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TODAY IN HISTORY
July 25, 1139: An army under the future Afonso I, then Count Afonso of Portugal, defeats the Almoravids at the Battle of Ourique. Details of this battle are sketchy, but it was apparently such a glorious victory that in its aftermath Afonso declared Portugal’s independence from the Kingdom of León and thereby gave himself a promotion from count to king. Later legends had Afonso being visited on the eve of the battle by, variously, Saint James the Greater (whose tomb is held to lie in Santiago de Compostela), Saint George, or even Jesus Himself, guaranteeing victory.
July 25, 1799: In the finale to his big, failed eastern campaign, Napoleon once again defeats an Ottoman-Mamluk army at the Battle of Abukir. The French expedition had stalled out at Acre and political upheaval back in France was demanding his attention. Abukir offered him a chance to declare victory and then slip out of Egypt and head home, while the French occupation of Egypt continued through August 1801 when a British intervention brought it to an end.
July 26, 657 (give or take): The climactic confrontation of the Islamic world’s first civil war (“fitna”), the Battle of Siffin, takes place in what is today eastern Syria. The battle pitted the forces of Caliph Ali against those loyal to Syrian governor Muʿawiyah. Ali’s outnumbered forces won the battle tactically, but to avoid further loss of life he agreed to resolve his dispute with Muʿawiyah via arbitration, only to have the arbitrators rule against him in 659. He ignored that ruling but was then assassinated in 661 by a group that became known as the Kharijites (“leavers”), former supporters who broke with him over the decision to seek arbitration in the first place. Muʿawiyah became caliph, inaugurating the Umayyad dynasty.
July 26, 1847: A constitutional convention in the Commonwealth of Liberia adopts a declaration of independence and constitution establishing the Republic of Liberia as a sovereign nation. Annually commemorated as Liberian Independence Day.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Lebanese army issued a statement on Sunday complaining that the Israeli military (IDF) is “obstructing” its efforts to deploy into villages that have supposedly been cleared under the “pilot” withdrawal program. Apparently the IDF is still conducting airstrikes and “clearance” operations (a euphemism for demolishing an area to render it uninhabitable) near enough to those villages so as to prevent Lebanese forces from entering them.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
IDF airstrikes killed at least three Hamas personnel on Sunday, including the heads of the group’s internal security/police forces in central and northern Gaza. Coincidentally or not, the Israeli “security cabinet” voted on Sunday to approve an initial deployment of the “International Stabilization Force” that is supposed to secure Gaza (the parts that are not under direct IDF control) under Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” scheme. This first deployment will be limited to a small territory in southern Gaza’s Rafah region. That puts it in an area that’s inside the IDF’s security perimeter, so this isn’t much of a test for how the ISF would work under the conditions in which it is ostensibly supposed to operate.
It’s still not clear when that force, planned to number 200 personnel, will deploy, nor is it entirely clear whence the personnel will be coming, though a handful of countries have expressed a general willingness to participate. IDF airstrikes killed at least four people and wounded another 15 in Gaza on Saturday, while the security crackdown that Israeli forces undertook in the West Bank following another settler rampage on Friday has swept up at least 70 Palestinians.
YEMEN
The Ansarullah/Houthi movement expanded its conflict with Saudi Arabia beyond its naval blockade on Saturday, carrying out drone and missile attacks against Saudi oil facilities in the cities of Jazan and Yanbu. That came after the Saudis attacked the Yemeni port city of Hudaydah and other coastal/Red Sea targets on Friday. The Saudis in turn carried out retaliatory airstrikes in northern Yemen later on Saturday. I have not seen any word as to casualties.
IRAN
A very funny thing happened on Friday, as the US military seemed to be on schedule to begin its 14th straight night of attacks on Iran: nothing. As in no US attacks, no Iranian response, if not quite “peace” then at least more or less “quiet.” Then the same thing happened the next night and it would appear as I write this that it’s going to be three nights in a row with no US-Iranian clash.
Iranian officials have said that they’ll stop fighting as long as the US does. As to why the US has stopped fighting, that’s an open question. It seems pretty clear that the halt was not long in the planning, as Haaretz reported that it caught the Israeli government off guard as it was preparing to re-enter the war as part of a US escalation. Donald Trump talked vaguely about progress in negotiations on Friday and the administration’s official story is that it’s giving the diplomatic process a chance.
But that may not be the real story. The New York Times reported that Trump held a meeting with “top advisers and senior members of his cabinet” on Friday to discuss the war, and they apparently aired a number of concerns about escalation. These included fears about the US military’s “already diminished” supply of Patriot air defense interceptors—NBC News reported on Friday that US forces are having to pick and choose which Iranian projectiles to intercept so as to preserve the interceptors they still have—as well as concerns “about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.” On the subject of that “economic crunch,” maybe Trump got a peek at $100+/barrel oil prices on Thursday and Friday morning and that factored into his thinking.
Whatever the rationale, with escalation apparently taken off the table for the time being, Axios is reporting that US Central Command boss Brad Cooper advised halting the air campaign altogether “because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness.” And here we are.
ASIA
INDIA
Indian Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned on Saturday in response to the “Cockroach Janta Party” protest movement’s demands. The Indian government also reportedly agreed to several other CJP requests, which combined with Pradhan’s resignation was enough to convince CJP leaders to end the group’s recent protests in New Delhi. The CJP has been demanding that the Indian government reform the country’s national exam system, drop criminal charges against protesters who had already been arrested, and compensate the families of students who took their own lives following the snafu that forced the retesting of some 2 million prospective medical students last month.
CHINA
The Diplomat’s Jan Švec outlines the Chinese government’s growing interest in “planetary defense”:
Within the past several weeks, China has announced a series of initiatives related to planetary defense. At the end of June, it unveiled plans to establish an asteroid early-warning network for planetary defense. A few days ago, China also released further details about its asteroid deflection mission, which has been under development for several years. The mission is currently scheduled for 2027, although the launch date may still change. The mission is expected to involve sending a spacecraft to impact an asteroid in an attempt to alter its trajectory and, potentially, disrupt its structure.
These steps are part of broader long-term plans. In 2018, China joined the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), both of which operate under the auspices of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. The 2021 Space White Paper elevated planetary defense to one of China’s policy priorities for the coming years, outlining plans to develop a near-Earth object defense system by improving its monitoring, cataloguing, early warning, response, and disposal capabilities.
In 2022, China established the Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL), which is responsible, among other tasks, for conducting research on planetary defense. DSEL is led by Wu Weiren, one of China’s leading space engineers and the chief designer of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program. In February 2025, Chinese media reported that the government had opened three new positions for planetary defense experts. The following month, DSEL organized a conference on near-Earth asteroid defense, attended by more than 50 Chinese experts.
This seems to be an outgrowth of the Chinese government’s overall interest in building out its space program. But staking out a position of international leadership on this issue in particular is a fairly easy way for Beijing to present itself as a responsible Great Power—and maybe to justify investing in technologies that also have obvious military application.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military (SAF) declared on Sunday that it has once again secured total control of the main highway connecting the Khartoum region to Sudan’s North Kordofan state. This came after a military offensive pushing west from the city of Omdurman seized the towns of Barah, Jabrat Al-Sheikh, and Umm Sayala on Saturday and continued their advance through the following day, turning aside a counterattack by the Rapid Support Forces militant group in the process. Military forces in the sometimes-besieged city of El-Obeid were able to link up with the forces from Omdurman and secure the entire road.
The Sudan Tribune is reporting that Sudanese military commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has now ordered “a sweeping offensive to clear the entire country up to the border with the Central African Republic” to capitalize on the SAF’s momentum. I suspect that’s going to be easier said than done.
MAURITANIA
Responsible Statecraft’s Jordanna Yochai warns that instability in Mali is spilling over into neighboring Mauritania, causing refugee displacement across the border and leading to violent encounters between Mauritanians and Malian security forces:
Malian forces, alongside the Kremlin-backed Africa Corps, stand accused of killing scores of Mauritanian herders since the seasonal migration began in January. Local officials in Mauritania’s Guidimakha region report at least a dozen disappearances since then, leaving relatives uncertain of their fate. Despite government warnings, herders continue to cross into Mali, a necessity in a country where livestock accounts for roughly 10% of GDP.
This is an inversion of expected dynamics: herders can transit through terrorist-controlled areas but experience violence in areas under Bamako’s “control.” With terrorists, they are able to negotiate in-kind payments in exchange for safe passage through a region or access to pasture land therein. It is primarily in state-controlled areas where herders are targeted and, by some accounts, killed.
Malian operations have also reportedly crossed into Mauritanian territory, targeting border villages like Melga and Gogui. In border regions, locals now argue that Malian and Africa Corps operations are the primary source of instability. “When [terrorists] cross the border, they leave their arms behind… When the Malian military came, they were armed to the teeth. I pray that they do not come again,” said the mayor of a town that experienced such an incursion.
Security sources can recount at least six incidents in which Malian patrols crossed into Mauritanian villages this year, and the state’s response has left some citizens frustrated. Mauritania’s denials that the incursions occurred within its territory prompted a member of parliament to rhetorically question whether his district was considered part of Mali. Residents of affected villages insist they are Mauritanian, with Mauritanian schools and government offices.
During an audience with President Mohamed Ould El Ghazouani earlier this year, Mauritanians living along the border urged the state to attack Mali or at least secure grazing rights. But there are no easy solutions to this problem. Escalation risks conflict, while restraint could result in more cross-border incursions. According to a member of parliament, Ghazouani said during a private meeting with the opposition in April that tensions with Mali were his greatest concern.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
Russian attacks killed at least six people across Ukraine on Sunday, while a Ukrainian drone strike killed at least four people in the Russian-occupied portion of Donetsk oblast. The previous day Ukrainian strikes killed at least 12 people in “holiday camps” in the Russian-occupied portion of Zaporizhzhia oblast, while a Russian drone strike killed at least three people in Sumy oblast. Reuters reported on Friday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the White House on Tuesday and that he and Donald Trump will discuss the idea of proposing an “air ceasefire” to Moscow. It’s possible that recent Ukrainian strikes inside Russia will convince Vladimir Putin to accept such a proposal, but it seems like a long shot.
Despite the relative lull in hostilities (see above), the Iran war may nonetheless have expanded over the weekend, after the Ukrainian military apparently attacked an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea and killed at least one person. Zelensky didn’t directly address the incident but did note via social media that Kyiv is aware of the Russian military passing targeting information to Iran. With Ukraine expanding its long-range targets to include Russian support infrastructure an attack on Caspian shipping may have been inevitable, especially inasmuch as Iran has been providing weapons and other support to Russia. Zelensky may also see an opening to build up some goodwill with Trump by being a loyal US proxy, though there seems to be some irony in his decision to jump into the Iran conflict just as Trump was pausing it. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised retaliation but Iran’s options in that regard may be limited.
ROMANIA
The Romanian Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador in Bucharest on Sunday after the country’s military reported shooting down three Russian drones that had entered Romanian airspace in as many days. Authorities are still investigating the incidents but Friday’s drone was apparently a Shahed, an Iranian model that the Russian military has been using heavily in Ukraine.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
The Brazilian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that it had denied visa applications by two US officials, Assistant Secretary of State Riley Barnes and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Samuel Samson, due to suspicion of election interference. According to the US State Department both had been scheduled to travel to Brazil “to hold meetings about election integrity, religious freedom, and freedom of expression.” Brazilian officials suspect, probably with good reason, that they were going to lay the groundwork for Trump ally and presidential challenger Flávio Bolsonaro to claim fraud should he lose the election in October.
Bolsonaro has already started alleging that Brazil’s electronic voting machines are insecure, something his father and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro did right before the 2022 election (which he lost) and something that Donald Trump does in the US on a fairly frequent basis. Polling puts Bolsonaro behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though the race appears to be fairly close.
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Conversation’s Jason Blazakis discusses the Trump administration’s efforts to manufacture a terrorist threat out of “Antifa”:
The construction project began on Sept. 22, 2025, when President Donald Trump signed an executive order purporting to designate antifa as a domestic terrorist organization. The order describes antifa as “a militarist, anarchist enterprise that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the United States Government.” It directs every relevant agency to investigate and dismantle its operations.
Two problems are immediately apparent. First, no legal authority exists to designate domestic organizations as terrorist groups. It’s a gap that Congress has deliberately preserved for First Amendment reasons.
Second, the order designates as an organization something the FBI’s past leadership has described as an ideology. Trump’s executive order asserts an antifa enterprise into existence and then declares war on it.
Three days after the executive order, the White House implemented the order through National Security Presidential Memorandum 7, which converts the fiction into machinery. The memorandum directs the Treasury Department to identify and disrupt financial networks that fund what it deems domestic terrorism. The memorandum instructs banks to file suspicious activity reports with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, the U.S. government’s financial intelligence unit.
That means the government’s financial surveillance apparatus, built to trace al-Qaida’s money in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, is being pointed at Americans that the administration considers left-wing.
Regarding China's recent interest in planetary defense, it may also serve as a way to use government funds for asteroid mining research