World roundup: April 19-20 2025
Stories from Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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Happy Easter to those who are celebrating!
TODAY IN HISTORY
April 19, 1775: Two military engagements between British regulars and American colonial militia in the Massachusetts towns of Lexington and Concord mark the start of the American Revolution. The British force succeeded in destroying some cannons and ammunition at Concord but was driven back into Boston by the militia. A large (15,000 man) militia army recruited from across New England then surrounded and besieged the city, which the British evacuated the following March.
April 19, 1943: The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, the largest World War II Jewish revolt against Nazi rule, begins in occupied Poland. Nazi forces entered the Ghetto to effect another mass transfer of Jews to the Treblinka death camp, similar to the previous year’s Grossaktion Warsaw, but met with armed resistance. They began a month-long suppression campaign that included the systematic torching of homes and other buildings within the Ghetto. The uprising ended on May 16 with the Nazis having killed outright or transferred (to death camps) some 56,065 Jews according to official German figures.
April 20, 1752: A small battle south of the city (village at the time) of Shwebo marks the start of the Konbaung–Hanthawaddy War, which helped consolidate the modern nation of Myanmar. An “army” (of around 40 men) belonging to the nascent Konbaung dynasty, under its founder Alaungpaya, defeated a small military unit detached by the southern Hanthawaddy kingdom to pacify the region. The war ended with a Konbaung victory that reunited upper and lower (northern and southern) Myanmar (Burma if you prefer) under a Bamar ruling family and marked the final time that the Mon people of southern Myanmar were able to establish an independent state.
April 20, 1792: The French Assembly declares war against the Habsburg monarchy, kicking off nearly ten years of conflict sometimes called the “French Revolutionary Wars.” This conflict is perhaps more properly broken into the wars of the First Coalition (1792-1797) and Second Coalition (1798-1802), referring to the international alliances arrayed against the French First Republic. The Republic emerged victorious from both wars. They’re distinguished from the five subsequent coalition wars (1805-1815) thanks to Napoleon, who brought the Republic to an end with his coronation as emperor in 1804.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
A shipment of wheat arrived at the Syrian port of Latakia on Sunday, which would be relatively commonplace if it weren’t for the fact that this is the first such shipment to reach Syria since the ouster of former leader Bashar al-Assad in December and it goes without saying that it is badly needed. There’s no confirmation as to the source of the grain but ship tracking suggests it came from Russia, which may indicate a resumption of regular food shipments and thus some degree of improvement in the post-Assad Russian-Syrian relationship.
As for the US-Syrian relationship, Damascus’s hopes of getting out from under sanctions may be diminishing. The Trump administration has reportedly broadened its list of demands for the current Syrian government from destroying the country’s chemical weapons stockpiles to expelling Palestinian militants and some sort of “crackdown” on “extremists.” Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government is more or less comprised of extremists, so cracking down on them might prove challenging. At the same time the administration is considering a plan to halve the US troop presence in Syria from its current level of around 2000. With Sharaa’s government and the Syrian Democratic Forces group having reached a general accord the need for US forces to protect the SDF has lessened somewhat.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least two people in airstrikes on southern Lebanon on Saturday and two more on Sunday. It’s claiming that all were affiliated with Hezbollah. At least three Lebanese soldiers also died in southern Lebanon on Sunday when ammunition they were transporting exploded. The Lebanese military has been working to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah’s military sites in concordance with November’s ceasefire agreement, but it’s been slow going and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun made it clear on Sunday that the government will not be “rushed” to conclude such a “delicate” process. Hezbollah for its part is refusing to disarm as long as the IDF continues occupying Lebanese territory and operating in Lebanese airspace.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Gazan health officials reported on Saturday that the IDF had killed at least 92 people between April 17 and 19, while wounding at least 219 and leaving “dozens” missing and/or trapped under rubble. Al Jazeera’s liveblog had reported at least 32 dead on Sunday at time of writing. The apparent surge in violence appears to have been in response to Hamas’s rejection of the latest Israeli truce gambit, which like previous efforts substitutes another temporary truce and partial captive exchange for the ceasefire and full captive exchange to which Israeli leaders agreed in principle back in January. The proposal hinted at a path toward that ceasefire but only in the event Hamas were to disarm, a line the group remains unwilling to cross.
In other items:
The captive who has been at the center of recent negotiations, US national Edan Alexander, may be dead. Hamas claimed on Tuesday that it had “lost contact” with the group that was holding Alexander after an Israeli airstrike, with Qassam Brigades spokesperson “Abu Ubaydah” suggesting that the IDF “is deliberately trying to kill him and hence relieve themselves from the pressure caused by the dual-citizen prisoners in order to continue its genocide against our people.” It’s announced no change in his status since then. Hamas could be obfuscating Alexander’s whereabouts to try to raise pressure on the Trump administration to force Israel into a ceasefire, but if he really is dead then any US impetus toward reaching a new ceasefire deal may have died with him.
An IDF investigation is blaming “professional failures” for its massacre of 15 first responders in southern Gaza on March 23, which was followed by the decision to bulldoze their bodies and their vehicles into a hastily-dug mass grave. According to Israeli reports, the “deputy commander” who allegedly gave the order to fire on a group of clearly marked ambulances out of supposed fear of attack has been sacked, and his commanding officer has been “reprimanded.” The IDF is continuing to assert, without offering evidence, that six of the 15 victims were in fact Hamas fighters.
Israeli officials estimated on Wednesday that they’ve turned 30 percent of Gaza into a buffer zone-er, I’m sorry, I mean into an “Operational Security Perimeter.” Much of that territorial expansion has come since the end of the truce in early March and has contributed heavily to the displacement of some 500,000 people since then. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal remains the implementation of Donald Trump’s ethnic cleaning plan, with those Palestinians who survive the bombing and starvation eventually relocated to parts that remain unknown.
On the subject of Hamas’s disarmament, The Wall Street Journal claimed on Wednesday that the group is having trouble “coming up with the cash it needs to pay its rank and file.” Allegedly this is partly a function of the Israeli humanitarian blockade, which has deprived the group of several revenue streams while also starving the territory’s civilian population. The IDF has also been killing officials connected to the group’s political and fund-raising operations, and there are questions about the logistics of getting payment to Hamas fighters under present conditions. It’s unclear how salient an issue this is at a time when Palestinians are literally fighting for their lives, but eventually these fighters may drift away without some basic financial support.
French President Emmanuel Macron hinted on Wednesday that his government might recognize Palestinian statehood later this year—perhaps as soon as June—in exchange for recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia and potentially several other Arab states. His statement naturally drew a sharp rebuke from the Israeli government, even though it could secure a major diplomatic objective for Israel at relatively little cost (Palestinian recognition by other European states in recent months has not had much tangible effect).
YEMEN
The US military conducted a series of airstrikes on the Yemeni port city of Hudaydah on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday that killed over 80 people, making this to my knowledge the deadliest US attack on Yemen to date. Additional strikes on Sanaa killed at least three people on Saturday and at least 12 more overnight into Sunday. There are reports of heavy damage to Hudaydah’s Ras Isa seaport, through which most of northern Yemen’s humanitarian aid flows, and there are particular concerns about damage to the facility’s fuel storage units. Heavy damage could cause fuel to leak into the Red Sea and exacerbate fuel shortages across northern Yemen.
Meanwhile, with its airstrikes having inflicted considerable suffering on Yemenis without having a noticeable impact on the Houthi movement, the Trump administration is considering support for a new ground operation by forces connected with the nominal Yemeni government. Said government is apparently planning such an operation anyway, hoping to capitalize on the airstrikes. There is no reason to believe that reigniting the Yemeni civil war in full will lead to a positive outcome for anyone involved and it’s unclear whether the Saudi or Emirati governments, which effectively control rival factions within the Yemeni government, would be willing to go along with such an effort.
IRAN
Incredibly there’s been some progress in nuclear talks between the US and Iran, after not one but two apparently successful diplomatic encounters in Oman on April 12 and Italy on Saturday. Both of these rounds have involved indirect negotiations brokered by Omani officials, and while it’s unlikely they’ve made any significant tangible advances toward a deal they have agreed to meet in Oman again this coming Saturday and to hold technical negotiations (that could lay the groundwork for tangible advances) in the interim. The ultimate success or failure of these talks may turn on the Trump administration’s willingness to countenance a civilian Iranian nuclear program and, according to Reuters, to provide Tehran with some sort of guarantee that Donald Trump isn’t going to chuck this deal in the trash as he did with the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement.
In the meantime, the Israeli government is still reportedly preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has told Israeli officials that the US will not support such an operation while it’s pursuing a diplomatic agreement with the Iranians. Netanyahu has pitched the Biden and Trump administrations on the merits of a massive US-led strike to try to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and has been rejected both times. Apparently the Israelis are now considering a “limited” strike that wouldn’t require US support but would, in all likelihood, cause the Iranians to walk away from the negotiating table. That would help him restate his case for the massive US attack.
ASIA
MYANMAR
The AP reported on Saturday on the course of the recovery effort following Myanmar’s massive March 28 earthquake, and it’s about what you’d expect under the circumstances. Workers attempting to restore basic services, clear debris, and recover bodies are facing a lack of resources on the one hand and the challenge of frequent major aftershocks on the other. The latest figures from Myanmar’s ruling junta put the death toll from the quake at 3726, with 129 people still missing and more than 5000 injured. International rescue teams have been returning home as the operation has transitioned from rescue to recovery.
CHINA
As the Trump administration continues to cast about for a rationale for its chaotic tariff policy, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that it may ask countries looking for tariff relief to take steps to “isolate” China. Those steps could include preventing Chinese firms from using those countries to try to evade tariffs on Chinese goods and even ceasing the importation of Chinese products altogether. The administration’s post-facto search for a reason why it imposed tariffs—raising revenue, reshoring manufacturing, punishing evildoers, etc.—may strike the reader as ludicrous, but…well, it is pretty ludicrous, and it’s not even clear the policy makes sense to anyone other than Donald Trump himself.
SOUTH KOREA
The South Korean government has scheduled the snap election to replace former President Yoon Suk-yeol for June 3. Yoon was removed from office earlier this month, following his impeachment over an attempted self-coup back in December. Polling suggests that Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is the favorite to succeed Yoon, who defeated him in the 2022 election. But Lee is currently facing several legal issues that could impact on his candidacy, so his election is not assured.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Rapid Support Forces militants appear to be closing in on the seizure of Al-Fashir, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state and the last major city in the Darfur region that is under military control. The militants seized control of the nearby Zamzam displaced persons camp last Sunday, displacing as many as 400,000 people according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration. RSF attacks have killed over 400 people in and around Al-Fashir over the past couple of weeks, including at least 57 just on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the RSF marked the two year anniversary of its war against the Sudanese military on Tuesday by finally unveiling its very own Sudanese government, which it’s calling the “Government of Peace and Unity” in what has to be considered a finalist for the Euphemism Hall of Fame. The RSF and allied groups signed a new political charter back in February that serves as the legal (to the extent such considerations still apply) foundation for this administration. Notably they’re characterizing this as a Sudanese government rather than a government just over the RSF-held parts of the country, so they’re apparently not at the partition/secession stage just yet though that is a potential concern the longer this conflict continues.
ALGERIA
Relations between the governments of Algeria and France hit a nadir on Monday, when the Algerian Foreign Ministry expelled 12 French diplomats from the country. Regular readers may note that when we last checked in on these two countries, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot was characterizing bilateral relations as “back to normal” following several particularly frosty months. But French prosecutors indicted three Algerians (including a consular worker) the previous Friday over alleged involvement in a kidnapping last year, which apparently prompted Monday’s expulsion. The French government retaliated on Tuesday by expelling 12 Algerian diplomatic staffers and recalling its ambassador from Algiers.
BENIN
Al-Qaeda’s Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin affiliate is reportedly claiming that its fighters have killed some 70 soldiers in raids on two military outposts in northern Benin. It’s unclear from the reporting when these attacks are supposed to have taken place and there’s no confirmation of this claim from either independent media or the Beninese government. Northern Benin is increasingly suffering from jihadist violence spilling over from Burkina Faso and Niger.
UPDATE (4/23/25): Beninese authorities are now acknowledging at least 54 dead, so it does seem like JNIM’s claim was at least in the ballpark.
SOUTH SUDAN
The South Sudanese military announced on Sunday that it had retaken control of the town of Nasir, in the country’s Upper Nile state. It has been battling “White Army” militants in that area for several weeks, during which the tenuous political condominium between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar—who is allegedly tied to the militants—has broken down, threatening to plunge the country back into full-scale civil war. South Sudanese forces were able to regain their footing in Upper Nile with the support of the allied Ugandan military.
GABON
To I assume no great surprise, Gabonese junta leader Brice Oligui Nguema won Saturday’s presidential election with a comfortable and entirely believable 90.35 percent of the vote according to the official tally. The alleged turnout was 70.4 percent for the contest, which caps off Gabon’s transition back to nominally democratic rule after Nguema’s 2023 coup. His victory ensures that the junta will continue running the country albeit under a new civilian veneer.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian military commander Valery Gerasimov declared Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk oblast all but over on Saturday, telling Vladimir Putin in a televised encounter that Russian forces have regained control of “99.5” percent of the province. The Russian military claimed on Saturday that it had retaken one of the two Kursk villages that had still been under Ukrainian control. Also on Saturday the Russians and Ukrainians engaged in another prisoner swap, with 277 Ukrainian POWs and 246 Russian POWs being repatriated along with 31 and 15 wounded soldiers, respectively.
UKRAINE
Putin declared an “Easter ceasefire” on Saturday that seems to have entailed fairly little in the way of the actual ceasing of fire, with both the Russian and Ukrainian governments accusing each other of multiple violations. Air raid sirens could be heard in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities just hours after Putin’s declaration, while the Russian military is alleging a whopping 1344 Ukrainian violations in a little over a day—including over 900 drone strikes alone, which seems difficult to imagine though of course I wouldn’t presume to question the Russian government’s truthfulness. Unsurprisingly Russian officials have rejected any suggestion of an extension.
CNN reported on Friday that the Trump administration is prepared to recognize Russia’s claim on Crimea as part of a peace settlement. This is not hugely surprising, given that the administration is anxious to reach a peace deal and that Crimea really is lost to Ukraine in any realistic sense. But it’s still unlikely to go over well with the Ukrainian government, which at the end of the day does have to participate in whatever peace arrangement the administration might negotiate. The report said nothing about the four other Ukrainian provinces that Russian partially controls—Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. The administration might aim to treat those as de facto partitioned without any sort of formal recognition. Both Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have suggested in recent days that the US could walk away from Ukrainian peace talks unless they make substantial progress over the next few weeks.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
In something of a surprise, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa won last Sunday’s presidential runoff fairly handily, defeating challenger Luisa González with 55.8 percent of the vote according to official figures. Noboa’s win wasn’t itself a surprise so much as the margin, as he’d barely edged past González by 0.17 percent of the vote in the first round and most polling had pointed at least toward a tighter race if not a González victory. González has hinted at formally challenging the outcome though her chances of getting anywhere with that appear slim. Noboa, whose violent crackdown on crime apparently secured his reelection, does not control the new National Assembly outright and may have difficulties passing legislation.
EL SALVADOR
There’s been a good deal of attention in recent days on the case of Kilmar Ábrego García, the Salvadoran national whom the US government admits it “erroneously” deported to El Salvador’s CECOT concentration camp last month. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele visited the White House on Monday, where he and Trump joked about Ábrego García’s case while absurdly insisting that they are both powerless to facilitate his return to the US as the US Supreme Court recently ordered. Trump also reiterated his intention to start disappearing US citizens into CECOT, which you might dismiss as hyperbole but if they’re going to ignore a Supreme Court order to return Ábrego García then they could just as easily ignore any future order to return US nationals similarly shipped off to detention abroad. It may also be worth noting that Bukele is reportedly planning to double CECOT’s holding capacity, presumably intending to sell the extra space to the US.
US Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) visited El Salvador after Bukele’s trip in an effort to see Ábrego García, who was a Maryland resident before his incarceration. After initially running into resistance Van Hollen was able to meet Ábrego García near the end of his trip, dispelling at least for the moment speculation that he’d been killed in Salvadoran custody. According to Van Hollen, Ábrego García said he’d been transferred from CECOT to a less onerous facility but was still incarcerated. Bukele apparently arranged for the two men to be photographed speaking across a table featuring a couple of prominently placed fake margaritas, I guess to convey the impression that Ábrego García is really on some sort of beach vacation.
MEXICO
NBC News reported a couple of weeks ago that the Trump administration has had “early stage” internal discussions about undertaking a drone campaign against Mexican cartels. So far, at least, these discussions have focused on the possibility of drone strikes conducted with Mexican cooperation—the two governments are already collaborating on a stepped-up US surveillance operation—though ominously the NBC report says that the administration has not “ruled out” unilateral action.
UNITED STATES
Finally, it may be time to start considering how much longer US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is going to remain in that post. At least three senior DOD figures, all appointed either by Hegseth or by his own appointees, have been suspended in recent days as part of an expanding investigation into multiple leaks from the department. This investigation comes after Hegseth was heavily implicated in the “Signalgate” leak scandal and now, incredibly, The New York Times is reporting that he blurted out details of the same Yemeni bombing operation in another unsecured group chat:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared detailed information about forthcoming strikes in Yemen on March 15 in a private Signal group chat that included his wife, brother and personal lawyer, according to four people with knowledge of the chat.
Some of those people said that the information Mr. Hegseth shared on the Signal chat included the flight schedules for the F/A-18 Hornets targeting the Houthis in Yemen — essentially the same attack plans that he shared on a separate Signal chat the same day that mistakenly included the editor of The Atlantic.
Mr. Hegseth’s wife, Jennifer, a former Fox News producer, is not a Defense Department employee, but she has traveled with him overseas and drawn criticism for accompanying her husband to sensitive meetings with foreign leaders.
Mr. Hegseth’s brother Phil and Tim Parlatore, who continues to serve as his personal lawyer, both have jobs in the Pentagon, but it is not clear why either would need to know about upcoming military strikes aimed at the Houthis in Yemen.
The previously unreported existence of a second Signal chat in which Mr. Hegseth shared highly sensitive military information is the latest in a series of developments that have put his management and judgment under scrutiny.
I know he used to star on Donald Trump’s favorite TV program and he even promised to quit getting drunk for this job—the jury’s still out on that one—but at some point I have to think Hegseth’s misadventures will become too shambolic even by this administration’s standards.
A second signal chat has hit the pentagon