World update: November 12 2019

THESE DAYS IN HISTORY

November 11, 1918: Germany signs an armistice with the Allies ending its involvement in World War I.

November 11, 1918: In the wake of World War I, Poland reemerges as an independent nation after having been carved into oblivion by Austria, Prussia, and Russia in the 1795 Third Partition. Polish Independence Day.

November 11, 2004: PLO leader and Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat dies of still undetermined causes. Arafat’s death left the PA in the less capable hands of Mahmoud Abbas, though it’s hard to see how things could have turned out much differently in Israel-Palestine had he lived.

November 12, 1893: Afghan ruler Abdur Rahman Khan agrees to accept the boundary drawn by British Foreign Secretary for India Sir Mortimer Durand as the new border between Afghanistan and British South Asia. The Durand Line, which ran through the traditional homelands of both the Pashtun and the Baluch peoples, has for better or worse (usually worse) remained the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan to the present day.

The Durand Line (Wikimedia Commons)

November 12, 1942: The Naval Battle of Guadalcanal begins. The battle ended three days later with a decisive US victory over Imperial Japan that ensured the Japanese would be unable to provide significant support to their soldiers on Guadalcanal. It thus marks a decisive turning point in the Guadalcanal Campaign and, for some historians, marks the overall turning point in World War II’s Pacific Theater.

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

According to the Washington Post, US surveillance footage taken over northeastern Syria appears to have captured multiple war crimes committed by Turkish proxy fighters during Turkey’s invasion of that region last month. The footage is reportedly being “discussed” inside the administration, which I suppose could lead to sanctions of some kind. But aerial footage isn’t going to be especially conclusive in terms of determining that a crime has been committed, and anyway the US would never uphold international law against an ally, so I wouldn’t expect any serious repercussions.

TURKEY

The Turkish government has indeed begun repatriating foreign-born Islamic State fighters in its custody, and as it happens the first problem case involves a US citizen. Muhammed Darwis B, as he’s been identified by Turkish media, is now stranded in the no man’s land between the Turkish and Greek borders after refusing deportation to the US and asking to be sent to Greece instead. The Greek government won’t take him and Turkey won’t take him back, so he’s stuck. The Danish government, meanwhile, has received one IS fighter from Turkey and has placed him in pretrial detention, while the French government says it is preparing to receive 11 French nationals currently in Turkish custody. In what’s become an almost daily ritual, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has renewed his threat to release all of Turkey’s captured IS fighters into Greece, this time over recent European Union actions with respect to Cyprus (see below).

IRAQ

Joel Wing writes that the Iraqi government has begun disappearing activists in Baghdad in a new effort to undermine anti-government protests:

The news out of Baghdad was bad gain as another activist disappeared. Mary Mohammed was last seen four days ago. This is just the latest in mysterious detentions and assassinations that have occurred amongst the demonstrators. Sabi al-Mahdawi was abducted about a week ago. Ali Hashim was killed, and Mushtaq al-Azzawi escaped an attempt on his life. Similar tactics were used last year against demonstrators by the security forces. That lasted for months after the protests ended. That will likely occur again this year showing that the authorities seek to eliminate and intimidate activists in an attempt to silence dissent. It is another sign that Iraqi democracy is dying.

LEBANON

Lebanon’s anti-government protests took a deadly turn on Tuesday when one man may have been shot and killed at a roadblock set up by protesters south of Beirut. The Lebanese army is saying that the man was wounded. Details surrounding the shooting are still sparse, but it happened amid renewed protesting caused in part by an ill-conceived television interview by Lebanese President Michel Aoun. In that interview, Aoun appeared condescending to demonstrators, ordering them to return home lest they “strike Lebanon and [their] interests.” Aoun also poured cold water on the protesters’ demand for a new, non-political cabinet, suggesting that there are still serious disagreements about the makeup of such a body and that Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was still undecided about whether or not he wants to lead it.

Lebanon’s Federation of Syndicates of Bank Employees union is on strike and will be on strike through at least Wednesday to protest unsafe working conditions. Customers are angry and worried because banks won’t let them access their deposits—ostensibly over concerns about capital flight but possibly over concerns about insolvency—and that’s creating a dangerous working environment for bank employees, who are demanding more security before they’ll return to the job. Banks and schools across the country were closed on Tuesday due to the strike and the ongoing unrest.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

In addition to bombing the home of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s “field commander” in Gaza early Tuesday, the Israeli military also struck the home of another PIJ leader in Damascus, killing at least two people. A son of the PIJ leader was killed but as far as I can tell the Israelis missed their target. They haven’t claimed responsibility for that latter strike—Israel generally doesn’t claim attacks it carries out against other sovereign countries. The two strikes have prompted a wave of rocket fire from Gaza in retaliation and have led to the worst fighting in and around Gaza since at least May. At least ten Palestinians have been killed so far and 25 Israelis have been wounded by rocket fire.

These clashes put Hamas in the unusual position of standing between Israel and another, more militant Palestinian faction. Islamic Jihad generally acts in concert with Hamas’s military wing, but it is its own organization and does at times engage in independent attacks against Israel. The Israelis generally operate as though PIJ doesn’t exist, arguing that even if it is acting independently that Hamas, as the governing power in Gaza, still bears responsibility for its attacks. In that sense the overnight strikes against PIJ leadership are something of a shift in Israeli policy. Hamas has been trying to negotiate a sustained ceasefire with Israel that would include steps to ease the Israeli blockade of Gaza, but another full-scale war looks more likely at this point.

Which may be the point. Benjamin Netanyahu is not above using military conflict to rally voters to the flag and boost his electoral fortunes. With opposition leader Benny Gantz possibly days away from having to report to President Reuven Rivlin that he’s been unable to form a governing coalition, these moves against PIJ may have been Netanyahu’s final pitch to Gantz to put their personal differences aside and form a national unity government—or they may have been the first acts of the Netanyahu 2020 campaign.

The European Court of Justice ruled Tuesday that any imported goods manufactured in Israeli-occupied territories must be labeled as such, rather than being labeled as coming from Israel. The ruling went so far as to state that Israeli settlements in the West Bank exist “in violation of the rules of general international humanitarian law.” The Israeli government strongly opposes the decision for obvious reasons, with its foreign ministry engaging in some whataboutery on Tuesday in asking why the ECJ hasn’t issued similar rulings about other cases involving disputed occupied territories.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

A car bombing outside Afghanistan’s Ministry of the Interior in Kabul killed at least seven people on Wednesday morning. No group has yet claimed responsibility, and it’s early so that casualty count may rise.

The Afghan government is releasing three Taliban captives—including Anas Haqqani, of the Haqqani Network Haqqanis—in exchange for two hostages (one Australian, one American) the Taliban has been holding since 2016. Apart from securing the release of the hostages, Kabul seems to be hoping that this prisoner exchange (particularly the release of a Haqqani, something Afghan authorities have been loathe to do) could be the first step toward direct negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. That’s a step the Taliban has refused to take, arguing that the Afghan government is an illegitimate US puppet and that it will only deal with Kabul once the US has left the country. But with Taliban-US talks on ice there doesn’t seem to be another open avenue for negotiations.

PAKISTAN

Three Pakistani soldiers were killed Tuesday by a roadside bomb in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province’s North Waziristan region. The Pakistani Taliban is active in that area and one of its factions is likely to blame.

NEPAL

Nepali journalist Arun Budhathoki reports that the Indian government appears to be making provocative claims along its disputed border with Nepal:

After sparking a regional and worldwide controversy by changing the internal status of Kashmir, India’s new official political map is stirring criticism in Nepal, including from Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA). The updated map of India released on November 2 includes a major Nepali claim, an area known as Kalapani. Four days after the map’s release, Nepal’s MOFA released a press statement objecting to the inclusion of Kalapani in the Indian map.

The press statement stated: “The Nepal government firmly believes that the Kalapani is a part of Nepal.” India’s unilateral and illegal move to encroach upon Nepal’s Kalapani goes against the 1816 Suguali treaty between Nepal and the then East India Company.

Kalapani is a 35 square kilometer area in the hill state’s Pithoragarh district under the control of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police. The Indian state of Uttarakhand shares an 80.5-km long porous border with Nepal and a 344 km border with China.

INDONESIA

An apparent suicide bombing outside a police station in the city of Medan on Wednesday morning killed the bomber and wounded six police officers.

PHILIPPINES

Insurgents with the communist New People’s Army killed at least six Philippine soldiers and wounded 23 more on Tuesday with improvised explosives on Samar Island. Philippine soldiers killed one militant in an ensuing gun battle.

AFRICA

THE GAMBIA

The Washington Post reports on how The Gambia came to file a genocide charge against Myanmar at the International Court of Justice:

Abubacarr M. Tambadou, Gambia’s attorney general and justice minister, read a U.N. report last year that detailed how an army crackdown in Buddhist-majority Myanmar had killed thousands of Rohingya in 2017 and driven more than 700,000 into neighboring Bangladesh.

Investigators described the violence as “crimes against humanity,” and the United States called it an ethnic-cleansing campaign. Myanmar has denied all the allegations, saying it was targeting terrorists.

Tambadou, who worked for years as a lawyer at the U.N. tribunal focused on the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, visited a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh in May 2018.

Tambadou’s visit to that camp and his familiarity with the genocide in Rwanda prompted him to file the ICJ charge.

MALI

The Malian military says it’s killed “several” militants as part of a newly intensified operation against extremists in central Mali. Many of them appear to hail from countries other than Mali, though as you may have already guessed the Malians aren’t really being very generous with the details.

EUROPE

CYPRUS

The European Union agreed in principle at a meeting of foreign ministers on Monday to impose sanctions against Turkey for offshore drilling in Cypriot waters. They’re planning to decide specifically whom to sanction at a later time. Ankara has been repeatedly drilling for gas around the island, arguing that the Cypriot government cannot tap those resources until it settles its beef with the breakaway Cypriot Turks in the north of the island. Of course, the Turkish government also happens to be one of the main obstacles to settling that conflict, which is mighty coincidental. The Turks also maintain that they’re entitled to drill in those waters because they lie within Turkey’s continental shelf, an interpretation of maritime law with which nobody else seems to agree.

MOLDOVA

Moldova’s governing coalition lost a no-confidence vote on Tuesday after the ACUM alliance headed by Prime Minister Maia Sandu fell out with its Socialist partner. Sandu sought to centralize the appointment of Moldova’s prosecutor-general, a move she said was essential to her anti-corruption efforts, while the Socialists instead demanded that the appointment be made by a commission. Moldova’s parties will now have three months to organize themselves into a new governing coalition if they want to avoid a snap election.

SPAIN

Speaking of snap elections, the fallout from the one Spain held on Sunday took an unexpected turn on Tuesday, when Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party announced that it would form a coalition with the leftist anti-austerity Podemos party. Sánchez’s reluctance to work with Podemos was perhaps the key reason why he was unable to form a government after April’s election, but now that his snap election bet has paid off with fewer seats and a huge boost to the far right Vox party, I guess Sánchez has learned his lesson. Even combined, Podemos and the Socialists are still 21 seats shy of a parliamentary majority, so they’ll need a lot of help from small fringe parties on the left, including the Catalan separatist ERC party. Sánchez won’t try to bring them into the coalition but he will try to get them to abstain in an eventual confidence vote.

UNITED KINGDOM

Two new polls are out ahead of the UK’s December 12 election. A YouGov poll has the Conservatives with a 14 point lead over Labour, 42-28, while a Survation poll has the Tories ahead by only 6, 35-29.

AMERICAS

CHILE

Chilean Finance Minister Ignacio Briones is tired of all these protesters who are ruining the Chilean peso’s value and called on Tuesday for a return to “normalcy.” He didn’t really get his wish, as a national strike and accompanying demonstrations impacted business across the country and brought the peso to a record low of 800/US dollar. As often happens in these situations, the brutality of the police response to the protests, which have seen at least 23 deaths so far, is in turn fueling additional protests. The Chilean government insists that it’s already made changes to appease the demands of the protesters for economic reform and a reduction in inequality, but clearly most of the protesters are not satisfied.

BOLIVIA

Bolivia has a new president, I guess, as the former (?) deputy head of the Bolivian Senate, Jeanine Áñez, more or less declared herself president on Tuesday. She replaces Evo Morales, who resigned on Sunday along with the three people ahead of Áñez in the line of succession, under pressure from protesters, the right-wing opposition, and the Bolivian military (but whatever you do, don’t call it a coup). She does have a legal claim on the office, so if I’m sounding noncommittal here it’s because legislators from Morales’s Movement for Socialism (MAS) party boycotted the legislative session that was to accept Morales’s resignation and appoint his interim replacement, denying it the quorum needed to make those acts official. So at this point, I guess you could say she’s president if you want her to be. Morales, as reported on Monday, did leave for asylum in Mexico, but he’s talked in general terms about continuing to “fight” and even returning to Bolivia, so we’ll see.

Unrest is continuing in La Paz and other cities across Bolivia, and it may get worse as Bolivian unions are threatening a general strike as soon as Wednesday if the government doesn’t take concrete steps to calm things down. At this point the onus is on the forces that pushed Morales out of office to prove that their intent really was to preserve Bolivian democracy rather than to undertake a right-wing elite-backed coup against an economically left-wing, pro-indigenous president. Again, we’ll see.

At Common Dreams, Eoin Higgins suggests one possible international angle to Sunday’s coup:

The Sunday military coup in Bolivia has put in place a government which appears likely to reverse a decision by just-resigned President Evo Morales to cancel an agreement with a German company for developing lithium deposits in the Latin American country for batteries like those in electric cars.

…

The Morales move on Nov. 4 to cancel the December 2018 agreement with Germany's ACI Systems Alemania (ACISA) came after weeks of protests from residents of the Potosí area. The region has 50% to 70% of the world's lithium reserves in the Salar de Uyuni salt flats.

Among other clients, ACISA provides batteries to Tesla; Tesla's stock rose Monday after the weekend.

One quick and easy way to determine the true motives of the anti-Morales forces will be to see whether Áñez makes any moves with respect to Bolivian lithium during her stint as interim president. If she does, then you’ll know for sure that this whole affair wasn’t about democracy.

BRAZIL

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is reportedly about to leave his Social Liberal Party (PSL) and found a new one, Movement for Brazil, even if it costs him access to the PSL’s 390 million reais pot of public campaign funds. Bolsonaro has been engaged in a feud with PSL founder Luciano Bivar for control of the party precisely because neither wanted to leave and risk losing that chunk of cash, which would particularly impact candidates for the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. It’s unclear how many of the PSL’s elected officials, apart from his own sons, plan on leaving the party to go with Bolsonaro.

UNITED STATES

The Trump administration is planning to make US foreign aid contingent on a recipient’s protection of religious freedom, which is intended as a sop to Donald Trump’s evangelical base and probably won’t be enforced in practice. Conditioning foreign aid to religious freedom would potentially impact US relations with India, Egypt, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Pakistan, and—hey, look at that—Saudi Arabia, which made the “tier 1” (worst offender) list in the State Department’s 2019 annual report on countries violating religious freedom. The United States is not about to start punishing Saudi Arabia for its religious freedom violations. Most of the other “tier 1” countries, apart from Pakistan, aren’t close US allies, so this policy shift won’t matter in those cases.

Finally, a new AP report lays out the extent to which the Trump administration is continuing to brutalize migrant children:

This month, new government data shows the little girl is one of an unprecedented 69,550 migrant children held in U.S. government custody over the past year, enough infants, toddlers, kids and teens to overflow the typical NFL stadium. That’s more children detained away from their parents than any other country, according to United Nations researchers. And it’s happening even though the U.S. government has acknowledged that being held in detention can be traumatic for children, putting them at risk of long-term physical and emotional damage.

Some of these migrant children who were in government custody this year have already been deported. Some have reunited with family in the U.S., where they’re trying to go to school and piece their lives back together. About 4,000 are still in government custody, some in large, impersonal shelters. And more arrive every week.