TODAY IN HISTORY
October 25, 1147: The Siege of Lisbon ends. This siege involved soldiers who had initially set out for the Holy Land to join what we now call the Second Crusade. And speaking of which, this is also the date on which the army of Holy Roman Emperor Conrad III was thoroughly defeated by the Seljuks at the Battle of Dorylaeum, removing it as a potential factor in that crusade. We’ve seen how that eventually turned out.
October 25, 1917: The Bolsheviks begin an uprising in Petrograd that would within a day see them overthrow the provisional Russian government of Alexander Kerensky and, after a lengthy civil war, become the new leaders of Russia. This is the Old Style (Julian calendar) date of the revolution, which according to the Gregorian calendar actually took place on November 7. But since it’s called the “October Revolution” I feel weird commemorating it in November.
MIDDLE EAST
IRAN
This is still very much a breaking story, but the Israeli military (IDF) reportedly began carrying out its retaliatory strike against Iran (which I mention below) at around 3 AM Saturday local time. Explosions have been reported in and around the cities of Tehran, Karaj, and Mashhad, and the IDF issued a statement saying that it was conducting “precise strikes on military targets.” With full acknowledgement that it’s too soon to draw any conclusions and social media is not a great source of news, what I’m seeing so far suggests that this was a relatively contained attack. Notably Iranian media seems to be downplaying its severity, which is probably a good sign for anyone hoping to avoid further escalation. We’ll see once the dust settles and there’s a better sense of casualties and damage.
There have been concerns that the Israelis might target Iranian oil and/or nuclear facilities so the “military targets” statement is notable though again it’s too soon to know whether or not it’s actually true. Karaj does have nuclear facilities, but the Iranians moved their centrifuge manufacturing operations from that city to Isfahan a couple of years ago so its importance in the nuclear sector is considerably less than it once was. According to Barak Ravid at Axios, US and Israeli officials are expecting some sort of Iranian response to this attack but are hoping that it will be perfunctory enough that it can end this latest cycle of strikes.
US officials are saying that the Israeli government notified them ahead of the attack but that there was no US involvement in the operation. The US military did move a number of F-16s from Germany into the region on Friday, which raised speculation that the Israeli attack was imminent. The aircraft are there in case of an immediate Iranian response, which at this time does not appear to be forthcoming.
Below is what I’d written prior to news of the Israeli attack.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
+972 Magazine has spoken to people trying to survive the IDF’s latest onslaught on northern Gaza:
Nabil Al-Khatib, 57, and his family were sheltering in a UNRWA school in Beit Lahiya when Israel began bombing the area on Oct. 6. “We thought the school was safe,” he said. But suddenly, they came under heavy fire. Shrapnel flew toward them, lightly wounding eight of Al-Khatib’s children and grandchildren.
“We thought we wouldn’t make it,” Al-Khatib recounted, his voice cracking. “The air was thick with smoke. My youngest was so afraid that she wouldn’t let go of me. I held her tight, telling her it would be over soon, even though I wasn’t sure if it was true. It was the longest night of our lives.”
The morning brought no peace, only a brief lull in the bombardment. The family took advantage of a 15-minute pause in the shelling to flee. “We picked up the children, grabbed whatever we could, and ran,” Al-Khatib recounted. “We left everything behind — our medicines, our lives as we knew them. But we had each other. That’s all that mattered.” The escape route was closed soon after, leaving many trapped behind.
The family managed to find shelter in a small classroom at Abu Zaitoun School near Al-Shati refugee camp, just south of Jabalia. “We’re in Gaza City now, but there’s no relief,” Al-Khatib said. “I see people who have already lost everything: their homes, their families, their limbs. All that’s left is the will to breathe, to stay alive until the next explosion.”
IDF strikes across Gaza overnight and into Friday killed at least 72 people according to officials in the territory. That includes at least 38 killed in a bombing of residential buildings in Khan Younis and at least 12 killed in a drone strike that hit a group of people waiting to receive humanitarian aid in Gaza city. IDF soldiers also stormed the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Jabalia, one of three medical facilities that are still barely functioning in that area.
In other items:
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