World update: October 10 2019
Stories from Syria, China, the United Kingdom, and more
THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 9, 1740: Dutch colonial authorities and native sympathizers brutally suppress an uprising among ethnic Chinese citizens of Batavia (modern Jakarta). By the end of the massacre, on October 22, more than 10,000 people were dead—nearly all of them Chinese—and the city’s remaining Chinese residents were moved into a “Chinatown” outside the city that functioned more as a detention camp than a residential neighborhood.
October 9, 1967: Ernesto “Che” Guevara is executed by Bolivian authorities one day after being captured while attempting to foment a communist revolution.
October 10, 680: The Third Shiʿa imam, Husayn b. Ali, is killed along with most of his followers by a much larger Umayyad army at the Battle of Karbala. Perhaps the formative event in the coalescence of Shiʿism as a faction within Islam, the battle is commemorated annually on Ashura, which is its anniversary (10 Muharram 61) according to the Islamic calendar.
October 10 (maybe), 732 (again maybe): The Battle of Tours
October 10, 1911: An uprising in the city of Wuchang (which is now a part of the city of Wuhan) led by the Tongmenghui movement leads to the Xinhai Revolution. It ended in February 1912 with the toppling of the Qing Dynasty and the formation of the Republic of China. This marked the end of thousands of years of imperial Chinese rule. Commemorated today in Taiwan as the National Day of the Republic of China.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Thursday was Day 2 of Operation Peace Spring, and the human toll is becoming a little clearer. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that some 60,000 people have already been displaced by the invasion, with no doubt many more to come. At least 23 Syrian Democratic Forces fighters have been killed, though the Turkish military puts that figure at over 170 at last count. At least six people have been killed in Turkey from SDF artillery fire, while the SDF says that at least nine civilians have been killed in Syria. Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel proxies have reportedly encircled the border towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn, Peace Spring’s two main initial objectives.
You can add Italy and Israel to the list of countries expressing disapproval at Turkey’s invasion, though frankly at this point it might be easier to list the countries that haven’t expressed some misgivings about the operation. Qatar is the only one that immediately comes to mind, and given the Qataris’ need to maintain an alliance with Turkey for military reasons that’s understandable. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did what he does best on Thursday—angrily whining about his foreign critics—in a rage-gasm speech wherein he, among other things, once again threatened to release millions of Syrian refugees into Europe unless European leaders are nicer to him (specifically, unless they refrain from calling his occupation of northern Syria an “occupation”). Archeologists estimate that this is approximately the 433,000th time Erdoğan has made this threat, going back to the Late Bronze Age. Seeing as how one of Erdoğan’s goals in occupying northern Syria is supposedly to return those Syrian refugees to their home country, if he just forwards them on to Europe maybe he can stop the invasion.
He gets mad a lot (ArtemAugust via Wikimedia Commons)
The SDF’s bad week got a lot worse on Thursday when Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Maqdad told reporters that Damascus “won’t accept any dialogue or talk with those who had become hostages to foreign forces.” That’s harsh. Something tells me it’s a negotiating tactic, though, because I suspect that the Syrian government would much rather take control of, say, eastern Syria’s oil fields from the SDF than see them fall into Turkey’s hands. Nevertheless I’d say the government at a minimum will demand that the SDF kick out whatever US forces are left in eastern Syria, and I wouldn’t expect very much Kurdish autonomy in the near future.
On the Islamic State front, Turkey now says that it will be responsible for IS prisoners and the anti-IS mission only in the “safe zone” it’s carving out along the border. Which is all well and good, I guess, but most of the SDF’s IS captives are being held outside that zone and there’s no reason for the SDF to continue devoting effort and manpower to holding them captive when it’s got much bigger fish to fry. Basically this is a way for Turkey to dodge the blame if this operation results in an IS resurgence in eastern Syria. The Turks insist they have no designs on pressing farther than 30 kilometers into Syria, and though that’s probably a lie it does suggest that they’re going to move slowly in expanding past the border region—too slowly to prevent, say, the collapse of the al-Hol refugee camp with its thousands of IS prisoners. Even along the border their promise to manage the anti-IS operation rings a little hollow when they’re shelling SDF prison facilities and risking the release of IS fighters being held in them.
Congress is debating a package of pretty substantial sanctions against Turkey over the invasion, and there’s reason to believe it could pass something by a wide enough margin to get past a Donald Trump veto. Speaking of our Glorious Leader, he’s doing…well, whatever this is:
YEMEN
The Houthis have offered the Yemeni government a new, relatively small prisoner swap involving around 2000 people as a first step toward further peace talks. This is a little more manageable than the 15,000 person swap the Houthis and the government negotiated back in December, which has never been implemented because of disputes about the prisoner lists the sides have exchanged. It would be the third Houthi concession in recent weeks, following last month’s moratorium on striking targets in Saudi Arabia and unilateral prisoner release.
TURKEY
The Arab Center’s Mustafa Gurbuz argues that Turkish foreign policy is becoming increasingly incoherent:
Turkish foreign policy confusions are not confined to Syria. From Libya to Sudan, Turkey has found itself in intense competition and military conflicts at multiple fronts. As Turkey’s “Muslim Democracy” model and soft power have been fading away, Turkish military activism now dominates its foreign policy vision. A trust in hard power, however, requires a match between capabilities and aspirations. Despite the ambitious nature of Turkey’s regional plans as an aspiring hegemon, Ankara has long suffered from the lack of skill in delivering successful outcomes.
A sketch of Turkey’s current policy choices in the region indicates two contradictory trends: 1) a willingness to push the neo-Ottomanist agenda with Arab Spring ideals, i.e. the resistance to the status quo; and 2) an impulse to prioritize Turkish nationalist interest over the ideals of the Arab Spring. In Libya, Ankara is on the defensive to protect what could be its last bastion in northern Africa against the Egypt-UAE-Saudi Arabia alliance. In the Red Sea region, Turkey lacks a long-term vision; indeed, will Ankara normalize relations with the new Sudanese regime to protect its economic interests and investments, or will it choose to continue sheltering the high-level bureaucrats from the regime of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir?
IRAQ
Amnesty International has issued a statement on the violent repression of recent Iraqi protests in which it takes issue with Baghdad’s claim that the snipers who have been firing at demonstrators were not sanctioned by the government. Amnesty says that witnesses reported the sniper fire coming from behind government lines and suggests that the failure of Iraqi authorities to protect protesters from the snipers or to arrest anybody in connection with the sniper shootings should be taken as evidence that the snipers were in fact part of the government’s response to the protests. It also alleges a campaign of intimidation by Iraqi security forces against journalists trying to cover the demonstrations. On the plus side, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has appointed new education and health ministers. That’s sure to fix everything.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Israel’s Likud Party quietly held an internal confidence vote in leader Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday in lieu of the full-fledged leadership election that Netanyahu floated last week but then walked back. And when I say “quietly,” I mean Netanyahu didn’t even attend the vote, along with the vast majority of the party’s membership. He did win, so I guess he’s got that going for him.
ASIA
KYRGYZSTAN
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are continuing to negotiate their borders almost 40 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the main bone of contention being access to water resources:
PAKISTAN
Imran Khan is likely on his way to Saudi Arabia and Iran to act on a US request that he try to mediate the conflict between those two Persian Gulf states and between Iran and the United States. Adam Weinstein argues that Khan can play at least a short-term role in reducing tensions but that Pakistan’s dependence on US and Saudi aid raises questions about its long-term credibility as a mediator:
If Washington and Tehran genuinely seek a solution to their disputes, then it would be foolish not to accept Pakistan as an initial mediator. However, Pakistan’s domestic politics and foreign relations may prove too unpredictable for it to serve in the role long-term. The moment for Pakistan’s mediation, therefore, is fleeting.
Islamabad’s relationship with Iran and the United States is warm enough to facilitate dialogue but just acrimonious enough so that neither Tehran nor Washington view Islamabad as an agent of the other. But, Pakistan also isn’t immune to the competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So far, Pakistan has managed to largely remain neutral on the conflict in Yemen. However, as the rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh escalates, Pakistan will face increased pressure to pick a side. This risks spoiling its ability to mediate.
Historically, Oman has been the preferred interlocutor in the region. It was precisely Oman’s distance from Saudi influence, despite being a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which made it an ideal mediator between Washington and Tehran in the past. Islamabad’s reliance on its relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia is greater in comparison. However, its status as a nuclear power places a cap on the degree to which it can be coerced. This grants its military establishment the ability to take unchecked foreign policy risks such as periodic sponsorship of terrorist groups without concern that relations with the United States will completely deteriorate. The distance from Washington that this dysfunctional dynamic creates will prove an asset if Pakistan is to be viewed as an objective mediator by Iran.
KASHMIR
The Pakistani military says that cross-border fire from the Indian side of Kashmir’s line of control killed one Pakistani soldier and wounded two civilians on Thursday. India has not commented on the charge.
INDONESIA
Indonesian Security Minister Wiranto was attacked and seriously injured by a knife-wielding man in Benten province on Thursday. Wiranto was stabbed twice but was taken to hospital and is said to be in stable condition. Indonesian authorities are characterizing the attacker as having been “inspired” by Islamic State rhetoric.
CHINA
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is in Washington for trade talks with Trump administration officials, and based on Donald Trump’s comments to reporters—and his plan to host Liu at the White House on Friday, it would appear that things went pretty well. The two sides seem to have opted not to go for a difficult-to-negotiate comprehensive deal in one fell swoop and are instead focusing on areas that aren’t particularly contentious. If there’s no setback on Friday there’s a decent chance Trump will opt to postpone new US tariffs scheduled to go into effect on October 15. The potential hangup is that Trump still seems to prefer one big deal that covers all points of dispute between Beijing and Washington, so there’s still a chance he could balk at anything narrower than that.
Apple CEO Tim Cook is under some fire for his company’s decision to remove a Hong Kong live map app from the app store. Hong Kong police have apparently told Apple that protesters were using the map to target police officers. Protesters say they were using the app to avoid confrontations with massed police and that removing it puts them at greater risk. Frankly I think we can all agree that when massive technology giants and governments collaborate with one another only good things can come of it.
AFRICA
TUNISIA
Hitherto jailed Tunisian presidential candidate Nabil Karoui, fresh off of being sprung from the joint by a Tunisian appeals court on Wednesday, is now asking for Sunday’s runoff election to be postponed for a week so that he can, you know, campaign. Karoui is supposed to face lawyer Kaïs Saïed in the runoff, but he’s been in jail since August on corruption charges.
MALI
Islamist groups in Mali and across West Africa may be using long-standing but dormant inter-communal tensions to create room for their organizations:
Islamist militants who once tried to conquer Mali by force are striking again with an insidious new strategy, security analysts say: Fighters linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are provoking feuds between old neighbors — the Fulani and the Dogon — and gaining ground by offering to protect victims of the conflict they’re stoking. Now a record number of people are fleeing their homes in this West African nation twice the size of Texas.
The extremist groups “broke down systems that usually deal with intercommunity violence,” said Dennis Hankins, U.S. ambassador to Mali.
Chaos has spilled south into countries previously unshaken by terrorism, including Burkina Faso and Benin, and threatens to turn a growing swath of West Africa into a refuge for Islamist groups who have lost territory in Syria and Iraq and aim to rouse followers elsewhere.
West Africa’s al-Qaeda and IS affiliates have done a particular number on the Fulani community. Because the Fulani are predominantly Muslim, when Islamist fighters carry out an attack, the communities affected (Christian farmers in Nigeria, the Dogon in Mali, etc.) may retaliate against the Fulani, which then draws a further retaliation from the Fulani and also creates an environment where it’s easier for the Islamists to recruit among Fulani tribesmen. That these communities have historical tensions with the Fulani—which mostly revolve around the contest between farmers and herders for fertile land, not religion—makes it easier for the Islamists to provoke violence.
MOZAMBIQUE
With Mozambique gearing up for a general election on Tuesday, four members of the country’s elite Rapid Intervention Force police unit are being accused of gunning down a poll observer in Gaza province on Monday. It’s not clear exactly what’s going on here but it doesn’t bode terribly well for the vote. Mozambique continues to be roiled by tensions dating back to its 1977-1992 civil war, with the ruling FRELIMO party and the former rebel RENAMO group continuing their rivalry at the ballot box—and, unfortunately, sometimes not at the ballot box.
EUROPE
ROMANIA
Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă’s lost a parliamentary no confidence vote on Thursday and as a result Romania may be in for some rocky times ahead. While ousting the Social Democrats may have been relatively easy, especially given the party’s decline in popularity as it’s pursued a poorly conceived crusade to decriminalize corruption, but the Romanian opposition is fairly fragmented and cobbling together a majority coalition may be easier said than done. Normally an election would solve that problem, but with Romania holding a presidential election next month it can’t, by law, hold a parliamentary election until sometime after that.
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
The governments of both of Bosnia’s autonomous regions—the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, jointly agreed on Thursday to adopt a package of European Union-recommended economic reforms that could actually bring them a little closer together if it’s fully implemented. Among the reforms are initiatives to streamline administrative systems, like registering corporations, so that they’re interchangeable between the two regions. The one thing upon which Bosnia’s Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks can agree is that they’d all like to be in the EU, but the EU is not going to admit the country in its current dysfunctional state.
DENMARK
The Danish government is setting up border checks on the Oresund bridge, which connects it with Sweden. Why? Because there are at least seven Swedish nationals in custody right now in Denmark on violent criminal charges. The Swedish government, which has plenty of violent crime to deal with itself, is supporting the Danish move, but the EU will have to sign off since it impinges on freedom of movement.
UNITED KINGDOM
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar met on Thursday to talk about Brexit, after which Varadkar, remarkably, sounded positively optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement by the UK’s October 31 deadline. Which is pretty remarkable because just a few days ago UK officials were declaring the prospects of a deal all but dead. The main remaining sticking point is over the Irish border, so Varadkar for the moment may be the most consequential EU leader in these negotiations.
It’s unclear what Johnson offered to make Varadkar so happy, but Sky News is reporting that it had to do with a “pared down” free trade agreement that would eliminate tariffs. That agreement would not, however, remove the need for customs checks at the border, which is the main issue. So far the only solution Johnson has offered to that problem is to turn the border into a 20 mile wide zone and use magical technology to make the customs check process seamless. Johnson also seems to have changed his previous Brexit plan so that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party won’t have basically unchecked control over the nature of Northern Ireland’s relationship with Ireland. This was another major sticking point for Varadkar.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
Protesters in Quito on Thursday captured eight police officers and then paraded them on to a stage in a public spectacle, in the latest sign that the situation in Ecuador is spiraling out of control. Demonstrations against President Lenín Moreno’s austerity agenda began last week and have risen to such a level that Moreno moved the Ecuadorean government from Quito to the city of Guayaquil earlier this week to try to escape the worst of it. At least two people have been killed with protest leaders putting the death toll at five. Protesters have also begun turning on local media, accusing reporters of downplaying police violence, and the situation for journalists seems precarious.
HAITI
At the New Yorker, writer Edwidge Danticat details some of the corruption that’s caused Haitians to demand the ouster of President Jovenal Moïse:
It’s been thirty-two months since Moïse was sworn into office after a contested, fraud-plagued, two-round election cycle in which only eighteen per cent of eligible voters participated. In a country of more than ten million people, about six hundred thousand voted for him. Even before taking his Presidential oath, Moïse was accused by Haiti’s Central Financial Intelligence Unit (UCREF) of having laundered millions of dollars. A few months into his term, he fired the director of UCREF—a move that probably led to Moïse being cleared of the laundering charges, which he has denied.
Unknown to most Haitians until he was handpicked by his predecessor, Michel Martelly—who also came to power through elections mired in fraud—Moïse was presented as a successful rural businessman from outside Haiti’s political class, a banana exporter nicknamed Nèg Bannann, or Banana Man. Less advertised was that he was also an auto-parts dealer and a supposed road-construction magnate. According to two reports published earlier this year by Haiti’s Superior Court of Auditors and Administrative Disputes, in 2014, before he’d officially become a Presidential candidate, Moïse received more than a million dollars from Martelly’s government, funds that were allocated for road construction and repair in the northern region of the country. The government auditors report that Moïse was paid twice for the same contract, once as the head of Agritrans and again as the leader of another firm, called Betexs. The two firms were listed as having the same staff and projects, as well as the same government patent and tax-identification number. The road for which the money was doubly paid shows no sign of having been constructed or repaired. Moïse also got more than a hundred thousand dollars for another one of his companies, Comphener S.A., to install solar panels on street lamps.
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Arab Center’s Joe Macaron looks at the new leadership in Donald Trump’s Pentagon:
Mark Esper, who began serving as the 27th US secretary of defense last July, is a graduate of the US Military Academy at West Point and served as an infantry officer in the 1990-1991 Gulf War. This month, General Mark Milley, a Princeton and Columbia graduate who hails from the ranks of the army, officially became the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. General Kenneth McKenzie, a Marine Corps commander who led battles in the Iraqi and Afghan wars, became the 14th commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) last March. Moving forward and as part of the Trump Administration, these new leaders—all confirmed by near unanimity in the Senate—will play a key role in shaping US foreign policy in what has been an unpredictable presidency, one marked by erratic decisions on Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, China, and North Korea, among other foreign policy challenges.
The Pentagon’s internal balance of power has shifted from the Marine Corps to the Army with the rise of Esper and Milley, compared to their respective Marine Corps predecessors James Mattis and General Joseph Dunford. Moreover, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign advisor David Urban advocated for Esper and Milley, which explains that Trump made these appointments based on his personal interactions and perceived loyalty of the candidates.
Esper and Milley appear to see eye to eye on several issues, including the belief that China is the main threat to the United States. McKenzie, as CENTCOM commander and an Iran hawk, may need to fight some turf wars to keep resources from being shifted out of the Middle East and into the Indo-Pacific region to counter Beijing.