World roundup: September 26 2024
Stories from Lebanon, Sudan, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
September 26, 1799: A Republican French army under André Masséna outflanks and defeats a Russian-Austrian force at the Second Battle of Zürich. The French victory recovered what Masséna had lost in his defeat at the First Battle of Zürich in June and led to Russia’s decision to quit the Second Coalition. Shortly afterward Napoleon returned to Paris from Egypt and made himself First Consul, and the French Revolutionary Wars began to go in a whole new direction.
September 26, 1983: The Soviet Union’s early warning network determines that the United States has launched one intercontinental ballistic missile and recommends retaliating, but an air force lieutenant colonel named Stanislav Petrov, under the assumption that the US would not launch a nuclear first strike with a single weapon, decides that it must be malfunctioning. He made a similar determination when the system later showed four more US missiles in fight, and turned out to be correct—Soviet satellites were somehow misreading sunlight reflecting off of high altitude clouds as missiles. Petrov’s decision not to rely on the warning system probably single-handedly prevented World War III.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli government said on Thursday that it has received $8.7 billion in new military aid from the United States. Of that, $3.5 billion is going toward “essential wartime procurement” while the remainder is devoted to bolstering the Israeli military’s (IDF) air defense network. I thought I’d mention this first because it provides important context for something we’ll talk about below.
Another IDF airstrike targeting a school-turned-shelter killed at least 15 people in northern Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp on Thursday. I’m sure you already know what’s coming, but Israeli officials claimed the strike targeted Hamas militants operating within the civilian shelter.
SYRIA
The Biden administration rolled out a new $535 million aid package for Syria on Thursday, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session. It plans to funnel the money through humanitarian groups to keep it away from the Syrian government, which likely means it will be put toward supporting refugees and displaced Syrians in rebel-held parts of northern and eastern Syria.
LEBANON
The Israeli government received Wednesday’s French and US proposal for a 21 day ceasefire with Hezbollah and promptly rejected it on Thursday. Foreign Minister Israel Katz took to social media to assert plainly that “there will be no ceasefire in the north,” while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement saying that the PM hadn’t even bothered to respond to the proposal. This turns out to be maybe not entirely accurate—I know, I can’t imagine Benjamin Netanyahu lying either, but bear with me—as Haaretz reported that Netanyahu had been briefed about the ceasefire proposal and approved it before the French government made it public. While flying to the US to participate in UNGA festivities, Netanyahu found out that the far right elements of his coalition were threatening to abandon him over the ceasefire, and by the time he landed in New York he’d done a full flip and told the French and US governments to get bent.
If you’re wondering why Netanyahu feels free to give the United States the back of his hand routinely, I think the fact that he’s able to spit this ceasefire offer in Joe Biden’s face and still walk away with $8.7 billion in new weaponry explains the dynamic quite effectively. We can question why Biden permits this, but it makes understanding Netanyahu’s behavior simple. In the absence of any semblance of genuine pressure from Washington he has no reason not to obey the wishes of the most extreme elements of his cabinet (which probably reflect his own wishes, to be fair).
The IDF says it is continuing to prepare for a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. It also carried out another airstrike on a residential area in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Thursday, apparently targeting Hezbollah drone commander Mohammed Sarur. That strike killed at least two people, who join the 29 people the IDF killed on Thursday and some 1540 people the IDF has killed in Lebanon since October. It’s not yet clear whether Sarur was among the casualties.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
Joe Biden hosted Abu Dhabi ruler and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the White House earlier this week and thanked him for…um, all the wonderful things he’s done by granting the UAE the status of “major defense partner.” With that designation comes enhanced military cooperation with the US, though it is short of the “major non-NATO ally” status that I suspect MBZ would have preferred. The Biden administration decided to reward the UAE even as it continues to funnel weapons to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, enabling some of the worst atrocities currently taking place anywhere on Earth. It’s no doubt hoping that this new status will improve US-UAE relations at the expense of the UAE’s relationship with China, though I suspect that’s not going to be the case.
ASIA
CHINA
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, based on satellite imagery and assessments from “US officials,” that the Chinese navy’s new Zhou-class nuclear attack submarine program suffered a setback earlier this year:
China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, a major setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs, U.S. officials said.
The episode, which Chinese authorities scrambled to cover up and hasn’t previously been disclosed, occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June.
It comes as China has been pushing to expand its navy, including its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.
They were apparently able to salvage the vessel but it’s unclear when it will be seaworthy.
NORTH KOREA
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told members of parliament on Thursday that it believes North Korea’s current stockpile of enriched uranium would be sufficient to manufacture “at least a double-digit number” of nuclear warheads. This assessment comes about two weeks after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a televised inspection of an unspecified uranium enrichment facility that seems to have been intended to show off for South Korea and the US.
JAPAN
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold an internal election on Friday to replace outgoing party boss and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. There are a whopping nine candidates running and little consensus as to who is the favorite, though most speculation seems to have fallen on three people: former environment minister Koizumi Shinjirō, former defense minister Ishiba Shigeru, and current state minister for economic security Takaichi Sanae. Koizumi would become Japan’s youngest-ever prime minister, and Takaichi would be the first woman to hold the post. Ishiba is trying for the fifth time to become party leader.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese army began a new offensive in Khartoum on Thursday, aiming to retake positions in the city that they’ve lost to the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group over the past 18 months. It was reportedly able to seize three bridges over the Nile River connecting the neighboring cities of Bahri and Omdurman to Khartoum. There’s no word in terms of progress beyond that, nor have I seen any indications as to casualties—though given the reportedly heavy use of artillery and airstrikes in this operation, the number of casualties may wind up being fairly high.
Africa Is a Country’s Abu Hureira discusses the RSF’s mass looting of Sudan’s cultural and historical heritage:
The RSF’s looting of the Sudan National Museum is not just a tragedy for Sudan but a global loss. The artifacts stolen from the museum have already begun appearing on black markets, sold through platforms like eBay and Facebook. These items, once housed in a public institution for all to appreciate and learn from, are now being traded to the highest bidder, often with little regard for their historical value or the stories they tell about the people and civilizations that created them. The black-market sale of these treasures represents the erasure of Sudan’s cultural heritage.
Each stolen statue, manuscript, or fresco is a puzzle piece in Sudan’s long and intricate history. The destruction and theft of artifacts like the statues of the black pharaohs or the Christian frescoes of Faras leave gaps in the story of Sudan’s past that may never be filled, meaning future generations will have an incomplete picture of the powerful civilizations that once ruled the Nile Valley. These artifacts connected Sudanese people to their ancestors, and without them, a critical part of Sudan’s identity is lost.
LIBYA
Libya’s rival western and eastern governments on Thursday signed their new UN-mediated deal to resolve tensions over the governance of the country’s central bank. The agreement calls for the naming of a new bank governor within a week and a new board of directors within two weeks. Needless to say it very much remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to reach a consensus on either of those things.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
A new report from Human Rights Watch accuses the M23 militia and its Rwandan military supporters, as well as the Congolese military, of multiple war crimes:
Rwandan forces and M23 rebels have shelled refugee camps and other highly populated areas in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo on many occasions this year, Human Rights Watch has claimed.
The NGO also accused the DRC’s armed forces and its allied militias of putting the camps’ residents in danger by stationing their artillery nearby in its report alleging violation of international humanitarian and human rights law in the longstanding war in the central African country.
Decades-long fighting among regional armies and rebels in eastern DRC has killed and displaced millions.
Most of the displaced live in the eastern provinces of the country, including North Kivu, where M23, with assistance from the Rwandan army, has managed to take control in many areas. More than half a million people have been forced into camps near Goma, the capital of North Kivu, as the rebel group advances.
The researchers for the report interviewed 65 witnesses, camp authorities and victims of abuses in six displacement camps around Goma. They also spoke with 31 humanitarian, diplomatic, UN, and military sources and analysed photos and videos of attack sites, images of weapon remains, and satellite imagery.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
With Vladimir Putin now apparently preparing to relax Russian nuclear doctrine, reducing the level of provocation that would potentially justify a nuclear response, The Nation’s Daniel DePetris cautions against taking his threats too lightly:
From the moment the war in Ukraine began, the Biden administration has attempted to accomplish what would seem to be two contradictory objectives: support Kyiv’s defenses against Russia’s unjustified invasion and minimize the prospects of a direct NATO-Russia conflict that could conceivably rise to the nuclear level.
Washington has accomplished the feat—so far. Although the Russians continue their advance in the Donbas, at a high cost to their own personnel—UK Defense Minister John Healey claimed this month that around 1,100 Russian troops were being killed every day—the Ukrainians haven’t folded and are using Western-supplied equipment, from tanks and F-16 aircraft to the Army Tactical Missile System, to strike Russian positions in occupied Ukraine and within Russia’s own borders. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling, which he started at the very beginning of the conflict, has been just that: saber-rattling. While so many perceived Russian red lines have been crossed the last two and half years, some Western foreign policy commentators, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have concluded that Washington and its allies can do pretty much anything without having to worry about escalation.
Yet, as President Biden deliberates on allowing Ukraine to use Western missiles to strike military targets deep in Russian territory, US officials must weigh the first-, second-, and third-order consequences of any decisions they make. Assuming that escalation risks don’t exist is irresponsible and potentially dangerous.
To be clear: The notion propagated by some that Russia is merely taking it on the chin and not escalating is inaccurate. Although nobody can ascertain Putin’s decision-making calculus with total accuracy, it’s certainly safe to say that when the Russian army’s back is against the wall, Putin responds by redoubling his commitment to the war effort—not by cowering from his maximalist position and suing for peace.
UKRAINE
Joe Biden announced a whopper of a new military aid package for Ukraine on Thursday, totally some $8 billion. Basically in one fell swoop Biden is using up what is left of his presidential drawdown authority, which allows him to send Ukraine weaponry directly from existing Pentagon stockpiles. That amount, some $5.5 billion, was set to expire at the end of this month. The rest of the package draws from funds allocated under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which authorizes the US to pay for Ukrainian purchases from arms manufacturers. Those weapons will take longer to arrive as they need to be manufactured. Among the munitions Ukraine will be getting in this package is, for the first time, the Joint Standoff Weapon, a medium-range “glide bomb” that should improve the Ukrainian military’s accuracy in “standoff” airstrikes against Russian positions. What is not included, apparently, is permission for Ukraine to use long-range US arms to strike freely inside Russia.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Haitian insurgents have been able to shut down a supply port in Port-au-Prince, according to a statement on Thursday from the facility’s operator, Caribbean Port Services. Repeated attacks have prevented ships from docking and unloading cargo, and two crew members from one ship have reportedly been kidnapped.
With the Haitian capital clearly still in crisis, Kenyan President William Ruto said in his UNGA speech that he is aiming to complete Kenya’s 1000 police officer deployment to Haiti by January (said deployment is currently stuck at 400 officers) and to have the full international force of 2500 police officers ready to go at that time. Meanwhile, the chair of Haiti’s governing transitional council, Edgard Leblanc Fils called on Thursday for shifting the current UN-supported police mission in Haiti to a full-blown UN peacekeeping operation. That would resolve the operation’s biggest problem, a lack of funding, but may be easier said than done in terms of getting the UN Security Council to approve it.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Foreign Affairs’ Marietje Schaake warns that governments have ceded too much power to our exalted tech overlords:
On August 30, the Brazilian Supreme Court banned X—the social media platform formally known as Twitter—from its country’s Internet. The ban was the culmination of a months-long fight between Elon Musk, the platform’s owner and the world’s richest man, and Alexandre de Moraes, one of the court’s justices. Moraes was tasked with investigating the role of online disinformation in attempts to keep former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in power, despite losing the election. As part of these duties, Moraes had ordered X to take down hundreds of accounts spreading disinformation. In response, the platform accused the justice of censorship. Musk withdrew the representatives X legally needed to operate in Brazil, which eventually led the justice to prevent Brazilians from accessing the platform altogether.
Musk did not take kindly to the decision, comparing Moraes to an “evil tyrant.” But Musk did not confine his anger to harsh denunciations. According to reporting by The New York Times, he actively worked around the order. First, Musk encouraged Brazilians to use virtual private networks (VPNs) to evade the blockage. Then, his Starlink satellite network, which provides Internet service to subscribers directly from space, continued providing access to the site. Finally, X rerouted its Internet traffic through new servers, allowing it to circumvent Brazil’s telecommunication controls altogether.
Under mounting pressure from authorities in a country with a significant number of X users (and asset seizures), the company eventually agreed to block the disinformation accounts and pay off its fines. But the brazenness with which a tech mogul was able to defy a state’s decision makes a stark and scary fact very tangible: democratic governments have lost their primacy in the digital world. Instead, companies and their executives are increasingly in charge. This power shift is the sum of society’s systemic dependence on technology firms, the legal gray zones in which they operate, and the unique characteristics of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. It is a product of how public institutions have been stripped of their technological knowledge, agency, and accountability. It is a reality that generations of politicians of various parties have allowed to set in.
If democracy is to survive, leaders must fight this coup head on. They need to shrink their overdependence on powerful tech companies. They must empower public interest technology as a counterweight. They need to rebuild their own tech expertise. Most of all, they must build effective and innovative regulatory regimes that can meaningfully hold tech companies (and governments using tech) to account. Doing so is needed to sustain open, free, and vibrant digital societies based on the rule of law.
The Brazilian case is a reminder that it is not too late. Democratic authorities can reclaim their sovereignty and assert themselves effectively in tech—if they choose to use their muscles.