World roundup: April 22 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 22, 1809: Napoleon’s army defeats the Austrians under Archduke Charles at the Battle of Eckmühl, in Bavaria. The victory is considered a turning point in the 1809 War of the Fifth Coalition, because it blunted Austria’s invasion of Bavaria, which had caught the French leader somewhat by surprise, and allowed him to go on the offensive by invading Austria.
April 22, 1948: In one of the last major engagements before the civil war in Palestine turned into the Arab-Israeli War, the Jewish paramilitary organization Haganah captures the Arab sections of the port city of Haifa from the Palestinians. Haifa was one of six largely mixed cities that the Haganah captured between the start of April and the middle of May. By the end of May, between voluntary flight and involuntary expulsions the number of Arabs living in those cities collectively dropped from an estimated 177,000 to an estimated 13,000.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
The Syrian government has arrested two senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad figures, as confirmed by both Syrian and PIJ officials. There’s no indication as to why they’ve been detained—PIJ claims they haven’t been given a reason and Damascus isn’t commenting—but as I mentioned on Sunday it’s been reported that the Trump administration is pressuring the Syrian government to take a harder line with respect to the presence of Palestinian militant figures in their country. PIJ is also affiliated with Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” network, which puts it at ideological odds with Syria’s new jihadist administration.
Speaking of that administration, The New York Times reported a couple of days ago on its March massacre of Alawites in one city in Syria’s Tartus province:
The city, Baniyas, was the site of some of the worst violence in Syria last month, when thousands of armed men stormed the country’s Mediterranean coast and killed more than 1,600 civilians, mostly from the Alawite religious minority.
Over three days, gunmen went house to house, summarily executing civilians and opening fire in the streets, according to dozens of residents who spoke to The New York Times.
My colleagues and I managed to report from the city for nearly a day as the killings unfolded. What we found was evidence of a massacre — and a broad failure by the new, rebel-led government to protect Alawites, the group that dominated Syria’s elite circles during the Assad family’s decades-long dictatorship.
That characterization is not entirely fair. The Assad family’s inner circle included a large portion of Alawites, but the vast majority of that community had no more to do with that government than the Sunnis who rebelled against it and now fill the ranks of the new government’s security forces. Describing this violence as fueled by “revenge” against the Assad “regime,” the way the NYT does, elides the reality that it is sectarian in nature. Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has talked about protecting Syria’s minority communities, but he either can’t or won’t extend that protection to the Alawites.
LEBANON
Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed at least two people on Tuesday, including a senior figure in the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Jamaa Islamiya party, Hussein Atwi. According to AFP, Atwi led JI’s armed wing, the “al-Fajr Forces.” Israeli officials are claiming that a second strike killed a “local Hezbollah commander” near the city of Tyre.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 32 Palestinians in Gaza on Tuesday, including 11 people in one house in Khan Younis and seven members of a single family in Gaza City. IDF airstrikes also targeted bulldozers brought into Gaza during the six week truce that lapsed in early March in strikes on the northern part of the territory. Those machines were being used to recover bodies buried under the rubble of previous Israeli airstrikes.
Hamas has sent another delegation to Cairo to discuss what one of the group’s officials characterized to AFP as “new ideas” regarding a potential Gaza ceasefire. It’s unclear what exactly those “new ideas” might be, but The New Arab reported on Tuesday that Egyptian and Qatari mediators have more or less gone for broke with a proposal for a “five to seven year” ceasefire. Hamas under this arrangement would release all of its remaining captives, give up administrative control over Gaza, and agree to “lay down its arms”—though there’s apparently some ambiguity as to whether this would mean giving up those arms or just refraining from their use. Gaza’s reconstruction would be carried out without the ethnic cleansing of the territory, in contrast with Donald Trump’s proposal and Benjamin Netanyahu’s desires. According to the report this plan has gotten backing from the Trump administration, which is allegedly going to “pressure” the Israelis to accept it. Let’s say I’ll believe that when I see it.
ASIA
INDIA
Gunman killed at least 26 people in India’s Kashmir region on Tuesday when they opened fire on a group of tourists near the town of Pahalgam. At least 36 people were reportedly wounded, some seriously, so there’s a chance that death toll could rise. There’s been no shortage of Kashmiri militant activity over the past few years but this is the most significant attack in terms of civilian casualties in quite some time, and it’s drawn substantial outcry from Indian officials, internationally, and even from some Kashmiri separatist political leaders. No group has yet claimed responsibility.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s ruling junta has extended its post-earthquake ceasefire through at least April 30. It adopted a temporary ceasefire earlier this month, to facilitate recovery efforts, that was supposed to expire on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, AFP reported on Tuesday that the Chinese government has dispatched a “team” to Myanmar to monitor the ceasefire it brokered between the junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army rebel group back in January. As part of that process, apparently, the MNDAA is returning control of the key city of Lashio to the junta, and local media has reported on signs that junta forces are coming back to the city. The rebels seized Lashio, which had hosted the Myanmar military’s northeastern command, last year in what at the time was seen as a huge setback for the junta. It seems the Chinese government found that intolerable and began cutting off “power, water and internet to the MNDAA's homeland region of Kokang” according to “a source close to the group.”
CHINA
While some Trump administration officials are insisting that the US and China will eventually have to negotiate a deal to end their nascent trade war, Responsible Statecraft’s Jake Werner wonders how far things could escalate if left unchecked:
China’s general practice is to meet each escalation from the United States with a proportionate response. It also has strong incentives to avoid unhinged reactions since it wants to use aggressive American measures against other countries to shore up diplomatic relations in the region and with Europe.
The same cannot be said of the Trump administration. Trump himself seems fixated on extracting a performance of submission to which Chinese leaders will never acquiesce. As his frustration mounts — and particularly if the Chinese economy does prove resilient to his assault — he will become more and more receptive to the national security team he built. In contrast to his own instincts, Trump’s top military and economic advisers are almost without exception committed to confrontation with China.
The reported contents of the Pentagon’s Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance suggest how easily economic warfare could slip toward military conflict. Defense Department leaders may seize on the collapse in U.S.–China relations to pursue the crash military buildup in Asia they have defined as “the cardinal objective of US grand strategy”.
AFRICA
BURKINA FASO
Burkina Faso’s ruling junta is claiming that it foiled a “major plot” to topple it last week, involving “current and former soldiers” in collaboration with what it called “terrorist leaders” intent on “plac[ing] the country under the supervision of an international organization.” I guess that would rule out jihadists, so I’m uncertain what is meant by “terrorist leaders.” According to Burkinabè Security Minister Mahamadou Sana, some of the “brains” behind the plot “are all located in Ivory Coast,” an accusation that probably isn’t going to do much for an already strained bilateral relationship. It’s likely the junta is exaggerating for effect, but there are reports that a number of military personnel were arrested last week and if true that would track with the revelation of some sort of anti-junta plot.
SOUTH SUDAN
The Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in Opposition (SPLA-IO), the armed wing of the opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition party, is claiming that South Sudanese military forces attacked one of its outposts in Central Equatoria state on Tuesday, not far from the capital city of Juba. As the SPLA-IO put it on social media, the attack was “repulsed” but the military then followed up with “an aerial attack targeting and destroying civilians’ property and public buildings” in the surrounding Panyume area.
ETHIOPIA
Addis Standard reports on another surge in violence in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, with the brunt of the casualties borne either by the Fano militia or by civilians:
The Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have announced a series of “military victories” against the Fano armed group in the Amhara region, claiming to have killed “more than 300 fighters in a single day in Gojam” alone.
The army’s announcement of the latest operation comes in the backdrop of several unconfirmed reports of heavy civilians’ casualties due to multiple drone strikes. It underscores an escalation of a conflict that has transformed Amhara regional state into a militarized zone and humanitarian crisis hotspot since the conflict started August 2023.
In a statement released over the easter weekend, the ENDF claimed to have conducted a “string of operations” across North Shewa and Gojjam zones of the region. It also claimed that in Basona Wereda of North Shewa, “four leaders” of the armed Fano militant group were “neutralized along with 50 armed fighters.”
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
At World Politics Review, John Boyce warns that the EU is increasingly confronting the challenge of water shortages:
The latest available data on the state of Europe’s water network, recently published by Eurostat, has revealed worrying trends regarding the future resilience of the continent’s water supplies. The problem of water scarcity, traditionally confined to southern Europe, now affects 34 percent of the EU population and almost 40 percent of the bloc’s land area. With critical industries set to triple consumption by 2030, water scarcity is fast becoming one of the most urgent challenges facing the EU and its member states.
There are a number of key factors contributing to Europe’s current water plight, the most obvious and pressing of which is climate change. Europe is already the world’s fastest-warming continent and recorded its hottest-ever summer in 2022. As the effects of climate change gather pace—the totemic 1.5 degree global warming limit agreed at the 2015 Paris Climate summit was breached over a full 12-month period for the first time in 2023—drought-affected areas have expanded northwards, with no less than 15 member states, including Germany, Romania, Bulgaria and France, now affected by seasonal water scarcity.
A second, more mundane challenge for Europe’s potable water supply is the longstanding failure to invest in aging pipe networks, which cause the continent to lose an astonishing 25 percent of its total freshwater supply to leaks in the system. Leakage rates vary wildly among member states, from 61 percent in Bulgaria to 5 percent in the Netherlands, and cost European businesses an estimated 80 billion euros per year.
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UKRAINE
The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin “offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine at the current front line” in conversations with Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff earlier this month. In effect the Russian military would suspend its operations after it finishes expelling Ukrainian forces from their small remaining foothold in Russia’s Kursk oblast, with no additional offensive action on Ukrainian soil. Among other things that would forestall a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine’s Sumy oblast, which lies across the border from Kursk.
If this is true it’s a fairly significant concession, in that Putin would apparently be giving up Moscow’s claims to the parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts—all of which the Russian government claims to have annexed in full—that are still under effective Ukrainian control. Given that Russian forces are still advancing in at least Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia—they control almost all of Luhansk and Kherson is another story—this could be meaningful. I say “could be” because it’s unclear whether the Russians would give up their legal claim on all four provinces in totality or simply permit their de facto partition. The latter could invite a renewed Russian invasion at some point in the future.
In return, as has been already reported, the US would recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea formally and would informally accept Russian occupation of those parts of mainland Ukraine that its military does control. It would also agree to bar Ukraine from NATO membership. It’s unclear how far the US proposal would require Ukraine to go—President Volodymyr Zelensky has steadfastly refused to recognize any Russian annexation, including of Crimea, but he may only be required to accept the status quo in a de facto sense. There are other sticking points, like Ukraine’s insistence on some sort of European security guarantee and Russia’s unwillingness to countenance a European deterrent force stationed on Ukrainian soil, and it’s unclear whether what’s been proposed can even form the basis for negotiations. Zelensky is expected to offer some sort of response to this Trump proposal as soon as Wednesday.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
According to NACLA’s Ociel Alí López, newly reelected Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa was able to leverage his affinity for Donald Trump in his surprisingly effective runoff campaign:
Two weeks ago, during the final stretch of the runoff campaign, US president Donald Trump privately received Noboa at Mar-a-Lago. While the details of that meeting have not been made public, Noboa appears to have received the “green light” to accelerate the country’s authoritarian drift. Following this meeting, a series of actions by the Noboa government evidenced this turn. Although Trump stopped short of endorsing Noboa explicitly, the mysterious meeting symbolized Noboa’s adoption of the “Trump Way”: a “right-wing populist” style that relies on blackmail as its central tool. Noboa left the meeting promising that the United States would exclude Ecuadorians from mass deportation lists — something Washington never confirmed — a critical issue for a country in which a significant percentage of the population receives remittances from abroad, especially from the United States.
The threat of mass deportations was instrumentalized to influence the vote. Noboa exploited the fear that Ecuadorian migrants would end up in detention centers like Guantanamo or prisons in El Salvador — thus jeopardizing the crucial flow of remittances. This blackmail, although subtle, struck a nerve: Ecuador has been a producer of migrants for decades, and the United States has long been the most sought-after destination.
Noboa also apparently got support from noted humanitarian Erik Prince, who cut ads for him accusing runoff opponent Luisa González of being too soft on crime. Prince may benefit financially if Noboa turns to US and/or mercenary support to intensify his already authoritarian security crackdown. Noboa also declared “states of exception” in seven electorally important Ecuadorian provinces, a move that has become part of González’s case as she mounts a probably-futile challenge to the outcome.
EL SALVADOR
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele offered on Sunday to repatriate the 252 Venezuelan nationals the Trump administration deposited in El Salvador’s CECOT prison camp last month, in return for which he proposed that the Venezuelan government release 252 “political prisoners.” In response, Venezuelan Attorney-General Tarek William Saab accused Bukele of human trafficking, a charge that is unfair only inasmuch as it leaves out the fact that the Trump administration trafficked those 252 people first by sending them to El Salvador. Bukele is apparently angry at Venezuela’s rejection but I think it’s premature to rule out the possibility of some sort of deal emerging from this.
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Trump administration has revealed its plan to “reorganize” the US State Department:
An organization chart released to the public shows that the ultimate plan for trimming the State Department does not go as far as versions previously reported, but it still eliminates several human rights-focused bureaus. Future changes to the plan are also still possible.
Among the bureaus and offices the administration plans to cut are the Office of Global Women’s Issues and its Diversity and Inclusion Office, which were expected given the Trump administration’s focus on eliminating such programs from the federal government. State will also eliminate some offices previously housed under the undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights and fold much of its work into other sections of the department, per a fact sheet distributed to State Department staff and reviewed by POLITICO.
[US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio said in a lengthy post on the State Department website that the new structure will make it easier for regional bureaus and embassies to “advance America’s interests abroad because region-specific functions will be streamlined to increase functionality.” To that end, he said “redundant offices will also be removed” and “non-security foreign assistance will be consolidated in regional bureaus.” Per a document distributed to State Department staff, the number of State Department bureaus and offices will fall from 734 to 602. And 137 offices will be relocated within the department or phased out.
The State Department also will eliminate the office of the director of the Foreign Service Institute, which provides language training and other educational support for career foreign service officers.
Believe it or not, as that excerpt says the released plan is quite a bit less draconian than previous reporting had suggested. Speculation in recent days has pointed toward a near-halving of the department’s budget and the potential elimination of its entire African bureau. The plan advanced by Rubio is mild by comparison and mostly seems to focus on areas that it was obvious the Trump administration wouldn’t have prioritized anyway—human rights, women’s rights and diversity, labor, etc. One could of course question the extent to which the US State Department has ever really cared about any of those things, but it probably does matter on balance that the department is now explicitly acknowledging that it doesn’t care about them. Still, as I say, this could have been worse.