World update: March 28-29 2020
Stories from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Venezuela
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
March 27, 1918: The National Council of the Moldavian Democratic Republic proclaims Bessarabia’s union with Romania. I realize that’s a lot to process, but the summary is that the National Council of Bessarabia declared independence and the formation of the Moldavian Democratic Republic after the 1917 Russian Revolution. It then declared a merger with Romania in March 1918, though it didn’t become official until December. The newly augmented Romania survived that way until 1940, when under the terms of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact the Soviet Union rolled into Bessarabia while Romania’s German ally did nothing. Bessarabia is today mostly in Moldova and partly in Ukraine, but not in Romania.
March 28, 845: A Viking raiding party possibly under the command of the maybe real-maybe mythical hero Ragnar Lodbrok sacks Paris. The Vikings were bought off by Frankish King Charles the Bald to leave the city, but they didn’t come cheap. Charles had to give them 7000 French pounds of gold and silver, which works out to over 2550 kilograms. If you assume that the “Ragnar” mentioned in Frankish sources about the sack is in fact Ragnar Lodbrok, this is one of the strongest historical attestations for a figure who isn’t all that well attested, but there’s no historical consensus around that assumption.
An unknown 19th century artist’s depiction (anachronistic, given that Paris’s walls didn’t feature big ramparts like that in 845) of the sacking (Wikimedia Commons)
March 28, 1939: Francisco Franco’s Nationalist forces successfully capture Madrid after a nearly two and a half year siege. Franco’s initial assault on the city began in November 1936 and was beaten back by its Republican defenders, so he settled in for a long siege and steady bombardment that eventually wore the defenders down. Franco entered the city and declared victory just days later, on April 1, bringing an end to the Spanish Civil War.
March 29, 1430: The Siege of Thessaloniki ends with the Ottoman conquest of the Byzantine-turned-Venetian city.
March 29, 1857: An Indian sepoy named Mangal Pandey engages in an act of insurrection against East India Company officers at his military base outside of Kolkata. He was arrested and later hanged, as was his immediate superior for refusing to arrest him. Pandey’s case highlighted the growing dissatisfaction many sepoys were feeling toward the EIC, and his example (including what many felt was a disproportionate punishment) helped spark the Sepoy Mutiny, also known as the Indian Rebellion of 1857. That insurrection failed, but it also prompted the British government to take direct control of India, stripping it from the EIC.
COVID-19
Based on where we were when I posted Friday’s update, the world has seen an increase of well over 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases over the weekend. Worldometer’s tracker puts us at 721,956 confirmed cases (+58,829 over the past day), 536,678 of which are active, with 33,966 fatalities (+3105). BNO News has the tally at 727,438 cases with 34,104 reported fatalities.
With the number of cases still rising, a new concern is beginning to take shape, which is whether or not it’s possible to become re-infected by the coronavirus once you’ve already had it and recovered. Apparently some 10 percent of COVID-19 patients in China recover and then show symptoms of a second infection, which is baffling if that’s really what’s happening. It’s more likely that these patients are still harboring a reservoir of the virus that’s somehow escaping detection, so they were never fully recovered in the first place. But doctors don’t have enough information to say what’s happening for sure.
Another concern, according to the United Nations, is COVID-19 related “misinformation.” The UN is planning to unveil a “COVID-19 Communications for Solidarity Initiative,” to provide information about the pandemic and combat what it says is the “stigma, hate speech, and hate crimes” that the coronavirus has provoked. Something tells me they’ll be fighting an uphill battle.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
9 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (+4 from yesterday), 1 reported fatality (+1)
The Syrian government reported that country’s first COVID-19 fatality on Sunday amid fears that the outbreak within Syria is much worse than the country’s medical system has acknowledged (or can acknowledge, given its serious limitations on testing). The Syrian military has also reportedly ended both conscription and the calling up of reserves, despite a perpetual shortage of manpower, and is limiting interactions with foreign militia fighters in an effort to limit the virus’s spread within its ranks.
There is apparently a major riot in progress at a Syrian Democratic Forces-run prison in Hasaka, amid which at least 12 Islamic State fighters have managed to escape from the facility. Militants were on Sunday reportedly able to take control of the ground floor of the prison, though unconfirmed reports say that many have been killed in clashes with SDF forces. US aircraft are apparently buzzing the scene, likely for intel gathering as there are no reports of any airstrikes. Like every other SDF detention facility, Hasaka is overcrowded and the conditions there are brutal according to human rights organizations. It’s unclear what caused this uprising or how it was able to achieve so much initial success.
YEMEN
No confirmed cases
USAID began cutting back on humanitarian aid to Yemen on Friday, fulfilling a threat to stop sending aid to Houthi-controlled parts of the country over accusations that the rebels are taxing the aid and preventing it from getting to the people who need it. There are obviously serious concerns about drawing down humanitarian aid in a situation like this, and while the agency says its cuts don’t affect basic programs, like clean water and hygiene, that are helpful in containing the pandemic, they do affect support for health care, which also seems pretty relevant under the current circumstances. Yemen has no confirmed cases of COVID-19 but it would be a minor miracle if the virus hasn’t already reached the country. And given how bereft it was of basic services before it became a war zone, there’s no reason to expect Yemen’s health system to be able to detect the spread of the pandemic in a timely fashion and no reason to expect that containment measures will be successful.
IRAQ
547 confirmed cases (+41), 42 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Pilgrims returning to Iraq from visiting religious sites in Syria are testing positive for COVID-19 once they’ve returned to Iraq. This suggests that Syria’s outbreak is worse than the official figures indicate, though it’s possible these people were infected after reentering Iraq.
The US-led coalition in Iraq withdrew from a third Iraqi military base on Sunday, the K1 airbase in Kirkuk province, and it’s planning to withdraw from two more bases in northern and western Iraq “in the coming days.” The US military says it’s standing down because Iraqi security forces are able to handle the counter-Islamic State mission on their own, but in reality these redeployments are in response to a series of attacks on foreign personnel, and threats of attacks, by Iranian-supported militias. The Trump administration still doesn’t seem to know how it should respond, or if it should respond, given that there’s no appetite for a serious escalation in Iraq but small retaliatory strikes have clearly not deterred the militias.
The administration has reportedly ordered US forces in Iraq to plan for a heavy retaliation against Kataib Hezbollah, which has probably been behind most of the attacks against US personnel. But the US commander in Iraq, Kenneth White, has pushed back, as have some other senior figures at the Pentagon. They’re warning that such an operation might force the Iraqi government to expel US forces even as the operation itself would likely require the US to commit additional forces to Iraq to carry it out. The Trump administration seems to be divided between a State Department that is essentially looking to provoke a war with Iran and a Defense Department that has adopted a much more cautious approach. If that seems like an up is down scenario then it might help to substitute “Mike Pompeo” for “State Department” because it’s really Pompeo who’s been pushing for a military confrontation.
SAUDI ARABIA
1299 confirmed cases (+96), 8 reported fatalities (+4)
The Saudi military says its air defenses responded to two missiles fired into the kingdom by Yemen’s Houthi rebels late Saturday, destroying both. One of the missiles was fired at the southern city of Jizan while the other targeted the Saudi capital, Riyadh. According to Saudi officials there were only slight injuries due to falling missile debris. The Houthis claim they fired multiple missiles and drones at several targets in the kingdom, so it’s unclear whether the Saudis are downplaying the attack or the Houthis are exaggerating it. Both warring sides in Yemen have recently expressed an interest in establishing a ceasefire in order to focus on COVID-19 prevention, but they’re going to actually have to cease firing for that to happen.
IRAN
38,309 confirmed cases (+2901), 2640 reported fatalities (+123)
They won’t show up in the list of those killed by COVID-19, but the AP says that some 480 people in Iran have died and 2850 have been sickened from ingesting bootleg alcohol because they heard on social media that drinking booze could cure the infection. Black market alcohol sellers in Iran often sell methanol rather than ethanol, hence the disastrous effects. Let this serve as a warning that no matter what your favorite social media celebrity might say, you should seek qualified medical advice before attempting any COVID-19 remedy.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
120 confirmed cases (+10), 4 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The prospect of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government got considerably dimmer on Saturday when the Taliban rejected the 21 member committee Kabul had formed to handle the prospective talks. The Taliban didn’t really explain its reasoning, so far as I can tell, offering only a suggestion that the committee did not, in their estimation, “represent all sides.” This is either a somewhat trollish reference to the political struggles between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and “Chief Executive” Abdullah Abdullah, who are disputing the results of last year’s presidential election, or it might be a bizarre suggestion that the Afghan committee itself needs to include Taliban or Taliban-sympathetic representation, or it could be something else entirely. It could also mean nothing at all, as there’s no particularly reason to expect the Taliban to take negotiations with Kabul seriously anyway—though you would think they’d want to fake it until the US has withdrawn at least some of its forces.
NORTH KOREA
No confirmed cases
The North Korean military test-fired two projectiles off of the country’s east coast on Sunday. The projectiles appear to have been short-range ballistic missiles though it can be hard to distinguish those from rockets or other artillery. The North Koreans have fired more missiles this month than they’ve ever fired in a single month, though it should be noted they’ve all been of the short-range variety that the Trump administration has already said, in its estimation, do not violate Pyongyang’s missile test moratorium. They may still be leaving the door open to diplomacy.
AFRICA
NIGERIA
111 confirmed cases (+14), 1 reported fatality (unchanged)
Nigerian officials announced a two week lockdown beginning Monday for Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos, and its capital, Abuja, in an effort to contain COVID-19. Residents will still be allowed to leave home for basic needs. Nigeria’s confirmed outbreak remains small but as in many other countries a dearth of test kits means the official figures likely don’t reflect the full extent of the virus’s spread.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
1534 confirmed cases (+270), 8 reported fatalities (+4)
The city of Moscow is imposing a tighter lockdown effective Monday that will restrict residents to their homes except for work, obtaining food or medical care, and walking their dogs. The number of new infections in Russia is starting to increase at a troubling pace, and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has suggested that the outbreak in his city is worse than official statistics are capturing.
ITALY
97,689 confirmed cases (+5217), 10,779 reported fatalities (+756)
Italy surpassed 10,000 COVID-19 fatalities over the weekend and its government is almost certainly about to announce an extension of its lockdown period, which is currently slated to end on April 3.
FRANCE
40,174 confirmed cases (+2599), 2606 reported fatalities (+292)
In case you’ve missed it, the European Union is in the midst of thoroughly discrediting itself in response to the pandemic, as its member states have closed their national borders and are competing with one another for medical supplies rather than distributing them equitably throughout the bloc. The EU’s response to this crisis has in many ways validated the harshest of its critics on both the left and the right, though it’s the right that’s best able to take advantage of the EU’s failures. French Minister for European Affairs Amélie de Montchalin suggested as much on Sunday, telling a French radio station that “if Europe is just a single market when times are good, then it has no sense.” She was responding to the EU’s failure to adopt a common stimulus package in a meeting on Thursday. France supported a measure to issue Europe-wide bonds to finance stimulus efforts, along with hard-hit Italy, Portugal, and Spain. But the idea was opposed by—who else—Germany, which as the EU’s wealthiest nation is always willing to do nothing while its poorer brethren struggle.
IRELAND
2615 confirmed cases (+200), 46 reported fatalities (+10)
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has been getting top marks from Irish citizens for his handling of the pandemic—so much so that he might want to force a new election rather than play junior partner in a new government. Support for Varadkar’s Fine Gael party is up to 34 percent in a new survey, quite a climb from a mere 21 percent in February’s general election. Sinn Féin has seen its support climb to around 28 percent from 24.5 percent in February, while Fianna Fáil has slid to 18 percent from around 22 percent. Varadkar has been negotiating with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin about either joining a Fianna Fáil-led coalition or supporting a Fianna Fáil-led minority government, and obviously this is not an appropriate time to be playing politics (and Varadkar could take a hit if people begin to believe that’s what he’s doing). But the temptation to take advantage of this new popularity has to be there.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
4256 confirmed cases (+352), 136 reported fatalities (+22)
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has reportedly threatened to sack his health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, over his government’s dangerous mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. No, wait, I’m sorry, he’s threatened to can Mandetta if Mandetta criticizes him for being a dolt. My mistake. The health minister apparently told Bolsonaro during a pandemic crisis summit on Saturday that he was going to speak out if Bolsonaro doesn’t stop demeaning the severity of the pandemic, for example by ignoring warnings to stay indoors to try to contain its spread or by accusing Brazilian governors of lying about the number of fatalities to, I don’t know, make him look bad I guess. Bolsonaro, focused on what really matters—his own public image—then threatened to fire Mandetta.
VENEZUELA
119 confirmed cases (unchanged), 3 reported fatalities (+1)
In an apparent concession to US sanctions, Russian oil firm Rosneft is cutting ties with Venezuela:
The Russian state-controlled oil firm Rosneft said Saturday it was ceasing operations in Venezuela and selling all of its assets in the country, signaling a shift in Kremlin strategy that could further rattle Venezuela’s crumbling economy.
Rosneft had emerged as the biggest economic ally of Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, accounting for up to two-thirds of the country’s oil trade and a significant share of crude production. The lifeline provided by Rosneft has allowed Mr. Maduro to maintain a flow of hard currency and supply the country with gasoline.
The United States imposed sanctions this year on two Rosneft oil trading subsidiaries for helping Mr. Maduro. The sanctions, which have hurt the company’s business elsewhere in the world, were cited by a Rosneft spokesman Saturday in describing the sale.
Rosneft sold its Venezuelan assets to what the NYT calls “an unnamed company that it described as wholly owned by the Russian government.” Since Rosneft is partially owned by the Russian government, this could be just a paper move to bring those Venezuelan operations under an entity that’s less vulnerable to US sanctions. But even so, Maduro may miss having a connection to a giant corporation like Rosneft, because this new, smaller entity might not be able to support the Venezuelan economy the way Rosneft could.
UNITED STATES
142,057 confirmed cases (+18,469), 2484 reported fatalities (+263)
Finally, Andrew Bacevich argues that COVID-19 should force the United States to reckon with the massive amount of money it spends propping up a national security apparatus that can’t secure the nation from what really threatens it:
Presidents now routinely request and Congress routinely appropriates more than a trillion dollars annually to satisfy the national security state’s supposed needs. Even so, Americans today do not feel safe and, to a degree without precedent, they are being denied the exercise of basic everyday freedoms. Judged by this standard, the apparatus created to keep them safe and free has failed. In the face of a pandemic, nature’s version of an act of true terror, that failure, the consequences of which Americans will suffer through for months to come, should be seen as definitive.
But wait, some will object: Don’t we find ourselves in uncharted waters? Is this really the moment to rush to judgment? In fact, judgment is long overdue.
While the menace posed by the coronavirus may differ in scope, it does not differ substantively from the myriad other perils that Americans have endured since the national security state wandered off on its quixotic quest to pacify Afghanistan and Iraq and purge the planet of terrorists. Since 9/11, a partial roster of those perils would include: Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Sandy (2012), Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria (2017), and massive wildfires that have devastated vast stretches of the West Coast on virtually an annual basis. The cumulative cost of such events exceeds a half-trillion dollars. Together, they have taken the lives of several thousand more people than were lost in the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.