World update: April 9 2020
Stories from Iraq, Taiwan, Ecuador, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
April 8, 876: The Battle of Dayr al-Aqul
April 8, 1904: France and the United Kingdom sign a package of agreements collectively known as the “Entente Cordiale,” resetting their relationship and ending over 800 years of on again/off again hostility, dating back to the Norman Conquest of England in the 11th century. The agreements included mutual recognition of colonial prerogatives and gave both countries an ally in the face of Germany’s growing prominence. The Entente, expanded to include Russia, was the counterpart to the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, and thus helped draw the battle lines for World War I.
April 9, 1241: The Battle of Legnica
April 9, 1865: Confederate General Robert E. Lee, along with his Army of Northern Virginia, surrenders to Ulysses S. Grant at Appomatox Court House. Though there were still other Confederate armies in the field, Lee’s surrender is generally considered to mark the end of the US Civil War.
A print of the surrender by 19th century American artist Thomas Nast (Wikimedia Commons)
April 9, 2003: The US-led coalition secures formal control of Baghdad, marking an end (in a very technical sense) of both the Battle of Baghdad and the US invasion of Iraq. US President George W. Bush would declare “mission accomplished” on May 1, which is the date most frequently (and hilariously, if you like your humor on the morbid side) offered as the final end of the war. As was pretty apparent at the time but is very apparent now, this was not actually the end of anything, and the Iraq War continued until…well, remind me to come back and update this when it’s over.
COVID-19
Worldometer’s tracker for April 9 has us at 1,603,284 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide (+85,221 since yesterday), 1,151,239 of which are active, with 95,693 reported fatalities (+7,235 since yesterday). There are a couple of global pandemic-related stories to note:
International Monetary Fund chair Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday offered some spoilers for her organization’s next global financial outlook, which will be issued next week. In case you were wondering, it’s not good. The IMF, according to Georgieva, is predicting “the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” with over 170 countries expected to see their economies shrink on a per capita basis in 2020. This downturn is already dwarfing the 2008 financial crash, particularly in its impact on developing nations. Georgieva stressed that she’s not calling for a rush to end lockdown measures, but she is calling for more stimulus and debt forgiveness, which for the head of the IMF is no minor thing.
The World Health Organization says it will need more money to fund its efforts to fight the pandemic. How much more? At least $1 billion, it seems, and perhaps “several billion.” It’s probably unfortunate, then, that Donald Trump has decided to make the WHO the latest in a series of scapegoats meant to divert attention from his administration’s errors in responding to the pandemic. The US is the WHO’s largest single funder and if Trump follows through on his threat to cut that funding—or even if he just refuses to provide additional funding as the WHO is requesting—it’s going to make a bad situation much worse. China will likely step in to fill part of any shortfall, but it’s unclear how much.
At the individual level it appears that there are many comorbidities that can exacerbate COVID-19’s effects—high blood pressure, for example. At the macro level there’s really one: inequality. The contrast between rich and poor in terms of both contracting and surviving the coronavirus has been stark. At the national level this is playing out in terms of wealthier nations’ ability to outspend developing nations when it comes to purchasing medical supplies and protective gear:
As the United States and European Union countries compete to acquire scarce medical equipment to combat the coronavirus, another troubling divide is also emerging, with poorer countries losing out to wealthier ones in the global scrum for masks and testing materials.
Scientists in Africa and Latin America have been told by manufacturers that orders for vital testing kits cannot be filled for months, because the supply chain is in upheaval and almost everything they produce is going to America or Europe. All countries report steep price increases, from testing kits to masks.
The huge global demand for masks, alongside new distortions in the private market, has forced some developing countries to turn to UNICEF for help. Etleva Kadilli, who oversees supplies at the agency, said it was trying to buy 240 million masks to help 100 countries but so far had managed to source only around 28 million.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
19 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (unchanged since yesterday), 2 reported fatalities (unchanged since yesterday)
Unsurprisingly, the Syrian government is rejecting the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons’ new report attributing three 2017 chemical attacks on the town of Lataminah to the Syrian military. Damascus attributed the report to “fabricated allegations” by rebels in northwestern Syria as well as Syria Civil Defense, AKA the “White Helmets.”
Meanwhile, according to The New Arab, Islamic State fighters have captured the town of Sukhnah from the Syrian military. Sukhnah is located in central Syria, east of Palmyra and about a quarter or third of the way from that city to Deir Ezzor. The Syria live map shows only that there have been Russian and Syrian airstrikes in the area but doesn’t have the town in IS hands. IS fighters melted into the central Syrian desert after the “caliphate” crumbled, and while they’ve been capable of guerrilla-style attacks here and there the capture of an entire town is a new development.
YEMEN
No confirmed cases as yet
The Saudi-led coalition instituted its unilateral nationwide ceasefire in Yemen at noon Thursday, but there is still no indication that the Houthi rebels plan to reciprocate. Houthi officials have characterized the ceasefire as a “ploy” intended to curry international favor, while alleging that the coalition is still fighting inside Yemen. The Saudis claim they want to give the United Nations time to organize talks on a permanent end to hostilities in a war that has left Yemen a shambles and has bogged the Saudis down to an extent that they may no longer be able to afford, especially at current oil prices.
IRAQ
1232 confirmed cases (+30), 69 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Adnan al-Zurfi’s dream of serving as Iraqi prime minister came to an end on Thursday when, lacking enough parliamentary support to take office, he withdrew his name from consideration. So Iraqi President Barham Salih nominated a third candidate to succeed Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned in November and technically still serves as caretaker PM but stepped back from that role as well last month. The new prime minister-designate is Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the current head of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service. Like Zurfi he has no apparent political base and he wasn’t chosen by the leading Shiʿa parties, so he’s starting at a disadvantage. But he doesn’t have Zurfi’s ties to the United States, which is a plus, and his well-attended nomination suggests he might be acceptable to parliamentary leadership.
SAUDI ARABIA
3287 confirmed cases (+355), 44 reported fatalities (+3)
OPEC+ (OPEC members plus a group of other large oil producing nations, led by Russia) leaders met virtually on Thursday and seem to have reached at least a tentative agreement on a 10 million barrel per day cut to global oil production. That would end the Saudi-Russian price war that’s sent the global oil market crashing into the $20s per barrel range. It was not enough to arrest the decline in oil prices, however, as the drop in global demand due to the pandemic has outstripped what even a 10 million bpd cut can achieve. And this agreement could still fall apart on Friday, when OPEC+ plans to pitch it to the leaders of the G-20 states in the hopes that other oil producing nations that aren’t part of the expanded OPEC group—chiefly the United States—will agree to make additional cuts. The US is limited in what it can or would be willing to do in this regard, and Donald Trump has suggested that market forces should regulate the amount of shale oil American companies produce—an idea the Russians have rejected.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
484 confirmed cases (+40), 15 reported fatalities (+1)
Islamic State fighters claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on Bagram airbase early Thursday. They fired five rockets onto the facility but caused no casualties. The Taliban denied any involvement.
KASHMIR
6725 confirmed cases (+809), 227 reported fatalities (+49) in India; 4489 confirmed cases (+226), 65 reported fatalities (+4) in Pakistan
Perhaps owing to tensions caused by the Indian government’s move last year to strip Kashmir of its constitutional autonomy, Indian and Pakistani forces have been clashing across the border far more frequently than usual this year. The Indian military says it’s recorded 1197 Pakistani ceasefire violations so far this year, compared with 705 violations by Indian forces as recorded by the Pakistanis. March was especially active, with Indian authorities claiming 411 violations by the Pakistanis. All these claims should be considered dubious since they’re unverifiable, but they do suggest that tensions are running high. On Thursday, the Pakistani army reported that its forces had shot down an Indian reconnaissance drone that crossed into Pakistani airspace. The Indian military hasn’t commented.
TAIWAN
380 confirmed cases (+1), 5 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Donald Trump isn’t the only person who thinks that WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is too cozy with the Chinese government. The Taiwanese government has also accused Tedros of being enthralled to Beijing, mostly because the WHO hasn’t defied Chinese restrictions that block Taipei from playing a more active role in international organizations like the WHO. On Wednesday, tensions worsened when Tedros accused the Taiwanese government of promulgating “racist slurs” and even death threats against him. What he means, apparently, is that Taiwanese officials haven’t forcefully condemned a campaign of slurs and angry rhetoric directed at Tedros from Taiwanese citizens, from people in Hong Kong, and from Chinese dissidents abroad. The Taiwanese government has rejected Tedros’ accusations. The Chinese government also gleefully jumped into the fray, criticizing Taiwan for “venomously attacking the WHO.”
CHINA
81,865 confirmed cases (+63), 3335 reported fatalities (+2) on the mainland; 974 confirmed cases (+13), 2 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Hong Kong
While the Chinese government’s initial response to COVID-19 has come in for significant international criticism, some of it well justified, Oxford’s Kyle Jaros argues that some of the causes underlying China’s errors are probably less nefarious than some of its harshest critics are alleging:
The concerns are manifold. Although health professionals raised alarms about a new pathogen infecting Wuhan residents in late December 2019, action — and critical inaction – on the part of governmental actors at various levels obstructed information flows and delayed a coordinated public health response for nearly a month. Most egregious, regional authorities in Wuhan municipality and Hubei province intimidated would-be whistle-blowers and stymied the timely release of information about the illness, carrying on with large-scale political meetings and holiday festivities despite mounting contagion risks. Similarly problematic were the delays of China’s central leadership in enacting effective control measures and communicating the gravity of the situation internationally and, later, Beijing’s apparent obfuscation of the true scale of disease spread and mortality.
But beyond wrongdoing or recklessness on the part of specific government actors in the early weeks of the outbreak, China’s flawed initial response also reflected built-in biases of governmental structures and decision-making dynamics. On the one hand, these institutional maladies delayed the escalation to the national and international levels of what was, from its very start, much more than a local crisis. On the other hand, these shortcomings hampered public health responses at key subnational levels of government. It is worth considering the impact of these systemic characteristics not just to better understand the origins of the global pandemic but also to gain fresh perspective on how crucial intergovernmental dynamics are in shaping the fight against the coronavirus.
Mostly these dynamics are inherent in the challenge of administering an extremely large state with a highly centralized government, where the need for regional or local management and the desire to funnel all decision making through Beijing aren’t always able to co-exist.
JAPAN
4979 confirmed cases (+312), 99 reported fatalities (+5)
The Japanese and Tokyo prefecture governments have settled a dispute over which business ought to be closed under the region’s new coronavirus-related state of emergency. The Tokyo government has pushed for as broad a range of business closures as possible, but under pressure from Prime Minister Abe Shinzō’s desire to minimize economic damage it has agreed to leave some businesses open, like department and furniture stores. Abe has been criticized for his slowness to adopt containment measures even as the number of cases in Tokyo has been spiking.
AFRICA
CHAD
11 confirmed cases (+1), no reported fatalities
The Chadian army says it’s killed upwards of 1000 Boko Haram fighters in an operation in the Lake Chad region that began on March 31. It’s lost 52 of its own soldiers in the process. It undertook the operation in retaliation for a Boko Haram attack in that region last month that killed almost 100 Chadian soldiers. In the process Chadian soldiers have claimed two of the group’s regional bases and have occupied border territory in Niger and Nigeria that they say they’ll relinquish to the armed forces of those countries.
BOTSWANA
13 confirmed cases (+7), 1 reported fatality (unchanged)
The whole Botswanan parliament was quarantined due to COVID-19 on Thursday, including President Mokgweetsi Masisi (the Botswanan president is both head of state and head of government). Apparently a health worker who has been screening parliamentarians for the coronavirus tested positive for it herself overnight.
EUROPE
It took another day of wrangling and a threat from Italian (143,626 confirmed cases, +4204; 18,279 reported fatalities, +610) Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, but Eurogroup finance ministers did come to a deal on Thursday around a common fiscal response to the pandemic’s economic fallout:
A messy compromise to unlock €500bn (£438bn) of EU support for countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic has been struck after Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, warned that the existence of the bloc was at stake.
EU finance ministers on a video conference call struck a deal late on Thursday after the Netherlands shifted on a demand for “economic surveillance” of countries benefiting from €240bn of credit lines via the European stability mechanism, a bailout fund for struggling member states.
Italy and Spain have in turn accepted a delay on agreement on so-called “coronabonds” that would allow member states to raise funds on the same terms from the financial markets. The issue of a “recovery fund” yet to be fleshed out will be put to the EU’s heads of state and government at a future summit.
A Dutch (21,762 confirmed cases, +1213; 2396 reported fatalities, +148) demand that any COVID-19 line of credit come with intrusive oversight and painful austerity attached was modified so that only funds that are not put toward the immediate response to the pandemic will be subject to those constraints. This compromise undoubtedly created another fight down the road about what constitutes spending on the pandemic versus spending on something else, but that’s a problem for another day. As is, apparently, the much bigger fight over the “coronabond” idea.
RUSSIA
10,131 confirmed cases (+1459), 76 reported fatalities (+13)
With Moscow under COVID-19 lockdown, Russian authorities are dealing with a new problem—hundreds of thousands of people getting out of the city and potentially spreading the virus elsewhere. The challenge, aside from the fact that Russia isn’t under lockdown so there’s no legal mechanism for forcing those people to remain in place, is that many of them took off for their country/vacation homes. The towns and villages to which they went depend on traffic from Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major cities for their economic survival, so they can’t easily bar those folks from entry.
UNITED KINGDOM
65,077 confirmed cases (+4344), 7978 reported fatalities (+881)
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is out of intensive care. Presumably this means his COVID-19 symptoms are finally alleviating, though he’s still in the hospital under observation.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
4965 confirmed cases (+515), 272 reported fatalities (+30)
World Politics Review’s Frida Ghitis looks at the example of Ecuador and what it suggests in terms of COVID-19’s impact on the developing world:
Ecuador’s Guayas province has emerged as ground zero for the coronavirus in South America, with more cases reported there than in many Latin American countries as a whole. Its capital, the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, is the country’s most populous metropolitan area, but its caseload is far out of proportion to its size. It is home to most of the country’s diagnosed cases and deaths; the smell of death fills the city’s air. There are unique reasons why the pandemic has struck Guayas with such force, but those reasons offer no solace to the rest of the developing world. Ecuador, Guayas and Guayaquil all have characteristics that are easy to find in other countries. Their tribulations are an ominous sign of what lies ahead in the next phase of this global crisis.
In the weeks since the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the world, much of the attention has focused on the Northern Hemisphere—from China’s initial response, to the frantic efforts of Italy and the rest of Western Europe, and then New York and the rest of the United States, to deal with the onslaught of the disease. But it is in the Global South where this pandemic is likely to gouge its deepest wounds.
Ecuador is not one of those countries where demagogues played politics with the coronavirus. For the most part, the national response has been serious and science-driven. But Ecuador has struggled to muster the resources needed to confront a challenge of this magnitude, making it much more difficult to surmount than in the countries where the pandemic struck earlier.
NICARAGUA
7 confirmed cases (+1), 1 reported fatality (unchanged)
Something odd may be happening in Nicaragua, where nobody has seen President Daniel Ortega since March 12, and speculation is starting to grow that he may be ill or possibly even dead. The government insists that Ortega is alive, and the simplest explanation is that he’s decided to quarantine himself to avoid COVID-19, since he’s not in great health anyway and has a number of conditions that could leave him particularly vulnerable to the virus. Only a handful of COVID-19 cases have been detected in Nicaragua but that’s probably due more to a lack of testing than anything else. Ortega’s government has not adopted any significant containment measures.
UNITED STATES
468,566 confirmed cases (+33,536), 16,691 reported fatalities (+1900)
Finally, TomDispatch’s Danny Sjursen looks at the West Point “mafia” that now controls Donald Trump’s State Department and his Pentagon:
Every West Point class votes on an official motto. Most are then inscribed on their class rings. Hence, the pejorative West Point label "ring knocker." (As legend has it, at military meetings a West Pointer “need only knock his large ring on the table and all Pointers present are obliged to rally to his point of view.”)Last August, the class of 2023 announced theirs: “Freedom Is Not Free.” Mine from the class of 2005 was “Keeping Freedom Alive.” Each class takes pride in its motto and, at least theoretically, aspires to live according to its sentiments, while championing the accomplishments of fellow graduates.
But some cohorts do stand out. Take the class of 1986 ("Courage Never Quits"). As it happens, both Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are members of that very class, as are a surprisingly wide range of influential leaders in Congress, corporate America, the Pentagon, the defense industry, lobbying firms, Big Pharma, high-end financial services, and even security-consulting firms. Still, given their striking hawkishness on the subject of American war-making, Esper and Pompeo rise above the rest. Even in a pandemic, they are as good as their class motto. When it comes to this country’s wars, neither of them ever quits.