World update: April 23 2020
Stories from Yemen, Cambodia, Italy, and more
Wishing a generous and auspicious Ramadan to those who are fasting!
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
April 22, 1809: Napoleon’s army defeats the Austrians under Archduke Charles at the Battle of Eckmühl, in Bavaria. The victory is considered a turning point in the the 1809 War of the Fifth Coalition, because it blunted Austria’s invasion of Bavaria, which had caught the French leader somewhat by surprise, and allowed him to go on the offensive by invading Austria.
April 22, 1948: In one of the last major engagements before the civil war in Palestine turned into the Arab-Israeli War, the Jewish Haganah paramilitary organization captures the Arab sections of the port city of Haifa from the Palestinians. Haifa was one of six largely mixed cities the Haganah captured between the start of April and the middle of May—by the end of May, between voluntary flight and involuntary expulsions the number of Arabs living in those cities collectively dropped from an estimated 177,000 to an estimated 13,000.
April 23, 1817: Under their leader Miloš Obrenović, a group of Serbian rebels in the village of Takovo declare independence from the Ottoman Empire, setting off the Second Serbian Uprising. After a conflict that lasted until late July 1817, the rebels were able to win de facto independence from the Ottomans, who recognized their autonomous state as the “Principality of Serbia.” The Serbians finally gained full independence at the Congress of Berlin in 1878.
Serbian painter Paja Jovanović commemorated this event in The Uprising at Takovo, painted in 1898 (Wikimedia Commons)
April 23, 1985: In what’s considered one of the most catastrophically bad business decisions of all time, the Coca-Cola Company introduces a new formula for its flagship beverage. Although the new formula had outperformed the old one in taste tests, the move was so overwhelmingly unpopular that the company revived the old formula a mere three months later, first as “Coca-Cola Classic” and later, after it had phased out the new formula, as just “Coca-Cola” again. The switch seemed so baffling that it prompted a plethora of conspiracy theories, ranging from a ploy to boost sales to a way to disguise changes in the original formula (a switch from sugar to high fructose corn syrup and/or the removal of its remaining coca components).
COVID-19
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for April 23:
2,716,806 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (+85,021 since yesterday)
1,780,865 active cases
190,528 reported fatalities (+6601 since yesterday)
In today’s pandemic news:
Oil prices ticked up again on Thursday, with both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks getting a bit of a boost—though both are still trading very low, with WTI around $16.50/barrel and Brent around $22/barrel. It would seem that Donald Trump’s threat to have his navy start shooting at Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf got people concerned about a US-Iran war and that caused prices to go up. So…mission accomplished? Regardless of Trump’s possibly inadvertent efforts to prop up the market, it’s clear that the oil industry is undergoing a seismic upheaval. At Foreign Policy, historians Nicholas Mulder and Adam Tooze argue that, among other effects, heavily dependent oil producers may find it much harder to borrow internationally using their oil assets as collateral. On top of the lost revenue from oil exports, an inability to borrow could be thoroughly devastating to those economies.
Africa has seen a 43 percent increase in coronavirus cases over the past week, from around 16,000 to around 26,000. And that’s almost certainly an undercount, given the inadequate testing regimens in most African countries. Many African governments have imposed lockdown measures as a precaution, despite very limited information on the actual course of the pandemic in those countries. But lockdowns must by nature be temporary, and that’s especially true in impoverished regions where an economic freeze really could be as deadly as the virus. Without better data it’s impossible to know whether those lockdowns were imposed prematurely, or how long they need to be in place before some reopening can occur.
Making matters worse, the World Health Organization says that malaria deaths in Africa could roughly double this year, to around 769,000, as the lockdowns interrupt mitigation efforts and as the pandemic itself overwhelms meager heath care resources.
The World Trade Organization says that some 80 countries have banned the export of masks and other protective gear since the pandemic struck. Of those, 72 are WTO members, but only 13 of them have informed the organization as they’re required to do. The WTO allows for temporary export restrictions to address critical shortages, but by nature it generally frowns on these sorts of things. Supply chains have already been disrupted by the decline in air traffic and these export bans are exacerbating that problem.
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
1 confirmed coronavirus case (unchanged)
No reported fatalities
The pro-government coalition’s two week ceasefire expired on Thursday without an extension or even any real progress toward a more permanent ceasefire. In reality it never went into effect, as the Houthis rejected the whole thing as a political stunt and have kept fighting, especially in Marib province. The Saudi-led bloc may be faring worse than ever at this point, as the Houthis are reportedly close to attacking Marib city and taking control over the whole province. That would limit pro-government forces to southern Yemen and to the area along the Saudi-Yemeni border, while leaving the rest of northern Yemen in Houthi control. The Saudis viewed the pandemic as a way to end the conflict without appearing to capitulate, and it’s unclear how they’re going to respond now that their gambit has failed.
OMAN
1716 confirmed cases (+102)
9 reported fatalities (+1)
Although he’s only in his fourth month of rule and it’s too early to draw any firm conclusions, the Arab Center’s Imad Harb expects Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to maintain, rather than try to change, the policies of his predecessor, Sultan Qaboos:
In the personalistic nature of leadership in the Arab world, the ouster or death of a king, sultan, emir, or president is tantamount to the inauguration of a new era in the life of a nation. Such was the case following the removal of many Arab leaders over the decades and the deaths of Gamal Abdel-Nasser of Egypt (1970) and King Faisal of Saudi Arabia (1975), among others. This was not so in Oman, however, following the passing of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said, who died after leading the sultanate for half a century after overthrowing his father in 1970. While his death ushers in a new phase in Oman’s national life, it is unlikely to lead to serious changes in the way the country tries to manage its domestic affairs and its regional or international relations.
Yet, conditions inside and outside the country may challenge the new sultan, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, in sustaining the same approach that prevailed during his predecessor’s reign. Now in his fourth month as leader, Haitham may find that his biggest challenge is in how to manage very difficult economic circumstances during a global slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic—and all in the midst of regional uncertainty and chaos. Consequently, over the next few months Oman is likely to exercise much caution in how it addresses pressing problems. At the same time, the new sultan may still find it advantageous to maintain the tried and true maneuvers the departed leader had practiced for over half a century of unfettered rule.
SAUDI ARABIA
13,930 confirmed cases (+1158)
121 reported fatalities (+7)
Unlike many smaller oil producing countries, Saudi Arabia has built up enough capital to ride out a period of low oil prices, but “low” is a relative thing and the current oil glut has driven prices below what the Saudis may have foreseen, with only a gradual price increase expected over the next couple of years. This has put the Saudi economy in some jeopardy, with unemployment expected to rise significantly, the Saudi economy expected to contract this year, and the kingdom expected to run a deficit approaching 15 percent of that GDP this year. So far the Saudi government hasn’t considered major spending cuts and is actually injecting stimulus into the economy, for example by offering to pay 60 percent of salaries if companies don’t lay off their employees. But Mohammad bin Salman’s big plans to diversify away from oil are going to be hindered without significant oil revenues with which to finance them.
IRAN
87,026 confirmed cases (+1030)
5481 reported fatalities (+90)
The Iranian foreign ministry summoned the Swiss ambassador on Thursday to complain about Donald Trump’s threat to fire on Iranian naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. When I saw this I have to admit I felt some sadness for the Swiss ambassador, Markus Leitner, who has nothing to do with the Trump administration but has to answer for Trump’s buffoonery because Switzerland manages US interests in Iran. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami warned that his naval forces would attack the US if threatened, and now that everybody has puffed out their chests hopefully tensions will subside.
ASIA
ARMENIA
1523 confirmed cases (+50)
24 reported fatalities (unchanged)
Though it hasn’t had quite the desired effect in terms of settling conflicts in other parts of the world, one place in which the coronavirus does seem to have calmed things down is in the Caucuses. Violence along the Armenian-Azerbaijani (1548 confirmed cases, +30; 20 reported fatalities, unchanged) border is down relative to its usual springtime levels, and that’s with international peacekeepers taking their own pandemic break from operations. The Armenian government has publicly agreed with the United Nations’ call for a global ceasefire. Azerbaijan’s government has not, but at this point its actions suggest it’s not looking to cause any trouble either.
CAMBODIA
122 confirmed cases (unchanged)
No reported fatalities
Alongside many other authoritarian leaders around the world, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen is finding the pandemic to be a useful weapon to wield against his political opponents:
Initially reluctant to respond to the coronavirus, Hun Sen is now using the pandemic to accelerate the crackdown against his perceived enemies. The human rights organization Licadho has recorded 26 cases of people arrested for incitement for allegedly spreading “fake news” about COVID-19, including a 14-year-old girl, as of April 10. For those arrested and their families, getting clarity about the charges from the corrupt Cambodian police force is tricky. The family of one detainee, opposition activist and teacher Keo Thai, told Radio Free Asia that he had been taken into custody without a warrant and they had “no idea” why he had been arrested. (The police said it was for conspiracy to commit treason.)
In most of these cases, detainees have been arrested and released: a way to scare others into keeping criticism of the Cambodian government’s anti-coronavirus strategy to themselves, said Phil Robertson, the Asia director for Human Rights Watch. The exception to the detain-and-release strategy appears to be if the person arrested is a member of the now-outlawed opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party—around one-third of recent arrests, according to Licadho. “The whole crackdown is serving a wider political agenda to persecute and ultimately destroy any formal political opposition to his rule,” Robertson said.
CHINA
82,804 confirmed cases (+6) on the mainland, 1036 confirmed cases (+2) in Hong Kong
4632 reported fatalities (unchanged) on the mainland, 4 reported fatalities (unchanged) in Hong Kong
No doubt looking to score some points on the back of Donald Trump’s decision to freeze and maybe eliminate US funding for the WHO, the Chinese government on Thursday pledged $30 million in additional funds to the organization. China still pays a relative pittance to the WHO when compared with the annual US contribution and the size of the Chinese economy. Beijing is resisting a push from Australia to increase the WHO’s authority to enter a country when there are signs of a pandemic breaking out, calling it “political manipulation and interference.” For its part, the Trump administration is starting to talk about permanently eliminating that WHO funding, instead of potentially restoring it after an investigation. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggested the US could create an alternative agency to do the WHO’s job, which sounds like an extremely bad idea but what do I know?
The Trump administration’s main complaint about the WHO is that it relied for too long on the Chinese government for information about the pandemic when the Chinese government was deliberately, in the administration’s telling, suppressing the full extent of the outbreak. But there are less sinister explanations for a theoretical Chinese undercount. A new study from researchers at Hong Kong University suggests that Chinese authorities undercounted the early extent of their coronavirus cases by a factor of four. The researchers say that under the guidelines that were eventually adopted for categorizing a coronavirus infection, the 55,000 infections China reported as of February 20 would likely have been more than 200,000. Again this isn’t the result of deliberate nefarious manipulation, but of legitimate changes in the way cases were diagnosed, such as might have happened in whichever country had been first to confront this virus.
AFRICA
ALGERIA
3007 confirmed cases (+97)
407 reported fatalities (+5)
The Arab Center’s Daniel Brumberg looks at how the pandemic may change political realities in Algeria:
Will COVID-19 change these realities? Like their cohorts in powerful positions around the world, Arab leaders are using the coronavirus pandemic to increase political control. This crisis, however, has unique features that could complicate efforts to defend autocracy, creating both headaches and opportunities. What is at stake now is not only regimes but myriad state institutions whose mission should be to ensure a basic level of economic, personal, and human security for their citizens. The nightmare facing many Arab leaders is that the rapid spread of COVID-19 might outpace their capacity to adapt state institutions to an unprecedented and dangerous threat.
Algeria provides a telling example of the challenges posed by the coronavirus where, as of April 21, 2,811 cases of infection and 392 deaths have been reported. The virus arrived just as Algeria was about to mark a full year of weekly street protests; as the anniversary of the Hirak movement, the protesting group’s political future was unclear. That uncertainty had much to do with the regime’s shrewd decision to tolerate rather than repress the protesters. But COVID-19 seemed to remove any uncertainty about the regime’s calculations. Seizing on the undeniable—if useful—imperative of enforcing social isolation, and gradually imposing lockdowns on different sectors and areas of the country, Algeria finally declared a national lockdown on April 5. This gave authorities a range of powers, including the right to ban all streets protests. As for the Hirak movement, its forced retreat into the uncertain sanctuary of home and family will weaken an already weak hand. Nevertheless, some Algerian activists also see in this crisis a chance to create the kind of wider political strategy and capacity that Hirak has thus far failed to forge.
GUINEA-BISSAU
50 confirmed cases (unchanged)
No reported fatalities
The Economic Community of West African States on Thursday acknowledged Umaro Sissoco Embaló as the winner of Guinea-Bissau’s December 29 presidential runoff. Runner-up Domingos Simões Pereira has challenged the results of that runoff, alleging fraud, but that challenge has hit a dead end in the court system and Embaló declared himself president in February. At the time, interestingly enough, ECOWAS condemned Embaló’s move, and it didn’t explain its change of heart in today’s announcement. The bloc also called for constitutional reform in Guinea-Bissau, with changes to be determined via a referendum within six months.
MALI
309 confirmed cases (+16)
21 reported fatalities (+4)
Gunmen on motorcycles attacked several villages in central Mali on Tuesday, killing at least 12 people. There’s no confirmation as to the identity of the attackers but it’s believed they were Fulani militia fighters. The Fulani are predominantly Muslim, and so they are often identified with Islamist violence perpetrated by groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The tension that creates intensifies long-standing discords between the pastoralist Fulani and their settled farming neighbors to create a combustible inter-communal mix in which violent attacks like this are becoming ever more frequent.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
377 confirmed cases (+18)
25 reported fatalities (unchanged)
At least 14 members of the separatist Bundu dia Kongo sect were killed in a clash with police in Kongo-Central province on Wednesday. Bundu dia Kongo, also known as Bundu dia Mayala, is a Kongolese nationalist group that wants to restore the traditional Kongolese state that once covered parts of the DRC, the Republic of the Congo, and Angola.
LESOTHO
No confirmed cases
The folks who announced earlier this week that scandal-plagued Lesotho Prime Minister Thomas Thabane had agreed to a “dignified” exit from office, rather than risking civil violence just to remain in power for another few months, apparently forgot to let Thabane know. He’s still refusing to quit, rejecting a deal that was negotiated between elements in his government and mediators from South Africa. And his own ABC party seems to be split over what to do about their leader, who’s suspected of involvement in the 2017 murder of his former wife, which is complicating efforts to force him out.
EUROPE
ITALY
189,973 confirmed cases (+2646)
25,549 reported fatalities (+464)
European Union leaders agreed on Thursday to a bailout package that, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, could unlock as much as one trillion euros in investment. The details are unclear and in reality may not yet be in place, which would make this agreement tentative at best. But Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, whose country has been among the hardest hit by the pandemic and who has been among the loudest voices criticizing the lack of EU solidarity to date, seemed pleased with the development. The recovery fund is sorely needed, with indices suggesting that the eurozone countries are heading into a whopping recession.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
880,204 confirmed cases (+31,487)
49,845 reported fatalities (+2325)
Though its consensus is that the novel coronavirus is a naturally-occurring pathogen and was not manufactured as a biological weapon, the US national security community is “more forcefully investigating the possibility that adversaries could use” it as such. This is definitely a legitimate concern and not the act of a bloated defense establishment that’s suddenly concerned it might lose some of its hundreds of billions of dollars in annual funding to programs that address non-military threats like pandemics and climate change. The Pentagon wants you to know that bad evildoers might use the coronavirus to KILL YOU AND EVERYONE YOU’VE EVER CARED ABOUT, so you should be VERY SCARED and CONTINUE TO GIVE THEM THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY, or perhaps EVEN MORE MONEY because this is ALL REALLY SCARY NOW THAT WE’VE EXPLAINED IT THIS WAY, don’t you think? Seriously there’s no evidence that this is happening, but stop thinking about that and just cough up the dough, OK?
Finally, with November’s presidential election looking like a choice between the incumbent who’s destroying the international order and a challenger who basically just wants to reset things to 2015, Stephen Walt wonders if restoring the familiar old “liberal hegemony” approach to foreign policy can actually be salvaged:
Given where we are today, does it matter whether a more sophisticated version of liberal hegemony might have succeeded? In fact, this issue is of paramount importance, because plenty of people are still convinced that trying to create a U.S.-led, liberal world order was the right goal and that the United States just needs to learn from past mistakes and do it better and smarter in the future. Defenders include unrepentant hawks such as Eric Edelman and Ray Takeyh, who think what the Middle East needs is even more U.S.-led regime change, but also liberal academics such as G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney, who believe the liberal order remains surprisingly resilient. Other proponents of this view are dedicated policy wonks such as Jake Sullivan, who thinks the problem is not the United States’ basic strategy but rather the fact that Americans are increasingly skeptical of it, and one sees similar impulses in the writings of Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and other defenders of an expansive U.S. role. If former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November—and, to be clear, I hope he does—the apostles of U.S. primacy and its “indispensable” global role will be back in the saddle, and we are likely to see at least a partial attempt to turn the clock back to the halcyon days when the United States was actively trying to create a global liberal order.
Let’s give this view the benefit of every doubt. Imagine that you could travel back in time to 1992, with full knowledge of all the mistakes that have been made since then. Then imagine that you still wanted to create a liberal world order, while avoiding all the missteps that were made over the past quarter-century. What would you do differently, and would this new approach work?
Walt’s conclusion is “no,” in case you’re wondering.