I greatly enjoyed your work with ATTWIW and I'm excited for the new start here. I was wondering if you have a reading list or books you personally enjoy/recommend on the various topics that you usually cover.
I'd like to add a request for a book or two which give a brief and thorough exposition of 'big picture' questions about international relations. Something you found insightful.
I'm going to answer this one because I'm not sure where to go with the more general question. I'm better at recommending books on specific topics. Anyway for me this list isn't really "international relations" based because I didn't study international relations. Books that really helped me formulate my ideas in grad school included Marshall Hodgson's Venture of Islam, Fazlur Rahman's Islam, and Hobsbawm's Nations and Nationalism. Edward Said's Orientalism is a cliched answer but if you haven't already given a lot of thought to the issues he covers it's eye opening.
I have noticed that the YPG is alleged by Turkey to be an arm of the PKK. There are few articles that dispute this or delve deeper into the allegations, it is merely stated. Do you think there are truths to this accusation?
The YPG is the military arm of the Democratic Union Party or PYD, so it's really the PYD we're talking about here. The PYD is undoubtedly connected with the PKK. Its roots go back to a time when Hafez al-Assad sheltered the PKK and the Iraqi PUK (similarly leftish in orientation) in northern Syria to tweak the Turks and Iraqis. It's a left-wing movement that traces its ideology back to PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan, so there's a lot of affinity with the PKK. The specific charge that the PYD is merely an arm of the PKK is in my view unproven at best and a fabrication at worst, but the affinity is enough to make it stick. It is true that you won't find Turkey's allegation challenged in many places, though the US government for one does challenge it for political reasons. But it's not like anybody is going to convince the Turks they're wrong, and the fact that they make the connection is the real issue in terms of fueling conflict, more so than whether the connection is a fair one to make.
Do you think Theresa May would've had the votes for her Brexit deal by now had she not punched herself in the dick and called that snap election in 2017?
I don't think her Brexit deal would look the same. May's snap election boner has forced her to depend on the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland for support, which means she can't cut a deal with the EU that isn't to DUP's liking. And since the Northern Ireland border is what's proven to be the most intractable part of the negotiating process, it's likely if she didn't need DUP's support that she would've done something else with that issue, like leaving NI in a customs union with the EU. Now, I have no idea if she would've been able to get her own party in line in that circumstance. But as it is she's tethered to both the DUP and to Tory hardliners, whose interests don't really align all that well. If she hadn't called the snap election I think she'd have had a freer hand in negotiations.
Is the recent Russia-US-Turkey weapons system brouhaha really over just the guy linked with Gülen? It seems like quite the faux pas considering, as you wrote, that Turkey has production facilities for American stuff within its borders. What's the upside here for Erdogan?
I'm not sure which guy you're talking about. Erdogan wants to buy the S-400 because it's cheaper than the US alternative (Patriot batteries) and because he's trying very hard to build a tight relationship with Moscow. The US really can't let Turkey have the F-35 if it buys the S-400 because almost certainly the Russians sent to install and train Turkey in using the S-400 would come away with details about the F-35 that the US doesn't want Russia to have. As you say it's awkward because Turkish contractors have been involved in the F-35 production process, but that can be managed. The bigger issue to me is that the US is still storing nuclear weapons at Incirlik for some reason, and our relationship with Turkey is basically hanging by a thread. If Turkey weren't in NATO there wouldn't really be a US-Turkish relationship at this point. That's a dangerous situation. Those nukes should've been moved out years ago, at the very least after the 2016 coup attempt. It's irresponsible that they're still there.
Of course, and maybe this should go without saying, the US also wants Turkey to buy the Patriot because Raytheon wants the cash. It's not just about the F-35 though that is a legitimate problem.
The Gülen comment was referring to this thing you wrote recently:
"Erdoğan’s campaign attacks are just one of the many ways the US-Turkey relationship is on the rocks, again. Metin Topuz, a former employee at the US consulate in Istanbul who allegedly has links to Turkish public enemy number one Fethullah Gülen, is now on trial over that allegation. The US insists that Topuz has done nothing wrong and is demanding his release, but his case is wrapped up in the broader set of disputes between Ankara and Washington."
Yeah I don't say there that the S-400/F-35 argument has anything to do with Topuz except insofar as it's another Turkey-US problem. The relationship has multiple problems.
HDP's losses were partly attributable to the fact that it's still quasi-outlawed by Erdogan and partly to the fact that religiously conservative Kurds tend to shift toward AKP whenever Erdogan isn't actively killing their fellow Kurds. HDP is explicitly secular and left wing and there's not really a "conservative Kurdish" party that can capture those votes. If some enterprising Turkish Karl Rove type were inclined to try to ratfuck Erdogan, starting a party like that would be one idea. I think the significance of the elections depends on Erdogan's response. I think part of the lesson is something we already knew, which is that Erdogan's enraged hyper-nationalism wears thin when he doesn't have an obvious enemy to play against. The outcome may embolden some of the ex-AKP big shots Erdogan has cast out, so you could see the rise of a new opposition party led by people like Abdullah Gul or Ahmet Davutoglu that really goes after his base. But he's so entrenched now that if you're looking for fundamental changes to Turkish politics you almost have to look past him and just resign yourself to a couple of rough decades.
Hey Derek! I first heard about your work on Chapo, and I really appreciate the concise analysis on this blog. I'm a recent graduate from an MA political science program, but without prior relevant working experience, I'm having some trouble breaking into the IR field, which strikes me as more elitist than it needs to be. Any broad advice you can offer?
If you can manage the financial strain then finding an internship somewhere, anywhere, is my best advice. Of course that's easier said than done, which is part of the reason why the field strikes you as more elitist than it needs to be (because it is). Also if you can stomach working for Donald Trump then apply for federal gigs, there are opportunities for recent grads there. I realize that's not very palatable but remember 1) a job is a job when you're just out of school and 2) you're not going to make or break his foreign policy. I'm afraid I don't have anything else to offer. I enjoy what I'm doing now, but I spent a couple of years working the DC job market before I started this and suffice to say if I'd been any good at it we wouldn't be here.
There will be once Substack tells me they're ready to roll that feature out. They only just started doing podcasts a few weeks ago so they're still working it out. I'll let you guys know when they let me know.
Hey Derek,
I greatly enjoyed your work with ATTWIW and I'm excited for the new start here. I was wondering if you have a reading list or books you personally enjoy/recommend on the various topics that you usually cover.
Thanks again!
I'd like to add a request for a book or two which give a brief and thorough exposition of 'big picture' questions about international relations. Something you found insightful.
Thanks, Derek!
I'm going to answer this one because I'm not sure where to go with the more general question. I'm better at recommending books on specific topics. Anyway for me this list isn't really "international relations" based because I didn't study international relations. Books that really helped me formulate my ideas in grad school included Marshall Hodgson's Venture of Islam, Fazlur Rahman's Islam, and Hobsbawm's Nations and Nationalism. Edward Said's Orientalism is a cliched answer but if you haven't already given a lot of thought to the issues he covers it's eye opening.
I have noticed that the YPG is alleged by Turkey to be an arm of the PKK. There are few articles that dispute this or delve deeper into the allegations, it is merely stated. Do you think there are truths to this accusation?
The YPG is the military arm of the Democratic Union Party or PYD, so it's really the PYD we're talking about here. The PYD is undoubtedly connected with the PKK. Its roots go back to a time when Hafez al-Assad sheltered the PKK and the Iraqi PUK (similarly leftish in orientation) in northern Syria to tweak the Turks and Iraqis. It's a left-wing movement that traces its ideology back to PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan, so there's a lot of affinity with the PKK. The specific charge that the PYD is merely an arm of the PKK is in my view unproven at best and a fabrication at worst, but the affinity is enough to make it stick. It is true that you won't find Turkey's allegation challenged in many places, though the US government for one does challenge it for political reasons. But it's not like anybody is going to convince the Turks they're wrong, and the fact that they make the connection is the real issue in terms of fueling conflict, more so than whether the connection is a fair one to make.
Great response! Thank you!
Do you think Theresa May would've had the votes for her Brexit deal by now had she not punched herself in the dick and called that snap election in 2017?
I don't think her Brexit deal would look the same. May's snap election boner has forced her to depend on the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland for support, which means she can't cut a deal with the EU that isn't to DUP's liking. And since the Northern Ireland border is what's proven to be the most intractable part of the negotiating process, it's likely if she didn't need DUP's support that she would've done something else with that issue, like leaving NI in a customs union with the EU. Now, I have no idea if she would've been able to get her own party in line in that circumstance. But as it is she's tethered to both the DUP and to Tory hardliners, whose interests don't really align all that well. If she hadn't called the snap election I think she'd have had a freer hand in negotiations.
Is the recent Russia-US-Turkey weapons system brouhaha really over just the guy linked with Gülen? It seems like quite the faux pas considering, as you wrote, that Turkey has production facilities for American stuff within its borders. What's the upside here for Erdogan?
I'm not sure which guy you're talking about. Erdogan wants to buy the S-400 because it's cheaper than the US alternative (Patriot batteries) and because he's trying very hard to build a tight relationship with Moscow. The US really can't let Turkey have the F-35 if it buys the S-400 because almost certainly the Russians sent to install and train Turkey in using the S-400 would come away with details about the F-35 that the US doesn't want Russia to have. As you say it's awkward because Turkish contractors have been involved in the F-35 production process, but that can be managed. The bigger issue to me is that the US is still storing nuclear weapons at Incirlik for some reason, and our relationship with Turkey is basically hanging by a thread. If Turkey weren't in NATO there wouldn't really be a US-Turkish relationship at this point. That's a dangerous situation. Those nukes should've been moved out years ago, at the very least after the 2016 coup attempt. It's irresponsible that they're still there.
Of course, and maybe this should go without saying, the US also wants Turkey to buy the Patriot because Raytheon wants the cash. It's not just about the F-35 though that is a legitimate problem.
The Gülen comment was referring to this thing you wrote recently:
"Erdoğan’s campaign attacks are just one of the many ways the US-Turkey relationship is on the rocks, again. Metin Topuz, a former employee at the US consulate in Istanbul who allegedly has links to Turkish public enemy number one Fethullah Gülen, is now on trial over that allegation. The US insists that Topuz has done nothing wrong and is demanding his release, but his case is wrapped up in the broader set of disputes between Ankara and Washington."
https://attwiw.com/2019/03/28/middle-east-update-march-28-2019/
Yeah I don't say there that the S-400/F-35 argument has anything to do with Topuz except insofar as it's another Turkey-US problem. The relationship has multiple problems.
Do you have any comments on the wider significance of the regional elections in Turkey, especially concerning the performance of the HDP? Thanks.
HDP's losses were partly attributable to the fact that it's still quasi-outlawed by Erdogan and partly to the fact that religiously conservative Kurds tend to shift toward AKP whenever Erdogan isn't actively killing their fellow Kurds. HDP is explicitly secular and left wing and there's not really a "conservative Kurdish" party that can capture those votes. If some enterprising Turkish Karl Rove type were inclined to try to ratfuck Erdogan, starting a party like that would be one idea. I think the significance of the elections depends on Erdogan's response. I think part of the lesson is something we already knew, which is that Erdogan's enraged hyper-nationalism wears thin when he doesn't have an obvious enemy to play against. The outcome may embolden some of the ex-AKP big shots Erdogan has cast out, so you could see the rise of a new opposition party led by people like Abdullah Gul or Ahmet Davutoglu that really goes after his base. But he's so entrenched now that if you're looking for fundamental changes to Turkish politics you almost have to look past him and just resign yourself to a couple of rough decades.
Thanks for the reply ! V. interesting.
Hey Derek! I first heard about your work on Chapo, and I really appreciate the concise analysis on this blog. I'm a recent graduate from an MA political science program, but without prior relevant working experience, I'm having some trouble breaking into the IR field, which strikes me as more elitist than it needs to be. Any broad advice you can offer?
If you can manage the financial strain then finding an internship somewhere, anywhere, is my best advice. Of course that's easier said than done, which is part of the reason why the field strikes you as more elitist than it needs to be (because it is). Also if you can stomach working for Donald Trump then apply for federal gigs, there are opportunities for recent grads there. I realize that's not very palatable but remember 1) a job is a job when you're just out of school and 2) you're not going to make or break his foreign policy. I'm afraid I don't have anything else to offer. I enjoy what I'm doing now, but I spent a couple of years working the DC job market before I started this and suffice to say if I'd been any good at it we wouldn't be here.
More a housekeeping question but do you intend to redirect the attwiw.com domain or should I go ahead and fix my bookmark to this?
You'll need to change your bookmark, sorry.
while we are doing housekeeping questions, will there be an rss feed for the podcasts once those start back up?
There will be once Substack tells me they're ready to roll that feature out. They only just started doing podcasts a few weeks ago so they're still working it out. I'll let you guys know when they let me know.