World roundup: March 8-9 2025
Stories from Syria, South Sudan, Russia, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
March 6, 961: The Siege of Chandax ends with a Byzantine victory and the imperial recovery of the island of Crete.
March 6, 1204: The Siege of Château Gaillard, which had begun the previous August, ends with a French victory that sets up the eventual conquest of Normandy. Château Gaillard was one of French King Philip II’s most important victories in his 1202-1204 campaign to take Normandy from the Angevin Empire, which had been weakened by civil war after the death of King Richard the Lionheart in 1199 and the accession of the less capable King John. Philip defeated an English relief army and ignored John’s diversionary invasion of Brittany, and his army was eventually able to breach the castle and force its garrison to surrender. The fall of Château Gaillard opened the rest of Normandy to French invasion, and the April 1 death of John’s mother, Eleanor of Aquitaine, further weakened the Angevin Empire. Normandy was fully under French control by August.
March 7, 1573: The Fourth Ottoman-Venetian War ends with an Ottoman victory and a treaty that leaves the hitherto Venetian island of Cyprus under Ottoman control. Although this 1570-1573 war is best remembered for the 1571 naval Battle of Lepanto, which was a resounding victory for the Holy League, that victory came after the last Venetian city on Cyprus, Famagusta, had already fallen to an Ottoman siege. The treaty recognized the overall Ottoman victory and obliged Venice to pay a war indemnity on top of its loss of Cyprus and some territory in Dalmatia.
March 7, 1799: Napoleon’s army successfully captures the city of Jaffa, whose site is part of modern day Tel Aviv, after a very brief siege. The engagement is perhaps best known for Napoleon’s decision to conduct a mass execution of the defeated Ottoman garrison, killing at least 2000 and by some accounts more than 4000 men. He apparently hoped that his brutality here would encourage other cities along his march into Syria to surrender peacefully, but instead it seems to have prompted the garrison in Napoleon’s next target, Acre, to resist more vigorously.
March 8, 1010 (or thereabouts): Persian writer Abu’l-Qasim Ferdowsi completes his monumental epic, the Shahnameh.
March 8, 1722: At the Battle of Gulnabad, a Ghilzai Afghan army under Mahmud Hotak defeats the Safavid army, inflicting heavy casualties. The Safavid defeat exposed their capital, Isfahan, to the Afghan forces, who then besieged it. The Safavids surrendered on October 23, and while they had a brief semi-revival in the early 1730s, for all practical purposes this defeat brought their dynasty—which had ruled Iran since the beginning of the 16th century—to a close.
March 8, 1963: Syria’s 8 March Revolution, a military coup with good branding, brings the Syrian Baath Party to power in a tenuous and very short-lived alliance with Nasserist elements. Although the Baath Party was now in control, its civilian and military wings were increasingly at odds with one another and that would lead to another coup in 1966.
March 9, 1500: Portuguese explorer Pedro Álvares Cabral sets sail with a fleet bound for India by a circuitous route through the western Atlantic Ocean. In April, Cabral’s fleet made landfall in what is now eastern Brazil. It’s unclear whether he knew the land was there or just stumbled upon it while making a wide turn toward the southern tip of Africa. Either way, this was the one part of the Americas that was far enough east to fall within Portugal’s allotted colonial domain under the 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas. Cabral’s fleet eventually continued on around Africa to Calicut, where he and his crew massacred around 600 people on ten merchant ships in retaliation for an attack on a Portuguese factory, and then headed back to Portugal.
March 9, 1862: The Battle of Hampton Roads, an attempt by a Confederate squadron to break the Union naval blockade of Richmond, ends inconclusively with the Confederates having inflicted heavy losses on the Union but without having lifted the blockade. The engagement is most noteworthy for having involved the first clash between two “ironclad” vessels, the USS Monitor and the CSS Virginia. The Virginia destroyed two wooden Union ships on the first day of fighting, proving the value of this new generation of vessels, but then fought the Monitor to a draw as neither ship was able to heavily damage the other. Naval warfare would, of course, never be the same again.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
The Turkish Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its forces had killed 26 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters over the previous week. “But wait,” perhaps you’re saying, “didn’t the PKK declare a ceasefire about a week ago?” In fact it did, but you see the thing is that the Turkish government doesn’t care. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler argued in a speech on Friday that the PKK ceasefire “has no significance and never will” while insisting that the group heed leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call to “immediately dissolve itself and unconditionally lay down arms.” Far be it from me to tell the Turkish government how to do its business, but I’m not sure this approach is going to be conducive to a successful peace process.
SYRIA
The past several days have seen what may be the early stages of the nightmare scenario that many people feared might ensue when former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December by an assortment of violent and unruly militant groups. What reportedly began with clashes between security forces and “Assad-linked fighters” in northwestern Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday escalated into what appears to be a full-blown massacre of Alawite civilians by those same security forces and their paramilitary compatriots. By Saturday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights was reporting that at least 1311 people had been killed in the fighting, including 231 government forces and 250 “pro-Assad” militants. That leaves 830 civilians, most or all of them Alawite, killed in a series of what sound like revenge attacks across Latakia and Tartus provinces.
(UPDATE: Late on Sunday the SOHR updated its count to at least 973 civilians killed.)
The situations in both Latakia and Tartus appeared to calm a bit over the weekend, but clashes have continued at lower levels and reports of the death toll have fueled substantial international criticism directed at the Syrian government. Authorities say they’re investigating reports of violence targeting Alawite civilians but they’re also still insisting that the violence is primarily the fault of “pro-Assad” elements. To the extent that they’ve acknowledged any excesses they’re characterizing them as “individual violations” committed by “large and unorganized crowds.” Needless to say this seems like an extremely charitable interpretation of events. Those “large and unorganized crowds” appear to be militant factions that fought with/alongside the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group that now runs the Syrian government. Many of those groups have track records that show they’re prone to just this kind of violence. This outburst suggests that HTS either can’t control those factions or doesn’t want to control them, at least as far as protecting Alawites is concerned.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed one person and wounded another in a drone strike in southern Lebanon on Saturday. Israeli officials claimed that they targeted “a Hezbollah terrorist who was engaged in re-establishing terrorist infrastructure and directing Hezbollah terror activities in southern Lebanon.”
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli government intensified its efforts to force Hamas into accepting an extension of the Gaza truce by cutting electricity to the territory on Sunday. Gaza is largely dependent on generators for power, though the resumption of Israel’s humanitarian blockade also means those devices will start running out of fuel eventually, and there are concerns that Sunday’s decision could threaten the functioning of Gaza’s desalination facilities. Also on Sunday the IDF killed two people in an airstrike in northern Gaza. It claimed they were attempting to plant some sort of explosive device.
US hostage envoy Adam Boehler described his ongoing direct negotiations with Hamas as “very productive” in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, acknowledging in another interview with CNN that he understands why the Israeli government is concerned about these interactions while pointing out—in what is frankly an extraordinary statement coming from a representative of the US government—that “we’re the United States. We’re not an agent of Israel.” Boehler’s meetings with Hamas officials have primarily focused on securing the release of US national Edan Alexander and the bodies of four US nationals who have died in Hamas captivity. But they also seem to have breathed new life into talks on advancing to phase two of the ceasefire deal, and he suggested to CNN that a new agreement could manifest “within weeks.” US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly planning to head to Qatar on Tuesday as part of those negotiations.
Drop Site’s Mariam Barghouti writes that the IDF’s “Operation Iron Wall” has now become “the largest forced displacement in the [West Bank] since the 1967 war,” as it has driven more than 40,000 people out of the Farʿa, Jenin, Nur Shams, and Tulkarm refugee camps so far. Israeli forces have killed at least 60 Palestinians over the course of this operation, which began not coincidentally just after the Gaza truce went into effect and has resembled the tactics of the IDF’s Gaza campaign in many respects. United Nations Relief and Works Agency officials have called the operation “unprecedented” and warn that it “aligns with the vision of annexation of the West Bank.” There are reports of the IDF assuming police functions in Tulkarm, for example, that suggest plans to simply assume responsibility for governance from the Palestinian Authority.
IRAN
Donald Trump claimed on Friday that he had written a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei inviting him to negotiate with the US over the status of Iran’s nuclear program. The alternative, he said, would be military action. As of Saturday Iranian officials were insisting that they hadn’t received any letter and Khamenei had denounced the US government’s “bullying,” which he argued was “not aimed at solving problems” but rather “at domination.” That said, the Iranian United Nations mission took to social media on Sunday to suggest that negotiations could be possible “to address concerns vis-à-vis any potential militarization of Iran’s nuclear program.” So there could be a diplomatic way forward here under a specifically defined framework. The Trump administration is meanwhile considering the interdiction of Iranian oil tankers at sea as the next step in its “maximum pressure” approach. That’s likely to prompt retaliation from Iran and set back any possibility of talks.
ASIA
MYANMAR
Myanmar state media reported on Saturday that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has circled “December 2025 or January 2026” on his “Dogs Pooping in Beautiful Places” calendar (I’m guessing) as the target date for an election to nominally transition Myanmar back to some facsimile of civilian governance. Given how much of Myanmar is currently under rebel control, and how much more of it could be under rebel control by the end of this year, it’s unclear how exactly this election is going to proceed logistically.
Elsewhere, the AP reports on the status of thousands of foreign nationals who have been rescued from scam centers in southeastern Myanmar only to find themselves stranded near the Thai border:
Last month, a dramatic and highly publicized operation by Thai, Chinese and Myanmar authorities led to the release of more than 7,000 people from locked compounds in Myanmar where they were forced to trick Americans and others out of their life savings. But survivors have found themselves trapped once again, this time in overcrowded facilities with no medical care, limited food and no idea when they’ll be sent home.
One young man from India said about 800 people were being held in the same facility as him, sharing 10 dirty toilets. He said many of the people there were feverish and coughing. Like all former enslaved scammers who talked to The Associated Press, he spoke on condition of anonymity out of concern for his safety.
“If we die here with health issues, who is responsible for that?” he asked.
The armed groups who are holding the survivors, as well as Thai officials across the border, say they are awaiting action from the detainees’ home governments.
To be clear there are potentially 300,000 people still being held as forced labor by those scam operations, so if the mission to close them down is going to continue someone is going to need to make arrangements for all of those people.
THAILAND
Two militant attacks in southern Thailand on Saturday left at least 11 people dead. The first involved a “group of more than 10 assailants” who fired on and tossed explosives at government offices in a town in Narathiwat province, killing at least two people and wounding another 12. The second incident took place in Pattani province on Saturday night, when a roadside bomb killed at least three people. Southern Thailand has been dealing with a low-level Malay/Muslim separatist insurgency since the early 2000s, whose roots go back to the middle of the 20th century. Occasional incidents like these are a feature of that conflict.
TAIWAN
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announced on Monday that it will invest a cool $100 billion in the United States in the near future to, among other things, build five new manufacturing facilities. This is in part a response to Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Taiwan unless the company—which is the world’s largest and most valuable semiconductor maker—starts manufacturing more of its products in the US. It’s also causing something of a panic in Taiwan, where many people regard the presence of TSMC’s manufacturing facilities as a guardrail against a potential invasion by China seeing as how Chinese tech companies are just as dependent on TSMC’s products as everyone else. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and TSMC CEO C.C. Wei have tried to assuage those concerns—insisting, for example, that the company would continue to make its most advanced products in Taiwan exclusively—though it’s unclear whether those assurances are working.
NORTH KOREA
North Korea may be developing a nuclear submarine. At least that’s what state media suggested on Saturday, releasing photos of what it claimed was a “a nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine.” That means not only is it nuclear-powered, it’s capable of firing nuclear weapons. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has long had a nuclear sub on his wishlist, and it seems reasonable to speculate that he’s gotten Russian assistance in building one in return for Pyongyang’s material support for the Russian war in Ukraine. North Korea has a large fleet of aging diesel submarines, but while it’s invested a fair amount of time and energy into developing submarine-launched missiles it’s unclear if any of those subs are capable of firing them. This new one, assuming that’s what it is, surely would be capable.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Rapid Support Forces militant group killed at least nine people and wounded another 21 in an artillery strike on the Sudanese city of El Obeid on Sunday. The Sudanese army broke the RSF’s siege of that city, the capital of North Kordofan state, last month.
Meanwhile, the Sudanese government filed a case against the United Arab Emirates at the UN International Court of Justice on Thursday, arguing that its support for the RSF violates the 1948 Genocide Convention. The RSF’s attacks against the Masalit people in Darfur arguably rise to the level of genocide, which would make the UAE culpable. Emirati officials characterized the filing as “a cynical publicity stunt” and called for its “immediate dismissal.” The UAE continues to deny supporting the RSF and the RSF has denied targeting Masalit civilians, but neither of those denials seems particularly credible. To be fair, the UAE is certainly not the only outside actor feeding the violence in Sudan. The Washington Post reported on Friday on the extensive support that the Turkish defense firm Baykar has apparently been providing to the Sudanese military. It’s been known that the Sudanese military is using Baykar drones but the amount of Turkish support was a revelation. Like the UAE, Iran, and other outside players the Turkish aim is to lock down a substantial chunk of Sudan’s mineral wealth in a postwar order.
SOUTH SUDAN
Amid what UN officials are calling an “alarming regression” in South Sudan’s tenuous peace process, the US State Department ordered an evacuation of nonemergency personnel from its Juba embassy on Sunday. At last check, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir was in the process of purging his government of anyone allied to his vice president and rival, Riek Machar, and had ordered his security forces to surround Machar’s home in Juba. Kiir fired another prominent Machar loyalist on Thursday. Those events were apparently sparked by reports of fighting between government forces and the (allegedly) Machar-linked “White Army” militant group in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state. On Friday, the militants shot down a UN helicopter that was attempting to evacuate South Sudanese soldiers from one of those clashes, leaving at least 27 soldiers and one UN worker dead. It’s fair to say that the situation at this point is critical and a resumption of civil war is entirely conceivable.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Allied Democratic Forces jihadists reportedly attacked a village in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province on Saturday, killing at least nine people. Several people are still missing following the attack and there’s a strong possibility that the death toll will rise as security forces assess the situation.
Elsewhere in North Kivu, the M23 militant group and its Rwandan comrades have reportedly advanced some 100 kilometers north of the provincial capital, Goma, and are threatening the important mining town of Walikale. Of potentially greater significance, local militias previously allied with the Congolese military appear to be changing sides—one such outfit, the Group Kabido, announced its decision to change allegiances over the weekend. Another pro-government militia appears to have been responsible for the massacre of over 35 people on Thursday in a part of North Kivu that’s already under M23/Rwandan control. One local account puts the death toll at 47 or more. Village residents displaced by the M23 conflict had begun returning to their homes when the militia attacked.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The Russian military has reportedly undertaken a major new offensive to try to dislodge Ukrainian forces from what remains of their foothold in Kursk oblast. In particular they’re focusing on the border town of Sudzha, the Ukrainians’ main conquest in their Kursk operation. It’s difficult to know to any certainty what’s happening in the province, but there have been indications for several days now that Russian forces were making steady gains in Kursk and the Ukrainian position in Sudzha may be nearly untenable. The Russian military even claimed on Sunday that its forces had crossed from Kursk into Ukraine’s Sumy oblast, threatening to turn this situation from a setback for Kyiv into an outright disaster.
UKRAINE
The Russians have also taken two more villages in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast over the past few days, including one just 13 kilometers away from neighboring Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Without some sort of halt to the fighting it seems increasingly likely that Russian forces will enter that province, which will undoubtedly complicate peace negotiations.
Speaking of peace talks, there’s going to be a new round of those in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, though not between Ukraine and Russia. Instead it will be Ukrainian and US officials meeting to try to put the lingering tension in their relationship to rest for at least the time being. According to Trump administration officials, the confab is meant “to see if the Ukrainians are interested not just in peace, but in a realistic peace.” The Ukrainians will be trying to demonstrate that to US satisfaction while also convincing the administration to restore the military and intelligence aid it has cut off—a cut off that now apparently includes critical commercial satellite imagery. The US has been sharing that imagery with the Ukrainians but reportedly suspended it without much warning to the front line Ukrainian military units that have been relying on it. One assumes the Ukrainians will at least be attempting to turn that support back on at Tuesday’s meeting. For what it’s worth, Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday evening that he was “close” to resuming intelligence support.
ROMANIA
Romanian authorities on Sunday barred right-wing politician Călin Georgescu from standing in May’s do-over of the country’s annulled presidential election. Georgescu of course won the first round of that election in November, and polling indicated that he was on track to win the runoff until authorities scrubbed the entire election over an alleged Russian plot to boost Georgescu’s candidacy. The decision to ban him from running again does not come as a surprise—frankly it would have been stranger to undermine the country’s democratic system to prevent his election only to let him potentially be elected anyway. But it did cause hundreds of Georgescu supporters to turn out in Bucharest on Sunday night in protest and that may just be the beginning. Georgescu can appeal the decision to the Romanian Constitutional Court but his chances of getting a favorable verdict are iffy at best.
AMERICAS
CANADA
Former Canadian central bank governor Mark Carney has won a landslide victory in the race to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of his Liberal Party. Carney took 85.9 percent of the vote in the party’s leadership election. He’ll now succeed Trudeau as PM likely within a few days, at which point he’ll have to decide whether to call an immediate snap election or wait until closer to the legal deadline in October. Polling has shown a rapidly tightening race—thanks in part to a “Trump Effect”—that may still slightly favor the opposition Conservative Party, but voters seem to look more favorably on the Liberals under Carney’s leadership and he may be hoping that the momentum of his accession would carry over into an election.
UNITED STATES
Finally, for the second time in as many months Donald Trump backed down from his threat to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products on Thursday, announcing new one-month suspensions of those duties on all goods that qualify under the terms of the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The decision basically expanded the exemptions he’d already carved out for automakers to pretty much everything else. Now the administration says its new tariff activation date is April 2, when Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” scheme is supposed to come online, but that Mexico and Canada could earn further delays depending on their progress in preventing the importation of fentanyl into the US.
Trump’s back and forth on these tariffs sent stock markets into a frenzy all week, but administration officials insist that his decision to back away from them had nothing to do with any stock declines. At this point a more cynical observer might wonder if anyone involved in any official or unofficial capacity with the Trump administration has been able to benefit from all of the market turmoil—stock prices plummeting when it looks like sanctions are going to be imposed and then rising again when they’re suspended, that sort of thing. I am of course not a cynic so I would never impugn the motives of the ethically unimpeachable members of this illustrious government. But readers will have to interpret these things for themselves.
And the man comes roaring back! Good to have you back.