World update: July 11-12 2020
Stories from Syria, Afghanistan, Mali, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
July 10, 1778: King Louis XVI of France declares war against Britain in support of Britain’s 13 rebellious North American colonies. This turned out to be one of the biggest inflection points in the American Revolution, because without French assistance it’s safe to say that war would have turned out much differently.
July 10, 2017: Iraqi authorities declare the city of Mosul liberated from the Islamic State, marking the recapture of the last major city in Iraq that had still been in IS’s hands. Two more large campaigns followed in Tal Afar and Hawija, but once Mosul was retaken the outcome of the campaign against IS in Iraq was no longer in doubt.
July 11, 1405: Chinese admiral Zheng He sets sail on the first of his “treasure voyages.” Between 1405 and 1433 Zheng led his fleets to destinations around Southeast Asia and across the Indian Ocean, visiting India, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and East Africa. There’s even some creative pseudo-history out there that argues he visited South America. The voyages ended as suddenly as they began, for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear but seem to have been related to Ming court politics.
July 11, 1995: The Srebrenica massacre begins. Bosnian Serb forces killed almost 8400 Bosniak men and boys in and around Srebrenica over the next couple of weeks, and carried off an estimated 25,000-30,000 women, children, and elderly.
July 12, 1191: The Siege of Acre ends
July 12, 1575: At the Battle of Rajmahal, the Mughal Empire eliminates the Karrani Dynasty and annexes the Sultanate of Bengal.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for July 12:
13,028,182 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (4,881,579 active, +194,677 since yesterday)
571,080 reported fatalities (+3956 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
394 confirmed coronavirus cases (unchanged)
16 reported fatalities (unchanged)
In the face of Russian resistance, the United Nations Security Council caved on Saturday, voting to reauthorize humanitarian aid shipments from Turkey into northwestern Syria by only one border crossing rather than the two that had previously been in operation. The authorization for all UN aid operations in Syria had expired on Friday, and all week the council has struggled to come to some agreement about reauthorization. Russia and China vetoed two resolutions that would have kept both crossings open, while the the council voted down two Russian resolutions limiting shipments to one crossing. The resolution that finally passed, authored by Germany and Belgium, only keeps one crossing open but does so for 12 months (Russia had sought six) and does not contain language blaming Syria’s humanitarian crisis on Western sanctions, as the Russian resolutions had.
The reduction to one border crossing potentially means hundreds of thousands of people could see reductions in aid or no aid at all. The Russians have been insisting that a single crossing could meet all of northwestern Syria’s needs with some logistical adjustments, but at the same time Moscow argues that all of these aid crossing points violate Syrian sovereignty and says that all humanitarian aid should be delivered via the Syrian government. Restricting aid is also a way to strengthen the Syrian government’s leverage to force rebels in northwestern Syria to surrender. So presumably it intends for fewer people to receive aid now than were receiving it previously.
YEMEN
1465 confirmed cases (+76)
417 reported fatalities (+52)
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said early Monday that it had intercepted rockets and drones fired by the Houthis toward Saudi Arabia. There are no additional details beyond that as yet.
Citing two UN “sources,” Reuters says that the Houthis have agreed to allow a UN inspection team to visit the FSO Safer, which is moored in the Red Sea and holds some 1.1 million barrels of oil that are just waiting to leak out into the sea or worse. The UN wants to assess the vessel and hopefully make whatever repairs are needed to avert an environmental disaster.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
38,670 confirmed cases (+1206) in Israel, 6230 confirmed cases (+299) in Palestine
362 reported fatalities (+8) in Israel, 36 reported fatalities (+3) in Palestine
Thousands of people reportedly protested in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square over the Israeli government’s handling of the pandemic. Israel’s COVID-19 outbreak is resurging after seemingly having come under control, and people—especially the self-employed—are increasingly feeling economic pain. As we noted on Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s formerly high poll numbers have crashed as approval of his effective response to the crisis has turned into opposition over his failed response.
IRAN
257,303 confirmed cases (+2186)
12,829 reported fatalities (+194)
There’s reportedly been a fire at a petrochemical plant in Iran’s Khuzestan province, and while it seems like it was accidental I figured I’d mention it given how many things in Iran seem to be blowing up, catching on fire, or otherwise these days.
The Iranian government has issued its findings in the downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 outside of Tehran back in January. Unsurprisingly, given that they’ve already admitted to shooting the plane down, the Iranians cited human error as the cause. Specifically, they say the air defense system that identified the aircraft was “misaligned” and so gave one of its operators a false reading as to the plane’s trajectory. A “defective communication” device then apparently prevented the operator from contacting his superiors, and so he made the decision to fire on his own. This is a very simple and believable explanation, to be sure, but it sure is convenient that the Iranians can blame some busted gear and one over-zealous technician rather than, say, some more systematic issues or anybody higher up in the chain of command. Iranian officials have sent the flight data recorders to France, so there may be more findings to come from that.
The New York Times says it’s obtained a copy of the rumored and/or pending Iranian-Chinese partnership agreement:
The partnership, detailed in an 18-page proposed agreement obtained by The New York Times, would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects. In exchange, China would receive a regular — and, according to an Iranian official and an oil trader, heavily discounted — supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.
The document also describes deepening military cooperation, potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the United States for decades. It calls for joint training and exercises, joint research and weapons development and intelligence sharing — all to fight “the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes.”
There’s nothing in this description about China basing soldiers in Iran or gaining control of any Iranian islands as part of the agreement, but those aspects are still heavily rumored and have been the source of substantial disagreement over the partnership within Iran.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (left) and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (right) in Tehran in 2016 (Iranian government via Wikimedia Commons)
Those Chinese investments could total as much as $400 billion over the life of the deal, much of it up front, and even at that it’s likely to be very favorable to China as the Iranians really aren’t in much position to strike a hard bargain. The US government will howl over this deal should it come to pass—indeed, it’s already howling—so it’s probably worth pointing out that this partnership deal might not have come to pass, or at least that it wouldn’t have been of this size and scope, had Donald Trump not scrapped the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and tried to completely destroy the Iranian economy. It’s Trump’s handling of Iran that has made Tehran desperate enough to submit itself to the only global economic power strong enough to tell the United States to buzz off.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
34,451 confirmed cases (+85)
1010 reported fatalities (+16)
The Washington Post reports that there seems to be a major divide between Taliban leadership and Taliban members on the subject of negotiations with the Afghan government:
In talks in Doha and in Kabul, the Taliban’s leaders have struck a conciliatory tone: Issues of human rights, democracy and power sharing are open for discussion, they said, and will be worked out during peace talks with the Afghan government.
But here, in one of the militant group’s long-held districts in eastern Afghanistan, Taliban commanders and fighters speak not of peace but of toppling the Afghan government in Kabul. They boast of a hard-fought “military victory” over American forces in the country.
“We will only accept 100 percent of power in Afghanistan,” said Yaser, a 26-year-old Taliban fighter from Marawara district, whose comments were echoed by his commander and others in the district. Yaser, like many Afghans, goes by a single name.
The competing visions of a postwar Afghanistan within the Taliban’s ranks reveal the difficult task facing the group’s leaders as they seek to rally support for an agreement with the government in Kabul ahead of long-awaited formal talks. Many fear that even with a peace deal, a fractured Taliban could lead Afghanistan back to a period of perpetual violence.
PAKISTAN
248,872 confirmed cases (+2521)
5197 reported fatalities (+74)
Four Pakistani soldiers and four alleged “terrorists” were killed in a battle in Pakistan’s North Waziristan region on Sunday. The soldiers were in the area conducting an operation to root out militants, presumably affiliated with a faction of the Pakistani Taliban.
INDIA
879,466 confirmed cases (+29,108)
23,187 reported fatalities (+500)
Indian police and paramilitaries reportedly killed six Naga rebels in an operation to clear out one of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland’s hideouts in Arunachal Pradesh state on Saturday. The Maoist NSCN has been active since 1980 and has as its end goal a new state for the Naga people, who occupy parts of northeastern India and northwestern Myanmar. For the most part they operate in India, with bases across the border in Myanmar.
CHINA
83,594 confirmed cases (+7) on the mainland, 1470 confirmed cases (+37) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (unchanged) on the mainland, 7 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Hong Kong
According to the Wall Street Journal (though we’ll be referring to a Reuters summary to avoid the WSJ paywall), the Trump administration is pondering a list of mostly bad and/or inadequate options for sanctioning China over the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy. So far the administration has stuck to sanctioning Chinese officials involved in Hong Kong policy (and Uyghur policy, while we’re on the subject), but the actual impact of those kinds of measures is mostly symbolic. But the fact is that any harsher measures that might actually impact the Hong Kong or even Chinese economies pose major risk to US and other Western companies as well, since many Western firms have developed a substantial economic presence in the city. The administration may announce a new round of sanctions as soon as this week, but it’s unclear how harsh they will be.
AFRICA
SUDAN
10,250 confirmed cases (unchanged)
650 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Sudan’s interim government is revamping the country’s penal code. In addition to criminalizing the practice of female genital mutilation, which it announced on Friday, the government has decriminalized apostasy, has eliminated the use of public flogging as punishment for a number of misdemeanors, and will now let non-Muslims consume alcohol, albeit privately. It has also ended a requirement that women get permission from a male guardian in order to travel with their children.
TUNISIA
1263 confirmed cases (+18)
50 reported fatalities (unchanged)
A group of Tunisian political parties has decided to organize a no confidence vote in parliament speaker Rached Ghannouchi, including at least four parties that are partnering with Ghannouchi’s Ennahda party in Tunisia’s current coalition government. It’s not clear that this group has enough votes to oust Ghannouchi, but the fact that Ennahda’s coalition partners are involved in the effort isn’t a great harbinger for the stability of Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh’s government. Fakhfakh has himself been under pressure over an alleged conflict of interest, and Ennahda—the largest party in parliament—now says it wants to see a new government. Tunisian politics are deeply fractured, so much so that if either Ghannouchi or Fakhfakh were to fall it’s hard to imagine where that could lead other than a snap election.
MALI
2411 confirmed cases (+5)
121 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta announced Saturday that he’s dissolved Mali’s Constitutional Court, in a bid to end days of sometimes violent protests against his government. Many protesters have been calling for Keïta’s resignation over his failure to…well, you name it, really—from containing Islamist violence to improving the economy to reducing corruption, Keïta hasn’t done it. However, some leaders of the opposition, including Islamist cleric Mahmoud Dicko, have suggested there might be room for compromise if Keïta drastically changes his government.
The court has been at the center of public discontent since it partially overturned the results of March’s parliamentary election back in April, which worked to the benefit of Keïta’s party. Dissolving the court, and appointing a new one that might in theory either reinstate the original vote count or scrap the election altogether and order a new one, is a big concession to the protesters. Prime Minister Boubou Cissé may have made another on Saturday, when he told reporters that he would seek to form a government that was “open to facing the challenges of the day.” I say “may have” because, to be honest, I don’t really know what “open to facing the challenges of the day means,” and I suspect it doesn’t mean anything. But it may allow for the possibility of bringing opposition leaders into the cabinet.
Regardless, though, the opposition doesn’t seem satisfied, as Saturday’s second straight day of major protests showed. A spokesperson for the opposition coalition, which calls itself “M5-RFP” (le Mouvement du 5 juin-Rassemblement des Forces Patriotiques) after the date of its initial protest last month, told Reuters on Sunday that “we are not going to accept this nonsense” and said that “we demand [Keïta’s] resignation plain and simple.” The violent response of Malian security forces seems to be hardening the opposition’s resolve. At least four protesters were reportedly killed on Friday, and opposition leaders say another eight were killed on Saturday.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
8033 confirmed cases (+62)
189 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Congolese Justice Minister Célestin Tunda resigned on Saturday in a sign of discord between President Felix Tshisekedi and his predecessor/unacknowledged coalition partner, Joseph Kabila. Tunda is one of the leaders of Kabila’s Common Front for Congo (FCC) political coalition, which has been pushing several judicial “reforms” that seem intended to undermine the political independence of the Congolese judiciary. Tshisekedi has signaled opposition to these changes, but because the FCC controls parliament and the cabinet—and because Kabila maybe/probably arranged the results of the 2018 election that put Tshisekedi in power, the president may not have the final say in whether these measures become law.
Tunda’s resignation comes after he apparently went around Tshisekedi to try to approve the “reforms” himself. His departure could alleviate some of the tension between the Tshisekedi and Kabila camps, since he was one of the people adding to that tension. But it could just as easily exacerbate that tension.
EUROPE
POLAND
37,891 confirmed cases (+370)
1571 reported fatalities (+3)
The second round of Poland’s presidential election is officially history, but the results are not. Exit polling gives incumbent Andrzej Duda a very slim edge over Warsaw Mayor and challenger Rafał Trzaskowski, 51 percent to 49 percent, close enough that both candidates have started declaring victory, and there’s no sign of an actual vote count as yet. Turnout seems to have been high, somewhere in the 70 percent range. Trzaskowski has been running as a candidate who will use his presidential powers to rein in the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, whereas Duda has enabled PiS’s far-right agenda and his reelection has been a major priority for the party’s leadership. The campaign was fought mostly on the basis of social issues, with Duda essentially running against LGBT Poles while Trzaskowski promoted tolerance and promised to be friendlier toward the European Union than Duda has been.
BULGARIA
7252 confirmed cases (+77)
268 reported fatalities (+1)
Thousands of Bulgarians protested for the third straight day in Sofia on Saturday, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and his government over corruption allegations. The demonstrators are angry over possible ties between government officials and organized crime, and the Borisov government’s apparent disinterest in prosecuting or even investigating it. Earlier in the day, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, who is opposed to Borisov’s GERB party, gave a national address in which he accused the government of having a “mafia character” and called for “the restoration of the rule of law and basic civil freedoms that have been methodically violated over the last years.”
SERBIA
18,360 confirmed cases (+287)
393 reported fatalities (+11)
Thousands of Serbs protested in Belgrade on Saturday for the fifth night in a row, mostly over what they see as President Aleksandar Vučić’s botched response to the pandemic. The protesters believe that Vučić has been lying about the severity of Serbia’s outbreak when it’s suited him—as, for example, when it came time to hold a parliamentary election last month—and now they’re angry that his government is trying to reimpose a severe lockdown, the need for which they argue was created by Vučić’s decision to relax restrictions (again, mostly for the election) too soon.
KOSOVO
4931 confirmed cases (+216)
102 reported fatalities (+1)
Vučić met with Kosovan Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti by video on Sunday, during which they apparently agreed on an agenda for the in person meeting they’re scheduled to have in Brussels over the next week. The EU has stepped in to try to mediate a solution to the Serbian-Kosovan conflict, which officials insist must be resolved before either country can gain EU membership. The underlying issue—Kosovo’s demand that its independence be recognized vs. Serbia’s unwillingness to recognize it—remains pretty much static, and it’s unclear how the EU expects to find common ground.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
3,413,995 confirmed cases (+58,349)
137,782 reported fatalities (+380)
Finally, The American Prospect’s Jonathan Guyer writes that a potential Biden administration’s foreign policy team is likely to be filled with people drawn from one of the least understood corners of The Blob:
They had been public servants their whole careers. But when Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, two departing Obama officials were anxious for work. Trump’s win had caught them by surprise.
Sergio Aguirre and Nitin Chadda had reached the most elite quarters of U.S. foreign policy. Aguirre had started out of school as a fellow in the White House and a decade later had become chief of staff to U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power. Chadda, who joined the Pentagon out of college as a speechwriter, had become a key adviser to Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in even less time. Now, Chadda had a long-shot idea.
They turned to an industry of power-brokering little known outside the capital: strategic consultancies. Retiring leaders often open firms bearing their names: Madeleine Albright has one, as do Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen. Their strategic consultancies tend to blur corporate and governmental roles. This obscure corner of Washington is critical to understanding how a President Joe Biden would conduct foreign policy. He has been picking top advisers from this shadowy world.
Aguirre and Chadda wound up creating a new strategic consultancy, WestExec Advisors, whose founding partners were Michèle Flournoy, likely in line to become Biden’s secretary of defense, and Tony Blinken, who has been in Biden’s orbit since the early 2000s and served as Biden’s national security advisor in the first term of the Obama administration. There seems to be little difference between “strategic consulting” and “lobbying,” but the former doesn’t have the same baggage as the latter. As a result, while lobbyists have fallen out of favor, there’s no political concern with filling an administration with a bunch of “strategic consultants” despite their corporate ties.