World roundup: February 22-23 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Sudan, Germany, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
February 22, 1848: A large crowd gathers in downtown Paris to demonstrate its anger against French King Louis Philippe I and demand the resignation of his prime minister, François Pierre Guillaume Guizot. The following day, Guizot’s resignation was overshadowed when French soldiers fired on the crowd, massacring more than 50 of them and kicking off the French Revolution of 1848. The revolution toppled Louis Philippe and instituted the French Second Republic, which lasted until 1852 when its president, Louis Napoléon Bonaparte (AKA Napoleon III), declared himself emperor as his uncle had done in 1804. Louis Philippe was the last King of the French.
February 22, 1797: A small French military force comes ashore near the town of Fishguard in southern Wales, kicking off the Battle of (you guessed it) Fishguard. Intended as part of a diversionary operation to mask a planned French invasion of Ireland, the incursion failed when it met stiff local resistance and the Irish invasion failed to materialize. Two days later the French force surrendered, and this marks the last time to date that a foreign army has attempted to invade the island of Britain.
February 23, 1455: This is traditionally the date cited for the publication of the “Gutenberg Bible,” one of the first books mass printed in Europe using moveable metal type and certainly the most famous. Johannes Gutenberg’s work helped to usher in the age of printing, in which books could be produced at such a volume that they became affordable and available to a wider segment of the public and printing works in vernacular languages (rather than just Latin) became more economically viable.
February 23, 1966: Leaders of the Syrian regional branch of the Baʿath Party pull off a coup d’etat, ousting the old guard party leadership. The incident precipitated the splintering of the previously pan-Arab Baʿathist movement into Syrian and Iraqi national parties.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
The political wing of the Syrian Democratic Forces militia began shipping oil to the Syrian government from fields under its control on Saturday. The SDF had sold oil to the previous government but that arrangement was interrupted when militant groups ousted Bashar al-Assad in December. The shipments resumed under a set of short-term (three month) contracts and presumably any longer-term arrangements are going to be part of the negotiations on an overall settlement between the government and the SDF. The resumption of oil supplies may help to advance talks on that settlement.
In other news related to the Syrian government, the US military’s Central Command reported on Saturday that it had killed “Wasim Tahsin Bayraqdar, a senior leadership facilitator of the terrorist organization Hurras al-Din” in an airstrike the previous day in northwestern Syria. There is some dispute over whether Bayraqdar was still an active member of Hurras al-Din (and not just because the group announced its dissolution last month; he’s said to have left it years ago), but what is not in dispute is that he was the brother of Syrian Religious Endowments Minister Samer Bayraqdar.
The New York Times reported on Saturday on life in southern Syria, a region that is now divided between areas that are under Israeli military (IDF) occupation and areas where people are living in fear of potential IDF violence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now says that his government “will not allow HTS forces or the new Syrian army to enter the area south of Damascus.” “HTS” refers to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the jihadist militant group formerly led by current Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. One could argue that there’s not a huge distinction between that ostensibly defunct group and the army into which it was incorporated. Even so, the notion that Netanyahu is able to dictate where the Syrian army is “allowed” to operate on Syrian soil would seem to raise at least a couple of red flags.
LEBANON
According to Reuters, “hundreds of thousands” of people turned out to participate in the funeral ceremony for former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Sunday. If that assessment is accurate then I think it’s safe to say that Hezbollah has made the point it was trying to make in terms of its continued political relevance. Current Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, both of whom addressed the event by video, pledged continued “resistance” to Israel, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reportedly told an Iranian delegation that “Lebanon has grown tired of the wars of others on its land.” IDF warplanes buzzed the funeral twice and carried out airstrikes ostensibly against Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon before and during the event.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Hamas, as scheduled, released six Israeli hostages on Saturday to continue the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement. The Israeli government was supposed to release 620 Palestinians from its custody but has apparently decided not to to do that. Netanyahu instead announced that he’s suspending any further detainee releases until Hamas stops staging public ceremonies marking its hostage handover. Those ceremonies, which may well violate international law and could certainly be seen as “humiliating” and “disgraceful” as Netanyahu described them, nevertheless don’t appear to violate anything in the ceasefire deal. Withholding the release of Palestinian detainees certainly does violate the deal, however, and given that Netanyahu never really wanted this deal in the first place I think we have to consider the possibility that he’s trying to manufacture an exit. He says he wants to “ensure” that future hostage releases will be conducted without these ceremonies before he’ll release the detainees, without offering any hint as to how that might be done.
Elsewhere:
The Trump administration is sending its Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, back to the region to try to negotiate an extension to the “first phase” of the ceasefire agreement, which would maintain the current truce while adding additional detainee exchanges (assuming Netanyahu gets around to fulfilling his end of that bargain). Right now that phase is scheduled to end this coming Saturday and there have been minimal, if any, talks on the implementation of the second phase. Extending this phase could allow more time for those talks to take place—though here too, Netanyahu can just continue refusing to participate—but it also conveys the sense that Israel and the US are just trying to eke out a few more weeks to get the rest of the hostages released before the slaughter resumes. If the endgame is Donald Trump’s ethnic cleansing plan then the military component will likely have to continue at some point.
Israeli authorities have confirmed that a body Hamas repatriated on Friday is that of October 7 hostage Shiri Bibas. Her remains were supposed to be among a group of four that were repatriated on Thursday but DNA testing apparently showed that they were not in that group.
A new study published in The Lancet estimates that average life expectancy in Gaza dropped from 75.5 years in 2023 to 40.6 years today. That is the lowest figure in the world. This is obviously driven to a large extent by the number of children the IDF has killed since the October 7 attacks, all while Israeli and US leaders have professed their supposed concern for protecting civilian lives. Further undermining those claims, average life expectancy has dropped by nearly 30 years for women in Gaza, which is less than the corresponding decrease for men but still evidence of a very high rate of noncombatants being killed.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Sunday that the IDF has now fully cleared three northern West Bank refugee camps—Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur Shams—and will occupy them for at least the next year to prevent their repopulation. Israeli forces have been systematically destroying infrastructure in those camps since occupying them and are now apparently moving tanks into the northern West Bank to expand their operation. The long-term plan is unclear, but there’s a strong possibility that when these sites “reopen” they will no longer be refugee camps and their population capacity will be significantly reduced.
IRAN
CNN reported a few days ago that the Saudi government “is open to mediating between the Trump administration and Iran” in an effort to reach a new nuclear deal. The prospects of the Iranian government opting to develop nuclear weapons have probably gone up due to the weakening of Tehran’s regional deterrent network, and whereas a few years ago the Saudis probably would have supported military action against Iranian nuclear sites, these days they’re on pretty good terms with their Iranian counterparts and are looking to settle things peacefully. Donald Trump has expressed interest in negotiating with Iran, but Khamenei has expressed skepticism. Even if negotiations can be arranged, and despite recent improvements in the Saudi-Iranian relationship, it’s unclear whether Tehran would really be comfortable with Saudi mediation.
ASIA
CAMBODIA
A previously unexploded rocket-propelled grenade detonated in northern Cambodia’s Siem Reap province on Saturday, killing two 2 year olds who’d come across it while their parents were farming. They join nearly 20,000 other Cambodians who have been killed by unexploded ordinance since the Cambodian conflict ended in the late 1990s. The annual number of such deaths has declined over time but the threat still clearly remains.
CHINA
The Chinese and Australian governments are in a bit of a dust-up over recent live-fire Chinese naval drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. While those are international waters and the Chinese navy is within its rights to drill there, it’s a bit unclear why it needs to drill there specifically with live ammunition, and Australian officials have accused Beijing of providing inadequate notice of their activities. Three commercial flights apparently had to be diverted midair on Friday due to the exercises, which does suggest short notice. The Chinese Defense Ministry called these complaints “unreasonable accusations” and “completely inconsistent with the facts” in a retort on Sunday. Presumably the point of drilling so close to Australia is to intimidate the Australian government, which is fueling that government’s complaints though neither party can say that openly.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military claimed on Sunday that it had secured control over the town of El Geteina in southern Sudan’s White Nile state. The Rapid Support Forces militant group has been on a rampage in that area in recent days, concurrent with clashes between its forces and the army. The advance leaves White Nile almost entirely in military hands. Of potentially even more significance, the military also announced that it has broken the RSF’s siege of El Obeid, the capital of neighboring North Kordofan state. Obeid is strategically significant both as a transportation hub and as the headquarters of an entire Sudanese army division with an airbase.
These twin setbacks did not make for a very auspicious beginning to the RSF’s new foray into governing. The group, along with a few allies like the Sudan People’s Liberation Front-North Hilu faction, finally signed a political charter over the weekend to establish a government in the territories it controls. The signing took place in a private event in Nairobi, perhaps to avoid the diplomatic fallout that ensued after last Tuesday’s public RSF ceremony in the Kenyan capital. The government itself will be announced in the next few days, most likely, and then it will be interesting to see if any of the RSF’s international backers recognize it.
MALI
The Malian army claims that it is investigating reports that its soldiers, along with a group of Russian mercenaries, intercepted two vehicles carrying civilians from the city of Gao to Algeria on Monday and summarily executed 24 passengers. Northern Malian rebel groups reported the alleged (I guess) massacre and drew a quick rebuke from Malian officials that then morphed into this (also alleged) investigation a couple of days later. Whatever investigation is conducted here will probably be trying to justify the killings rather than honestly assessing what happened.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
According to the AP, M23 militants are singling out the families of Congolese soldiers for retribution:
The Rwanda-backed rebels who captured eastern Congo’s major city of Goma have targeted relatives of fleeing Congolese soldiers, the families say, with the troops’ wives chased from military barracks and left stranded in the city while some of their children are allegedly being forced to join the rebellion.
As the M23 rebels swept into Goma in late January, they moved into military camps in and around the city, which had hosted hundreds of military families, and quickly emptied them of their relatives, the women said.
M23 is the most potent of about 100 armed groups vying for a foothold in Congo’s mineral-rich east. In a major escalation of their yearslong fighting with government forces, the rebels captured Goma and Bukavu, the region’s biggest cities, in fighting that has forced thousands of soldiers to either flee or surrender while at least 2,000 people have been killed.
After being forced to leave military camps in Goma, many families of fleeing Congolese soldiers are sheltering in temporary settlements, including schools where their belongings lie around and where several families are cramped in some classrooms. At the shelters, they spoke to The Associated Press about their new life of hardship and uncertainty.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
At last check the US and Ukrainian governments were “nearing a deal” to hand a massive chunk of Ukraine’s potential mineral wealth and other parts of its future economy to US control in return for some sort of security commitment from Washington. There is no deal in place yet, and according to The New York Times the latest iteration of the Trump administration’s proposal may actually be harder on Ukraine than the one Volodymyr Zelensky rejected earlier this month:
Ukraine on Saturday was seriously considering a revised American proposal for its vast natural resources that contains virtually the same provisions that Kyiv previously rejected as too onerous, according to Ukrainian officials and a draft of the deal.
In fact, some of the terms appear even tougher than in a previous draft. The latest proposal comes after a week in which President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine resisted signing the earlier version in a public dispute with President Trump.
The proposed agreement would significantly shift onto a mercantile footing the United States’ three-year alliance with Ukraine in the largest war in Europe since World War II. The conflict to date has largely been seen as a struggle to secure Ukraine and the European continent from an authoritarian threat from Russia.
The Trump administration’s terms could also strip Ukraine of some funds that are now mostly invested in the country’s military and defense industry, and that could help rebuild the country once the war is over.
There is still no binding security guarantee in the text, apparently, but there is a provision for long-term US financial support in the form of a “fund” into which Ukraine’s resource revenues would be deposited up to Donald Trump’s magical $500 billion amount. The US government would have full control over that fund and Ukraine would almost certainly be better off financially if it just kept the resources. The US could send additional military aid to Ukraine under this arrangement but only if Kyiv pays into the fund “a sum equal to twice the amount the United States might give to Ukraine after the deal is signed.”
So whether Ukraine is taken over militarily by Russia or economically by the United States (or, hey, why not both), it seems unlikely that the country is going to retain anything like full sovereignty at the end of this process. I suppose the latter may be preferable, though I’m not sure it’s cut and dried either way. That this is the choice before him may help to explain why Zelensky offered to resign on Sunday in exchange for Ukrainian NATO membership. There’s no way that’s going to work but it’s the sort of gesture that could serve Zelensky politically as he tries to sell a bad deal with the US to an angry Ukrainian public. And really what would he be giving up? The chance to spend the next four years taking orders from Donald Trump?
In other items:
The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Monday to consider a resolution marking three years since Russia invaded Ukraine again in 2022. The Trump administration is reportedly pressuring Zelensky to withdraw Ukraine’s version of that resolution, which condemns the invasion, and replace it with a US-drafted version that calls for an end to the war without placing blame on Moscow. The Ukrainians have not withdrawn their resolution and so the US is now reportedly going to try to get its resolution through the UN Security Council, which would carry more weight than a UNGA resolution. I would imagine that France and/or the UK will veto it but either or both may cave in to US pressure. That still doesn’t mean it will get enough votes to pass.
Speaking of France and the UK, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that they are spearheading talks on putting together a 30,000-person European peacekeeping force that could be stationed in Ukraine to secure a peace deal. Incredibly the proposal depends on US support, despite what a manifestly bad idea it is for European countries to depend on US military support. Washington would be expected not to contribute personnel to the peacekeeping force, but to provide that force with air support and air defense protection in the event that a conflict broke out between the peacekeepers and the Russian military. The idea would be more deterring Russia than actually getting involved in a conflict but even so it’s somewhat astonishing that two of Europe’s most powerful military actors can’t figure out a way to formulate this plan that doesn’t rely on what is now effectively a hostile government in Washington.
GERMANY
German voters headed to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, and the result was broadly consistent with pre-election polling: the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance victorious and the far-right Alternative for Germany party in a very disquieting second place. Exit polling has CDU/CSU at around 28.5 percent of the vote with AfD at just under 21 percent, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of current Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a bit over 16 percent. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has already declared victory and will be in line to succeed Scholz, probably via a coalition with SPD. There’s still some question as to whether the two parties will hold a collective majority on their own or will need to bring a third party into the prospective coalition. AfD will wind up as the main opposition party and its supporters will hope that its surge in popularity carries it into government in Germany’s next federal election.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, Spencer Ackerman reports that noted defense contractor Elon Musk is about to get his hands on a massive database full of invaluable information on the US defense industry:
ELON MUSK'S SO-CALLED DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY (DOGE) is conducting a smash-and-grab throughout the federal government. Among its seizures are software critical to the US Treasury's payment systems, data on financial service providers regulated by the Consumer Financial Protection Board, and, perhaps soon, highly revealing information about taxpayers housed within the Internal Revenue Service. Now, three former State Department officials fear that Musk's enforcers may soon gain access to another treasure trove – one that could help corner defense markets around the world.
The database, which concerns US-manufactured defense items for export, would provide Musk a unique and massive competitive advantage for his rocket company, SpaceX – and potentially for his allies in Silicon Valley, including artificial intelligence and datamining companies like Anduril and Palantir. SpaceX is both a major defense contractor and a foreign launch contract holder. Far beyond a conflict of interest, the ex-officials say, the impact of gaining access to the data could be seismic on the defense industry.
The trove is known as USXports, often shortened to USX. With contributions from the State, Defense, Commerce, and Treasury Departments, USXports is a master list of information on defense-export items, from guns to satellites, the companies that make them, and the foreign entities that purchase them. Its data is both granular enough to provide technical specifications on each item – specifications that companies producing them consider proprietary – and, in the aggregate, large enough to provide a picture of foreign defense markets only available to regulators. Much of that data, those who have had access to USXports say, isn't even released to Congress.
I don’t know about you, but it all sounds very above board and swamp-draining to me.