World update: November 5 2019
Stories from the United Arab Emirates, Libya, Bolivia, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
November 4, 1979: The Iran Hostage Crisis begins
November 4, 1995: Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated by a right-wing Israeli radical named Yigal Amir. Rabin’s murder is often seen as the reason for the failure of the Oslo peace process, which he’d begun a couple of years earlier with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Oslo’s internal flaws probably doomed it to failure anyway, but Rabin’s killing did hasten the shift of Israeli politics to the right and led indirectly to Benjamin Netanyahu’s first stint as prime minister.
November 5, 1556: At the Second Battle of Panipat, the army of the would-be Hindu ruler of northern India, Hem Chandra Vikramaditya, is defeated by the Mughal Empire under the young Emperor Akbar and his regent, Bayram Khan. The Mughal victory ended a string of victories by Hem Chandra, who was the de facto ruler of the remnants of the Sur Empire, an early Mughal rival. His death led to the ultimate collapse of the Sur and left the Mughals as the unchecked power in northern India.
Novvember 5, 1605: Guy Fawkes is arrested by English authorities for his role in the “Gunpowder Plot,” a scheme by a group of Catholics to blow up the House of Lords with King James I in it and install James’ young daughter Elizabeth as a Catholic monarch. Fawkes became the symbol of the plot, and his arrest is celebrated annually as “Guy Fawkes Day” or “Guy Fawkes Night.” Fawkes’ image went from reviled would-be assassin in the years following the foiled plot to something more sympathetic by the 19th and into the 20th centuries. Since the publication of V for Vendetta, whose protagonist wears a Guy Fawkes mask, his image has morphed further into a symbol of resistance to the establishment, whatever one defines that to be.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Turkey and Russia are continuing their joint patrols of the northeastern Syrian border region, and residents seem really pleased to have them there. On Tuesday, for example, they showered a patrol convoy with eggs, presumably because they were worried that the soldiers may have forgotten to eat a healthy breakfast, and rocks, because you never know when a good rock might come in handy in a pinch. They’re really very useful. Al-Monitor’s Amberin Zaman seems to think that the whole idea of a Turkish buffer zone along the border is collapsing, between the chilly reception from locals and the fact that Turkey’s “Syrian National Army” proxies can’t seem to stop fighting with the Syrian army, which they did again over the weekend near Tell Tamar.
The buffer zone plan may also be in danger because the Turks continue to insist that the Kurdish YPG militia, which makes up the bulk of the Syrian Democratic Forces, has not withdrawn from the border area as it is obliged to do under the deal Turkey and Russia struck last month. Turkey has threatened to expand its “buffer zone” if it decides that’s necessary for security reasons, something that would definitely risk collapsing the house of cards that northeastern Syria has become.
Meanwhile, the US continues to redeploy its forces to “secure” eastern Syrian oilfields, a mission with no clear goal other than to keep US soldiers in Syria despite Donald Trump’s repeatedly stated desire to withdraw them. But Yahoo’s Sean Naylor reports that there are concerns about the security of those US forces now that Trump’s aborted effort to withdraw them has damaged the US-SDF relationship and forced the Kurds to expand their cooperation with the Syrian government. US forces in northeastern Syria have relied on the SDF for security and intelligence, and if those channels are now compromised then it’s going to be harder for those US troops to remain in Syria in (relative) safety.
YEMEN
The Yemeni government and the separatist Southern Transitional Council on Tuesday signed an agreement to end the STC’s uprising in southern Yemen and form a new unity government. As had already been reported, the STC will gain control of several cabinet ministries in return for giving up control of the territories it seized during an insurrection that started back in August. Among those territories is the city of Aden, which will resume its former status as the temporary capital of the displaced Yemeni government. The agreement means the nominally pro-government coalition can refocus on battling the Houthi insurrection in northern Yemen, though southern Yemeni separatism is going to continue to be an issue moving forward.
TURKEY
If there are any questions about the popularity of Turkey’s invasion of northeastern Syria inside Turkey, recent polling should put them to rest. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s approval rating rose 3.7 percent in October to its highest level (48 percent) in over a year. His disapproval rating has dropped to the lowest level it’s been since 2016. Even if the rest of “Operation Peace Spring” isn’t going exactly the way Erdoğan imagined it, these numbers are reward enough for him.
IRAQ
Iraqi security forces have killed at least 13 protesters over the past two days, at least one during the funeral procession for another protester who’d already been killed. That makes around 260 protesters gunned down in a bit over a month since the protests began, accounting for a substantial pause in the middle of October for the Arbaeen pilgrimage. Iraqi security forces can’t realistically murder every Iraqi who has come to oppose their government—every killing only seems to make the demonstrators more recalcitrant in demanding wholesale political change—but so far “go home or take a bullet” seems to be the only deal that Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi and his backers seem willing to offer. Abdul-Mahdi has made some vague promises about political reform, but nothing the Iraqi people haven’t heard many, many times before.
LEBANON
The Lebanese army deployed around the country to open roads that have been closed by protesters. There were reports of clashes with protesters in some places, especially in Beirut, but with the exception of one serious scuffle on a highway north of Beirut this operation seems to have gone mostly peacefully. Demonstrators continue to demand a “technocratic” government and higher levels of spending on programs for the poor.
KUWAIT
The Kuwaiti government says it’s relayed “messages” from Iran to the governments of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain expressing Tehran’s desire for talks on regional stability, but that there’s been “no answers” from either country. This would bolster Iranian claims that it’s sought negotiations but hasn’t found any takers.
On the other hand, the Kuwaitis say their own talks with Saudi Arabia on managing the “Neutral Zone” around the southern Kuwaiti border are going pretty well. That border was never really delineated when British officials set out to establish national boundaries in the region after World War I, and so the two countries have agreed to basically divide it while jointly managing the area’s oil production. That arrangement broke down somewhat in 2014-2015 and the oilfields in the Neutral Zone have been dormant ever since. The two governments have been circling a new agreement governing those oilfields for several months and the Kuwaitis seem to think a final agreement may be close.
The Neutral Zone, highlighted in green (Wikimedia Commons)
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
HIV-positive prisoners in the UAE are being denied proper medical treatment, according to Human Rights Watch:
On Monday the organisation claimed that non-national prisoners in at least one major UAE jail have seen delays, interruptions or a complete freeze on their access to antiretrovirals – drugs that suppress the activity of the HIV infection.
UAE citizens have access to free HIV-care programmes.
In a country where migrant workers make up 80% of the population and account for the majority of the workforce, the discriminatory policy could have devastating effects on the health of those living with HIV.
Anyone applying for a work or resident permit in UAE has to have a blood test upon arrival in the country. According to the FCO travel advice for UAE, “those testing positive for HIV or hepatitis are detained and then deported. There is no appeal process.”
Despite claims that HIV treatment is extended to expats, HRW cited multiple sources, including former detainees, who said that denial of treatment is common in prison and those with HIV are kept in an isolated area away from other prisoners, where they face “stigma and systemic discrimination”.
IRAN
The Iranian government made its next move to reduce compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal on Tuesday, and it’s a fairly provocative one. The Iranians have resumed enriching uranium to five percent in their underground centrifuge facility at Fordow. Under the nuclear deal they can’t even have uranium on the premises at Fordow until the agreement sunsets. Of course, under the nuclear deal the US can’t impose nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, and that hasn’t stopped the Trump administration. Fordow is a sensitive site because a) it’s hardened against airstrikes and b) because Iran only disclosed the site to the International Atomic Energy Agency (in 2009) after the US had already learned about it. The Iranians disclosed its existence before it opened, which seems consistent with IAEA rules, but the US government has long maintained that they should have revealed it sooner.
ASIA
TAJIKISTAN
The Tajik and Uzbek governments have reportedly cut a deal to finally resolve their longstanding border issues, which go all the way back to Soviet days when delineating borders in Central Asia just didn’t seem like a huge priority. There is a problem however, in that part of the deal calls for Tajikistan to give Uzbekistan a three square kilometer parcel of land in northern Tajikistan that includes a working gold mine. Uzbekistan will hand over a similar sized piece of land to Tajikistan, but it’s the mine that has Tajiks a little concerned that maybe they’re getting a bad deal. It’s unclear what’s going to happen to the mine—its administration could remain with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan could offer some kind of compensation for it, or maybe the Tajik government really is prepared to accept a bad deal.
AFGHANISTAN
The Wilson Center’s Michael Kugelman views the Islamic State’s Khorasan Province as the model for what the group will look like following the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi—autonomous affiliates that can thrive even as their parent organization has been weakened:
ISK has also become a strongly autonomous group. There are, to be sure, deep ISK links with the parent Islamic State. According to a recent U.N. report and other research, this includes some financial backing, coordination with ISK on personnel decisions, and the sharing of propaganda videos. In his 2018 book on ISK, Antonio Giustozzi describes how the Islamic State was very hands-on in helping to get ISK off the ground. Funds were provided, directions were given, and advisors were sent.
However, beyond this, there is evidence that ISK is not terribly dependent on the Islamic State for financial and labor resources. The group’s revenue in Afghanistan, according to the U.N., is largely drawn from local sources—such as illegal mining, timber logging, extortion, and household taxation. According to Giustozzi, ISK also receives financial aid from Qatar and Saudi Arabia and private donors in the Gulf. Its recruits are mainly local and regional (predominantly South and Central Asian). Additionally, only about 10 percent of ISK fighters are estimated to have experience in Iraq or Syria.
THAILAND
At least 15 people were killed on Tuesday when southern separatists (presumably) attacked a security checkpoint in Thailand’s Yala province. Predominantly Muslim southern Thailand has been embroiled in an insurgency since 2004, though the frequency of violent incidents waxes and wanes.
PHILIPPINES
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has named his vice president, Leni Robredo, as his “drug czar,” even though she doesn’t want the job. Because vice presidents are elected separately in the Philippines, it can happen that a VP and president aren’t close politically, and that’s certainly the case with Robredo, who is a frequent critic of both Duterte and his exceedingly violent war on (people who are addicted to) drugs. Duterte’s move to appoint her as “co-chair of an inter-agency panel on drugs” is a troll, especially given that the job doesn’t actually seem to exist currently and there’s no reason to think that Duterte would imbue it with any real authority. Duterte’s drug war has led to some 7000 or so extrajudicial murders by his security forces, and the lovable Philippine leader has, in comparing himself to Adolf Hitler, said he’d be “happy to slaughter” upwards of three million drug addicts.
CHINA
Protesters wearing Guy Fawkes masks in honor of Tuesday’s anniversary (see above) gathered in Kowloon on Tuesday. There were some clashes with police but in comparison with outbursts over the weekend they don’t appear to have been especially heated. That said, a pro-Beijing politician named Junius Ho was reportedly stabbed in an attack on Wednesday while campaigning for district council. Ho was taken to the hospital and at this point it’s not clear what his condition is. His attacker was arrested but his motive is also unclear at the moment.
AFRICA
LIBYA
Khalifa Haftar’s assault on Tripoli may be getting a big boost from a relatively new player in Libya—the Russian military:
The casualties at the Aziziya field hospital south of Tripoli used to arrive with gaping wounds and shattered limbs, victims of the haphazard artillery fire that has defined battles among Libyan militias. But now medics say they are seeing something new: narrow holes in a head or a torso left by bullets that kill instantly and never exit the body.
It is the work, Libyan fighters say, of Russian mercenaries, including skilled snipers. The lack of an exit wound is a signature of the ammunition used by the same Russian mercenaries elsewhere.
The snipers are among about 200 Russian fighters who have arrived in Libya in the last six weeks, part of a broad campaign by the Kremlin to reassert its influence across the Middle East and Africa.
After four years of behind-the-scenes financial and tactical support for a would-be Libyan strongman, Russia is now pushing far more directly to shape the outcome of Libya’s messy civil war. It has introduced advanced Sukhoi jets, coordinated missile strikes, and precision-guided artillery, as well as the snipers — the same playbook that made Moscow a kingmaker in the Syrian civil war.
The Russian government often uses mercenaries in order to give its foreign interventions plausible deniability. The comparison to Syria is apt to a point, but the main difference in Libya would be that there’s no serious Western interest (lip service aside) in propping up the internationally recognized Libyan government and so Haftar’s Russian-paved path to victory may be even easier than Bashar al-Assad’s was. Interestingly this does present another instance wherein Russia and Turkey, who are otherwise on good terms, find themselves on opposite sides of a foreign conflict. Turkey has been a strong supporter of the Libyan government.
MALI
The French military announced Tuesday that its forces killed a leading al-Qaeda figure in Mali in an operation that took place on October 9. Ali Maychou was a senior leader in al-Qaeda affiliate Jamaʿat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin and the “second most-wanted terrorist in the Sahel,” according to French officials. I’m not sure if the most-wanted terrorist in the Sahel is JNIM leader Iyad Ag Ghaly—who is considered to be somewhat of a figurehead—or somebody else.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
Ukrainian Finance Minister Oksana Markarova on Tuesday denied reports that Kyiv’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund have not broken down and said that the two sides are close to a deal on a three year loan package. Of course any IMF loan package means austerity, so that will be fun for everybody.
POLAND
The European Court of Justice ruled on Tuesday that the Polish government violated EU law in 2017 when it lowered its mandatory retirement age for judges (which had been 67) and created unequal policies for men (lowered to 65) and women (lowered to 60). It specifically cited the gender imbalance as discriminatory, though the Polish government changed course on that bit last year and made the ages the same for both genders again, but also raised questions about other provisions, like one that allows the Polish justice minister to waive the retirement obligation on a case-by-case basis. Right-wing governments in central and eastern Europe have gone to some lengths to erode judicial independence, even though that risks running afoul of EU rules.
AMERICAS
CHILE
Even though protesters continue to forcefully reject his austerity program and his popularly is circling somewhere around “wasp sting on the perineum” levels, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera says he will not resign. Piñera told the BBC on Tuesday that Chile’s problems are not only his fault—and they do go back to the Pinochet dictatorship so fair enough—but he is the one whose resignation protesters are demanding right now. Piñera also said that he’ll investigate allegations of police brutality toward protesters but otherwise defended his security forces’ response to the frequently violent demonstrations.
BOLIVIA
Bolivian President Evo Morales is also resisting calls to resign amid questions about whether his government rigged the October 20 presidential election. Bolivian security forces on Tuesday prevented opposition figure Luis Fernando Camacho from leaving the airport after he flew from the city of Santa Cruz to La Paz. Camacho intended to deliver a resignation letter to Morales and says he’ll keep flying into La Paz every day until he’s allowed to enter the city.
Meanwhile, the Organization for American States is auditing the vote count and Morales is still insisting he’ll order a runoff against challenger Carlos Mesa if the audit finds evidence of fraud. The audit should be done by the middle of this month, but Mesa has already started gaming the outcome by suggesting that the OAS might be colluding with Morales. Even a minimal understanding of the OAS’s recent history would suggest that if anything it will be looking to find a way to force Morales, an unabashed leftist, out of office.
BRAZIL
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is trying to push a “reform” package of privatization efforts and spending cuts through the Brazilian Congress as part of an overall austerity package and undoubtedly in order to reward the big business supporters who helped him win the presidency last year. In September, Bolsonaro won passage of his pension “reform” plan as his first major austerity measure, but with local elections looming it will be difficult for him to get these new measures passed before the end of the year.
VENEZUELA
The Trump administration on Tuesday blacklisted five senior figures in Venezuela’s security establishment while actually relaxing restrictions on US companies doing business in that country. The administration revised a blanket ban on US companies getting involved with the Venezuelan government to clarify that companies working with Venezuelan individuals who work in public sector jobs (at universities and hospitals, for example) can continue their work without incurring penalties.
MEXICO
Nine women and children from a Mormon community in northern Mexico were brutally murdered on Monday along the border between Mexico’s Sonora and Chihuahua states, presumably by a drug gang. All nine were US citizens, and at least one of the families targeted had prior run-ins with Mexican drug traffickers. Apparently this means WAR:
What Trump probably means is not so much that the US military is about to charge across the border to avenge these deaths, but rather that he plans to start publicly browbeating Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador over crime in Mexico, as he’s already done over migration. Repeatedly berating the president of Mexico can only help energize Trump’s base heading into next year’s election, and if he threatens to cut US trade with Mexico he can probably get AMLO to take some visible action against the northern Mexican gangs.
UNITED STATES
Finally, if you’re worried about the fact that the Trump administration is trying to destroy the Paris Climate agreement, cheer up. What the US fails to do in actually limiting carbon emissions, it will make up in…ingenuity, according to Assistant Secretary of Energy for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg. No, really:
The world should look to the United States’ ability to reduce its emissions, the Department of Energy’s Steven Winberg said at an oil conference in South Africa a day after the Trump administration formally moved to exit the Paris Agreement.
“We can solve any climate issue with technology development, one thing you see back in U.S. history is we have consistently solved challenges that were put before us,” Winberg told Reuters at the event which drew energy ministers from across Africa as well as U.S. and other international energy companies.
I’d say there’s no way anybody could be dumb enough to believe this stuff, but Winberg as far as I can tell is a big “clean coal” guy. That means he’s either a habitual liar or he’ll pretty much believe anything.