World update: April 21 2020
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Libya, Venezuela, and more
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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 20, 1752: A small battle south of the city (village at the time) of Shwebo marks the start of the Konbaung–Hanthawaddy War, which helped consolidate the modern nation of Myanmar. An “army” (of around 40 men) belonging to the nascent Konbaung dynasty, under its founder Alaungpaya, defeated a small military unit detached by the southern Hanthawaddy kingdom to pacify the region. The war ended with a Konbaung victory that reunited upper and lower (northern and southern) Myanmar (Burma if you prefer) under a Bamar ruling family and marked the final time that the Mon people of southern Myanmar tried to establish an independent state.
April 21, 43 BC: In the followup to April 14’s Battle of Forum Gallorum, Mark Antony’s army is again defeated by a consular army led by Aulus Hirtius with the support of Octavia at the Battle of Mutina. Antony decided after this defeat to lift his siege of Mutina, which he’d ostensibly undertaken in order to kill its governor, Decimus Brutus, who was one of Julius Caesar’s assassins. He set about amassing a huge army of Caesarian loyalists. Decimus Brutus wound up fleeing east to join Brutus and Cassius, but was captured and killed by allies of Antony on the way. Conveniently for Octavian, Hirtius died during the battle, and when his fellow consul Pansa died the following day of wounds suffered at Forum Gallorum, Octavian was left to claim credit for the victory uncontested. The newly empowered Octavian soon turned on the Senate and later allied with Antony under the framework of the Second Triumvirate.
April 21, 1526: The First Battle of Panipat
April 21, 1802 (probably): A Saudi-Wahhabi army/mob sacks the city of Karbala.
COVID-19
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for April 21:
2,555,748 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (+75,245 since yesterday)
1,688,063 active cases
177,459 reported fatalities (+7062 since yesterday)
In today’s pandemic-related news:
When West Texas Intermediate futures for May started trading at somewhere below negative $37 per barrel on Monday, there was some reason to think perhaps the situation wasn’t as dire as it appeared. June WTI futures were still trading at around $22/barrel, and Brent crude was trading in the mid-$20s. Well, funny story. On Tuesday, June WTI futures dropped to below $15/barrel, and Brent crude is trading below $20/barrel. A little more dire than on Monday. Big oil producers are moving as fast as they ever have to reduce production, except for one: the United States. For some reason shale extraction is still going strong despite what should be unprofitable prices. US regulators could try imposing production cuts, but power dynamics being what they are those regulators aren’t really calling the shots here.
The United Nations World Food Program estimates that the economic collapse caused by the pandemic will put some 265 million people around the world at risk of acute food insecurity this year, more than double the number who were in that position in 2019. The number of chronically hungry people is likewise expected to roughly double into the 1.6 billion range. A combination of increased poverty and rising food prices is expected to do most of the damage, with non-pandemic factors, like East Africa’s huge locust problem, also contributing to the crisis. The WFP says it needs around $350 million urgently to start addressing the problem, but it’s received only about a quarter of that from donors.
The World Health Organization says it can find no evidence suggesting that the coronavirus was man-made, arguing against conspiracy theories that it was the product of biological weapons research being done at China’s Wuhan virology laboratory. This doesn’t entirely dispel the notion that the virus emerged from the lab, which has among other things been studying bat coronaviruses, but there’s no particular reason to favor that scenario over any other.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
42 confirmed coronavirus cases (+3)
3 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says that Monday’s Israeli missile strike on a military outpost near Palmyria killed at least nine pro-government soldiers, six of whom were not Syrian. At least some of those six were linked to Hezbollah. Syrian state media reported on Monday that the country’s air defenses intercepted the strike, but as I said yesterday those initial reports from Syrian media tend to exaggerate the capabilities of the Syrian military.
YEMEN
1 confirmed case (unchanged)
No reported fatalities
An anonymous State Department official told Reuters on Tuesday that the US has put together a “substantial” coronavirus aid package for Yemen. Sadly, since Donald Trump has unfriended the World Health Organization, there’s no agency working in Yemen to which to send the package. There’s more than a whiff of “my girlfriend lives in Canada so you wouldn’t know her” in this story, but assuming it’s accurate there’s really no way to know what the Trump administration considers “substantial” as concerns the Yemeni people. It could be a bunch of vouchers for half off your next visit to the Minute Clinic.
LEBANON
677 confirmed cases (unchanged)
21 reported fatalities (unchanged)
The Lebanese parliament held its first session on Tuesday since the country went into lockdown last month. In order to allow for proper social distancing measures, they opted to meet in the spacious UNESCO Palace in Beirut, where lawmakers could spread out. The legislature’s first order of business was legalizing medical cannabis farming, something Lebanese leaders hope will be a major new revenue source both in terms of exports and in terms of transitioning the Bekaa Valley’s already-substantial cannabis farming industry from the black market (for hashish) to the legal and therefore taxable market (for medical use).
The parliament has several other items on its agenda for this session, including a “general amnesty” for some reason. It’s partly the amnesty that brought Lebanon’s other major public institution, anti-government protesters, back out onto the streets to commemorate parliament’s reopening. The protesters observed proper social distancing procedures by driving in a convoy rather than marching. Many also complained that the lockdown has prevented them from working and therefore obtaining food, and whatever aid has been provided by the government has not been nearly adequate to the need.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
13,942 confirmed cases (+229) in Israel, 334 confirmed cases (+5) in Palestine
184 reported fatalities (+7) in Israel, 4 reported fatalities (+1) in Palestine
More details have emerged regarding what seems like a highly intractable national “unity” government that Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz have cooked up for themselves. It includes an absolutely monstrous 34 seat cabinet, many of its offices apparently invented just to give Gantz and Netanyahu parity in the number of ministries each controls. And when I say “controls,” I mean Gantz will get his half of the cabinet and Netanyahu will get his half and neither will have any direct authority over the other’s ministries. Each will serve as the other’s deputy prime minister, with Gantz taking that role for the 18 months during which Netanyahu will serve as prime minister and then Netanyahu serving as Gantz’s deputy in the fantasy timeline where he doesn’t double-cross Gantz and force a new election. There is apparently a provision by which Gantz would immediately become PM should Netanyahu try to pull a fast one and dissolve parliament, but without knowing the details this seems pretty easy to evade.
Another provision bars the government from dealing with anything that isn’t directly related to the pandemic for its first six months. By “anything,” I mean anything except the annexation the West Bank, which will come up for a vote in July. The arrangement may also change Netanyahu’s motivations regarding his forthcoming corruption trial. Where he might have tried to delay the proceedings as much as possible before this, Netanyahu might now look to get it underway more quickly so that he can stand trial while serving as the sitting prime minister, with all the influence that would offer him over the proceedings (including vetoes over judicial appointments and the choice of attorney general in the new cabinet). It will definitely help Israel respond to the pandemic to have its head of government on trial while he’s supposed to be focused on the health crisis.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
1092 confirmed cases (+66)
36 reported fatalities (unchanged)
There are major concerns within the Trump administration that the pandemic may upend the Afghan peace process, such as it is. The fear is that with Kabul grudgingly undertaking a very slow, staged release of Taliban prisoners as a precursor to intra-Afghan negotiations, a major coronavirus outbreak in the Afghan prisoner system could kill enough of those Taliban prisoners that the militants will pull out of the talks altogether. US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has reportedly been encouraging the Afghan government to speed up its prisoner release schedule, using the pandemic as an excuse to categorize the releases as humanitarian rather than as concessions to the Taliban.
MYANMAR
121 confirmed cases (+2)
5 reported fatalities (unchanged)
A World Health Organization vehicle carrying coronavirus testing swabs to a lab for analysis came under gunfire in Rakhine state on Monday, killing the driver. The Myanmar military is battling the Arakan Army insurgency in Rakhine, and each side blamed the other for the incident.
NORTH KOREA
No acknowledged cases
After delving deep into the various reports and counter-reports about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s medical condition after I sent out last night’s update, I can confirm for you all today that he either is or is not brain dead. Just like the rest of us. CNN broke a story late Monday that US intelligence had reports that Kim was in “grave” condition after a botched heart procedure. This corresponded with, but was much more incendiary than, a report from South Korea’s Daily NK that said Kim was recovering from a procedure and that had kept him from attending the commemoration of North Korean founder Kim Il-sung’s birthday last week. I mentioned the Daily NK report in last night’s update and then appended the CNN report after the update went out, noting that you should probably take the former with a grain of salt and the latter with the whole shaker, at least.
As it happens, the Daily NK story was probably closer to the truth, although this being North Korea we have no way of knowing anything for certain. Chinese media has suggested Kim is not on death’s door, which OK Chinese media may not be the most reliable source in the world, fine. But the South Korean government also poured cold water on the CNN report, noting that it had detected no activity inside North Korea to indicate that there was a serious crisis unfolding in the upper echelons of its government. The South Koreans have no obvious reason to lie about such things and it’s very difficult to imagine that if Kim were in imminent danger of passing there wouldn’t be some oblique signs of distress emanating from Pyongyang. North Korea’s medical system is in shambles, but Kim doesn’t live like ordinary North Koreans, so not only does he have access to a very high level of health care, it’s likely his government would be flying Chinese doctors in to the country to treat him if his condition were really that serious. Especially right now, with global travel mostly at a standstill, that kind of thing would be hard to hide.
The North Korean government could of course try to clarify the situation at any time. So far it hasn’t, so make of that what you will.
Two extremely healthy dudes (White House photo via Flickr)
It’s worth mentioning that as far as anyone knows there’s no clear succession plan should Kim—who, let’s be honest, isn’t going to be bringing home gold in the next Olympic decathlon—kick the bucket. His sister, Kim Yo-jong, has been assuming a higher profile role of late and she might be the heir apparent at this point. But like most other things about the North Korean government, outsiders just don’t really know.
OCEANIA
AUSTRALIA
6645 confirmed cases (+20)
71 reported fatalities (unchanged)
A new Australian government estimate suggests that this summer’s massive brushfires released some 830 million tonnes of the stuff into the atmosphere. That’s well in excess of the amount of carbon Australia emits in an entire year. If the brushfires were a country, in fact, they would have been the sixth largest greenhouse polluter in the world while they were burning. Hopefully most of that will be captured by regrowth, but that assumes a fairly rapid regrowth cycle and no more major brushfires in the interim.
AFRICA
LIBYA
59 confirmed cases (+8)
1 reported fatality (unchanged)
The Atlantic Council’s Emadeddin Badi discusses the role the United Arab Emirates has played in brokering international support for Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar:
France’s clandestine military support of Haftar began in Benghazi as early as 2015, with a view toward countering terrorism and restoring security in Libya. Paris’ support of the authoritarian Haftar looks inimical to its liberal-democratic values, but it is broadly in line with its efforts to develop military alliances with authoritarian leaders in other parts of Africa to secure the Sahel.
For the UAE, the real added value of Paris’ support of its project in Libya was not in the military realm, but the political one. The election of Emmanuel Macron as French president in 2017 gave the UAE’s presence in Libya vital diplomatic cover because of Macron’s appetite for disruptive foreign policy.
France’s intervention helped turn Haftar’s control of eastern Libya and much of Libya’s oil infrastructure into political capital, and Macron hosted ameeting between Haftar and Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in 2017. That meeting became the blueprint for the peace talks that have since developed, and the rest of the international community has gradually moved in support of the power-sharing initiative. Even Italy, which had concerns about the possibility of reinstalling a dictator in Libya, still fell into line. But this peace initiative suffers from an inherent problem: Few of the major players are that serious about reaching a settlement. Neither Haftar nor the UAE were ever genuinely interested in an inclusive Libya in which Haftar would share power with the GNA.
More than that, the UAE has successfully diluted the importance of diplomacy involving Libya altogether. Through its bilateral ties and lobbying efforts, Abu Dhabi enabled Haftar to evade much public condemnation for his bellicosity. The Libya-related conferences that were hosted in foreign capitals were often followed by Haftar launching military operations that ran counter to these meetings’ very purpose. Western policymakers did little to challenge Haftar on this, and they never appeared to question the efficacy of their strategy of appeasement or the power-sharing blueprint.
ALGERIA
2811 confirmed cases (+93)
392 reported fatalities (+8)
The Algerian government’s 2020 budget included a 9 percent spending cut intended to help reduce its annual budget deficit. That figure assumed that the price of oil would remain roughly in the $50/barrel range. Algerian oil is currently trading around $20/barrel. For a country that derives a third of its revenues and most of its exports from oil and gas, needless to say that’s not good. The plan, apparently, is to diversify the Algerian economy away from fossil fuels, but ironically that’s a lot easier to do when fossil fuels are expensive and bringing in hefty revenues. Algeria has taken steps to open its economy up to foreign investors but that carries its own risks, and ultimately it seems inevitable that the Algerian government will turn to austerity in an effort to bring those deficits under control. Clearly that’s no panacea either.
BENIN
54 confirmed cases (unchanged)
1 reported fatality (unchanged)
Pirates attacked a container ship off the coast of Benin on Sunday, making off with eight of its crew including its captain. The Gulf of Guinea has become the global hot spot for acts of piracy, which generally seem to involve kidnappings for ransom.
MOZAMBIQUE
39 confirmed cases (unchanged)
no reported fatalities
Islamist fighters reportedly killed 52 men from the village of Xitaxi in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province earlier this month. According to authorities, the killings took place on April 7 and involved a group of “young men” who resisted being recruited into the Islamists’ ranks. Cabo Delgado is home to an escalating Islamist insurgency that is disrupting and feeding off of that province’s recent offshore energy discoveries. Mozambican officials say the insurgents haven’t taken control of any territory in the province but it’s hard to verify that.
EUROPE
ITALY
183,957 confirmed cases (+2729)
24,648 reported fatalities (+534)
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced via Facebook on Tuesday that his government will begin slowly rolling back coronavirus containment measures starting on May 4. While Conte is under growing economic pressure to open things back up, though, the fact is that Italy’s coronavirus numbers didn’t look so great today. Fatalities were up, which isn’t terribly indicative since fatalities lag behind other indicators, but so was the number of newly confirmed cases, but a significant number (almost 500 more new cases than yesterday). On the plus side, Tuesday saw another decline in the number of serious COVID-19 cases in Italian ICUs. Italian officials are going to have to be extremely judicious about their next steps to avoid what would be a catastrophic resurgence.
FRANCE
158,050 confirmed cases (+2667)
20,796 reported fatalities (531)
Monday saw a third straight night of clashes between police and protesters in the Parisian suburb of Villeneuve-la-Garenne. The violence broke out on Saturday after police collided with a motorcyclist, intentionally according to some witnesses. It’s been fueled since then by anger over the impact of the coronavirus, both in terms of public health and economically. Residents of France’s poorer regions—many of whom are immigrants who already feel they’re singled out for mistreatment by police—are faring much worse on both accounts than those living in the wealthier parts of the country.
AMERICAS
CHILE
10,832 confirmed cases (+325)
147 reported fatalities (+8)
An anti-government protest broke out Monday night in Santiago, leading to at least 14 arrests on grounds that the protesters were violating containment measures. It’s unclear whether this was a one-off event or a signal that the movement that rocked Chile late last year is making a comeback. President Sebastián Piñera’s approval numbers have gone up—I mean, they had nowhere else to go—amid the pandemic, but he does have critics who say his economic stimulus package hasn’t gone far enough. And of course the underlying conditions of poverty and austerity that caused protests to break out in October are still there, hidden behind the health crisis.
VENEZUELA
288 confirmed cases (+3)
10 reported fatalities (unchanged)
According to Reuters, allies of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and would-be president Juan Guaidó have started holding talks of some sort. Reuters’ sources didn’t really go into detail about what the talks involved or whether Maduro and/or Guaidó approved of them. Guaidó openly appeared to deny the story after it broke. The discussions may involve coordinating efforts to ameliorate the pandemic, since Maduro still controls the levers of power in Venezuela but Guaidó is able to access international aid from countries that have cut ties with Maduro’s government. The Trump administration last month offered to reduce sanctions against Venezuela if he were to step down and allow the creation of an interim unity government, so it’s also possible the talks have broached that subject though that seems less likely.
UNITED STATES
818,744 confirmed cases (+25,985)
45,318 reported fatalities (+2804)
Finally, Donald Trump announced late Monday that he’s suspending immigration into the United States, due ostensibly to the pandemic. I say “ostensibly” because given what we’ve seen from Trump over the past three years this seems very much like a solution that was looking for a problem. Trump framed the suspension as a move to support American workers at a time when people are losing their jobs at an unprecedented rate, but the fact is almost nobody was entering the US anyway given the effective freeze on international travel and the fact that the United States is easily the most dangerous place on the planet right now in terms of the coronavirus. The purpose of announcing an ineffectual immigration ban is and can only be to throw chum at his xenophobic white supremacist base.
Trump revealed more details of the suspension at his daily stand-up routine on Tuesday, saying that it will initially last for 60 days and target people seeking permanent residency, so it’s possible those coming into the country on temporary visas won’t be impacted. The administration has already effectively shut down the asylum system and seems hell-bent on deporting coronavirus-infected asylum seekers all over the Americas. It’s deported so many to Guatemala, for example, that the Guatemalan government is now trying to suspend its deportation arrangement with Washington. Whether the Trump administration will allow that remains to be seen.