World update: April 27-28 2019

Stories from Iran, Spain, and more

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MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched “attacks” (it’s unclear how many) against Syrian government forces in Aleppo province on Saturday morning, killing at least 22 soldiers according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. These attacks definitely violate the Idlib area ceasefire (likewise, reports have Russia and the Syrian military bombarding rebel-held parts of Idlib and Hama provinces over the weekend as well) and make it clear that Turkey, which is supposed to be enforcing that ceasefire, hasn’t been able to control HTS. But despite that, fortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin told an audience in Beijing on Saturday that at this point there are no plans for a full-scale Syrian/Russian assault on Idlib. He described a potential offensive as “inadvisable” because of the large number of displaced Syrians who have crowded into the province.

The displaced persons camp at Rukban in southern Syria, meanwhile, is beginning to empty out due to lack of food. The camp has been neglected by the United States, whose nearby military base at Tanf is the reason many Syrians decided to locate there in order to escape the Syrian government, and it’s been effectively besieged by Damascus (with Russian help), which has been preventing humanitarian aid from reaching the camp. Conditions have finally reached the point where people cannot remain in the camp and are returning to their homes in government-controlled areas.

IRAN

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested via state media on Sunday that not only could Iran quit the 2015 nuclear deal over the Trump administration’s decision to violate it and restore the sanctions that the agreement lifted, but that it could go so far as to quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which it has been party since the treaty’s inception in 1970. That’s a huge threat, if you can call it that (I’m not sure it was, but I’ll get to that in a second). But if it is a threat it rings hollow for a couple of reasons. For one thing, Iran has made the same threat before and, well, here we are. For another, quitting the NPT would be an extremely provocative move that would be gleefully welcomed by pro-war forces in Washington as proof that Iran intends to manufacture nuclear weapons, or in other words the excuse they need to justify a major attack on Iran. If Iran intended to actually manufacture nukes, publicly quitting the NPT would be perhaps the worst way to go about doing so.

It would also cause a major political upheaval inside Iran, because it would contradict everything Iran’s religious leaders have said for 20+ years about the immorality and un-Islamic nature of nuclear weapons. That’s a lot to risk on a step that gains Iran nothing but a war with a much more powerful country—a war in which it’s not very likely that Iranian allies like Russia and China would support Tehran, because it would put them in the position of defending nuclear proliferation. That, plus the way Zarif was quoted (he said “the country’s authorities are considering” leaving the NPT), suggests he wasn’t making a threat so much as he was describing the possibility of a more radical element gaining power in Tehran—as conditions inside Iran worsen due to sanctions, and the country’s politics respond to those conditions—and doing the kind of thing that radicals do.

ASIA

SRI LANKA

Sri Lankan authorities on Friday raided the headquarters of National Thowheeth Jamaʿath, the main local group believed responsible for last Sunday’s series of terrorist attacks targeting churches and hotels across the country. At least 15 people were reportedly killed during the raid. The next day, the Sri Lankan government officially outlawed NTJ along with another local Islamist group, Jamathei Millathu Ibrahim. Little is known for certain about either of these groups, but especially little is known about Jamathei Millathu Ibrahim. NTJ founder Zahran Hashim was apparently one of the suicide bombers killed last Sunday, and police believe his father and two brothers were among those killed during the Friday raid.

INDONESIA

Indonesian elections are large affairs, but the news that 272 Indonesian election workers have died of fatigue-related conditions while counting ballots highlights not only how large an affair this year’s vote was, but also what little regard Indonesian electoral officials have for their employees. Nearly 1900 election workers have fallen ill, also due to fatigue. Official results are due to be announced in mid May.

CHINA

The Chinese government announced that it reached some $64 billion in new Belt and Road Initiative deals during the Belt and Road Forum, which concluded on Sunday. It signed memoranda of understanding with Barbados, Italy, Jamaica, Luxembourg, and Peru. Xi Jinping and company spent the week assuring forum participants that the BRI would definitely take debt sustainability and environmental concerns into account in designing its projects.

We’ll see, I guess

AFRICA

SUDAN

Sudan’s ruling military junta and the leaders of its ongoing protest movement have reportedly reached agreement on forming a joint civilian-military governing council. At this point it seems like they’ve reached agreement in principle and still need to work out the details, but this is definitely a big step toward ending Sudan’s protests and maybe putting the country on a path toward civilian governance. The council would appoint a civilian caretaker government that would then shepherd the country through a transition to a new election. The junta had previously offered to appoint a civilian government while retaining “sovereign authority” for itself, so this would represent a significant concession on their part.

LIBYA

Forces allied with Libya’s internationally recognized government appear to have launched a counterattack against Khalifa Haftar’s “Libyan National Army” and are reportedly driving it back, slowly, from the southern outskirts of Tripoli. If the pro-government forces continue making progress it could hamper the possibility of a ceasefire, despite United Nations efforts to negotiate one. A ceasefire at this point would still leave the LNA having won a significant amount of territory since its Tripoli offensive began earlier this month. The government may try to press its advantage to win some of that ground back before it’s willing to stop fighting.

On Saturday, the LNA sent a warship steaming into eastern Libya’s Ras Lanuf oil port. Haftar may begin pumping and exporting oil for himself—Libya’s National Oil Company has remained mostly neutral in this conflict, but its eastern operations are under his control and there are some friendly regional governments (Egypt, the UAE, etc.) who might be willing to help Haftar sell his own oil.

BENIN

Al Jazeera reports on Benin’s parliamentary election taking place on Sunday. Results aren’t available, but that’s probably immaterial since the Beninese government has disqualified the opposition from running:

SOMALIA

US Africa Command says that one of its airstrikes killed three ISIS fighters in the autonomous Somali region of Puntland on Friday. The strikes hit a couple of wells near a village so the possibility of civilian casualties seems fairly high. But of course Africa Command isn’t telling.

EUROPE

SWITZERLAND

The head of Switzerland’s SGB labor confederation on Sunday declared the current draft of a treaty governing Swiss-European Union relations to be “dead” and called for negotiations to be reset. Switzerland is not an EU member but currently has dozens of agreements with Brussels controlling various aspects of their relationship. This treaty would supersede those agreements but its terms—which would have Switzerland adopting EU trade regulations and free movement principles—have met opposition from a wide range of Swiss power brokers.

SPAIN

Spain held its parliamentary election on Sunday, and the results appear to have been roughly in line with pre-election polling. The ruling Socialist party and leftist Podemos look to have finished 11 seats shy of a majority, putting them well within range of forming a governing coalition with the support of one or more small regional parties. Which doesn’t mean talks over forming such a coalition will be easy. Catalan and Basque regional parties are expected to make substantial demands in exchange for their support, so the Socialists will need to decide how far they’re willing to go to avoid rerunning the election.

Alternatively, the Socialists could negotiate a centrist coalition with the center-right Ciudadanos party, but Ciudadanos has already ruled out such a coalition and party boss Albert Rivera declared himself the new leader of the opposition on Sunday evening. That’s going to be a little awkward, because the leader of the right-wing People’s Party, Pablo Casado, also declared himself the new leader of the opposition on Sunday evening. And Casado’s party appears to have won more seats, so he probably has the stronger claim. Anyway, a Ciudadanos “grand coalition” would probably make it difficult for the Socialists to fulfill key elements of their agenda. So that’s a long shot.

The downside here is that the far-right Vox party won 24 seats, marking the first time a far-right party has entered Spain’s parliament since Francisco Franco did everybody the favor of dying in 1975. Fun fact: the far right Vox, which institutionally hates Muslims, is apparently being bankrolled by the Mujahedin-e Khalq, the leftist (ostensibly) and very cultish Iranian opposition group that’s been throwing it’s money around to influence lots of Western governments over the past few years. Strange bedfellows.

UNITED KINGDOM

New polling indicates that a majority of the British public—including a plurality of Conservative voters—thinks that the Brexit referendum was a bad idea and shouldn’t have been held. I can’t imagine why. Another new survey finds that support for Scottish independence is at 49 percent, up from 45 percent in a similar poll taken last June. The Scottish National Party is planning a major push for another independence referendum to coincide with the UK’s departure from the EU, whenever that might take place.

AMERICAS

VENEZUELA

Opposition leader Juan Guaidó had to cancel a planned anti-Nicolás Maduro rally that was to have taken place in the city of Barquisimeto on Sunday. He blamed the “dictatorship” for preventing him from getting to the city in time for the event, but it’s not clear what exactly happened. Guaidó is calling for a nationwide protest on May 1.