World update: March 3 2020
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and more
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First, a programming note. Foreign Exchanges will be taking a brief hiatus at the end of the this week, with Thursday serving as our final newsletter before things go quiet. As I’ve mentioned at a few times, both here and on the podcast, for virtually the entire time this newsletter has been running my family and I have been living in a temporary situation. I’m very pleased to say that’s ending and we’re finally moving into a new place next week that will even have an actual workspace for me that isn’t an unused corner of the kitchen. Hence the hiatus. I’m hoping it will only be a week, but as with any move there could be complications that extend the duration. Thanks for your patience!
THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
March 2, 1962: The Burmese (yes, people still called Myanmar “Burma” back then) military, led by General Ne Win, overthrows the country’s civilian government in a coup. The military stepped in amid widespread public opposition to the government, which was accused of corruption and incompetence, and fears that the government’s weakness might cause the country to break apart. It kicked off a period of military or essentially military rule in Burma/Myanmar that ended…well, I’m sure it will end one of these days.
March 2, 2002: The US military begins Operation Anaconda in Paktia province, the first large-scale battle in the War in Afghanistan. The battle ended on March 18 with a decisive US/coalition victory, the Taliban having lost hundreds of fighters.
March 3, 1878: The Treaty of San Stefano ends the 1877-1878 Ottoman-Russian War with a decisive Russian victory. The treaty was so lopsided, and in particular the amount of territory given to Bulgaria was so large, that Britain and France stepped in and forced it to be substantially revised at the Congress of Berlin held that summer.
Bulgaria in the Treaty of San Stefano versus the much smaller Bulgaria in the Treaty of Berlin, though to be fair Eastern Rumelia did merge with Bulgaria within a few years of Berlin (Todor Bozhinov via Wikimedia Commons)
March 3, 1918: The Bolshevik government of Russia signs the Treaty of Brest Litovsk with the Central Powers, marking Russia’s formal withdrawal from World War I. In addition to quitting the war, Russia ceded its claims on Belarus, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine in Eastern Europe, all of which were expected to come under German domination, and its territories in the Caucasus, which were expected to come under Ottoman domination. Naturally all of those plans were upset when the Central Powers lost the war.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Well it was another exciting day in northwestern Syria, where Turkish forces downed another Syrian warplane—the third in three days—while at least one Turkish soldier was killed by pro-government forces on the ground. The fighting is now centered north of the town of Saraqib, which the Syrian military has fully retaken. So fully, in fact, that the Russian military has deployed military police units to the town, both to secure it and to make it clear to the Turks that if they attempt to take the town again they’ll be risking a direct conflict with Russia. Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are due to meet later this week to discuss finding a face-saving way out of this conflict for at least one of them, but what that might be is difficult to predict. A cessation of the government offensive would leave Damascus in control of the M4 and M5 highways while allowing it to look like Erdoğan’s tough manly manliness forced the Syrians to back down. But are the Syrians actually willing to accept that?
Turkey’s appeals for help from its Western allies, backed up by its decision to send thousands of Syrian refugees to the Greek border, have produced some lukewarm shows of support. The strongest has come from the United States, which wants Turkey and Russia to remain at odds to undermine the relationship Putin and Erdoğan have developed, but it only amounts to a promise to keep the Turks supplied with ammunition. That’s not enough to actually affect the outcome but it is just enough to keep everybody fighting longer, which is what Washington really wants here. The French government has accused Russia and Syria of committing war crimes, which even the French government knows is meaningless, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly wants to establish “safety zones” in northern Syria. What are “safety zones” and who would be responsible for maintaining them? “I don’t know” and “not Germany” are probably the answers.
TURKEY
European leaders are reportedly seething over Erdoğan’s refugee move, characterizing it as an attempt to “blackmail” the European Union. One could point out here that Erdoğan wouldn’t be able to use migrants as leverage if Europe weren’t so deeply xenophobic, but it’s probably no use dwelling on that point. The upshot is that even though the Europeans know they’re being blackmailed, they’re prepared to give in to their blackmailer. Nobody’s willing to go to war with Russia on Turkey’s behalf, true, but they are apparently willing to pay Erdoğan more money if he’ll go back to keeping those migrants in Turkey. They’re already supposed to be paying Turkey under a deal reached in 2016, but Erdoğan has complained that the money isn’t enough and is generally slow to arrive. Meanwhile, children are dying while trying to get into Greece, if anybody cares about such things.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Benjamin Netanyahu has declared victory in Israel’s parliamentary election even though it’s not clear he’s actually won. With most of the votes counted, Netanyahu and his coalition have “won” in the sense that they’ve got more seats than opposition leader Benny Gantz can muster. But in the sense of being able to form a government, Netanyahu may have fallen short for the third straight election. The prime minister’s Likud Party and its usual coalition partners look like they’re in control of 59 seats, two shy of a majority. This means he’ll need to appeal either to Gantz and his Blue and White Party, with its 32 seats, or to Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party, with its seven seats, to join his coalition. But Gantz refuses to work with Netanyahu and Liberman refuses to work with the ultra-religious parties that are a large chunk of Netanyahu’s coalition.
The Arab Joint List finished in third place with 15 seats, exceeding expectations. The Joint List parlayed both high turnout among Arab voters and the support of Jewish leftists who don’t really have a home anymore as Israel’s left and center-left parties have all either collapsed or shifted right. I mention this in passing, but the Joint List is considered toxic in Israel’s Islamophobic political environment so it won’t have any role to play in forming a government.
What happens now is anybody’s guess. If there were an obvious path out of this conundrum Israeli wouldn’t be on its third election in less than a year. Liberman could finally conceded and join Netanyahu’s coalition even though it means admitting he’s lost his many battles against the religious parties. Gantz could reconsider and relent on forming a “grand coalition,” though in contrast to the relatively equal stature he and Netanyahu had after September’s election, this time around Netanyahu would be indisputably in charge. There’s a possibility that Gantz, having failed three times now to unseat Netanyahu, could be ousted as party leader or even that Blue and White could break apart. Netanyahu could coax a couple of members of either Blue and White or Yisrael Beiteinu to cross parties and support his coalition, though that may be easier said than done. Or everybody could get to do this again in a few months. In the meantime, the corruption case against Netanyahu will proceed, since he doesn’t have the votes to give himself legal immunity. Not yet, at least.
IRAN
The International Atomic Energy Agency issued two reports on the state of Iran’s nuclear program on Tuesday, neither of them good. Iran is now stockpiling 1021 kilograms of low enriched uranium, which is over three times the 300 kilogram limit laid out in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and close to the roughly 1050 kilograms of LEU Iran would need to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear weapon. To be clear, there’s no indication Iran is doing that and of course the Iranians are still bound by their commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Of potentially greater concern is the IAEA’s claim that Iran has interfered with its inspections process. The agency claims that the Iranians have refused to answer IAEA questions about past nuclear-related work at three sites and has prevented the agency from inspecting two of them. Iran has heretofore complied with IAEA inspectors and Iranian officials have promised to continue doing so even as they’ve pulled back from other parts of the JCPOA. It’s unclear why they haven’t complied in these cases but it is possible that new IAEA boss Rafael Grossi—who took office in December with some veiled promises to Get Tougher on Iran than his predecessor, Yukiya Amano, had been—is escalating these disputes now in order to prove his mettle to the US.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
Donald Trump spoke by phone with deputy Taliban leader Mullah Baradar Akhund on Tuesday. So…that’s nice. I bet they had a real good talk, and Trump even said that “the relationship is very good that I have with the Mullah.” Cool! In the meantime the Taliban and Afghan security forces fought what the BBC termed as “dozens” of engagements across the country in which at least eight Taliban fighters, eight Afghan security personnel, and six civilians were killed. Most of those engagements seem to have been due to Taliban attacks, which is their statement that last week’s “reduction in violence” agreement is most definitely over and also coincides with their annual Spring escalation in violence. It’s early for the Taliban’s “Spring offensive” to begin, but what with climate change and all it’s probably not that early.
The Taliban are also making a statement about the prisoner release it says was included in the agreement it signed over the weekend with the Trump administration. The Afghan government has refused to release the 5000 Taliban prisoners that may have been promised under the deal. I say “may have promised” because apparently it’s not actually clear what was in the deal:
Sounds like a recipe for a lot of fun times and happy people! No, wait, I mean it sounds like a recipe for disaster. Well, either way.
MALAYSIA
The opening of the Malaysian parliament’s next session has been postponed from next Monday to May 18 at the behest of new Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The delay may be intended to give Muhyiddin time to consolidate his position in the legislature. Former PM Mahathir Mohamad continues to insist that he has majority support in the parliament and has been demanding a quick vote to deny Muhyiddin the opportunity to convince MPs to support him.
CHINA
BNO News now has the COVID-19 outbreak at 93,083 confirmed infections with 3203 deaths.
NORTH KOREA
Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has downplayed North Korea’s Monday morning weapons test, telling state media that there was no intention to “threaten” anybody. It’s unclear why Pyongyang decided to resume weapons testing this week. It could just be a coincidence, but it might also have been intended to distract from a COVID-19 outbreak within North Korea. The North Korean government isn’t talking (it rarely does) but unconfirmed reports are rampant that the virus is spreading there and given how many North Koreans work in China it’s almost inconceivable that there hasn’t been an outbreak in North Korea. If there has been an outbreak then it’s likely going to be very serious, because North Korea’s sanctions-impaired health system is in no shape to handle an epidemic.
AFRICA
LIBYA
The Libyan government has once again shut down Tripoli’s Mitiga airport and shifted all flights to Misrata’s airport due to fighting. Khalifa Haftar’s “Libyan National Army” has been shelling the facility increasingly over the past several days. Meanwhile, the LNA’s civilian apparatus in Tobruk is planning to open an embassy in Damascus. Haftar and the Syrian government share a common enemy now in Turkey, so this will mean they can commiserate and maybe that Haftar can appeal via Syria for additional Russian support.
GUINEA-BISSAU
Guinea-Bissau’s political crisis, which clarified a bit on Monday when one of the country’s presidents, Cipriano Cassamá, resigned, has taken an ominous new turn with reports that the army has effectively occupied the country’s Supreme Court building. It would appear that the military has thrown its support behind Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who won December’s presidential runoff amid some controversy. Runner-up Domingos Simões Pereira has alleged fraud and has a case pending before the court that could theoretically see Embaló (who was inaugurated on Saturday) removed from office, hence the military’s new message to the court. There was already speculation that the threats Cassamá cited in his resignation were coming from the armed forces.
TOGO
Togo’s Constitutional Court on Tuesday confirmed President Faure Gnassingbé’s easy victory in last month’s presidential election. Official results gave Gnassingbé 71 percent of the vote, which means barring the unforeseen he’ll serve a fourth five year term. Under a new electoral law passed last year, Gnassingbé could legally remain in office for one more term beyond this (until 2030, in other words), by which point he’ll undoubtedly have figured out some mechanism that allows him to stick around even longer.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny says Moscow has frozen and emptied out his bank accounts and those of close family members. The Kremlin has offered no comment on his claims.
In other news, among the constitutional changes being bandied about to keep Putin in power past the end of his term in 2024, the Russian leader wants to enshrine marriage as between a man and a woman in Russia’s basic law. He’s also pushing for “a proclamation of Russians' faith in God and a ban on giving away any Russian territory.”
UKRAINE
Oleksiy Honcharuk resigned as Ukrainian prime minister on Tuesday as part of an overhaul of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s cabinet. Several other ministers are expected to depart as well. Zelenskiy has already reportedly promoted Honcharuk’s former deputy, Denys Shmygal, to the PM post. Zelenskiy’s administration is suffering from a failure to launch, as it’s failed to do much either to end the war in Donbas or to tackle Kyiv’s corruption problem, and the neophyte president’s approval ratings appear to have taken a tumble as a result. Honcharuk and Zelenskiy also don’t seem to get along with one another personally, at least not since audio surfaced last month of the former PM criticizing the president.
SLOVENIA
The Slovenian parliament confirmed Janez Janša to his third stint as prime minister on Tuesday. Janša stepped in with a new majority coalition after former prime minister Marjan Šarec resigned in January in an attempt to force a snap election.
AMERICAS
CHILE
Violent protests broke out across Chile on Monday evening. Nearly 300 people were arrested nationwide and dozens of Chilean police officers were reportedly injured. It’s unclear why the violence resumed but it could simply be that many protesters took end-of-summer vacations and are now back at it.
VENEZUELA
A group of Nicolás Maduro loyalists reportedly opened fire on an opposition protest led by would-be president Juan Guaidó in the city of Barquisimeto on Saturday. Several people were either wounded by gunfire or injured in the panic that ensued amid the shooting but there don’t seem to have been any fatalities. The sourcing on this story seems a bit sketchy but there are photos of what appear to be masked men confronting the demonstration, one of whom is brandishing a firearm. It’s rare that Guaidó himself comes under direct threat, as he’s more or less under international protection at this point and his movement has fizzled out so badly that Maduro would lose more than he gained by even arresting him, let alone having him attacked.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
The Dominican government canceled municipal elections last month, ostensibly due to malfunctioning voting machines, and that appears to have opened the floodgates on some pent up frustration among the Dominican people:
The cause of the malfunctioning voting system, which was recently purchased for a total of $19 million, is not immediately clear. The Organization of American States is investigating the issue at the Dominican government’s request, and no evidence has emerged to suggest the machines were tampered with.
Nonetheless, many Dominicans were outraged and have organized protests in recent weeks against the mishandled elections. Thousands of people have taken to the streets of the capital, Santo Domingo, as well as other cities around the country to demand the immediate resignation of the electoral board’s members and a guarantee that future elections will be free, fair and transparent. The largely peaceful demonstrations have also spread to Dominican diaspora communities in cities like Philadelphia, New York, London, Madrid and Toronto. In addition to the rescheduled municipal vote, protesters are worried about potential irregularities in the upcoming presidential election in May.
On first glance, the demonstrations may seem like an overreaction. Technical problems often pop up in elections around the world without sparking such a massive and prolonged outcry. However, many Dominicans feel the month-long delay is intended to benefit candidates affiliated with the ruling Dominican Liberation Party, or PLD, which has dominated Dominican politics since 2004, maintaining majorities in both houses of Congress and winning the past four presidential elections. PLD candidates have more access to financing and enjoy greater visibility than their opponents. More fundamentally, though, the protests are rooted in widespread perceptions of extensive corruption and a history of electoral manipulation.
The OAS’s involvement here is a red flag after the role it played in Bolivia, as is the fact that the presidential candidate for the opposition Modern Revolutionary Party, Luis Abinder, is apparently being advised by Rudy Giuliani. The presidential election is happening in May and given this level of public discontent it could very well get messy.
UNITED STATES
Finally, building off of a question in this week’s Ask Derek Anything thread, University College London professor Ilan Kelman argues that the coronavirus pandemic (I know it’s not technically a pandemic yet but just go with it) is probably not going to have a silver lining in terms of international diplomacy:
As COVID-19 sweeps the world, the coronavirus disease has substantially impacted two U.S.-sanctioned countries. Iran is trying to curtail its outbreak, with dozens of deaths at minimum and the infected including the vice president and the deputy health minister, who leads the country’s taskforce against the coronavirus. Meanwhile, North Korea has sealed its borders, including with China, effectively isolating the country completely from the movement of people and goods.
This prompts the question of whether there might be a diplomatic opportunity in this catastrophic epidemic. Could the worldwide concern and attention lead to political progress with Iran and North Korea? Does this so-called disaster diplomacy open up channels for aid and communication, precipitating further rapprochement? Numerous previous examples tell us the answer is no. Indeed, different forms of disaster diplomacy and health diplomacy have not been shown to create new, lasting peace initiatives.