World roundup: October 27 2020
Stories from Syria, Azerbaijan, France, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 26, 1185: A revolt over high Byzantine taxes breaks out among Bulgarians living in Moesia. This insurrection, known as the “Uprising of Asen and Peter” after its leaders—two brothers (identified as Vlach but probably with mixed Bulgarian heritage) who were named, you know, Asen and Peter—quickly led to a restoration of the Bulgarian Empire, which had been subjugated by the Byzantines in the 11th century. The restored empire is dated to the start of the uprising, though its independence wasn’t secured until around 1187 and technically its war with Byzantium continued all the way until the Fourth Crusade (temporarily) ended the Byzantine Empire in 1204. This “Second Bulgarian Empire” survived until it was eradicated by the Ottomans in 1396.
October 26, 1947: Maharaja Hari Singh of Jammu and Kashmir signs the Instrument of Accession that brings his state into union with India. When British colonial authorities partitioned India and Pakistan, they decided to leave Kashmir’s fate up to Kashmir. The majority of the region’s population was Muslim, but was divided between those who wanted union with Pakistan and those who wanted independence. The region’s Hindu population supported union with India. Hari Singh was Hindu but initially had a mind to play the two countries off of one another and maintain independence that way. A Pakistani operation to infiltrate militants into Kashmir to force Hari Singh to agree to union with Pakistan worked, in the sense that it convinced him that independence was impossible, but it also totally backfired, in the sense that he agreed to union with India, not Pakistan. Obviously this continues to be an issue.
October 27, 1991: Turkmenistan’s independence day
October 27, 2019: Surrounded by US special forces during an overnight raid in the town of Barisha, in Syria’s Idlib province, Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi detonates a suicide vest, killing himself and three children.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 27:
44,234,933 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (10,620,714 active, +459,020 since yesterday)
1,171,271 reported fatalities (+7023 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
5528 confirmed coronavirus cases (+67)
275 reported fatalities (+3)
At least 29 combatants were killed Tuesday amid ongoing clashes between the Syrian army and remnants of the Islamic State in eastern Hama province and thereabouts. IS fighters have used the vast Syrian desert as a refuge since losing their “caliphate” back in 2017-2018. At least 16 Syrian soldiers were killed along with 13 IS fighters. Syrian rebels in Idlib province, meanwhile, undertook a major artillery barrage against Syrian military positions in that area, in retaliation for Russian (probably) airstrikes the day before that killed dozens of Faylaq al-Sham fighters. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting that at least 12 Syrian soldiers and allied personnel were killed in those strikes.
YEMEN
2060 confirmed cases (+0)
599 reported fatalities (+0)
Unknown gunmen murdered the rebel Houthi government’s minister of sports and culture, Hassan Zaid, in a shooting in Sanaa on Tuesday. The Houthis are accusing “criminal elements” connected with the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition of the attack, but it’s not clear how they would have been able to get into Sanaa. Meanwhile, the Houthis claimed on Tuesday that they carried out a drone strike on the Saudi airport at Abha, but there’s no confirmation of this as far as I know and the Saudis said earlier in the day that they’d shot down a Houthi drone.
TURKEY
366,208 confirmed cases (+2209)
9950 reported fatalities (+76)
The price of gold is skyrocketing in Turkey thanks to the collapse of the lira, and this has led the Turkish government to try to boost the nation’s mining sector. That, in turn, seems to be sparking an environmentalist backlash:
Gold-mining projects have been concentrated in the northwestern province of Canakkale and neighboring Balikesir, which are home to unique natural riches and historical heritage, including the site of ancient Troy and Mount Ida (Kaz Daglari in Turkish), a frequent setting in ancient Greek mythology. About 30 projects have been licensed in the region, some of which have resulted in major deforestation, triggering mass protests and legal battles. Local communities and civic groups argue the chemicals used by gold-mining companies pose a threat to water resources and the ecosystem in the region. Canada’s Alamos Gold is one of the biggest and most criticized investors in the area.
Earlier this month, AKP lawmakers submitted a draft bill to parliament, designed to facilitate renewal procedures for mining licenses, rekindling criticism that Ankara is concerned more with the commercial interests of companies than the environmental alarm and the grievances of locals, who are often rural people depending on agriculture and husbandry.
IRAQ
459,908 confirmed cases (+4510)
10,724 reported fatalities (+53)
Iraqi authorities on Tuesday reopened Baghdad’s Sinak bridge, which they’d closed last October to prevent protesters from getting into the city’s secured Green Zone. They’re also apparently considering a reopening of the Jumhuriyah bridge, closed around the same time for the same reason. It seems to me they’re being fairly optimistic about the possibility of a revival of those protests—police drove demonstrators off of the Jumhuriyah bridge just this past weekend—but I suppose time will tell. Also on Tuesday, unknown attackers killed a prominent activist in the southern Iraqi city of Amarah. Iraqi anti-government activists are often targets for paramilitary groups, but it’s obviously too soon to say what took place in this case.
IRAN
581,824 confirmed cases (+6968)
33,299 reported fatalities (+346)
The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed on Tuesday that Iran is building a new underground centrifuge production facility at Natanz. This would replace the facility that was, uh, “accidentally” blown up and set on fire back in July in what was totally not an act of US and/or Israeli sabotage. There’s no doubt that this news will become grist for the regime change crowd, if it isn’t already. But to claim that this new facility proves that Iran is acting nefariously is to ignore the fact that the IAEA knows about the facility because Iranian officials shared that information with the agency’s inspectors. Which is exactly what they’re obliged to do under international law and according to the mostly defunct 2015 nuclear deal.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
51,149 confirmed cases (+663)
688 reported fatalities (+9)
The Azerbaijani military apparently made another significant gain on Tuesday, when the Karabakh separatist government pulled its forces out of the Qubadli region south of the Karabakh enclave. To be clear I am not an expert in south Caucasian geography, but my amateur map reading suggests to me that this puts the Azerbaijanis within easy striking distance of the Lachin corridor, the mountain pass that serves as the main—arguably only—route through which supplies and reinforcements can enter Karabakh from Armenia. It still seems unlikely that the Azerbaijanis are going to attempt to retake Karabakh by force, but if they’re able to cut the Lachin route they will effectively besiege the region and may be able to force a settlement on the Karabakh government.
AFGHANISTAN
41,032 confirmed cases (+95)
1523 reported fatalities (+5)
At least five Afghan police officers were killed during a lengthy attack on a police special forces base in the city of Khost on Tuesday. Three suicide bombers and seven other attackers were also killed. No group has claimed responsibility, but in eastern Afghanistan either the Taliban or the Islamic State are possibilities.
It could even have been al-Qaeda, though to be fair al-Qaeda has seen better days in Afghanistan. It’s still hanging around, though, as witnessed by the killing of one of its senior figures, who went by the name “Abu Muhsin al-Masri,” by Afghan forces this past weekend. I regret, however, to inform you that previous reporting identifying Abu Muhsin al-Masri as al-Qaeda’s second in-command was apparently inaccurate. Those reports conflated Abu Muhsin al-Masri with Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and it’s the latter who is Ayman al-Zawahiri’s number two. Allegedly.
One lesson we could draw from this confusion is that it’s kind of dumb to try to guess at a hierarchy in an organization that was largely inscrutable at the height of its influence and that has been so degraded that its senior leaders may not even be in communication with one another anymore. But maybe that’s just me.
PAKISTAN
329,375 confirmed cases (+773)
6745 reported fatalities (+6)
At least seven people were killed and 109 wounded on Tuesday in a bombing at a religious school in the city of Peshawar. It seems reasonable to conclude that a Pakistani Taliban faction was responsible, but there’s been no claim as yet and given the target—and the fact that some of the casualties were children—one may not forthcoming.
MALAYSIA
28,640 confirmed cases (+835)
238 reported fatalities (+2)
Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s political fortunes got a little boost on Tuesday when the United Malays National Organization party, the largest in his coalition, apparently recommitted to supporting him. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has been telling people that he has enough votes in parliament to oust Muhyiddin and replace him as PM, but it’s believed part of that support was coming from disaffected UMNO members. The party’s (re-)endorsement of Muhyiddin doesn’t necessarily mean he’s in the clear but certainly it’s better for him than the alternative. At this point the future of Muhyiddin’s premiership seems to rest on parliament’s upcoming vote on next year’s budget, which should happen next month. If he loses that vote then Malaysia is likely facing a snap election. If he wins it, then, well, Malaysia may still be facing a snap election, but not necessarily.
AFRICA
ALGERIA
56,706 confirmed cases (+287)
1931 reported fatalities (+9)
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was reportedly hospitalized on Tuesday, most likely for the coronavirus though authorities didn’t offer any details except to say that his condition is “stable.” Tebboune was already in self isolation after a couple of his aides tested positive for the virus, and at 75 he’s certainly in a high risk group if he’s contracted it.
GUINEA
11,819 confirmed cases (+184)
71 reported fatalities (+0)
The United Nations and the Economic Community of West African States have sent representatives to Guinea to try to mediate the post-election dispute emerging there. President Alpha Condé won last week’s election handily, according to the official results, but opposition candidate Cellou Dalein Diallo nevertheless claimed victory. At least 21 people have been killed in clashes since the vote and Condé has had his security forces surround Diallo’s home in Conakry.
NIGER
1218 confirmed cases (+3)
69 reported fatalities (+0)
Six gunmen reportedly kidnapped a US national in southern Niger on Tuesday. Details are sparse, but police seem to believe the kidnappers were Fulani, which means they may have been affiliated with an Islamist group though it’s by no means conclusive in that regard.
ETHIOPIA
94,218 confirmed cases (+511)
1445 reported fatalities (+8)
Tuesday’s round of talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam went so well that the three parties have…agreed to talk again. Well, it’s something. The Sudanese government says it will organize another round of technical talks, lasting perhaps as long as a week, so that the parties might “submit to the African Union presidency a report on the means to make tangible progress” in GERD negotiations. Those sure are a lot of words. The root of the disagreement remains unchanged: both Egypt and Sudan want a binding agreement that governs how the GERD’s reservoir is filled and how the dam is operated in order to minimize its impact on downriver water levels on the Nile, and Ethiopia does not want that. So far there doesn’t seem to be a lot of common ground emerging between those positions.
TANZANIA
509 confirmed cases (+0)
21 reported fatalities (+0)
The Tanzanian political opposition is accusing security forces of gunning down at least nine protesters and beating many others overnight in Zanzibar. Opposition leaders have been sounding alarms about the possibility that President John Magufuli could rig the vote in order to ensure his reelection, and they arranged the protests to highlight those warnings. Authorities also made a number of arrests, detaining among other people Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad, a leading opposition candidate for president of Zanzibar. He was later released.
Magufuli has certainly gone to some lengths to suppress opposition during his first term, but analysts seem to feel he’s got a strong enough base of support that he should win Wednesday’s election without resorting to outright fraud. Whatever the outcome, the potential for post-election unrest seems high.
EUROPE
BELARUS
94,609 confirmed cases (+902)
965 reported fatalities (+4)
France 24 reports on the efforts to get a national strike going to pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko into resigning:
FRANCE
1,198,695 confirmed cases (+33,417)
35,541 reported fatalities (+523)
The French government is asking the European Union to make Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stop bullying them. The Turkish leader has been calling for the Islamic world to boycott French products over Emmanuel Macron’s recent project to neg Islam. Macron’s response seems a bit whiny, especially given that those boycotts are not a serious risk to the French economy, but to the extent that it draws attention to the Macron-Erdoğan feud that’s a good thing for Macron. And for Erdoğan, for that matter, as the Washington Post’s Ishaan Tharoor explained pretty well in his “Today’s WorldView” column on Tuesday. Macron is clearly using this fight to burnish his anti-Islam credentials ahead of his expected rematch with xenophone Marine Le Pen in 2022. Erdoğan, meanwhile, is always thrilled for any excuse to focus Turkish voters’ attention on a foreign enemy. Every minute Turks spend being angry at Emmanuel Macron is another minute they’re not noticing that the Turkish lira is cratering or that the pandemic may be on the verge of spiking in Turkey again.
AMERICAS
BOLIVIA
140,952 confirmed cases (+99)
8658 reported fatalities (+13)
Hundreds of plucky defenders of Bolivian democracy turned out in the city of Santa Cruz on Monday to call for a new military coup to prevent the duly elected Luis Arce of assuming the presidency. After all, one of the hallmarks of a vibrant democracy is when the army steps in every time the wrong candidate wins an election, right? Evo Morales, who was ousted as president the last time these plucky defenders of democracy got the military to do them a solid, called for calm on Tuesday, though somehow I think these protesters are unlikely to listen to him.
BRAZIL
5,440,903 confirmed cases (+29,353)
157,981 reported fatalities (+530)
The New York Times, of all places, has a fairly scathing review of the ways that Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, all by themselves, crippled Latin America’s ability to respond to the pandemic:
Together, the two men, fierce opponents of Latin America’s leftists, took aim at Cuba’s great pride: the doctors it sends around the world. Mr. Trump and Mr. Bolsonaro drove 10,000 Cuban doctors and nurses out of impoverished areas of Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia and El Salvador. Many left without being replaced only months before the pandemic arrived.
Then, the two leaders attacked the international agency most capable of fighting the virus — the Pan-American Health Organization, or PAHO — citing its involvement with the Cuban medical program. With help from Mr. Bolsonaro, Mr. Trump nearly bankrupted the agency by withholding promised funding at the height of the outbreak, to an extent not previously disclosed.
And with help from Mr. Trump, Mr. Bolsonaro has made hydroxychloroquine the centerpiece of Brazil’s pandemic response, despite a medical consensus that the drug is ineffective and even dangerous. The Food and Drug Administration warned last April against most uses of the drug to treat Covid-19. A month later, Mr. Trump announced after a phone call with Mr. Bolsonaro that the United States would send Brazil two million doses.
Weak health systems and overcrowded cities made Latin America inherently vulnerable. But by driving out doctors, blocking assistance, and pushing false cures, Mr. Trump and Mr. Bolsonaro made a bad situation worse, dismantling defenses.
Brainstorming how to make everybody sick, maybe (White House photo via Flickr)
UNITED STATES
9,038,030 confirmed cases (+75,072)
232,084 reported fatalities (+1039)
Finally, Michael Peck, the Trump-appointed CEO of the US Agency for Global Media, decided late Monday to pull the trigger on something that’s been brewing at the USAGM for some time now. He’s eliminating the “editorial firewall” that’s supposed to keep politicians from influencing the journalism done at US government-financed outlets like Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (full disclosure: I’ve made appearances on Alhurra TV in the past), etc.
Now, I won’t argue with anybody who says that VOA, RFERL, and the others have broadcast US propaganda in the past. What makes this decision troubling is that those outlets can now legally be pressured to broadcast Donald Trump propaganda. In many ways that could be a distinction without a difference, but in many other ways it’s not, and this represents a change for the worse. And it’s not one that’s likely to change back in the future. A Biden administration might put the “firewall” back in place, but it’s almost certain that a future administration will remove it again.