexican border. Trump also froze refugee admissions, a decision that will particularly impact Afghan nationals who have ties to the US military and are still waiting to be evacuated from Afghanistan where they could still face reprisals.

• Trump ordered the US State Department to declare Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, a bit of virtue signaling to his base that doesn’t really do much to expand US law enforcement’s capacity to target those organizations but could raise the possibility of a military incursion into Mexico that I’m sure would work out fantastically for everyone.

• He also rescinded dozens of Joe Biden’s EOs, which among other repercussions includes lifting the aforementioned sanctions on Israeli settlers as well as restoring Cuba to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list (which may threaten the prisoner release the Biden administration had negotiated in exchange for removing Cuba from that list) and restoring a ban on transgender individuals serving in the US military.

Trump on Monday also threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on imports from both Mexico and Canada as soon as February 1 unless both countries agree to an early renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement ahead of its 2026 schedule. He’s threatening even more punitive sanctions on Chinese goods unless Beijing sells at least a 50 percent share of the TikTok app to a US buyer. So I guess extortion is in season, which couldn’t possibly backfire. All in all we’re off to a real auspicious start.