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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 4, 1949: Founding members Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States signed the North Atlantic Treaty, creating NATO (pending ratification by a majority of the signatories). Those original 12 states have grown to 32, so far, with Finland and Sweden the two latest countries to join.
April 4, 1959: The French government creates the autonomous Mali Federation, consisting of Senegal and French Sudan. Exactly one year later, French authorities agreed to grant the federation its independence, effective June 20, 1960. The aggregated state collapsed within two months, in August 1960, leaving in its wake the independent nations of Senegal and Mali. Through all that, Senegal recognizes April 4 as its Independence Day—referring to April 4 1960, not 1959, but April 4 nevertheless.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Jacobin’s Seraj Assi assesses the aftermath of the Israeli military’s (IDF) extended assault on Gaza’s al-Shifa Hospital:
After two weeks of carnage, Israeli military forces and tanks withdrew from the besieged hospital compound on Monday. Over four hundred bodies have been uncovered so far, half of them children and women. Hundreds lay wounded with grotesque deformities; many others remain missing.
The hospital lay in ruins, with the main buildings reduced to burned-out husks. The Israeli army bombed and burned all buildings, including the mortuary, courtyards, and corridors. Residents described scenes of “total destruction” at the site, saying Israeli troops had “destroyed all sense of life” there. According to Ismail al-Thawabta, director of Gaza’s media office, “The occupation destroyed and burned all buildings inside al-Shifa medical complex. They bulldozed the courtyards, burying dozens of bodies of martyrs in the rubble, turning the place into a mass graveyard.”
After the raid, the hospital resembled a slaughterhouse. Hundreds of bodies lay scattered in the dirt, mutilated beyond recognition. Bodies with heads and limbs severed were discovered both inside the hospital and in the surrounding area. Surgeons had been tied up and executed. Some bodies were buried under the rubble, with body parts protruding from the ground; others had been crushed and flattened by bulldozers, their hands and legs tied behind their backs.
Footage shows medical teams collecting the remains of children whose bodies had decomposed in the ground. Families struggled to identify loved ones from their clothes. The skeletal remains of one woman were uncovered in a pile of garbage, the skull severed from the skeleton.
In other news:
HuffPost’s Akbar Shahid Ahmed reported earlier this week that officials in the US Agency for International Development have determined, based on outside assessments, that “famine is likely already occurring in parts of the Gaza Strip.” In a cable sent by USAID to the US State Department and the White House, the officials characterized Gaza’s hunger crisis as “unprecedented in modern history” and warned that starvation deaths will “accelerate in the weeks ahead.” They also pointed the finger, at least implicitly, at the Israeli government for causing this crisis, and that was before the IDF’s triple tap drone strike on Monday caused the World Central Kitchen to shut down its maritime aid project.
Said drone strike has sparked a revival of America’s favorite two-man comedy show, “Biden and Bibi,” by way of what Axios reporter Barak Ravid termed a “tense” phone call between Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday. Biden reportedly demanded that Netanyahu implement “concrete and measurable steps” to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza and protect aid workers, and he sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken out to tell reporters that “if we don't see the changes we need to see, there will be a change in our policy.” He also, according to the White House’s readout of the conversation, pressured Netanyahu to allow his negotiating team to be more flexible in ongoing ceasefire talks. That’s somewhat incongruous with the administration’s public insistence that it’s Hamas, not the Israeli government, that’s preventing those talks from getting anywhere.
There was a tentative indication late Thursday (Friday morning in Israel) that Netanyahu might have blinked in the face of Biden’s (alleged) anger, as the Israeli PM’s office announced that it will open the Erez checkpoint in northern Gaza for humanitarian aid shipments. This will in theory allow aid shipments to be processed at Israel’s Ashdod port and brought directly into the hardest hit part of the territory, bypassing the bottlenecks in southern Gaza. Israeli officials also said they will “increase” the amount of aid coming through the southern Kerem Shalom checkpoint. This all sounds nice in theory but until it actually happens in practice I’m reserving judgment.
If above has gotten your hopes up even a little, please allow me to dash them by noting that the Biden administration approved yet another munitions transfer to Israel on the same day as the WCK attack. Administration officials say the approval came before they got word of the strike, but frankly if everything else that the IDF has done over the past six months hasn’t given the administration pause I see no reason to think this latest atrocity will. They’ll raise a public ruckus and hope it all blows over before the next arms shipment.
Continuing with the staged ups and downs in the US-Israel relationship, NBC News is one of several outlets reporting that Ron Dermer, Israeli minister of strategic affairs and longtime Netanyahu adviser, “yelled” at Blinken and White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during a virtual meeting on Monday to discuss Israel’s plans for the forthcoming assault on Rafah. Dermer reportedly delivered details of the Israeli government’s plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah and into central Gaza ahead of the assault, and I use the term “details” lightly because according to NBC the “plan” included few or no details as to how the Israelis plan to house, feed, or otherwise provide for the 1 million-plus displaced persons they’re supposedly intending to evacuate. When Blinken and Sullivan pointed this out, that’s apparently when Dermer flew into a rage. I assume he was expecting that a vague nod in the direction of protecting civilians would suffice, given that the Biden administration has shown little genuine interest in the safety of Gaza’s civilian population to date.
The IDF is reportedly on “alert” over the possibility of an Iranian retaliation for the Israeli airstrike that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel, including senior commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, in the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Monday. It’s canceled leave for its personnel and has reportedly scrambled GPS signals in Israel to try to confuse Iranian weapons. This Friday is the last Friday of Ramadan and that means it’s also Quds Day, which commemorates the Palestinian cause (al-Quds is the Arabic name for Jerusalem). If the Iranians are intending a major reprisal they may do so then, given the day’s symbolic heft. But questions still abound as to whether they do intend a reprisal and what form it might take.
Israeli “war cabinet” member Benny Gantz is calling for a snap election in September. He’s doing so because polling strongly indicates that he would win, but his problem is that Netanyahu can read the same polls and he’s not legally required to submit to an election until 2026. Only a breakdown in Netanyahu’s governing coalition could force a vote, and the likelihood of that seems slim. That said, the recurring controversy over the Haredi community’s exemption from Israel’s otherwise mandatory military service has flared up again after the Israeli Supreme Court ordered Netanyahu last week to end government stipends for Haredi yeshiva students as part of a process of winding down that exemption. Haredi parties in Netanyahu’s coalition have threatened to quit the government if he attempts to enforce that ruling, which could trigger an election.
SYRIA
A bomb reportedly killed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham co-founder Abu Maria al-Qahtani in northwestern Syria’s Idlib province on Thursday evening. Qahtani was active in al-Qaeda in Iraq in the mid 2000s and collaborated with current HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani to found that group’s predecessor, the Nusra Front, in 2012. There are conflicting accounts as to whether he was killed by a suicide bomber or by a remotely detonated explosive device. HTS had jailed Qahtani back in August for somehow “misusing social media” but it released him last month amid a rise in protests against the group’s control of Idlib. From what I can tell there’s no indication as to responsibility but the possibility that HTS leaders decided to do away with him probably can’t be dismissed.
KUWAIT
Lucky duck Kuwaiti voters went to the polls on Thursday for their third parliamentary election in as many years. A constant back-and-forth between the elected Kuwaiti legislature—which uniquely among Gulf parliaments actually does have some real power—and the Kuwaiti royal family has created a political morass. The royals keep dissolving parliament in hopes that voters will elect a new one that is less confrontational, but said voters have yet to do so. There’s not much reason to expect this election to be any different than the previous two.
IRAN
Those overnight attacks in southeastern Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province killed at least 10 people at last count, all Iranian security personnel. At least 18 attackers, members of the Baluch militant group Jaish ul-Adl, were also killed in the clash according to the Iranian Interior Ministry.
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted the UAE-based shipping firm Oceanlink Maritime DMCC and its ships, for allegedly shipping Iranian goods in violation of US sanctions.
ASIA
INDIA
An investigative report from The Guardian makes new claims about the Indian government’s alleged overseas assassination program:
Interviews with intelligence officials in [India and Pakistan], as well as documents shared by Pakistani investigators, shed new light on how India’s foreign intelligence agency allegedly began to carry out assassinations abroad as part of an emboldened approach to national security after 2019. The agency, the Research & Analysis Wing (Raw), is directly controlled by the office of India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, who is running for a third term in office in elections later this month.
The accounts appear to give further weight to allegations that Delhi has implemented a policy of targeting those it considers hostile to India. While the new allegations refer to individuals charged with serious and violent terror offences, India has also been accused publicly by Washington and Ottawa of involvement in the murders of dissident figures including a Sikh activist in Canada and of a botched assassination attempt on another Sikh in the US last year.
The fresh claims relate to almost 20 killings since 2020, carried out by unknown gunmen in Pakistan. While India has previously been unofficially linked to the deaths, this is the first time Indian intelligence personnel have discussed the alleged operations in Pakistan, and detailed documentation has been seen alleging Raw’s direct involvement in the assassinations.
The allegations also suggest that Sikh separatists in the Khalistan movement were targeted as part of these Indian foreign operations, both in Pakistan and the west.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s “National Unity Government” rebel group claimed responsibility for an attempted drone strike on the country’s capital city, Naypyidaw, on Thursday. People’s Defense Force militia personnel launched simultaneous attacks on the city’s airport and a military headquarters. Myanmar’s military government acknowledged the attack but said its security forces intercepted all of the drones. The NUG is disputing that, but at this point there’s no independent information suggesting that the attack caused any damage or casualties. A couple of media sources, including the BBC’s Burmese outlet, are reporting that the airport had to be shut down. Regardless of the effect, the fact that the militia was able to undertake an attack like this is probably another indication that the junta is struggling to control even the heartland of the country.
AFRICA
ETHIOPIA
A new report from Human Rights Watch accuses Ethiopian security forces of having “summarily executed several dozen civilians” in the Amhara region in an incident that took place in late January. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said back in mid-February that it had confirmed the killing of at least 45 civilians in the town of Merawi, connected to ongoing fighting between federal security forces and the Amhara Fano militia. Unconfirmed reports have put the death toll at 80 or more. The HRW report urged a United Nations investigation into this incident as well as other reports of human rights abuses by security forces in Amhara.
SOMALIA
A landmine explosion in Mogadishu killed at least two people on Thursday, including a Turkish aid worker. Al-Shabab unsurprisingly claimed responsibility for the blast while insisting that it killed at least seven people, and local outlets are putting the death toll at four or more.
Elsewhere, the Somali government on Thursday expelled Ethiopia’s ambassador while also recalling its own ambassador from Addis Ababa. Somali officials cited the Ethiopian government’s naval base deal with the separatist government in the breakaway Somaliland region in announcing the expulsion. It additionally ordered the closure of Ethiopian consulates in Somaliland and the autonomous Puntland region, though both regional governments suggested they will ignore that order.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
NATO foreign ministers marked the alliance’s 75th birthday on Thursday by promising to step up their support for Ukraine’s air defenses, somehow. That includes providing new air defense systems as well as additional ammunition for systems already provided. Ukraine has been struggling to maintain its air defense systems under continued Russian bombardment, as the Russian capacity to manufacture missiles and drones exceeds Ukraine’s ability to produce, or acquire, interceptor weapons. To that point, an overnight Russian drone strike killed at least four people and knocked out power in the city of Kharkiv.
FINLAND
The Finnish government on Thursday decided to close the country’s border with Russia indefinitely. Finnish authorities closed the border for two months on December 15 while accusing the Russian government of facilitating the flow of asylum seekers into Finland, then renewed the closure on February 15 for another two months. It’s now also planning to close three “maritime checkpoints” in addition to the land border.
DENMARK
The Danish government on Thursday closed the Great Belt strait, which runs between the islands of Zealand and Funen and is an important maritime route between the Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea, as well as nearby airspace. Apparently a missile launcher malfunctioned aboard the HDMS Niels Juel, a Danish naval frigate, and there’s some risk that it could fire a missile inadvertently. The closures will remain in place until the launcher can be deactivated.
AMERICAS
PERU
The Peruvian Congress rejected two impeachment motions filed against President Dina Boluarte on Thursday. As I noted earlier this week, Boluarte is embroiled in a corruption scandal, and given her lack of popularity there was some speculation that the scandal might be enough to threaten her presidency. It appears, however, that the conservatives who control the Congress and are backing Boluarte haven’t budged despite the scandal.
ECUADOR
The Ecuadorian government on Thursday expelled Mexico’s ambassador over recent comments from Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador regarding last year’s Ecuadorian presidential election. While addressing Mexico’s own electoral violence challenges, AMLO made some reference to the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio ahead of that election and seemed to imply that it contributed to the election of right-wing candidate Daniel Noboa. Apparently Noboa took offense.
COLOMBIA
Colombian soldiers killed at least nine members of the Segunda Marquetalia group, one of the two largest factions of ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels, in a battle in Colombia’s Nariño department on Wednesday. The Colombian government and Segunda Marquetalia agreed in February to open peace talks, so this is presumably a setback to that process though I haven’t seen any reaction from the militant group.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Spencer Ackerman has some thoughts about Israel’s use of artificial intelligence and what it means for the future of warfare:
In November, [+972 Magazine reporter Yuval] Abraham revealed the existence of an artificial-intelligence target generation system called Habsora ("the Gospel"). I remarked in FOREVER WARS that Habsora underscored that the point of militarized AI is not precision but scale. This time, Abraham, citing six Israeli military officials experienced using the system, reveals another targeting AI, this one called Lavender. Lavender is basically what those of us who worked on the Edward Snowden documents warned was on the horizon as the end result of mass surveillance. "We kill people based on metadata," the former NSA and CIA director Mike Hayden once acknowledged. Lavender, as reported, does that at scale. It's an AI for Signature Strikes.
The IDF officers who describe the system present it as effectively the end result of mass surveillance. Only through the collection and retention of pattern-of-life data on unfathomable scale—the sort that Israel routinely collects on Palestinians, including in Gaza—could Lavender generate "a rating from 1 to 100, expressing how likely it is that they are a militant." Lavender chews up patterns, habits and characteristics of Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad and spits out likelihoods within the "general population," meaning 2.3 million Gazans, of who might be a militant, a term the officers stress is not rigorously defined. Then those people are hunted and killed, often deliberately when they are in close proximity to their families. If you've seen Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Lavender is a real-life Project Insight.
As Spencer writes, a system like Lavender marks the point at which “a human brain is no longer necessary” when it comes to the process of identifying and eliminating supposed targets. I’m sure that will work out great moving forward.
I wonder what my Lavender score is.