World update: July 14 2020
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
July 13, 1878: The Treaty of Berlin (temporarily) settles the “Great Eastern Crisis” over Russia’s threat to the Ottoman Empire. The treaty superseded the earlier Treaty of San Stefano, which ended the 1877-1878 war between Russia and the Ottomans but was so lopsided in Russia’s favor that Britain and France felt compelled to step in and quash it. Berlin recognized the independent states of Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia and an autonomous (effectively independent) Bulgaria. It shrunk Bulgaria down from the size envisioned under San Stefano and forced the Russians to return some territory to the Ottomans. Austria-Hungary was allowed to effectively annex Bosnia and Herzegovina, which it formally annexed in 1908.
July 13, 1977: The Somali National Army, working with a rebel group called the Western Somali Liberation Front, invades Ethiopia, beginning the Ogaden War. Ethiopia’s historical Ogaden region is nowadays officially known as its Somali Region, which might give you some indication as to what the conflict was about. Basically the Somalis thought they could take advantage of a moment of internal weakness in Ethiopia to seize the predominantly Somali Ogaden. As both countries were Soviet clients, Moscow had a decision to make here, and it chose Ethiopia. With Soviet aid and Cuban reinforcements, the Ethiopians turned the tide and pushed the SNA back into Somalia by March 1978. Somalia then shifted its Cold War allegiance to the US.
July 14, 1789: A crowd of Parisians, having been out in the streets demonstrating for two days over King Louis XVI’s sacking of finance minister Jacques Necker, attacks the Bastille to seize the arms and ammunition stored inside. The Bastille was mostly used at this point as an armory, but its reputation as a political prison also made it a potent symbol of royal excess. The “Storming of the Bastille” is generally regarded as the even that triggered the French Revolution, as the insurrection then spread from Paris throughout the country.
French painter Jean-Pierre Houël’s 1789 La prise de la Bastille (Wikimedia Commons)
July 14, 1915: Sharif Hussein of Mecca writes to the British high commissioner in Egypt, Sir Henry McMahon, initiating an exchange of ten letters (through March 1916) known as the “McMahon–Hussein Correspondence.” In them, the two men discuss Hussein undertaking a revolt against the Ottoman Empire in exchange for British recognition of an independent Arab state/caliphate (ruled by Hussein, of course) at the conclusion of World War I. Hussein did, as we know, revolt against the Ottomans, but Britain reneged on pretty much everything it promised him. It carved the Arab world up into mandates, let France take Syria-Lebanon, and eventually, after Hussein’s repeated complaints, more or less green-lit the Saudi conquest of Mecca and the rest of the Hejaz.
July 14, 1958: The 14 July Revolution
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for July 14:
13,448,500 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (5,026,560 active, +217,917 since yesterday)
580,349 reported fatalities (+5413 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
439 confirmed coronavirus cases (+22)
21 reported fatalities (+2)
The Russian military says that three of its soldiers (and possibly some number of Turkish soldiers; accounts differ) were wounded Tuesday by a roadside bomb targeting a joint Russian-Turkish security patrol in Syria’s Idlib province. Assuming this report is credible the bomb was likely planted by one of the rebel groups operating in Idlib.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
42,360 confirmed cases (+1728) in Israel, 6764 confirmed cases (+198) in Palestine
371 reported fatalities (+6) in Israel, 44 reported fatalities (+5) in Palestine
According to Al-Monitor’s Rina Bassist, the Trump administration is making it more difficult for Benjamin Netanyahu to win US approval of his West Bank annexation plan:
Israeli sources yesterday told Public Broadcasting radio station Kan that the White House has been adding conditions for supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s annexation plan. The Trump administration has already indicated it would like to have Blue and White on board — a request that now seems to be translated into a clear condition. Reportedly, the White House wants to see the plan introduced as part of an agreement by the two ruling parties, Likud and Blue and White, making sure Israel’s political stability is maintained.
The report also says the White House wishes the plan to include significant benefits to the Palestinians, including permits for the construction of thousands of housing units for Palestinians across the West Bank.
Blue and White leader Benny Gantz has been reluctant to go along with any annexation measure, even a relatively limited one, perhaps because he’d rather not hand Netanyahu a political victory. And the requirement for Palestinian construction permits will likely enrage the West Bank settler community, which is already on edge over a potential annexation over fears that it could create the outlines of a future Palestinian state. Internationally no other major player apart from the US is even remotely supportive of annexation, so without the Trump administration on board there’s little hope of gaining any other backers.
IRAN
262,173 confirmed cases (+2521)
13,211 reported fatalities (+179)
The Iranian government said Tuesday that last week it executed Reza Asgari, a former worker in its defense ministry who was convicted of selling missile information to the CIA and Mossad. It’s unclear when Asgari was arrested or tried, but the Iranians did announce that they’d rounded up a number of suspected spies last July, and he may have been among them.
At Responsible Statecraft, Paul Pillar discusses the string of recent…oh, let’s call them “incidents” at sensitive Iranian military facilities, possibly the result of US and/or Israeli sabotage, and expects the Iranians to resist getting drawn into a wider conflict—at least for now:
Make no mistake about what is going on. This is not a set of actions “short of war,” as some would put it. It is war. We certainly should worry about escalation of the conflict into something so big that everyone would call it war. But that does not make what already has transpired anything less than acts of war.
In this regard, do not be deceived by the Iranian regime’s downplaying of the recent attacks and its restraint — so far — regarding retaliation. A date circled on Iranian policymakers’ calendars is January 20, 2021. The Iranians can read American polls, and the dominant thread at the moment in Iranian thinking about security policy is to tough it out until there is regime change in Washington. Iranian leaders don’t want to be suckered into the sort of October — or July — surprise that would generate a rally-round-the-flag effect in America and could rescue Donald Trump’s fading re-election chances, although they realize the restraint does risk making them appear weak.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
25,113 confirmed cases (+543)
319 reported fatalities (+6)
The border clash between Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers that began late Sunday continued into Tuesday, with the death toll now standing at 11 Azerbaijani soldiers and four Armenian soldiers. One Azerbaijani major general was among those killed, which in particular raises concerns that this clash could continue to escalate into a full-blown military engagement. Azerbaijani and Armenian officials continue to blame one another for the confrontation, which to this point has mostly involved exchanges of artillery fire. Armenia and Azerbaijan last got into a scuffle like this in 2016, and that one ended after a few days. But the two countries have been at odds over the status of Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region for over a century, and any flare-up has to be viewed with concern.
AFGHANISTAN
34,740 confirmed cases (+285)
1048 reported fatalities (+36)
A roadside bomb in Kabul killed at least four civilians and wounded four others on Tuesday. There’s been no claim of responsibility but local officials have pointed the finger at the Taliban. Under the terms of the agreement they signed with the US in February, the Taliban is supposed to avoid attacking civilians, but those officials claim the real target was a military convoy.
PAKISTAN
253,604 confirmed cases (+1979)
5320 reported fatalities (+54)
Gunmen attacked a military convoy in Pakistan’s Balochistan province on Tuesday, killing at least eight soldiers and wounding five others. There’s been no claim of responsibility in this case either, but Baluch separatists seem likely.
MALAYSIA
8729 confirmed cases (+4)
122 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Shafie Apdal, leader of Malaysia’s Sabah Heritage Party and a potential candidate for the prime minister’s office, suggested on Tuesday that his and other opposition parties may try to force a new election. Current PM Muhyiddin Yassin won a vote on Monday to oust the speaker of the lower house of Malaysia’s parliament, which could be considered a sign that the previously unchallenged PM does command a parliamentary majority. But the thing is, he won by two votes with one legislator abstaining and another absent, which could be considered a sign that he doesn’t actually command an absolute majority. Though other opposition figures have suggested they’d be interested in serving as PM, Shafie has the support of former PM Mahathir Mohamad to challenge Muhyiddin in the event of a snap election.
SINGAPORE
46,630 confirmed cases (+347)
27 reported fatalities (+1)
Singapore’s ruling party won a seemingly decisive victory in Friday’s parliamentary election, but journalist Kirsten Han suggests that its leader was dissatisfied with the outcome:
When Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, decided to call a snap election in the middle of the pandemic, he had almost everything going for him. His People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965, was forewarned about the impending nine-day campaign sprint. COVID-19 regulations also meant that physical rallies, a major avenue for outreach and fundraising for opposition political parties, were banned from this year’s general election. Walkabouts and house visits were allowed as long as safe distancing guidelines were observed, but much of the campaigning was moved online. With the local traditional media known to take a pro-PAP slant—Singapore doesn’t rank 158th on the World Press Freedom Index for nothing—the asymmetry of resources, and concern about a “flight to safety” mentality among voters, opposition parties worried that the PAP would win every single seat in Parliament.
But that didn’t happen. Instead, the party’s vote-share slipped from the 70 percent it received in the 2015 election to 61 percent, and the Workers’ Party captured 10 out of 93 seats. This is the largest opposition presence Singapore has seen since 1966; the Workers’ Party leader Pritam Singh will be officially recognised as leader of the opposition and given staff and resources. That’s a major concession by the government, since the role has previously been only an unofficial and unsupported one.
Most other political parties in democratic countries would see a 61 percent vote-share as pretty respectable, particularly since it translated into 83 seats, allowing the PAP to continue its supermajority in Parliament. But Lee admitted his disappointment: “We have a clear mandate, but the percentage of the popular vote is not as high as I had hoped for,” Channel News Asia reported him saying in a press conference.
As Han writes, Lee really prefers the appearance of democracy to actual democracy. The voters, at least this time around, apparently didn’t feel likewise.
CHINA
83,605 confirmed cases (+3) on the mainland, 1570 confirmed cases (+48) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (unchanged) on the mainland, 8 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Hong Kong
Donald Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order revoking Hong Kong’s special status under US law, which means it will now be subject to the same rules governing the US relationship with mainland China. While there was no doubt the Trump administration was planning to escalate its response to China’s new Hong Kong security law, this may have been a bit more escalatory than expected, particularly insofar as it’s likely to have substantial negative consequences for many US companies in addition to Hong Kong and China. Trump also signed into law a measure authorizing sanctions against banks that do business with Chinese officials involved in implementing Beijing’s Hong Kong policy. The Chinese government, meanwhile, sanctioned Lockheed Martin over US arms sales to Taiwan, but the practical impact of that move is likely to be almost zero.
AFRICA
LIBYA
1563 confirmed cases (+51)
42 reported fatalities (+2)
The Khalifa Haftar-aligned parliament based in the eastern Libyan city of Tobruk called late Monday for the Egyptian government to intervene directly in its war with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord. Haftar and his “Libyan National Army” have been driven out of western Libya and are now in a standoff with GNA-aligned forces around the city of Sirte. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has previously said that any GNA attack on Sirte would cross a “red line,” but it’s unclear what, if anything, he’s really prepared to do. Sisi backs Haftar, along with the UAE, Russia, and France (though the French government keeps denying it), while the GNA is supported—much more effectively these days, it must be said—by Turkey. Speaking of which, the Turkish government said Tuesday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and US President Donald Trump “agreed in a phone call to work more closely in Libya to ensure lasting stability.” Surely if those two titans put their minds to it, there’s literally nothing they can achieve. Er, I mean can’t achieve.
TUNISIA
1306 confirmed cases (+4)
50 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Islamist Ennahda party, the largest in Tunisia’s parliament, announced Tuesday that it is withdrawing support for the coalition government led by Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfkah, a step that could potentially collapse the government and force a new election. Fakhfakh is under scrutiny over allegations that companies in which he owns stock won a handful of government contracts, though he denies having anything to do with the awarding of those contracts. More to the point, though, Fakhfakh appears to be on the verge of reshuffling his cabinet to remove its six Ennahda ministers. It’s little wonder that the party is now moving against him. A no confidence vote would require 109 votes in the parliament to bring down Fakhfakh’s government, and Ennahda alone can provide almost half of those.
ETHIOPIA
7969 confirmed cases (+203)
139 reported fatalities (+11)
Satellite imagery shows that Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s reservoir has started filling with water, but fortunately it appears this is due to seasonal rains and does not mean that the Ethiopians have started filling it. Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan are still unable to reach an agreement governing the filling of the reservoir and managing its impact on water levels on the Blue Nile and Nile rivers. The Ethiopians have said they will start filling the reservoir this month, but it’s not believed they’re ready to start doing that yet. If they do start filling it without a deal in place, it will drastically escalate tensions over what is an existential and therefore very combustible issue for all three nations.
EUROPE
BELARUS
65,269 confirmed cases (+155)
474 reported fatalities (+6)
Ripping the proverbial mask entirely off, the Belarusian government on Tuesday disqualified presidential candidate Viktor Babariko from running in next month’s election. Babariko has been considered the strongest challenger to incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, and while normally that wouldn’t mean very much Lukashenko’s public support has cratered so badly that he might actually be in serious danger of either losing the election or of losing control of his country if he decides to rig the outcome. Which he may already be doing, as Babariko’s disqualification suggests. Hundreds of people gathered to protest in downtown Minsk as news of the exclusion of Babariko and one other opposition candidate spread. Elections officials did approve the candidacy of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya—whose husband was arrested by Belarusian authorities in May and remains in custody. Clearly it’s going to be an extremely free and fair election.
NORTH MACEDONIA
8332 confirmed cases (+135)
389 reported fatalities (+4)
North Macedonian voters will head to the polls tomorrow in what is shaping up as a close and potentially indecisive parliamentary election. The ruling Social Democrats (SDSM) and the far-right VMRO-DPMNE appear to be neck and neck in the polls, and both are only polling at under 25 percent of the vote, substantially worse than either did in the 2016 election. VMRO-DPMNE has been running against the agreement that SDSM leader/Prime Minister Zoran Zaev negotiated with Greece in 2018 that involved adding the word “North” to Macedonia’s name, but the party says if it forms the next government it will not completely upend that deal. It may try to renegotiate some of its specific provisions, though, which would likely slow North Macedonia’s European Union accession process.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
3,545,077 confirmed cases (+65,594)
139,143 reported fatalities (+935)
New research suggests that the level of atmospheric methane, which is a far more efficient greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, increased by some nine percent from 2007 to 2017. The cause? Mostly it’s increased meat consumption, but a significant chunk of the increase was caused by, you guessed it, fracking. Once again we see the United States leading the way into a bold new global future.
Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Eli Clifton reports that the Heritage Foundation, one of the most influential conservative think tanks in DC, has failed to disclose a significant conflict of interest linked to a South Korean arms manufacturer:
The conservative Heritage Foundation has consistently fought international treaties banning weapons that pose an outsized threat to civilians in the war zone. This would include anti-personnel landmines, cluster munitions, and “killer robots”—as well as regulations that would enforce arms embargoes on human rights offenders. And yet, Heritage fails to disclose a possible financial incentive for taking these positions.
Heritage received at least $5.8 million from the Hanwha Group between 2007 and 2015, according to the organization’s annual reports reviewed by Responsible Statecraft. Between 2010 and 2014, Hanwha—a South Korean conglomerate that has produced landmine and autonomous weapons systems—contributed a minimum of $1 million per year, making Hanwa one of the Heritage Foundation’s biggest donors. Hanwha was not listed as a donor after 2015, but Heritage permits donors to make anonymous contributions and Heritage and the Hanwha Group did not respond to questions about whether the funding arrangement continued after 2015.
However, Korean media regularly reports on the close relationship between Heritage and Hanwha, and suggested their friendly relationship was alive and well, at least as recently as October 2018 when Heritage Foundation founder Edwin J. Feulner and Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn met in Seoul. This meeting was documented by The Korea Herald, a major South Korean English language newspaper. Topics discussed included: “difficulties faced by Korean businesses in the U.S., despite the successful renegotiation of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement.”
“Feulner and the Hanwha chairman have maintained a working relationship for the past 30 years, holding regular meetings to discuss outstanding political and economic issues between the two countries,” concluded The Korea Herald article.