World roundup: January 11-12 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Sudan, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
January 11, 630 (or thereabouts): Muhammad and his followers conquer Mecca.
January 11, 1942: In battles at Kuala Lumpur and Tarakan, the Imperial Japanese military wins major victories over Britain and the Netherlands, respectively. Tarakan was the more significant victory as the Japanese military was able to seize control over a substantial oil drilling and refinery operation as well as a major regional airfield. While the victory at Kuala Lumpur helped expand Japan’s control over Southeast Asia, the city was not nearly as large or important as it is today, so this was perhaps not quite as significant a victory as it might seem.
January 12, 1945: The Soviet Red Army begins its Vistula–Oder Offensive, a massive push into Poland involving over 2.2 million soldiers. The operation ended on February 2 with the defeat of German Army Group A, the successful conquest of most of Poland, and the liberation of several Nazi concentration camps, including Auschwitz. Although at one point Soviet forces had advanced close to Berlin with little or no remaining German defenses between them and the city, Marshal Georgy Zhukov opted to halt the advance and shore up his flanks against German attack, buying the Germans a bit more time to, shall we say, put their affairs in order.
January 12, 1970: “Operation Tail-Wind” ends with the surrender of the separatist Biafran army, bringing the 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War (or the “Biafran War” if you like) to a close. Biafran rebel leader Odumegwu Ojukwu fled into exile on January 9 and the remaining leaders of the would-be country formally surrendered to Nigerian authorities on January 15.
MIDDLE EAST
IRAQ
The Iraqi military is claiming that an airstrike it carried out in Diyala province on Friday killed four Islamic State jihadists, including two of the group’s senior leaders in that region. Authorities are still apparently trying to determine the identity of one of the other militants.
SYRIA
The caretaker Syrian government claimed via state media on Saturday that it had foiled an Islamic State plot to bomb the Sayyidah Zaynab shrine outside of Damascus. I don’t know how much to make of this because it can’t be confirmed. That said, it is plausible that IS would attempt an attack like this. For one thing the group has repeatedly carried out attacks targeting that site, which is venerated by Shiʿa and thus anathema to IS from a religious standpoint. For another, because of its importance to Shiʿa, attacking the Sayyidah Zaynab shrine would strike directly at the new Syrian government’s assurances that it can and will protect Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. There are also parallels with the 2006 bombing of al-Askari Mosque in the Iraqi city of Samarra, which has been attributed to al-Qaeda in Iraq—IS’s forerunner—and sparked significant levels of sectarian violence in its wake.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, Syrian Alawites are particularly concerned about their safety under the country’s new authorities:
In nearly two dozen interviews, Syrian Alawites said they are worried about discrimination under the new government and the risk of attacks by the country’s many militias and gangs, who could seek revenge for abuses committed by the Assad dynasty during its long and brutal reign. They point to a collection of disparate incidents in the past two months—including alleged extrajudicial killings, claims of discrimination at checkpoints and the destruction of a religious shrine—that they say are beginning to resemble a pattern of anti-Alawite acts.
LEBANON
New Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is scheduled to begin consultations with the country’s major political parties on Monday, the first stage in the process of naming a new prime minister. According to AFP three names believed to be on the shortlist are incumbent Najib Mikati, legislator and businessman Fouad Makhzoumi, and International Court of Justice presiding judge Nawaf Salam. Of those three Salam is the most interesting candidate and would presumably be the least beholden to any part of Lebanon’s political machine. But there’s some reason to believe that Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies only agreed to support Aoun’s presidential candidacy on the condition that he reappoint Mikati to the job.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE
I am as ever reluctant to make too much out of this, but there has been considerable chatter about progress in the Gaza ceasefire talks over the past couple of days. The only tangible sign of such progress was an announcement by the Israeli government that it’s dispatching Mossad director David Barnea to Qatar. Barnea has functioned as Israel’s lead negotiator and if he’s joining the negotiations it’s likely (though not certain) that he’s been empowered to agree to a deal if he’s satisfied with what’s on the table. Representatives of both the outgoing Biden administration and incoming Trump administration are also apparently involved. The New Arab is reporting that the parties are close to announcing a deal and all that’s left is a final signoff by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (via Barnea, perhaps). Of course this has in the past been the point at which Netanyahu steps in to prevent a deal, but maybe this time will be different.
As The Washington Post reports, growing international scrutiny with respect to arms transfers to Israel is prompting the Israeli government to invest in broadening its domestic defense industry to produce relatively low tech munitions (bombs and artillery shells) in addition to the high tech materiel that has been its main focus. Right now it’s literally cheaper for Israel to purchase bombs and shells from the US, with US aid money, but the geopolitical fallout from the Gaza genocide has boosted calls within Israel to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign arms suppliers. Mind you there’s no evidence that said fallout is having any tangible impact on Israeli arms imports—Joe Biden just announced another whopper of an arms package (some $8 billion in all) for Israel earlier this month.
ASIA
CASPIAN SEA
World Politics Review’s Robert Looney highlights concerns over the shrinking Caspian Sea:
The Caspian Sea is a geographical marvel and a critical resource for the five countries—Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan—that border it. But the future of the world’s largest enclosed inland body of water is highly uncertain. The Caspian is currently exhibiting many of the same symptoms previously experienced by the Aral Sea, which has lost 90 percent of its original size in the past 60 years. Despite the urgency of the problem, however, it is far from certain that the Caspian-bordering countries will reach the levels of cooperation needed for its survival, given their distinct economic and political agendas.
The Caspian Sea’s water levels have decreased an average of 2.75 inches annually since the early 1990s. The Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences now estimates the loss rate at 9 inches per year. From 1993 to 2023, the water level dropped by 6 feet, 6 inches in total.
While the Aral Sea shrank primarily because Soviet-era irrigation projects diverted its tributaries, the Caspian’s decline is more closely tied to climate change-induced evaporation and reduced river inflow caused by dams. But the ecological and socioeconomic consequences could be similarly severe if current trends continue.
MYANMAR
The Kachin Independence Army rebel group is accusing Myanmar’s military of killing at least 15 civilians and wounding another ten in an airstrike that hit a market in Kachin state’s Tanaing district on Saturday. Elsewhere, the United Nations said late Friday that it had confirmed that a military airstrike on the town of Kyauk Ni Maw in Myanmar’s Rakhine state earlier in the week had killed more than 40 people.
CHINA
According to Reuters, the Biden administration’s new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector are likely to have major ramifications for Moscow’s two biggest oil customers: China and India. In particular the addition of scores of tankers to the US blacklist could severely impact the operations of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” which carries hundreds of millions of barrels of oil to market per year, and any complications will likely force Chinese and Indian buyers to explore alternative sources. The result could be higher oil prices, among other considerations. The extent of the impact probably depends on whether or not the incoming Trump administration will actually stick to the new sanctions or rescind them. There is some potential benefit here for US oil producers so it’s not out of the question that Donald Trump might leave the sanctions in place or at least not lift them entirely.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military won a potentially huge victory over the weekend when its forces entered and seized the city of Wad Madani in Sudan’s Gezira state. That city had been held by the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group since mid-December 2023 in an attack that displaced hundreds of thousands of people and crippled efforts to provide humanitarian aid to civilians who had already been displaced by fighting in and around Khartoum. Assuming the military is able to hold onto Wad Madani and build upon its capture this could be a turning point in its conflict with the RSF. Controlling the state capital puts the military in position to regain control of the rest of Gezira state, one of Sudan’s primary agricultural regions. And because the city is an important transportation hub, the military could now threaten to isolate RSF forces that are in Khartoum as well as parts of southeastern Sudan.
Elsewhere, new clashes in North Kordofan state have reportedly displaced thousands of people over the past several days. Overall the conflict has displaced some 205,000 people in North Kordofan and 11.5 million across Sudan. In the Darfur region, an unspecified gunman reportedly opened fire on a Doctors Without Borders ambulance in the city of Al-Fashir on Friday, killing one passenger inside. Al-Fashir has been under RSF siege for several months but as far as I can tell the identity of the attacker has not been determined.
NIGERIA
The Nigerian military mistakenly killed at least 16 members of a local self-defense force in an airstrike in Zamfara state on Saturday, when a pilot apparently misidentified the militia fighters as criminal bandits. Amnesty International reported a death toll of 20 and called on the military to investigate the incident. Also on Saturday, bandits ambushed a convoy of self-defense forces in neighboring Katsina state, killing at least 21 people. The group of Katsina Community Watch Corps fighters was returning from a funeral when the attack took place. Katsina and Zamfara are frequently plagued by bandit activity.
CHAD
Chad held its first parliamentary election since its 2021 military coup late last month and, shock of shocks, it turns out that the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) party won. Who could have predicted, really. MPS took 124 of the 188 seats in the National Assembly in an outcome that was as simple as it was believable. The election was a momentous event in that it marked the last step in Chad’s transition from military rule back to military rule under the guise of democracy.
SOMALIA
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud made an impromptu visit to Addis Ababa on Saturday, where he met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the two agreed to restore full diplomatic relations between their countries. Mohamud’s government expelled Ethiopia’s ambassador from Somalia back in April over the burgeoning relationship between Abiy’s government and the administration of the breakaway Somaliland region. Relations remained strained until Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan mediated a summit between the two leaders in Ankara last month in which they agreed in principle to end their feud. They have yet to conclude the technical negotiations on implementing that Ankara accord but clearly they’re still getting along so far.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The Ukrainian military is claiming a successful drone strike on one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, in the Tatarstan region. Video circulating on social media appears to show a fire within the facilities, though Russian authorities are denying that the attack took place. The extent of any damage is unknown but if the strike did take place then it may demonstrate an effective long-range Ukrainian strike capability—this refinery is around 700 miles from the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian officials also say their forces have captured two North Korean soldiers in combat in Russia’s Kursk oblast. They could provide some insight into the deployment of North Korean forces alongside the Russian military.
Speaking of foreign fighters, Drop Site’s Ali Younes reports that the Russian military is conning Yemenis into serving in its ranks:
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year with no end in sight, Russia has turned to recruiting unwitting young men from Yemen and other Arab countries to fight alongside its troops on the front lines. The men are lured under false pretenses, they tell Drop Site News, with promises of lucrative jobs and opportunities for migration, unaware that they are being forcibly recruited as mercenaries to fight in a foreign war despite having little to no military experience.
Two men who fell victim to the scheme told Drop Site they found out they were being sent to fight with the Russian army in the Ukraine war only once they had landed in Russia. Drop Site obtained a copy of an employment contract, corroborating photos and video, and spoke with a human rights organization that has documented the practice.
UKRAINE
The Russian military claimed the capture of at least three more Ukrainian villages over the weekend, including two on Sunday—Yantarne in Donetsk oblast and Kalinove in Kharkiv oblast. Of potentially more significance, the Russians on Saturday claimed the seizure of the village of Shevchenko, which lies just 3 kilometers west of the city of Pokrovsk. The Russian military has made that city the focal point of its advances for several months. The fact that Shevchenko is located west of Pokrovsk may be notable. The Financial Times reports that the Russian military appears to have decided to go around the city rather than try to take it in a direct assault, which puts them on the road to potentially threatening Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk oblast. They could threaten to cut Pokrovsk and its garrison off from the rest of Ukrainian-held territory and thereby force the Ukrainians to withdraw without putting up a fight.
CROATIA
Croatian President Zoran Milanović won reelection on Sunday in a landslide, taking 74 percent of the vote in a runoff against challenger Dragan Primorac. Milanović won the December 29 first round with a bit over 49 percent of the vote, less than a point shy of an outright first round win, so this outcome was more or less expected. The Croatian presidency is largely symbolic, but the ruling Croatian Democratic Union party had backed Primorac so the outcome has to be viewed as a rebuke of the government and may reflect fallout from a corruption scandal that hit the cabinet back in November.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Stavroula Pabst reports on Silicon Valley’s big monopolistic push to compete with major US defense contractors:
Venture capital (VC)-backed defense tech companies like Anduril, Palantir, and Scale AI have quickly risen to prominence in the weapons industry, increasingly beating out “Big Five” defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and RTX (formerly Raytheon) for military contracts.
And now directly challenging traditional weapons contractors’ grip over the industry, Anduril and Palantir are forming a consortium with fellow defense tech upstarts including SpaceX, OpenAI, Saronic, and Scale AI to jointly bid for military contracts, according to reporting from the Financial Times.
In a press release announcing the consortium, Anduril and Palantir depicted the effort as a way to deliver key “technological infrastructure” to the government and other partners that would “transform America’s world-leading AI advancements into next-generation military and national security capabilities,” which they present as critical to maintaining America’s military dominance amid increasingly tenuous geopolitical conditions.
But forming a consortium to jointly bid for contracts signals an intention to collude, rather than compete, with one another for funding. When considered in tandem with defense upstarts’ recent spate of blossoming partnerships, the consortium appears poised to further concentrate both lucrative government contracts and political influence in the hands of an emerging class of weapons tech start-ups — and the powerful billionaires behind them.
I would say it's little bit misguided to present the institute of Croatian presidency as "largely symbolic". The president is stil the supreme commander of the army, he appoints ambasadors/envoys and technically can exercise some kind of limited veto power. That being said, it's definitely not like e.g. German presidency, the German president has only ceremonial role
Have to cheer for your centering of the Caspian Sea update. Its fate is in our hands! Might have to actually splurge out on the WPR subscription this year. Last year, seemed like I could survive without it but hmmmm we are heading into Year Zero again.