World roundup: April 26-27 2025
Stories from Syria, North Korea, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 26, 1803: At around 1 in the afternoon a hail of some 3000 rock fragments, weighing around 37 kilograms in total, rains down upon the town of L’Aigle in France’s Normandy region. A French scientist named Jean-Baptiste Biot was dispatched to catalog and study the event by the French Academy of Sciences. His fieldwork determined conclusively that the fragments were of extraterrestrial origin, establishing near-definitive proof for the hitherto widely questioned existence of meteors. Biot’s work at L’Aigle birthed an entirely new field of study, meteoritics, and was the first of many significant scientific contributions he would make in his career.
April 26, 2005: Under considerable international pressure due to its suspected involvement in the February 14 assassination of then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic al-Hariri, the Syrian government withdraws the last of its occupation forces from Lebanon. Syria had invaded Lebanon in May 1976 during that country’s civil war, in support of Maronite and conservative Muslim factions and in opposition to the Palestine Liberation Organization and leftist militias. Tensions later emerged between the Syrians and some Maronite leaders, including former Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Initially the Syrian military presence in Lebanon was legitimized by the Arab League under the auspices of a peacekeeping force, but by the mid-1980s the Arab League had stopped renewing its mandate and the Syrian presence in Lebanon could be considered a full-fledged military occupation.
April 27, 1960: The Togolese Republic declares its independence from France. Commemorated annually as Independence Day in Togo.
April 27, 1961: The Republic of Sierra Leone gains its independence from the United Kingdom as the result of negotiations that had taken place the previous year. Commemorated annually as Independence Day in Sierra Leone.
April 27, 1978: The People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan, with the support of the Soviet Union, undertakes a coup against Afghan President Mohammed Daoud Khan that is known as the “Saur Revolution.” PDPA leader Nur Muhammad Taraki assumed the presidency after Khan’s execution on April 28, and mismanaged things so badly that his own party ousted and executed him in September 1979. That incident led directly to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and, with few exceptions, Afghanistan was in a state of war until the US withdrawal in 2021.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Syrian Kurdish political parties held a summit in Qamishli on Saturday and came away with a statement calling for a “decentralized democratic” Syrian state. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa responded on Sunday by flatly rejecting “any attempt to impose a partition or create separatist cantons under the terms of federalism or self-autonomy without a national consensus,” according to a statement issued by his office. There are varying degrees of “decentralization” so this is probably not an unbridgeable divide. But while Sharaa’s administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces group have broadly agreed on integrating the SDF into the Syrian state they clearly have some way to go before they agree on the terms of that integration.
Reuters reported on Saturday that Sharaa’s government has responded to the list of demands that the Trump administration wants to see fulfilled in return for sanctions relief. Syrian officials have apparently passed a note to the US government outlining their efforts to comply with some of those demands—chiefly the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles and cooperation in efforts to locate missing US nationals in Syria—but asking for further discussion on others. In particular they seem to be balking at a US demand that foreign fighters be excluded from senior government or security posts and another demand that the US military be given free rein to carry out “counterterrorism” activities within Syria.
LEBANON
I don’t get to do a lot of meta/media analysis in this newsletter because there’s already too much going on here just trying to stay on top of what’s happening, without spending a lot of time on how people are talking about what’s happening. But consider, for a moment, the progression of events that brought us to the point where this headline is supposed to be coherent: “Israel strikes south Beirut for third time since ceasefire began.” That must be some ceasefire, huh?
More accurately we might say that the Israeli military (IDF) bombed the southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahieh on Sunday for the third time since it entered into a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in November that it apparently had no intention of honoring. I haven’t seen any indication of casualties but the IDF did kill at least one person in another strike on southern Lebanon on Sunday. It claimed that the target was a “Hezbollah militant.” Lebanese President Joseph Aoun appealed to the US and French governments, “as guarantors of the ceasefire agreement, to assume their responsibilities and compel Israel to halt its attacks immediately.” I wouldn’t expect much help to come from those corners.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani claimed on Sunday that there’s been “a bit of progress” in Gaza ceasefire talks in recent days. I have no idea what he’s talking about, but Israeli Mossad boss David Barnea did visit Doha on Thursday so it would seem the PM is referring to something that happened during that encounter. He also outlined what may be the key obstacle to a deal, which is that Hamas is offering to release its remaining captives in return for an end to the conflict while the Israeli government is demanding the former but won’t guarantee the latter. Hamas’s refusal to disarm is also standing in the way insofar as the Israelis might be more willing to end their genocidal campaign in the event of a full Hamas surrender. Of course even that might not be enough to dissuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from his dream of implementing Donald Trump’s ethnic cleansing plan.
Elsewhere, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has named confidante Hussein al-Sheikh to fill the newly created roles of Palestine Liberation Organization vice chairman and PA vice president. This puts Sheikh in the position of Abbas’s likely successor—or at least marks him as Abbas’s chosen successor. Sheikh has served as a PLO liaison to the Israeli government and this decision was clearly made with appeasement and continuity in mind. That, and his closeness to the mostly loathed Abbas, probably won’t make him a popular choice as heir apparent.
YEMEN
Another round of US airstrikes killed at least two people in Sanaa overnight, according to Houthi-affiliated media. At least nine other people were wounded in strikes that these reports say targeted residential neighborhoods in the southern and western parts of the city. Houthi media reported eight people killed on Sunday but details beyond that are unavailable.
IRAN
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered an “investigation” into an apparently massive explosion that rocked Iran’s Shahid Rajaee seaport on Saturday, killing at least 40 people and wounding over 1200 more at last count. There’s no indication at this point of foul play, or at least none that Iranian authorities are sharing publicly. But there is some suspicion that the blast was ignited by a component used in manufacturing solid rocket fuel, though Iranian officials are so far denying that any military supplies were being stockpiled at the port.
Another round of nuclear talks between US and Iranian negotiators in Oman on Saturday produced another agreement to meet again in one week’s time. That will make four straight weeks of meetings, which is in itself a positive sign though it remains unclear whether the parties are actually making much headway toward a deal. This week’s session did include a “technical” portion, which suggests that the political discussions so far have generated at least some basic agreement on broad principles that the technical discussions are then supposed to turn into actionable steps forward. That is an indication of progress although it also means that negotiators probably haven’t really broached any especially divisive issues (like the future of Iran’s uranium enrichment program) just yet.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
The Pakistani military claimed on Sunday that its forces had killed 54 “militants” who were attempting to enter the country from Afghanistan. The term it used to describe them, khawarij, suggests that they were Pakistani Taliban fighters or at least that Pakistani authorities are characterizing them as such. The military also alluded to “foreign masters” who had sent them into Pakistan, which may refer to the Afghan government, the Indian government, or most likely both.
Meanwhile, with tension between Pakistan and India spiking after Tuesday’s terrorist attack in Kashmir, The Diplomat’s Akhilesh Pillalamarri suggests that picking a fight with India might serve a purpose for the Pakistani government:
Pakistan itself seems to be barely holding together after years of economic and political turmoil. This turmoil includes unrest in Balochistan, continued tensions with Afghanistan, and violence in Pashtun-majority areas in Pakistan, the arrest of popular leader Imran Khan in 2023, and continuous bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one as recent as last month.
Both India’s population and economy dwarf Pakistan’s. At the start of the century, Pakistan’s economy was a fifth the size of India’s, but now it is a tenth. As Pakistan has stagnated, India has grown, becoming a major military and economic power, and an important player on the world stage.
So what does Pakistan gain from doing something that could risk massive retaliation from India while it is in such a perilous state? One of the less quantifiable but possible benefits is that a war with India is one of the few things that can unify Pakistanis and distract from its numerous problems. Maybe Pakistan — like Hamas in Gaza in 2023 — is aware of its gradual slide into irrelevance, and wants to act while it still can.
This sort of analysis may be a bit premature. As Pillalamarri notes, an investigation is needed to determine what, if any, role Islamabad played in Tuesday’s attack—though history suggests that it probably did play some role. And there are also plenty of compelling reasons why the Pakistanis would not want to provoke a fight with India, particularly via an act that has left most international sentiment on India’s side.
INDIA
While we’re on that subject, the Indian and Pakistani militaries have now exchanged fire across Kashmir’s Line of Control for three nights running. Indian officials blamed the Pakistanis for firing “unprovoked” on Sunday and there’s been no comment from Pakistan as far as I know.
PHILIPPINES
Chinese media reported on Saturday that the country’s coast guard seized control of Sandy Cay (also known as “Tiexian Reef”) in the South China Sea earlier this month. The reef is located in the Spratly island chain and is situated near the island of Thitu, which is the second largest of the Spratlys and houses a Philippine military facility. According to Philippine officials the Chinese personnel planted a flag on the reef and then left, though the Chinese reports are claiming that they also “collect[ed] video evidence regarding the illegal activities of the Philippine side.” Philippine personnel have now also landed on the reef and displayed their own national flag in a response to the Chinese action. China and the Philippines both claim Thitu island, with the latter administering it at present.
NORTH KOREA
Axios’s Barak Ravid, citing “a senior U.S. official and three additional sources,” reported on Sunday that “the Trump administration has quietly been holding discussions and consulting outside experts as it considers options for potentially restarting dialogue with North Korea.” According to Ravid this is a “relatively low” priority for the administration at present, but given that Donald Trump can shift priorities abruptly his handlers want to be ready if/when he decides that it’s time to rekindle his bromance with Kim Jong-un. However, it’s unclear whether Kim actually wants to reengage with the US, given that his previous dalliance with Trump went nowhere and that he’s aligned himself much more closely to Russia since then.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudan Doctors Network is accusing the Rapid Support Forces militant group of having massacred at least 31 civilians, including children, in the city of Omdurman on Sunday, calling the act a “war crime and a crime against humanity.” While the militants have been nearly driven out of Sudan’s capital region they do apparently retain parts of western and southwestern Omdurman and the Sudanese military has been battling them there. Al Jazeera is reporting that some of the victims appeared to be connected to the military-aligned “Barra Brigade” group.
LIBYA
Unspecified attackers killed a Libyan general named Ali Ramadan al-Rayani at his home in Tripoli on Sunday. Lebanese media is reporting that he killed three of the attackers in the incident. The Tripoli-based “Government of National Unity” is investigating. It’s likely this was the result of some sort of factional dispute though the possibility that the rival government in eastern Libya moved against Rayani cannot be ruled out.
NIGER
An apparent jihadist attack on a military unit in southwestern Niger’s Tillabéri region on Friday left at least 12 soldiers dead. The attack took place near a village in the “tri-border region” close to Mali and Burkina Faso, an area that has been plagued by jihadist activity for several years.
NIGERIA
Another apparent jihadist attack left at least 14 farmers dead near the Cameroonian border in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Saturday. Authorities are blaming Boko Haram for the attack, though Nigerian officials sometimes attribute attacks to Boko Haram that later turn out to have been the responsibility of the rival Islamic State West Africa Province group. That said, Boko Haram has been active near the border with Cameroon of late.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
According to Russian media, Vladimir Putin has congratulated his military commanders on their “victory” in driving Ukrainian forces out of Kursk oblast, though at this point it’s unclear whether they’ve actually accomplished that task. Putin on Saturday claimed that the Russian army had “expelled” the Ukrainians, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that Kyiv still has forces in both Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. It sounds like the Russians have dislodged the Ukrainians from the last village they held in Kursk but not yet from the province altogether. Presumably it’s only a matter of time at this point.
UKRAINE
Zelensky met with Donald Trump prior to Pope Francis’s funeral on Saturday and apparently made enough of an impression that Trump wondered via social media afterward whether Putin might not be “tapping [him] along” in their discussions around settling the war in Ukraine. Trump further insisted that there is “no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas” and said that the continuation of such Russian attacks “makes me think that maybe [Putin] doesn't want to stop the war.” He even threatened new sanctions on Russia. This is a far cry from where Trump was just a day or two earlier, when he was alternately blaming Zelensky for delays in the negotiations and insisting that he was “very close” to securing a deal, and in part this reflects his tendency to fixate on the most recent thing he’s been told about any particular situation. Still, if the impression he took away from Saturday’s encounter sticks it could prompt a major shift in the US approach to this conflict.
ICELAND
The Wall Street Journal reports that the increasing international attention on the Arctic and US designs on nearby Greenland are pushing Iceland toward Europe and toward militarization:
The U.S. considers both Iceland and Greenland critical to homeland security. Greenland sits along a path that Russian nuclear warheads targeting America could trace across the sky, so is vital to missile detection and defenses. Russian submarines, meanwhile, must run a gantlet near Iceland that NATO calls the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. Gap. Iceland is a high point along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, an enormous and largely undersea mountain range created by the continental division. Russian subs, which have recently ventured closer to America, are forced to rise nearer the surface as they cross the ridge, making detection easier.
Now Icelanders are debating whether they need to get more active on defense and whether to restart EU accession talks, which they broke off in 2013. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir plans to hold a referendum on the issue by 2027, once her government has addressed issues she sees as more pressing—though some Icelanders see Trump’s policies as pushing them toward the bloc sooner.
One pressing issue is a national-defense strategy review, now under discussion. Public debate on the topic is important “because military activity has sometimes been under the radar in Iceland,” Frostadottir said in an interview. “It’s been uncomfortable to talk about.”
Iceland, like other Nordic countries, has long tried to keep the Arctic from being militarized. With that no longer possible, Icelanders are assessing what expanded defenses might look like.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, at Tom Dispatch, William Hartung considers the “Department of Government Efficiency’s” shocking failure to find any apparent cost savings in one particular federal agency:
Under the guise of efficiency, the Trump administration is taking a sledgehammer to essential programs and agencies that are the backbone of America’s civilian government. The virtual elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and plans to shut down the Department of Education are just the most visible examples of a campaign that includes layoffs of budget experts, public health officials, scientists, and other critical personnel whose work undergirds the daily operations of government and provides the basic services needed by businesses, families, and individuals alike. Many of those services can make the difference between solvency and poverty, health and illness, or even, in some cases, life and death for vulnerable populations.
The speed with which civilian programs and agencies are being slashed in the second Trump era gives away the true purpose of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In the context of the Musk-Trump regime, “efficiency” is a cover story for a greed-driven ideological campaign to radically reduce the size of government without regard for the human consequences.
So far, the only agency that seems to have escaped the ire of the DOGE is — don’t be shocked! — the Pentagon. After misleading headlines suggested that its topline would be cut by as much as 8% annually for the next five years as part of that supposed efficiency campaign, the real plan was revealed — finding savings in some parts of the Pentagon only to invest whatever money might be saved in — yes! — other military programs without any actual reductions in the department’s overall budget. Then, during a White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7th, Trump announced that “we’re going to be approving a budget, and I’m proud to say, actually, the biggest one we’ve ever done for the military . . . $1 trillion. Nobody has seen anything like it.”
So far, cuts to make room for new kinds of military investments have been limited to the firing of civilian Pentagon employees and the dismantling of a number of internal strategy and research departments. Activities that funnel revenue to weapons contractors have barely been touched — hardly surprising given that Musk himself presides over a significant Pentagon contractor, SpaceX.
The legitimacy of his role should, of course, be subject to question. After all, he’s an unelected billionaire with major government contracts who, in recent months, seemed to have garnered more power than the entire cabinet combined. But cabinet members are subject to Senate confirmation, as well as financial disclosure and conflict-of-interest rules. Not Musk, though. Not only hasn’t he been vetted by Congress, but he’s been allowed to maintain his role in SpaceX.