World update: June 20-21 2020
Stories from China, Libya, Russia, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
June 19, 1821: An Ottoman army defeats a group of fighters from the Filiki Eteria (Society of Friends), a Greek independence movement, in battle near the town of Drăgășani (in modern Romania). This was one of the earliest battles of the Greek War of Independence, so clearly the Greeks’ fortunes picked up afterward.
June 19, 1961: Kuwait gains its independence from Britain. However, Kuwaiti National Day is actually celebrated on February 25, the date of the coronation of its first ruler, Abdullah al-Salim al-Sabah, in 1950, partly because it’s a drag to celebrate national holidays in the middle of a hot Gulf summer.
June 20, 1631: Algerian pirates sack the Irish village of Baltimore. They carted off 107 captives, of whom only three ever made it back to Ireland.
June 20, 1789: Members of the French Third Estate take the Tennis Court Oath, in which they pledged not to dissolve under royal pressure. This was one of the first serious acts of defiance in the French Revolution and established the power of the National Assembly.
June 20, 1863: West Virginia is admitted to the Union as the 35th state.
June 21, 1791: French King Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette attempt to flee Paris to meet up with royalist troops in what’s become known as the “Flight to Varennes.” Needless to say they didn’t make it.
English artist Thomas Falcon Marshall’s 1854 painting The arrest of Louis XVI and his family at the house of the registrar of passports, at Varennes in June, 1791 (Wikimedia Commons)
June 21, 1826: Amid the Greek War of Independence, Egyptian-Ottoman forces under Ibrahim Pasha, son of Muhammad Ali Pasha, invade the Mani Peninsula in the southern Peloponnese. By August Ibrahim’s army will have retreated, invaded again, and retreated again. It was the first time in this conflict that the Ottomans’ Egyptian forces had been decisively defeated.
June 21, 1942: Axis forces under Erwin Rommel capture the Libyan city of Tobruk. Rommel was promoted to field marshal for his trouble, but the Allies retook the city in November.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for June 21:
9,038,809 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (3,735,066 active, +130,254 since yesterday)
469,604 reported fatalities (+3338 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
941 confirmed coronavirus cases (+19)
256 reported fatalities (+2)
Southern Transitional Council separatists have reportedly taken full control over the Yemeni island of Socotra after clashes with the Yemeni military. The Yemeni government called the seizure a “coup” and compared the STC with a “gang,” while nominal Socotran governor Ramzi Mahroos suggested that both the UAE, which backs the separatists, and Saudi Arabia, which backed the government the last time anybody checked, had allowed the takeover. The Saudis are supposedly trying to broker a resolution to months of tension between the STC and the government, but there’s been no indication from the STC to that end.
IRAN
204,952 confirmed cases (+2368)
9623 reported fatalities (+116)
The Iranian government may start offering discounts to airlines that might be amenable to using Iranian airspace for their commercial flights. Many large carriers have decided to stop using Iranian airspace this year amid the escalating tension between Iran and the United States. And as you may know, Iran could kind of use some cash at this point, so enticing at least some of those airlines back would be helpful.
Al Jazeera reports on the development of Chabahar port, perhaps the one project in all of Iran that has remained shielded from US sanctions because of its importance to the Indian and Afghan economies:
ASIA
INDIA
426,910 confirmed cases (+15,183)
13,703 reported fatalities (+426)
Indian security forces killed three alleged Kashmiri separatists in Srinagar on Sunday, while the Pakistani military said that Indian artillery fire killed one 13 year old girl on Pakistan’s side of the border. Indian authorities accused the Pakistanis of firing first.
In Ladakh, meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Saturday claimed the entire Galwan Valley for China. That’s the region where at least 20 Indian soldiers (and some unknown number of Chinese soldiers) were killed in a border brawl late Monday. Each country has accused the other’s military of violating a border that is so poorly delineated that both may be telling the truth. This new Chinese claim is certainly news to the Indian government, which accused Beijing of attempting to redraw said border, and will probably re-inflame tensions that seemed to be easing a couple of days ago.
CHINA
83,378 confirmed cases (+26) on the mainland, 1132 confirmed cases (+3) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (unchanged) on the mainland, 5 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Hong Kong
Some details of Beijing’s planned new security law for Hong Kong have been released by Chinese media, and they definitely suggest a change in status for the hitherto autonomous enclave:
According to details released by the official Xinhua news agency, Hong Kong will establish a local national security council to enforce the legislation, headed by the city’s leader Carrie Lam and supervised and guided by a new central government commission created by Beijing. A mainland adviser will also sit on the new Hong Kong body.
New local police and prosecution units will be set up to investigate and to enforce the law, backed by mainland security and intelligence officers deployed to Beijing’s new commission.
Lam will also have the power to appoint judges to hear cases related to national security, an unprecedented move likely to unnerve some investors, diplomats and business leaders in Hong Kong.
Currently senior judges allocate judicial rosters up through Hong Kong’s independent judicial system.
Mainland Chinese authorities have insisted that these changes won’t be used to target activists, just those who threaten national security. But as the US example shows, the definition of “national security” can be stretched to encompass pretty much anything. And regardless of how sweeping its implementation, the fact that this law is being approved by Beijing on Hong Kong’s behalf is itself an erosion of autonomy.
NORTH KOREA
No acknowledged cases
Under the principle of what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, I suppose, the North Korean government is apparently going to start sending its own propaganda leaflets over the border into South Korea to retaliate for defector groups in South Korea sending their leaflets north. It’s unclear why leaflets from North Korea would have any effect on the South Korean population, but as retaliations go at least this one carries no risk of a body count.
AFRICA
LIBYA
571 confirmed cases (+27)
10 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Both the Turkish and Egyptian governments staked their claims to the Libyan city of Sirte over the weekend. Yes, I realize that doesn’t really make sense, but that’s pretty much how it went. The Turkish government—speaking on behalf of its proxy, Libya’s Government of National Accord—demanded that Khalifa Haftar order his “Libyan National Army” to withdraw from Sirte. The Egyptian government—speaking on behalf of its proxy, Haftar—threatened to intervene directly in the Libyan war if the GNA doesn’t halt its advance on Sirte. Sounds like a real pickle! It’s not hard to see why everybody’s making a big deal out of Sirte, given that it protects the western end of a huge swath of crucial oil facilities. It’s also important because of its coastal location, with both Turkey and Russia (which is backing Haftar) reportedly eyeing it as a potential naval base.
SOMALIA
2779 confirmed cases (+24)
90 reported fatalities (+2)
Two bombings killed at least seven people in Somalia over the weekend. At least four people were killed late Saturday in a bombing just northwest of Mogadishu, while at least three were killed Sunday in a suicide attack on a military checkpoint in Galmudug state. Both attacks were probably carried out by al-Shabab, but so far neither it nor anybody else has claimed responsibility.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
5826 confirmed cases (+154)
130 reported fatalities (+5)
Vital Kamerhe, the chief of staff to Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, was convicted of embezzling around $50 million on Saturday and sentenced to 20 years’ hard labor. Kamerhe has insisted the prosecution was politically motivated and his lawyers say they plan to appeal, if for no other reason than that, according to them, hard labor isn’t a legal sentence under the DRC’s constitution.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
584,680 confirmed cases (+7728)
8111 reported fatalities (+109)
The US and Russian governments will start nuclear arms control talks on Monday, but they’re likely not going to get very far because of the Trump administration’s insistence that China also be at the table. The Chinese government has no interest in being at this particular table, since its nuclear arsenal is much smaller than either the US or Russian arsenals. The Trump administration, despite insisting that China should be a part of future arms control talks, seems to have no idea how to get Beijing to participate other than sort of demanding that Moscow make it happen. Since Vladimir Putin is not Xi Jinping’s boss, that’s not going to work. The main topic at these talks is expected to be a possible extension of New START, which will expire in February and which the Russian government has said it wants to extend. Despite considerable pressure from US allies to extend the agreement, at this point the chances of that happening seem 50/50 at best.
The Washington Post’s Robyn Dixon reports on the preparations for Russia’s big constitutional referendum:
The voting, which begins Thursday and wraps up July 1, is largely symbolic; the changes have already been passed by Russia’s parliament. Still, the Kremlin wants a credible turnout — at least 55 percent — to give legitimacy to the project to keep Putin at the helm.
Officials are revving up all kinds of hype to stir interest.
There’s the game-show approach. Vote — and get the chance to win an apartment, car, smartphone or cash prize. And there’s the sweet-tooth appeal. A Moscow brochure urging people to vote includes a recipe for a pink “Moscow Cake.”
Putin’s breathtaking maneuver to stay in power until the year he turns 84 is masked in myriad confusing constitutional amendments including promises to increase social payments and statements on children, health care, education and Russia’s view of history.
Putin did sort of address the main purpose of these constitutional changes over the weekend, with Russian media noting Sunday that he will “not rule out the possibility of running for office” again if he’s legally able. You know, maybe. No biggie.
SERBIA
12,894 confirmed cases (+91)
261 reported fatalities (+1)
As expected, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is going to win Sunday’s parliamentary election handily, with projections putting its share of the vote at just over 63 percent. Coming in a distant second is Serbia’s Socialist Party, Vučić’s coalition partner, with around ten percent. A large chunk of the opposition boycotted the vote, citing concerns about public health as well as Vučić’s efforts to rig the system. The SNS would have won without the boycotts, but probably not by quite as substantial a margin.
UNITED KINGDOM
304,331 confirmed cases (+1221)
42,632 reported fatalities (+43)
The man who allegedly went on a knife rampage in a park in the town of Reading on Saturday evening, killing three people and wounding three others, is a Libyan national who was reportedly known to UK security services and they are treating the incident as a terrorist attack. At this point they have no evidence that the suspect had contact with any outside group like al-Qaeda or IS.
Meanwhile, Brexit is continuing to go great:
The European Union will impose full customs controls and checks on goods from the U.K. from 2021, declining to reciprocate London’s plan to offer traders a six-month grace period.
“You can count on us to be forcible and systematic in implementing the deal, and in doing so certainly protecting the single market,” Joao Vale de Almeida, the EU’s ambassador to the U.K., said on a Chatham House webinar on Thursday, when asked if the bloc would mirror Britain’s stance. “We took note of the British decision, but we are not at the point in time where we either need or wish to take decisions on our side.”
Basically Boris Johnson, who’s been insisting he would never ask for an extension to the current Brexit transitional period, asked for an extension under a different name and the EU has told him to get bent. Like I said, it’s going great.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
3789 confirmed cases (unchanged)
33 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Iranian government’s latest aid shipment to Venezuela was expected to arrive Sunday, bringing food and probably refinery equipment. The latter is speculative, but given the size of the cargo ship the Iranians sent it seems unlikely that it’s just carrying food.
UNITED STATES
2,356,657 confirmed cases (+26,079)
122,247 reported fatalities (+267)
A federal judge has refused to grant the White House an injunction that would bar former National Security Advisor John Bolton from selling his tell-all book about his tenure in the Trump administration. The ruling was critical of Bolton but concluded that an injunction wouldn’t make any difference since the book has already been shipped to sellers, leaked to media outlets, and even (so I’m told) been made available online. The administration is still suing Bolton for the profits from his book sales, on the grounds that he didn’t clear the book for publication and is therefore violating national security.
Finally, I hate to leave you on a downer but it may distress you to learn that, despite the creation of SPACE FORCE, the United States is apparently still not ready to do SPACE WAR:
The U.S. Department of Defense’s new space strategy is doing little to settle fears that the United States isn’t ready for a conflict that would extend beyond Earth’s atmosphere, experts told Foreign Policy on Wednesday.
The Defense Space Strategy, a sublayer of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, indicates the Pentagon’s growing concern that China and Russia have developed military doctrine that would extend a conflict into space, where the Pentagon admits it has little operational experience.
“More than any other nation, the United States relies on space-based capabilities to project and employ power on a global scale,” the strategy, which was released on Wednesday and follows a 2011 effort from the Obama administration, said. “China and Russia have analyzed U.S. dependencies on space and have developed doctrine, organizations, and capabilities specifically designed to contest or deny U.S. access to and operations in the domain. Concurrently, their use of space is expanding significantly.”
Bummer. Well, I’m sure it’s nothing another couple hundred billion dollars a year couldn’t fix.