World update: June 6-7 2020
Stories from Jordan, Thailand, and Libya
Apologies if this doesn’t affect you but I think it’s time for another of my periodic reminders regarding student subscription donations. As always, thanks to those who have donated subscriptions or contributed to the subscription fund at PayPal. And if you’re a student who would like to be put on the waiting list for one of those subscriptions, please let me know via your .edu or equivalent email address. How it works is this: when I receive a request to be put on the waiting list I give that person a 30 day complimentary subscription in the hopes that I’ll be able to accommodate them with a full year’s subscription before that period runs out. This is unfortunately not always the case, and especially under the current circumstances I’ve been extending those 30 periods when they run out. I know that a few have run out recently, and here’s the reason for this reminder: I can’t easily track whose subscriptions expire, so if yours has expired and you’d like me to renew it, you need to email me to let me know.
Thanks for indulging that, and back to regular programming.
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
June 5, 1963: In what’s become known as the 15 Khordad Movement, protests and riots break out in cities across Iran after the arrest of a previously little-known Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini over his criticisms of the Iranian government.
June 5, 1967: The Six Day War begins.
June 6, 1982: The Israeli military invades Lebanon, beginning a new phase in the Lebanese Civil War that’s also known as the Lebanon War.
June 6, 1944: The Allied invasion of France begins with the “D-Day” amphibious landings in Normandy, the largest amphibious military operation in history. Despite heavy losses, the Allies were able to establish five beachheads and by mid-June (though it took longer than planned) they secured a small but crucial foothold in northern France. From there they began the final phase of World War II on its Western Front.
US soldiers approaching Omaha Beach on June 6, 1944 (Wikimedia Commons)
June 7, 1494: In the Treaty of Tordesillas, Spain and Portugal agree to divide the world, or at least any “newly discovered” parts of it, along a north-south meridian that runs through the eastern half of modern Brazil. The negotiations abrogated a decree previously issued by Pope Alexander VI that threatened both Portugal’s control of the around-Africa sea route to India and any claims it had on India itself. The agreement, which was mostly undefinable and therefore unenforceable but did the job in terms of avoiding a Spanish-Portuguese conflict, left most of the recently-“discovered” Americas in Spanish hands save what eventually became Brazil. It was duly ignored by later expansionist European powers, in particular England, which as a Protestant kingdom saw no reason to abide by a treaty negotiated by two Catholic kingdoms and ratified by Pope Julius II.
June 7, 1942: After a four day battle and thanks in large part to having decrypted Japan’s pre-battle communications, the US Pacific Fleet defeats a larger Japanese naval force in the Battle of Midway, around the Midway Atoll west of Hawaii. One of a handful of naval battles in the running for most decisive in history, Midway was the first major US victory in World War II’s Pacific Theater and permanently degraded the Japanese fleet due to its loss of four large aircraft carriers and almost 250 planes. It didn’t entirely flip the balance of power in the Pacific, but it did give the US Navy an opening to go on the offensive following the Pearl Harbor attack in December.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for June 7:
7,082,212 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (+113,090 since yesterday)
405,081 reported fatalities (+3382 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
141 confirmed coronavirus cases (+16)
6 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Probable Israeli airstrikes killed at least 12 Iranian-aligned militia fighters in Syria’s Deir Ezzor province late Saturday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Israeli government, as usual, has had no comment, but it’s conducted strikes like this previously.
IRAQ
12,366 confirmed cases (+1268)
346 reported fatalities (+28)
The Iraqi parliament on Saturday finally approved the last seven members of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s cabinet, confirming his ministers of agriculture, culture, foreign affairs, justice, migration and displacement, oil, and trade. Those cabinet posts had been left empty as Baghdad’s various political factions worked on finding consensus choices to fill them. To be honest, based on recent Iraqi history it’s remarkable it only took a month to complete that process.
LEBANON
1331 confirmed cases (+11)
30 reported fatalities (+1)
“Dozens” of people were reportedly injured overnight as anti-government protests in Beirut and elsewhere across Lebanon degenerated into violence. Lebanon’s anti-government protests have frequently turned violent, with clashes between protesters and security forces. But this time the violence was less protester vs. police than protester vs. protester, with supporters of various Sunni and Shiʿa factions in particular clashing after video surfaced online of Hezbollah and Amal backers chanting insults against the Prophet Muhammad’s wife, Aisha. Leaders of the two Shiʿa parties condemned the insults on Sunday in an effort to deescalate the situation, as Sunni leaders also called for an end to the violence.
JORDAN
808 confirmed cases (+13)
9 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Arab Center’s Joe Macaron looks at what’s at stake for Jordan if the Israeli government moves forward with its West Bank annexation plan:
When it comes to Israel’s latest annexation plans, the most consequential issue for Amman is how this move will impact Palestinians living in Jordan who were Jordanian citizens until 1988, when the kingdom revoked their citizenship. This was after Jordan severed administrative ties with the West Bank and recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The Jordan Valley includes the lower course of the Jordan River, from the Sea of Galilee in the north to the Dead Sea in the south. Under the Oslo II Accord, the Jordan Valley falls under Area C, which is directly administrated by Israel, hence the annexation would put a stamp on the status quo.
It is not the first time Israel experiments with a plan to partition the West Bank. The most significant shift at present is that Tel Aviv is now singlehandedly making annexation plans with absolute support from Washington and what many see as complicit Arab silence. In 1967, former Israeli Minister Yigal Allon came up with a regional plan, which included partitioning the West Bank between Israel and Jordan. The Allon Plan aimed to annex most of the Jordan Valley, from the river to the eastern slopes of the West Bank, while the remaining parts would have been either a Palestinian autonomous territory or come under Jordanian control. King Hussein rejected this plan, however. The current Netanyahu approach echoes the Allon Plan, but the Israeli debate about the Palestinian or Jordanian option to control the Palestinian portion of the West Bank has now completely dissipated and has been replaced by the Israeli option.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
17,863 confirmed cases (+111) in Israel, 472 confirmed cases (+8) in Palestine
298 reported fatalities (+3) in Israel, 3 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Palestine
Al Jazeera reports on Saturday’s protest against the annexation in Tel Aviv:
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
20,342 confirmed cases (+791)
357 reported fatalities (+30)
At least 11 Afghan security forces were killed Saturday by a roadside bomb in Badakhshan province, while at least three more were killed when insurgents attacked a police checkpoint in a district of Kabul. Afghan officials are blaming the Taliban for both attacks, though there’s been no claim of responsibility as yet.
INDIA
257,486 confirmed cases (+10,864)
7207 reported fatalities (+261)
Indian and Chinese officials agreed Saturday to stand down from recent clashes along their heavily disputed and poorly delineated Central Asian border, and to try to use “diplomatic and military channels” to resolve further disputes before they turn violent. Fighting between Indian and Chinese soldiers along the nebulous border last month fortunately didn’t escalate beyond fisticuffs, but it raised considerably fear over the nature of the India-China relationship, seeing as how previous border agreements between the two countries were reached decades ago when China was not nearly as powerful as it is now (and, for that matter, before India was a declared nuclear state). There have been troubling signs recently that both countries are moving to boost their military presence near the border region.
THAILAND
3112 confirmed cases (+8)
58 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Thailand analyst Jason Johnson says that southern Thai separatists are hoping that as the country’s COVID-19 outbreak subsides, the opposition to its still mostly military government will gain momentum:
The COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be a period of relative calm in Thailand’s turbulent far south, as violence between Thai security forces and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the main insurgent group operating in the region’s provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, and four districts of Songkhla, has come to a near standstill.
But with the country returning to normalcy and fears of the virus subsiding, security officials believe there is potential for BRN to launch attacks in the ethno-religious minority region, where over 7,000 people have been killed since 2004. Moreover, some believe it is possible that a national-level opposition movement to the conservative regime of General Prayut Chan-o-cha could re-emerge after months of dormancy during the COVID-19 crisis. Such a movement could not only challenge the general’s rule but also place the country on a trajectory that could result in a more conciliatory position toward the region’s ethnic Malay majority.
AFRICA
LIBYA
256 confirmed cases (unchanged)
5 reported fatalities (unchanged)
In a somewhat bizarre and kind of humorous scene in Cairo on Saturday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi publicly proposed a new peace initiative for Libya while his visiting client, “Libyan National Army” commander Khalifa Haftar, stood there and accepted it. Sisi’s plan involves reinvigorated peace talks and the election of an interim “leadership council” followed by a disarmament plan that would disband militias and remove foreign fighters from the country. His initiative seemed intended to undercut Haftar, who has understandably become a divisive figure in Libya given his obvious pretensions at dictatorship, while elevating his other guest, the head of eastern Libya’s Haftar-subservient civilian government Aguila Saleh.
The intended audience for Sisi’s pitch, Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord, seems to have already rejected the plan, mostly because at the moment its Turkey-supported forces are successfully driving the LNA out of western Libya and seem poised to invade Haftar’s eastern power base. They’re currently advancing on the coastal city of Sirte and central Libya’s Jufra airbase, two more critical LNA possessions. That’s after forcing the LNA out of Tripoli earlier in the week and capturing its main base in eastern Libya, the town of Tarhouna. The GNA announced Sunday that it had captured the town of Bani Walid, south of Tarhouna, from the LNA.
The GNA is pushing east despite a warning from the Russian government that it views Sirte as a “red line” and may intervene if the GNA moves to take that city. The Russians have reportedly been stepping up their efforts to assist Haftar, with Reuters reporting over the weekend that Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary firm has expanded its program to hire ex-Syrian rebel fighters and send them to Libya. Wagner’s Syrian mercenary program is lagging behind Turkey’s, which is one reason why the GNA is having so much success of late. It appears the Russians have decided to cut their losses to some extent, but they’re insisting on a de facto partition of Libya into a western sphere under the Turkish client GNA and an eastern sphere (where much of Libya’s oil is) under their client, Haftar. That’s why a potential GNA attack on Sirte is a problem, because it could upset those plans. Moscow is supporting Sisi’s plan to try to at least pause the fighting before Haftar’s position deteriorates any further.
MALI
1533 confirmed cases (+10)
90 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Malian government says it will investigate reports that its soldiers attacked and burned a Fulani village in central Mali’s Mopti region, killing at least 26 people, on Friday. At least one regional official says that “men dressed in Malian army fatigues” carried out the attack, which of course doesn’t necessarily mean it was actually the army but certainly suggests it. Mali’s army has come under increasing scrutiny over allegations of human rights abuses amid its campaign against Islamist extremists especially in the northern and central parts of the country. The Fulani, who are predominantly Muslim, are often targeted for attacks due to perceptions that they’re in league with extremist groups.
EUROPE
Protests against the police killing of George Floyd in the United States have sparked similar demonstrations against systemic racism around the world. The Washington Post reports on movements that have taken hold in Europe:
In London, protesters gathered outside the U.S. Embassy on Sunday for a second day of demonstrations. In Germany, “silent demonstrations” on Saturday drew 150,000 people; participants in Berlin chanted “Nazis out!” And in Rome, protesters pointed to far-right campaigns against migrants and the industries that they say exploit them in off-the-books jobs.
“Italy is not innocent,” read the sign held by Sara Mattei, a 22-year-old university student.
Floyd’s killing has inspired demonstrations from Australia to Brazil to Mexico to Canada. But it has struck a particular chord in Europe, where leaders have struggled to integrate a wave of migrants and refugees from Africa and the Middle East over the past seven years. A third of people of African descent in Europe report facing racial harassment.
“We learned, being in lockdown, what is important in our lives,” said Sheila Kinsey, 73, a Franciscan nun from Wheaton, Ill., who has lived in Rome for 10 years. “And it’s spurred us on to say: ‘Here is something else that is a pandemic.’”
GERMANY
185,869 confirmed cases (+173)
8776 reported fatalities (+7)
The Trump administration’s plan to reduce the US military deployment in Germany by some 9500 soldiers has apparently not been well received in many parts of Europe, where it’s being taken as another sign that the US might (horror of horrors) leave Europe to defend itself from…well, whatever it is we’re supposed to be defending Europe from, I guess. It’s also not been welcomed in Washington, for the same reason. Many of those soldiers look set to be redeployed to Poland, which is also in Europe, but it’s different, somehow. In Germany itself, the reaction has been a little mixed. Conservatives, including the ones running the German government, are criticizing the move. On the German left, though, it’s another story:
The leader of the parliamentary group of the leftwing party Die Linke welcomed the development. “The federal government should accept it with gratitude and promptly start preparing the complete withdrawal of US soldiers with the Trump administration,” said Dietmar Bartsch.
“It would have the collateral benefit of saving taxpayers billions, because there would not longer be a need to acquire new fighter jets.”
SPAIN
288,630 confirmed cases (+240)
27,136 reported fatalities (+1)
At Jacobin, Iker Itoiz Ciáurriz says that the Spanish right is using the COVID-19 pandemic as a chance not only to regroup, but to improve its political situation:
After the no-confidence vote against the last PP premier Mariano Rajoy in June 2018 (the first successful such vote since the return of democracy), the Right has regrouped its forces. Initially, three parties fought for leadership: the PP, which has adopted more radical positions since Pablo Casado was elected its leader in 2018; Vox, headed by Santiago Abascal; and Ciudadanos (Cs), originally a centrist formation which later moved to the right to compete with these others. But while in November’s election Cs’ vote collapsed, tipping it back toward the center, the PP and Vox have radicalized.
This radicalization owes both to these parties’ competition with each other and their shared aim of tearing down a government they call illegitimate. Amid the magnitude of the current pandemic, politicians in many countries have often sought consensus, shying from a rhetoric of sharp confrontation. But the PP and Vox have instead seen this crisis as a wonderful opportunity — a chance to topple the PSOE-Podemos government.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
691,962 confirmed cases (+18,375)
36,499 reported fatalities (+542)
Brazil is experiencing its own protests against racist police violence:
The killing of another black teenager by Rio de Janeiro police last month was, based on the numbers, unremarkable – one of hundreds gunned down every year by some of the world’s deadliest cops.
But the fallout has surprised many.
Brazil’s Supreme Court last week banned raids by Rio police during the COVID-19 pandemic and Sunday saw nationwide marches against right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, as U.S. demonstrations and a global debate over racial violence by police has spurred a reckoning in Brazil.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has reportedly suffered a terrible personal setback:
Hopefully he’ll be OK.
On the plus side, Bolsonaro has figured out a solution to Brazil’s rising tallies of COVID-19 cases and deaths: stop counting them. The Brazilian Health Ministry no longer plans to make public its cumulative pandemic statistics and only report day-to-day changes in the figures. Brazil has risen to second place behind the United States in terms of the number of cases and is third behind the US and the United Kingdom in terms of COVID-19 deaths. But I’m sure that’s got nothing to do with Bolsonaro’s decision to stop reporting those numbers.
UNITED STATES
2,007,449 confirmed cases (+18,905)
112,469 reported fatalities (+373)
Finally, if you’ll forgive a little self-promotion, over at Jacobin friend of the newsletter Alex Thurston and I have written a fairly pessimistic look at what US foreign policy will probably be like in a prospective Joe Biden administration:
And so we can begin to approximate how a Biden-led foreign policy agenda might look, by looking at those people most likely to formulate and implement it. By this approach, those who are hoping for a new era in America’s approach toward the rest of the world are likely to be disappointed. Indeed, if anything it would appear that the DC foreign policy establishment — the “Blob,” as former Obama adviser Ben Rhodes once put it — would be poised to maintain or even strengthen its hold on power under a President Biden.
In some ways, the Blob was never out of power. Their influence remains strong in DC’s major think tanks, in top universities, in newspapers such as the New York Times and in publications such as Foreign Affairs, and in the government. Figures like John Bolton and even Richard Grenell are, ultimately, members of the Blob. Yet in other ways, Trump’s victory denied the Blob — a bipartisan body — key roles. Right-wing trolls such as Sebastian Gorka and Stephen Miller come from outside the Blob’s usual circuits, and Trump’s erratic flirtations with diplomacy toward North Korea, or with reducing the US presence in Syria, run counter to the Blob’s worldview. A Biden presidency would give it more straightforward control over US foreign policymaking.