World update: September 21-22 2019
Stories from Yemen, Ukraine, Nicaragua, and more
THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
September 20, 1519: Ferdinand Magellan sets sail with a small fleet intending to circumnavigate the globe. Magellan wouldn’t survive the voyage, but one of his vessels did, arriving in Spain in September 1522 under the command of Juan Sebastián Elcano and becoming the first ship to successfully complete that journey.
September 20, 2001: George W. Bush, in an address to Congress, declares war on terror. And we all lived happily ever after.
September 21, 1857: The Siege of Delhi ends
September 21, 1860: A combined British and French army defeats a Qing Dynasty army at the Battle of Palikao, named for a bridge in the eastern part of Beijing. The defeat caused the Xianfeng Emperor to flee his capital, leaving the city in European hands and hastening the end of the Second Opium War.
September 21, 1964: Maltese Independence Day
September 21, 1981: Belizean Independence Day
September 22, 1789: A Russian army under Alexander Suvorov defeats a vastly larger Ottoman army at the Battle of Rymnik, in Wallachia. Suvorov’s 25,000 men inflicted some 20,000 casualties on a 100,000 man Ottoman army, against less than 1000 of their own. The Russians occupied Wallachia for the rest of the 1787-1792 Russian-Ottoman War, though they returned the region to the Ottomans afterward.
September 22, 1965: The Indo-Pakistani War of 1965, fought over Kashmir, ends with a UN-brokered ceasefire. Although the outcome was indecisive, India was able to prevent a Pakistan-backed insurgency in Kashmir and demonstrated a military superiority over its rival while exposing weaknesses in the Pakistani military and sending the Pakistani economy into a rough patch. The war also caused both India and Pakistan to look for new allies, as the US and UK imposed an arms embargo on both countries and criticized both the Indian and Pakistani governments for their conduct. Pakistan’s current relationship with China and India’s Cold War relationship with the Soviet Union developed as a result of this war and the deterioration of both countries’ relations with Washington and London.
September 22, 1980: The Iran-Iraq War begins
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Syrian authorities say they intercepted a quad-copter drone carrying cluster bombs near the Golan on Saturday, stopping it before it could…do whatever it was supposed to do. Obviously the Israeli military is the likeliest source of the drone, though it’s unclear what they might be targeting in Syria for which they’d use a quad-copter with cluster bombs rather than a combat UAV that would be harder to bring down. The Israeli military is saying the drone is Iranian, which then leaves the question why the Syrians would be downing Iranian drones. It’s not inconceivable—the Syrians might want to stop an Iranian drone from attacking Israel and drawing an Israeli response. But you’d think they’d want to keep that sort of thing quiet.
YEMEN
In more news that doesn’t make much sense, the Wall Street Journal claims that unnamed Houthi whistle-blowers, for lack of a better term, have told “foreign diplomats” that Iran is planning another attack like the September 14 strike on Saudi oil facilities at Khurais and Abqaiq. Bear in mind that the Houthis still officially insist that they were responsible for that attack, not Iran. The WSJ says that these disaffected Houthis are angry because they were “pressed by Iran to play a role in” the Saudi attack and that their warnings reflect “disagreements within the Houthi movement over how closely to align with Tehran.” That they’ve come forward “could signal a break between Iran and at least some factions of the Yemeni rebels,” according to WSJ reporter Dion Nissenbaum.
This is an extremely thin story. As far as I can tell nobody else has independently picked up on it and the sourcing is (understandably, on some level) all anonymous. Nissenbaum is relying on “people familiar with the matter,” which probably means he hasn’t actually verified whether there really are any Houthi whistle-blowers, let alone whether or not they’re credible. What if these people are making the whole thing up to spin Nissenbaum and the WSJ, to help manufacture the justification for a military strike against Iran? If there really are informants can we be sure they’re Houthi leaders and not just pretending to be? If there are actual Houthi leaders saying this stuff, are they conveying genuine information or are they peddling fake news to keep the Saudis off balance? As far as I can tell Nissenbaum doesn’t even consider these possibilities. After the Iraq War you’d think reporters would be more circumspect about this sort of thing, but apparently not. Or maybe Nissenbaum doesn’t care whether or not he’s being spun.
IRAQ
Another unattributed airstrike appeared to target an Iraqi militia base near the Syrian border on Sunday. This time around the strike missed the base and caused neither damage nor casualties. Israel has been actively targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq for some time now, but the Saudis have also gotten in on this game (probably with Israeli help) since the Kurais-Abqaiq attack—they reportedly attacked an Iranian-linked militia on the Syrian side of the border a couple of days after that incident. It’s tempting to suggest that the Saudis were involved here since they’re more likely to miss than the Israelis are, but that’s obviously speculation.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The predominantly Arab Joint List has endorsed Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz to be Israel’s next prime minister, officially giving Gantz a larger support base than incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu but still not giving him a majority. The Joint List usually doesn’t endorse anybody for PM and none of the contenders ever court its support because they don’t want to be associated with an Arab political party, but the opportunity to remove Netanyahu from office was apparently too good to pass up.
Gantz still has an uphill battle to form a governing majority and the likeliest outcome still remains a coalition between Blue and White and Likud, with Avigdor Liberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party in the kingmaker role. Israeli President Reuven Rivlin has also been openly suggesting that a unity government would be the best way forward. Gantz would need both the Joint List and Liberman for a majority, and Liberman won’t serve in any sort of arrangement that includes the Arab party. On the other hand, if Liberman was still willing to support Netanyahu then Israeli politics wouldn’t be in this mess. The big obstacle to a unity government remains Netanyahu himself. Gantz has refused to serve in a government with Netanyahu and it’s difficult to image that the two of them could come to an agreement on how a unity coalition would work, who would lead it, and whether/how they would share the PM’s office.
EGYPT
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s security forces have been cracking down on protesters demanding that the president resign over corruption allegations:
The Egyptian Commission for Rights and Freedoms (ECRF), a Cairo-based NGO, reported on Sunday that at least 220 people had been arrested since protests began on Friday night. The organisation said it had set up an “emergency room” to deal with the spike in arrests, and that at least 100 more people were likely to have been detained after protests in Suez, Alexandria and Giza. Another NGO, the Egyptian Centre for Economic & Social Rights, stated it had recorded at least 274 arrests since the demonstrations began.
“We’re continuing to get cases around the clock,” said Mohamed Lotfy of ECRF. “I think the riot police and the ministry of the interior didn’t expect this size of protests.” ECRF recorded arrests in at least 12 locations, including Cairo, Giza, Alexandria, Suez, and towns such as Dakahlia, Qalyubia and Kafr el-Sheikh.
There are reports of injuries as police have turned tear gas as well as rubber and live bullets against the protesters, but there’s been no count of casualties.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Emirati authorities had to divert two flights away from Dubai International Airport on Sunday due to suspected drone activity. No further details have been forthcoming. The Houthis have threatened to attack targets in the UAE and claim they’ve attacked DIA before, but those claims are unconfirmed and Sunday’s incident doesn’t appear to have been violent.
SAUDI ARABIA
The Saudis are now looking at the GPS systems they’ve recovered in the missile wreckage from the September 14 attack. They may be able to generate some data as to where the attack originated, though that very much remains to be seen. Saudi officials apparently plan to offer proof that Iran was behind the attack during the United Nations General Assembly in an effort to build global support for some kind of (non-military) response.
IRAN
The Iranians, meanwhile, plan to present the UNGA with their own security plan for the Persian Gulf region, which unsurprisingly (and maybe not unjustifiably) calls for the US and other Western nations to butt out. The Iranians say they’ll guarantee security in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz in collaboration with “other regional countries,” but they want rid of the US-organized coalition that’s already planning to handle maritime security in the region. Obviously there’s no way the Saudis or Emiratis would ever go for something like this.
Iranian officials may be about to release the Stena Impero, the UK-flagged oil tanker they seized back in July in retaliation for the British seizure of an Iranian tanker at Gibraltar. State media is quoting a provincial ports official named Allahmorad Afifipour that the vessel could be released “soon,” and while he offered no timetable beyond that the ship’s Swedish owners seem to think it could be a matter of hours. It’s unclear whether the Iranians will also release the 16 crew members they’re still holding.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Taliban sent a diplomatic mission to China over the weekend, mostly—it appears—to talk about the breakdown in their talks with the United States. Given Beijing’s struggles to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, maybe they swapped notes. Chinese officials have been mum as to what, if anything, the two sides concluded during their talks.
PHILIPPINES
New polling shows why Philippine citizens haven’t recoiled at President Rodrigo Duterte’s serial murder campaign against drug users. The survey by pollster Social Weather Stations shows that 82 percent are satisfied that Duterte’s war on drugs has reduced the level of drug use and crime (apart from crimes carried out by the police, presumably) in the country. Another 12 percent are dissatisfied, but some portion of them appear to be dissatisfied because the effort hasn’t gone far enough. Philippine police say they’ve killed some 6700 “suspected drug dealers who all resisted arrest,” but multiple human rights organizations allege that they’ve summarily executed thousands upon thousands of people, most of them simply users, not dealers.
CHINA
Protests in Hong Kong turned violent again over the weekend. On Sunday, police used tear gas against a crowd that had damaged a metro station and mall entrance, set fire to barricades, assaulted at least one man, and begun throwing bricks at cops in the town of Sha Tin. Several other metro stations across Hong Kong were also targeted by protesters, who blame Mass Transit Railway authorities for shutting down to help police contain the demonstrations. The day before, police clashed with protesters in the towns of Tuen Mun and Yuen Long. Some of those clashes appear to have been caused in part by pro-China demonstrators who are pulling down “Lennon Walls,” which are basically makeshift bulletin boards covered in anti-government messages.
AFRICA
LIBYA
Seven countries—France, Germany, Italy, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States—issued a joint statement on Sunday saying that they “exclusively support” Libya’s National Oil Company as the country’s only energy firm. Presumably this was meant to discourage eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar from establishing his own oil exporter so as not to have to deal with the technically government-aligned NOC. Haftar has been making some moves in that direction. The fact that both Turkey—the Libyan government’s biggest foreign backer—and the UAE—Haftar’s biggest foreign backer—both joined the statement adds considerable heft to it.
SOMALIA
A group of al-Shabab fighters raided a military base early Sunday morning, taking weaponry before withdrawing. Al-Shabab claims it killed 23 Somali soldiers in the raid and that it made off with military vehicles and anti-aircraft weapons. The Somali military, while admitting there were casualties, hasn’t offered a casualty figure and hasn’t specified what the attackers were able to take. The attack involved at least one suicide bomber but it’s unclear if any other al-Shabab fighters were killed or wounded.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The case for Joe Biden having engaged in official corruption with respect to Ukraine looks pretty dubious—Biden, and the rest of the Obama administration, apparently leaned on Kyiv to fire one of its prosecutors because he wouldn’t prosecute the gas company that hired Biden’s son, Hunter, not in order to protect Hunter’s company. Meanwhile, the case for Donald Trump having engaged in official corruption by attempting to blackmail the Ukrainian government into handing over dirt on Biden appears quite strong:
Senior Ukrainian officials said they were blindsided over the summer when they heard the United States would withhold security assistance to the country.
“It was a total surprise,” said Pavlo A. Klimkin, who was Ukraine’s foreign minister in August when he learned of the Trump administration’s suspension of military aid by reading a news article.
The blocking of military aid to Ukraine is now at the center of questions about whether President Trump manipulated foreign policy to pressure the Ukrainian government to take action that would hurt Joseph R. Biden Jr., the former vice president and a top rival in the campaign for the presidency.
FRANCE
Paris’s weekly “yellow vest” protest was bolstered this week by the presence of climate protesters, a union protest against planned pension reforms, and “black bloc” anarchists. Police reportedly arrested at least 100 people and used tear gas to control the crowds.
SPAIN
Two new polls suggest that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party will gain seats in the November 10 snap election, but not enough to give it a parliamentary majority and end the country’s current political gridlock. Sánchez has thus far displayed little inclination to compromise with other parties, but unless he plans to send the country into yet another election after this one he’s going to have to soften up his resistance.
UNITED KINGDOM
“Senior legal sources” apparently think that the UK Supreme Court is about to rule that Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament was illegitimate. If so then it’s likely about to send the UK deeper into the muck than it already is. Johnson has said he’ll abide by a court ruling to recall parliament if that’s what happens, but it’s also rumored that he plans on dismissing the body again. He could also just declare that the court has no jurisdiction over parliamentary business and try to ignore the ruling. Whatever he does it should be a blast.
I’m sure he’ll take it in stride (UK government via Wikimedia Commons)
AMERICAS
NICARAGUA
An opposition group calling itself the Nicaraguan Patriotic Alliance claimed responsibility for “a series of actions of a military nature”—i.e., three bombings—on Saturday. None of the blasts harmed anyone, but one did damage a bridge to Nicaragua’s only Pacific Ocean port in the town of Corinto. The group says it will continue carrying out such attacks until Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega resigns.
The bombings may represent a shift in the movement to oust Ortega, though public demonstrations toward that end are continuing:
HONDURAS
US and Honduran negotiators are discussing a plan to increase the number of temporary work visas available to Hondurans as part of a broader migration deal. Honduras is the only one of the three “Northern Triangle” countries that has yet to reach a deal with the US since acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan made cutting migration deals with those countries a priority.
EL SALVADOR
The New York Times has the story of a geopolitical tug of war taking place between China and the US in El Salvador:
The offer was befuddling: A little over a year ago, families living on Isla Perico, a speck of an island in a destitute corner of El Salvador, were offered $7,000 each to pack up and move to the mainland.
The islanders were told their move was necessary to help achieve China’s plan for turning a downtrodden patch of Central America into a global trade hub and manufacturing powerhouse.
But they steadfastly refused, doubting that they would benefit from any bonanza the Chinese could bring.
“Where would we go?” said Mercedes Hernández, cradling a 1-year-old baby. “We have a life here.”
Over the months that followed, the island’s roughly 35 families would become unlikely participants in a struggle between Beijing and Washington, which wants to stop the Chinese from gaining a strategic foothold in a tiny impoverished nation that sits on its doorstep.
Donald Trump’s threats against El Salvador over immigration shockingly didn’t help its case against China, but it seems that a recent US push to discredit Chinese motives has succeeding to some extent in turning Salvadoran public opinion against Beijing. Still, the US continues to counter China’s soft power diplomacy with bluster and bullying, which if you’re in a competition for global hegemony is not a long-term recipe for success.
UNITED STATES
Then again, maybe there is no long-term recipe for success. That’s likely to be a big theme at the UN General Assembly this week, where the focus is expected to be on climate change and the various conflicts or potential conflicts around the world. However, underneath the surface the real issue, given the rise of reactionary nationalist governments all over the world, is likely to be whether and to what extent the UN actually matters anymore:
With so many monarchs, presidents and prime ministers at the U.N. this year, "we have a chance to advance diplomacy for peace," [UN Secretary-General António] Guterres said. "This is the moment to cool tensions."
Whether that happens remains to be seen. Many diplomats aren't optimistic.
"It's a challenging time for the United Nations," said China's U.N. ambassador, Zhang Jun, whose nation is embroiled in a protracted dispute with the United States over tariffs. "We are faced with rising of unilateralism, protectionism, and we are faced with global challenges like climate change, like terrorism, like cybersecurity."
"More importantly," he said, "we are faced with a deficit of trust."
As the world's second-largest economy and a member of the U.N. Security Council, "China firmly defends multilateralism, and China firmly supports the United Nations," Zhang said Friday.
But divisions among the five council members—the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France—have paralyzed action on the eight-year conflict in Syria and other global crises. On global warming, the Trump administration remains at odds with many countries.