World roundup: March 1-2 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ukraine, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
March 1, 1811: Having invited the leaders of the Mamluk community to his Cairo citadel for a celebration, Egyptian ruler Muhammad Ali traps them in a courtyard and has his soldiers massacre them. The incident brought the Mamluk sociopolitical order to an abrupt end after some 450 years (with brief interruptions) at the top of the Egyptian political hierarchy.
March 1, 1896: An Ethiopian army under Emperor Menelik II defeats an invading Italian army under Oreste Baratieri, the governor of Italian Eritrea, at the Battle of Adwa. Their defeat forced the Italians and their local allies to retreat to Eritrea and brought the First Italo-Ethiopian War to an end with an Ethiopian victory. The Italians would, of course, be back a few decades later.
March 2, 1962: The Burmese military, led by General Ne Win, overthrows the country’s civilian government in a coup. The military stepped in amid widespread public opposition to the government, which was accused of corruption and incompetence, and fears that the government’s weakness might cause the country to break apart. This kicked off a period of military or essentially military rule in Myanmar that has continued essentially through the present day.
March 2, 2002: The US military begins Operation Anaconda in Paktia province, the first large-scale battle in the War in Afghanistan. The battle ended on March 18 with a decisive US/coalition victory. It’s best not to think about what happened after that.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
Following leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve on Thursday, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) took a step toward at least the first of those things on Saturday when it declared a ceasefire in its conflict with the Turkish government. While retaining the right to defend itself, the party’s statement said that it agrees “with the content of [Öcalan’s] call as it is, and we say that we will follow and implement it.” A ceasefire was the lowest hanging fruit in the wake of Öcalan’s statement, but getting from there to full disarmament and then from there to the PKK’s dissolution is likely going to take considerable negotiation.
SYRIA
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military (IDF) to prepare to “defend” the “Druze village” of Jaramana in “southern Syria” on Saturday. There are a few problems with that formulation, chief among them the fact that Jaramana isn’t a “Druze village in southern Syria,” it’s a suburb of Damascus with a sizable Druze population. There’s also no indication that anyone there has requested Israeli “defense” but I guess that’s a minor triviality for Netanyahu, who regards Israel’s self-professed role as “protector” of the Druze as a convenient excuse to intervene in Syria. This order came after reports of a battle on Saturday between Druze residents of Jaramana and gunmen from the neighboring suburb of Mleha that left at least one Druze man dead and nine people wounded. That in turn came a day after a member of Syria’s security forces was killed in Jaramana, possibly after having been stopped at a militia checkpoint. Druze community leaders denounced that incident and said they would turn anyone involved over to Syrian authorities. Syrian security forces deployed into Jaramana on Sunday and as far as I know there have been no further incidents.
On Sunday, the office of interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the formation of a seven-member “committee of experts” to draft a transitional constitution. The Gang, which does include one woman in what is either a meaningful attempt at inclusion or a token gesture toward Western sensibilities, will submit its plan to Sharaa, though the timetable for that process is unclear.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement expired on Saturday and, having refused to negotiate on a potential second phase, the Israeli government instead threw its weight behind a US-proposed extension of the first phase truce through the end of Passover (mid-April). That proposal calls for the release of roughly half of the remaining Gaza hostages (living and dead) on the first day of the extension, with the other half to be released at its conclusion provided the principals have finally agreed upon a full ceasefire. Hamas rejected the extension, stressing its “full commitment to implementing all the terms of the [original] agreement in all its stages and details” and blaming the Israelis for refusing to discuss the aforementioned second phase.
As of Sunday evening the IDF had not resumed its military obliteration of Gaza, but the Israeli government has decided to resume starving the people living there. Israeli authorities have reimposed a full blockade on humanitarian relief entering the territory. While Gaza has experienced a significant uptick in aid coming in during the truce, residents reported an immediate “surge” in food prices after the suspension was announced so this may have very near-term impacts in terms of people’s ability to obtain basic necessities.
The Israelis are hoping to force Hamas into accepting the US extension proposal and are reportedly under a bit of pressure from the Trump administration not to start attacking Gaza for at least a few days, but at some point they will resume the military component of this atrocity as well as the siege component. The IDF did kill at least four people in Gaza on Sunday across a couple of incidents in the northern and southern parts of the territory. In one instance Israeli officials claim that they carried out an airstrike on “suspects” who had allegedly planted a bomb.
ASIA
CHINA
The Diplomat’s Zi Yang argues that recent Chinese naval exercises near Taiwan, in the Gulf of Tonkin, and in the Tasman Sea were meant to advance several objectives:
The [People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLAN] has achieved substantial growth in recent years. China now boasts the world’s largest navy and its shipyards remain highly productive. Moreover, the PLAN’s firepower is rapidly approaching that of the U.S. Navy. In the Asia-Pacific, the PLAN outclasses other navies in both quality and quantity. By conducting coordinated naval drills across the region, China seeks to enhance its naval readiness and showcase its expanding capability to competitors, particularly Australia and New Zealand, which might come to Taiwan’s aid in a future conflict.
Moreover, at a time when U.S. domestic and foreign policies are in disarray, China wants to assert dominance over U.S. allies in the region – including Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand. In recent years, Vietnam has sought to strengthen relations with the United States as well to offset China’s growing influence. By conducting exercises near the waters of these nations, China is flexing its military muscles and testing the resilience of U.S. partnerships – particularly as the Trump administration is destabilizing U.S.-led security structures.
Finally, these coordinated naval exercises serve as probing operations to test the reaction and resolve of the United States and its regional partners. As I have previously argued, the Trump administration’s volte-face on Ukraine threatens Taiwan’s security, prompting an increase in Chinese probing operations to examine U.S. commitment and the strength of its allies. As the U.S. continues to exhibit shaky support for traditional allies, China can gauge the feasibility of using force to reshape the Asia-Pacific balance of power through these probing operations.
SOUTH KOREA
Speaking of attempts to assert dominance, the US Navy dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to South Korea on Sunday. The deployment comes a few days after another North Korean missile test and represents the first visit by a US aircraft carrier to the Korean peninsula since June. Given how Pyongyang typically responds to this sort of splashy US military activity we can probably expect at least one more weapons test in the near future.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Rapid Support Forces militant group killed at least six people in an artillery barrage that hit the Abu Shouk displaced persons camp outside the besieged Sudanese city of Al-Fashir on Sunday. The RSF has been making an intense push to take that city in recent days and the resulting violence has hit the surrounding camps very hard.
BENIN
The Beninese military says its forces killed at least nine “terrorists” in an operation that took place overnight Thursday into Friday in northern Benin’s Alibori department. The operation took place in the wake of a bombing in that region that killed one soldier. Northern Benin continues to be troubled by jihadist violence spilling across the borders from Burkina Faso and Niger.
NIGER
Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin fighters reportedly ambushed an army patrol in northern Niger on Friday, killing 11 soldiers. Jihadist attacks happen relatively infrequently in the northern part of the country, which generally sees more activity by smugglers and other criminal actors.
SOMALIA
Somali authorities are claiming that another military operation in Hirshabelle state left over 40 al-Shabab fighters dead on Sunday. The Somali military claimed to have killed over 70 of the group’s fighters in Hirshabelle on Tuesday.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The M23 militant group staged the handover of what it claimed was a group of 20 Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) fighters to the Rwandan military on Saturday. Rwanda has long insisted that, considerable evidence to the contrary, its military is not aiding M23 and the only reason it has forces stationed in the eastern DRC is to counter the presence of the FDLR—a group whose origins go back to the flight of Hutu Interahamwe genocidaires from Rwanda in 1994. So the handover is supposed to justify Rwanda’s activities in the midst of intensifying international condemnation. In response, the Congolese military called the alleged handover a “faked incident in poor taste orchestrated with the sole aim of discrediting our army” and accused the Rwandan government of having taken “old FDLR detainees, dressed them in new military fatigues, and passed them off as FDLR fighters newly captured in Goma.”
The New York Times details the Congolese military weakness that has enabled M23 and Rwanda to seize such a large chunk of the eastern DRC:
On paper, Congo appears well placed to deal with threats coming from its much smaller neighbor. Experts estimate it has between 100,000 and 200,000 troops, far more than Rwanda or M23.
But the Congolese military has long been known for weakness and corruption.
Unmotivated soldiers boost their paltry incomes by extorting civilians, often at Congo’s hundreds of roadblocks, the most lucrative of which can pull in $900 a day, many times a soldier’s monthly salary.
Commanders collect payments from their subordinates — or extra salaries, for ghost workers who exist only on paper — in a long-entrenched system of graft and abuse. Troops lack trucks for transport, and instead often commandeer motorcycle taxis to get from deployment to deployment.
Meanwhile, the Ugandan military has reportedly expanded its footprint in the eastern DRC’s Ituri province, whose capital it occupied last month ostensibly to counter attacks by the Lendu CODECO militia against the Hema community. While Ugandan forces are in Ituri in cooperation with the Congolese military they may also be carving out their own sphere of influence similar to what Rwanda is doing.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The Russian military says it seized two more villages in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast on Saturday. Overnight and into Saturday the Russian military conducted a larger-than-usual aerial assault involving some 154 drones that struck targets across Ukraine. According to Ukrainian officials at least one person was killed.
Elsewhere, with the shockwaves from Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Friday still reverberating, the Ukrainian president headed to London over the weekend for a decidedly more supportive summit with European leaders. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with Zelensky on Saturday and then reportedly talked with French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump to discuss how to move forward on a Ukraine peace deal that meets Trump’s demands without conceding everything to Russia. Starmer, who claimed that he helped patch things up between Zelensky and Trump over the weekend, told reporters ahead of Sunday’s summit that the UK and France will form a “coalition of the willing” to support a peace deal while providing a security guarantee to Ukraine. The checkered history of that term notwithstanding, even Starmer’s coalition will demand what he called “a US backstop” that Trump has shown absolutely no inclination to provide.
Starmer’s efforts notwithstanding, while it would be inaccurate to say that Europe is a complete non-factor in this situation it is certainly not very much of a factor. European governments are years of concerted effort away from having the kind of military capacity to stand independently of the United States in a situation like this. In the immediate future the best that Starmer, Macron, et al can hope to do is to salvage a US-Ukrainian relationship that now seems broken. Zelensky himself thinks it can be salvaged and told the BBC on Sunday that he’s “ready to sign” the minerals deal that he wasn’t able to sign on Friday. But having been baited into a public argument with Trump, whose pettiness regarding Zelensky extended all the way to his choice of clothing, the Ukrainian leader now has to deal with various Trump courtiers demanding his resignation for insulting Dear Leader. If it is possible for Zelensky to patch things up with Trump it might require a level of groveling that he’s unable or unwilling to reach.
FRANCE
In an interview with Portuguese media on Saturday, Macron said that he was open to a “discussion” about Europe’s nuclear deterrent. Right now, Europe is sheltered by the US nuclear umbrella, but for obvious reasons European leaders are starting to wonder how much longer they can expect that to remain the case. Macron’s suggestion of a potential French nuclear umbrella is one possible alternative but that doesn’t mean it’s anywhere close to becoming reality.
AMERICAS
URUGUAY
New Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi took office on Saturday, bringing the center-left Broad Front coalition back to power after the five year term of conservative Luis Lacalle Pou. Orsi won a narrow victory in a runoff last November, in a race that was notable for being a relatively placid contest between center-left and center-right—something of a political rarity nowadays. His main task will be injecting some life into the Uruguayan economy, though how he plans to do that remains unclear.
GUYANA
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali accused a Venezuelan Coast Guard vessel of entering Guyanese waters on Saturday in an area where ExxonMobil has been contracted to manage oil exploration. Venezuela has a long-standing claim on western Guyana’s Essequibo region and its offshore waters so an incident like this was not entirely unexpected. Venezuelan officials insist that the vessel was in waters whose ownership has yet to be determined under international law.
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor considers what Trump’s outburst toward Zelensky on Friday could mean for the West as a geopolitical entity:
Zelensky may struggle to redeem himself in the eyes of Trump, who expected the Ukrainian leader to play the role of supplicant in a grand diplomatic bargain arranged over his head. As European leaders called for calm, analysts speculated an irked Trump could suspend military transfers to Ukraine. A shortfall in munitions for critical U.S.-made air defense systems, among other armaments, would be disastrous for a country that faces constant Russian bombardments and airstrikes.
European countries, including major powers like Britain and Germany, are seeking to fast-track increases in defense spending to help Ukraine. On Sunday, as he hosted Zelensky and other leaders on the continent, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer “called on other European governments to grow their militaries and to join a ‘coalition of the willing’ in taking up the slack in Ukraine,” my colleagues reported.
But there may be much more slack to take up if the Trump administration makes good on its longer-term plans to draw down U.S. forces in Europe as part of a broader strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific. “I just worry that, given, frankly, President Trump’s mercurial nature,” Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British diplomat and senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told my colleagues, “how much confidence really can Europe have in any degree of American protection and defense.”