World roundup: September 5 2024

Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, France, and elsewhere

Sep 06, 2024

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TODAY IN HISTORY

September 5, 1905: The Russo-Japanese War ends with the signing of the Treaty of Portsmouth, negotiated with the mediation of Teddy Roosevelt (who won the 1906 Nobel Peace Prize as a result). The Russians were obliged to evacuate Manchuria, acknowledge Korea as within Japan’s sphere of influence, and turn over a couple of Pacific islands to Tokyo. The war marked Japan as a rising power and contributed to growing political discontent in Russia that wasn’t resolved until 1917.

September 5, 1972: Members of the Palestinian terror group “Black September” kill two members of the Israeli delegation and take nine more hostage during the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich. A poorly handled rescue attempt at the Munich airport by West German police the following day ended with the nine hostages killed as well as five of the attackers and one police officer.

INTERNATIONAL

OPEC+ held its monthly get together on Thursday, and with global oil prices having dropped to their lowest level this year earlier this week The Gang decided to hold off on plans to increase production (slightly), at least through the end of November. Oil prices rose around $1 per barrel in response.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

It’s been a trying few days but I’m pleased to report that the Biden administration has found a way once again to absolve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of responsibility for torpedoing the ceasefire agreements that he keeps torpedoing. They’ve employed star conduit Barak Ravid, from Axios, to help craft a new narrative whereby it’s Hamas that’s blocking a deal by changing its demands with respect to the prisoner exchange aspect of the process. The thing is, according to Ravid Hamas introduced its new demands “during the negotiations in Doha last week,” negotiations that wouldn’t have taken place had Netanyahu not quashed—according to people in his own government—the deal that was on the table back in early July. So the administration’s new story doesn’t entirely hold up, but at least they’re trying.

People involved in the negotiations keep saying that there are ways to satisfy the principle behind Netanyahu’s chief demand for permanent Israeli military (IDF) occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border while still fulfilling Hamas’s demands for an IDF withdrawal. Passive border monitoring could meet Israel’s supposed security needs. Some sort of international security force could be deployed on the border if any other countries were interested in participating in such a scheme. A minimal IDF presence could secure the border while satisfying the ceasefire’s requirement that the Israelis withdraw from all heavily populated parts of Gaza. As negotiations progress into a second phase a full withdrawal could be introduced. I’m sure there are other possible ways forward.

But none of these are likely to work, because Netanyahu will continue to insist on a heavy, permanent IDF occupation, because he wants the ceasefire talks to fail. That’s what Israeli media, citing people in Netanyahu’s administration, keeps reporting. The Biden administration is giving him an excuse for his intransigence, because now he can say “hey, even if I give in on the border Hamas will still wreck the deal with new prisoner demands.” Why they’re still doing favors for a man who constantly pisses in the administration’s face, and who is at this point more or less working to ensure Donald Trump’s election in November, will remain beyond my understanding.

Elsewhere:

Amnesty International is calling for an investigation into possible Israeli war crimes over the IDF’s destruction of civilian buildings and farmland in eastern Gaza in order to create/expand a “buffer zone” between the territory and Israel proper. The organization claims that satellite imagery and videos shared online by Israeli soldiers show that structures in that area were intentionally destroyed, rather than incidentally damaged in battle. The IDF insists it has only destroyed “terror infrastructure,” a term that could mean just about anything.
Gaza’s polio vaccination project shifted to southern Gaza on Thursday for the second phase of the initial round of vaccinations. The first phase, targeting central Gaza, went better than expected as United Nations aid workers were able to inoculate some 187,000 children amid a series of localized, short-term pauses in IDF activity. Whether that success will continue as the effort moves into southern and eventually northern Gaza, and then as the whole process repeats for the second round of vaccinations, very much remains to be seen.
The IDF’s assault on the northern West Bank is continuing unabated. An Israeli airstrike killed at least five people in Tubas on Thursday and Israeli forces killed at least one additional Palestinian, a teenager, in the Farʿa refugee camp just outside of that same city. The IDF has killed at least 39 Palestinians and wounded over 130 more in about a week and a half since this operation began. Israelis have killed at least 685 Palestinians in the West Bank since October 7.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

The UAE announced the completion of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in Abu Dhabi on Thursday. According to AFP Barakah is intended to produce “40 terawatt-hours of electricity annually” once its four reactors are all online, which is about a quarter of the UAE’s electrical need. The facility began operations with a single reactor back in 2020, making the UAE the first Arab state to operate a functioning nuclear reactor. It was built with the support of the Korea Electric Power Corporation. Neighboring Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in developing its own nuclear power capability, possibly with US support, though unlike the Emiratis the Saudis also want to develop a domestic uranium enrichment program which raises concerns about potential weaponization.

ASIA

ARMENIA

While we’re on the subject of nuclear energy, according to Eurasianet it’s about to become another sore spot in Russian-Armenian relations:

The future of nuclear energy in Armenia is fast emerging as another flashpoint of acrimony between Armenian and Russian leaders.
The country’s aging Metsamor nuclear power plant, the first unit of which went online in 1976, is nearing the end of its lifespan. Armenia in late 2023 struck a deal with Russia to upgrade the facility and extend its operations until 2036. But with bilateral relations now experiencing a quick freeze, underscored by Armenia’s efforts to ice Russia out of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, officials in Yerevan are openly exploring other nuclear-energy options.

A few days ago Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly rejected the continuation of Russia’s assumed role as “peacekeeper” in the southern Caucasus, a role in which it hasn’t really kept anything resembling peace. Needless to say this relationship has definitely seen better days.

MALAYSIA

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told reporters in Russia on Thursday that he has no intention of halting his country’s energy exploration activities in the South China Sea despite Chinese opposition. The Chinese government lodged a protest with Malaysia’s Beijing embassy earlier this year about those activities, which conflict with China’s expansive claims in that waterway. Like other South China Sea littoral states (including the Philippines and Vietnam), Malaysia doesn’t recognize those Chinese claims. Anwar’s comments were noteworthy in that unlike some of those other states (the Philippines in particular), Malaysian leaders rarely discuss their disagreements with the Chinese government in public.

CHINA

Speaking of the Chinese government, it’s spent the week hosting the triennial Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit in Beijing. Al-Monitor’s Jack Dutton reports on the festivities:

At the 2024 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) this week, the Chinese government made a host of financial and political commitments to North Africa, including a new strategic partnership with Libya and a $14 billion investment in Egypt.
Leaders of more than 50 African countries gathered for the summit, which is held every three years, to speak on topics including climate, infrastructure, security and debt. Several African countries face debt crises, and China is the world’s biggest bilateral lender and Africa's largest trading partner, with a sprawling investment footprint across the continent. The event, running Tuesday through Thursday, marks one of China’s largest diplomatic events in recent years.
The Sino-Libyan pact was announced Wednesday by Chinese President Xi Jinping and President of the Libyan Presidency Council Mohamed al-Menfi at the summit.

Xi also announced plans to provide African states with $51 billion in new funding and some $70 billion in new investment by Chinese companies.

ALGERIA

Algerian voters will head to the polls on Saturday for a presidential contest that should be hotly contested between-sorry, I’m kidding, incumbent Abdelmadjid Tebboune will win, to the extent that anybody can “win” something that’s not actually a contest. I’m also exaggerating when I say that “Algerian voters” will be turning out. Some of them will, I’m sure, but probably not that many. Tebboune himself reportedly wants a high turnout election to burnish his legitimacy, but it would be very surprising if he got it—unless the Algerian government fabricates the numbers.

MALI

Mali’s Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA) rebel coalition and the Nigerien rebel Front Patriotique de Libération (FPL) group are reportedly exploring the idea of collaboration. At his Sawahil newsletter, Alex Thurston considers what that might entail:

How might the CSP and the FPL work together? As Yvan Guichaoua comments in this interview, the full military integration of the two forces appears highly unlikely given their different areas of operations, priorities, etc. - so this appears more “an exercise in political communication.” The two rebel groups were quick to mediatize the event - see some photographs and comments from both sides (the link is to the account of the High Council for the Unity of Azawad, one component of the CSP) here. If anything, I would say the meeting boosts the profile of the FPL, signaling that they are taken seriously by the Sahel’s most prominent non-jihadist rebel coalition.

As he goes on to point out, the rebels are also responding to the increasing coordination between Malian and Nigerien security forces under the rubric of the “Alliance of Sahel States” confederation involving the region’s three military-led states (Mali and Niger plus Burkina Faso). Niger and Burkina Faso have supported the Malian military against the CSP, so it could be said that they regionalized this conflict first and the rebels are just catching up.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The governors of three Russian provinces bordering Ukraine—Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk—are reportedly raising volunteer defense forces in response to Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk oblast. Now, I don’t want to question Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s veracity when he says that the Russians have diverted 60,000 (!) soldiers from the front line in eastern Ukraine to Kursk, but the fact that these governors are feeling compelled to mount their own ad hoc response to the Ukrainian invasion suggests that Moscow has not actually made this situation a high priority. There is no evidence to support Zelensky’s assertion, or anything close to it, and what evidence there is points to a far more subdued Russian response. Russian forces are continuing to advance toward the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk seemingly unburdened by whatever is happening over the border.

UKRAINE

Indeed, Russian forces are now close enough to Pokrovsk that Ukrainian authorities had to divert a train that was supposed to evacuate people from that city on Thursday. Some 27,000 people remain in Pokrovsk despite numerous recent government recommendations that they urgently consider relocating. Ordinary rail service is continuing to function in the city but it’s unclear when (or if) another evacuation train might be scheduled.

FRANCE

French President Emmanuel Macron finally settled on a prime minister on Thursday, and his pick turns out to be former French foreign minister and European Union Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. Macron appears to be trying to have his cake and eat it too, appointing a conservative (Barnier is a member of the French Republican Party) with whom he is in ideological alignment but who seems uncontroversial enough to potentially survive a parliamentary challenge as parties on the left and far right decide that he’s an acceptable pick. French PMs aren’t subject to confirmation votes but they can be forced out by a no confidence motion if they lack majority support (or at least acquiescence).

Barnier was last seen pursuing the Republican nomination for president in 2022 and this has stayed clear of France’s more recent political turmoil. He spoke on Thursday in terms that sounded almost like he intends to function as a “national unity” candidate, which is probably how he needs to approach the job given that the French parliament is now effectively deadlocked following June’s snap election. At the very least he’ll need to appeal to Macron’s centrist bloc and the far right in order to prevent (or survive) a no confidence vote. Members of the far-right National Rally party are suggesting that in return for not ousting Barnier immediately they’re going to demand another snap election sometime next year.

NICARAGUA

The Nicaraguan government agreed on Thursday to release 135 prisoners on humanitarian grounds and deport them to Guatemala, following apparently extensive negotiations with US officials. All are viewed by Washington as political prisoners, charged with offenses related to 2019 protests against President Daniel Ortega. The Biden administration negotiated a similar and slightly larger prisoner release with Ortega’s government last year.

HAITI

The Haitian government welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Port-au-Prince on Thursday by announcing an expansion of the state of emergency in Haiti’s capital to the rest of the country. Port-au-Prince and its environs were placed under that state of emergency back in March due to violence that’s left gang insurgents in control of some 80 percent of the city. Blinken’s visit is meant to spark some new international support for a Kenyan-led police intervention that’s so far done little to counter the gangs thanks to profound manpower and funding shortfalls. That mission’s UN mandate is up for renewal next month and Blinken called on Thursday for it to be renewed.

UNITED STATES

Finally, TomDispatch’s William Astore wonders if the US is still the “arsenal of democracy” or, perhaps, has become the arsenal of something else:

During World War II, American leaders proudly proclaimed this country the “arsenal of democracy,” supplying weapons and related materiel to allies like Great Britain and the Soviet Union. To cite just one example, I recall reading about Soviet armored units equipped with U.S. Sherman tanks, though the Soviets had an even better tank of their own in the T-34 and its many variants. However, recent news that the United States is providing yet more massive arms deliveries to Israel (worth $20 billion) for 2026 and thereafter caught me off guard. Israel quite plainly is engaged in the near-total destruction of Gaza and the massacre of Palestinians there. So, tell me, how over all these years did the self-styled arsenal of democracy become an arsenal of genocide?
Israel, after all, couldn’t demolish Gaza, killing at least 40,000 Palestinians in a population of only 2.1 million, including thousands of babies and infants, without massive infusions of U.S. weaponry. Often, the U.S. doesn’t even sell the weaponry to Israel, a rich country that can pay its own bills. Congress just freely gifts body- and baby-shredding bombs in the name of defending Israel from Hamas. Obviously, by hook or crook, or rather by shells, bombs, and missiles, Israel is intent on rendering Gaza Palestinian-free and granting Israelis more living space there (and on the West Bank). That’s not “defense” — it’s the 2024 equivalent of Old Testament-style vengeance by annihilation.
As Tacitus said of the rampaging Romans two millennia ago, so it can now be said of Israel: they create a desert — a black hole of death in Gaza — and call it “peace.” And the U.S. government enables it or, in the case of Congress, cheers on its ringleader, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.