World roundup: October 24 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ukraine, Colombia, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
October 24, 1648: The Peace of Westphalia (mostly) ends the Thirty Years’ War. The settlement—which took the form of two treaties, the Treaty of Münster between the Holy Roman Emperor and France and the Treaty of Osnabrück between the Holy Roman Emperor and Sweden—reinforced the idea that the Emperor could not impose religious terms on the empire’s constituent states but also repudiated the idea that state sovereigns had the right to compel their subjects to adopt said sovereign’s chosen religion. It also made Calvinism a legally recognized variant of Christianity and established the legal equality of Catholics and Lutherans. Many IR scholars credit Westphalia with reifying the concept of national sovereignty, with its emphasis on the sanctity of national borders and the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs—hence the term “Westphalian sovereignty.”
October 24, 1912: In the same day, the Ottoman Empire suffers two decisive defeats, one to a Bulgarian army in the Battle of Kirk Kilisse in modern Turkey and the other to a Serbian army in the Battle of Kumanovo in modern North Macedonia. The simultaneous defeats set the tone for the First Balkan War, which had begun on October 8 and would end in May 1913 with a decisive victory for the Balkan League (Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, and Serbia). The Bulgarian victory at Kirk Kilisse gave its armies an open path to Istanbul, though in two battles at Çatalca (on the outskirts of the city) in November and then in February-April, the Ottomans were able first to stop and then to rout the Bulgarian offensive. Thus, although they lost the war, the Ottomans were able to defend their capital and preserve what was left of their empire.
INTERNATIONAL
The United Nations Environment Program released its annual “Emissions Gap” report on Thursday and the findings were probably what you’d have expected—which is to say, the gap between the amount of carbon humanity is emitting and the amount it needs to emit to preserve a moderately sustainable climate remains huge. More importantly, that gap isn’t narrowing—collectively we released a whopping 57.1 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases last year and the report finds no particular reason to believe that number is going to decline appreciably in the near future.
This puts the planet on a path to average temperatures that are 3.1 degrees Celsius higher than “pre-industrial” levels. Recall that the 2015 Paris climate agreement sought to keep warming below 1.5 degrees and established 2 degrees as a bad but still manageable fallback. The new report estimates that even if every country on Earth made good on its commitments to cut greenhouse emissions—a virtual impossibility—that would bring warming down to 2.6 degrees.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
BREAKING: Al Jazeera, based on accounts from members of Gaza’s Civil Defense organization, is reporting that the Israeli military (IDF) carried out a “major massacre” in Jabalia on Thursday evening. Palestinian media is reporting that the IDF leveled at least ten residential buildings in the refugee camp and killed and wounded at least 150 people. That figure may rise as rescue and recovery work continues.
Emergency responders in Gaza are now saying that the Israeli military (IDF) has killed over 770 people since it began its latest assault on the northern part of the territory earlier this month. I’m sure it gets tedious reading this over and over again, but I must stress that this is likely a conservative estimate, given the many witness reports of bodies lying in the streets of Jabalia that most probably have not been included in any official statistics and the likelihood of bodies trapped in rubble that definitely have not been included. Drop Site attempts to describe what seems like almost unimaginable conditions:
On Monday, Al Jazeera correspondent Anas al-Sharif posted a photograph from northern Gaza capturing the Israeli military’s brutal depopulation campaign. In the photo, hundreds of Palestinian men, women, and children crowd together on a bombed-out street, carrying their few belongings in plastic bags. They all face the same direction, as if moving in procession, holding their ID cards up in the air to an Israeli soldier just out of view. The caption reads: “Ethnic Cleansing in Jabaliya 2024.”
For the past 19 days, the Israeli military has waged a concentrated campaign of extermination and ethnic cleansing in northern Gaza, according to medical staff and eyewitnesses who have been speaking to Drop Site News. The IDF has besieged the area with troops, blocked roads, and constructed earthen barriers, while cutting off access to food, water, fuel, and medical supplies. From the air, it has targeted homes, shelters, schools and hospitals with relentless airstrikes. Quadcopters are shooting civilians in the streets. Amid shelling and demolitions on the ground, soldiers have rounded up residents, arresting hundreds and forcing tens of thousands to march south. “This is the first time since the beginning of the war that the occupation army has besieged an area and then begun a campaign of bombing, killing and starvation in such a complete way,” Mahmoud Basal, the spokesperson for the Civil Defense in Gaza, told the Palestinian press agency Safa.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres took to social media to warn that “people suffering under the ongoing Israeli siege in North Gaza are rapidly exhausting all available means for their survival.” I say “warn” though I’m not sure who he’s “warning.” There are two actors with the power to stop the horror in northern Gaza. One, the Israeli government, is perpetrating it. The other, the Biden administration, is clearly at least content with it, empty public rhetoric notwithstanding.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to Qatar on Thursday, where he met with Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani and then declared victory, at least in a technical sense. Blinken announced a resumption of Gaza ceasefire talks “in the coming days,” though there is no indication as to what those talks might entail. For one thing it’s unclear whether either of the principals will actually attend, though both commented positively on Blinken’s announcement and a Hamas delegation met with Egyptian officials to explore the idea of reengaging in negotiations. US and Israeli officials will meet in Doha presently to do likewise.
There doesn’t seem to be any new ceasefire proposal to discuss as yet, but perhaps there will be one by the time any talks happen. Regardless, Blinken’s mission on this latest Middle East trip was to restart negotiations and he’s done that. Presumably the Biden administration’s chief concern right now is being seen to be Doing Something about the carnage ahead of next month’s presidential election. The actual success or failure of the talks is further down the list of priorities.
TURKEY
The German tabloid Bild is claiming (link is in German) that the Indian government is vetoing Turkey’s accession to BRICS because of Ankara’s ties to Pakistan. I would hesitate to put too much stock in this report given the source, but it does seem a bit curious that we haven’t seen any announcement that the bloc has accepted Turkey’s application and this would be a plausible explanation.
SYRIA
The Turkish military struck dozens of targets linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and related organizations in Iraq and Syria overnight and into Thursday, following Wednesday’s attack on Turkish Aerospace Industries’ Ankara headquarters. Turkish authorities are blaming the PKK, whose leadership has so far said it does not know if PKK fighters were involved but is investigating. Details on the Iraqi piece are sparse, but the Syrian Democratic Forces militia is reporting that the Turkish strikes killed at least 12 civilians and wounded another 25 people in Syria.
The IDF attacked targets in Damascus and in Homs province on Thursday, killing at least one Syrian soldier in the capital and wounding another seven people. Not much else seems to be known about this strikes yet. Syrian media is also reporting a car bomb explosion in Damascus but that story seems very sketchy and it’s possible it was the initial reporting around what turned out to be the Israeli airstrike.
LEBANON
According to The Washington Post, the IDF’s invasion of southern Lebanon is not going according to plan:
After a series of staggering losses, Hezbollah is putting up a stiff fight against Israeli forces in Lebanon’s south while continuing to rain down rockets across the border, underscoring the group’s resilience and the limitations of Israel’s ground campaign.
When Israel sent troops across the border on Oct. 1, officials estimated military operations would last for a few weeks. More than three weeks later, officials have said they will likely need a few weeks longer, raising concerns over the kind of mission creep that has defined Israel’s past wars in Lebanon. A resurgent Hezbollah damaged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in a drone attack over the weekend and has warned a “new escalatory phase” is coming.
The militant group has bounced back from its unprecedented setbacks — including the penetration of its electronic devices and the assassination of most of its senior leadership — thanks to a flexible command structure, help from Iran and years of planning for an Israeli invasion, current and former Lebanese officials said. Israeli officials, for their part, contend that the group remains significantly weakened and operations on the ground in Lebanon are going according to plan.
The French government hosted a conference on Thursday to raise money for humanitarian relief efforts in Lebanon that brought in some $800 million in pledges, but if there were any hopes that it might advance the conflict toward a diplomatic settlement those proved to for naught. None of the attendees had any real influence over the situation (the Israeli government was absent, for example), and that includes acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati. He did solicit donations to support the Lebanese army (some $200 million in total) and pledged to put another 8000 soldiers on the ground in southern Lebanon to help enforce a ceasefire in the unlikely event one should manifest.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
A bombing killed at least one person (a child) and wounded another 11 in a Kabul market on Wednesday. There’s been no claim of responsibility as yet but it’s probably safe to assume Islamic State involvement unless somebody else steps forward.
PAKISTAN
Pakistani soldiers killed at least nine militants in Kyber Pakhtunkhwa province overnight and were reportedly engaged in another firefight with militants in a different part of the province on Thursday. Details as to the second incident are unclear but the overnight action took place during a raid on a militant hideout. As far as I know authorities haven’t identified the militants. They were likely members of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), though there is also an IS presence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Elsewhere, police killed at least ten militants in a clash in Punjab province on Thursday. This incident took place in an area where the TTP has been known to operate in the past.
Meanwhile, Pakistani authorities on Thursday released Bushra Bibi, wife of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, on bail. She and her husband were convicted and sentenced back in January to 14 years in prison on allegations of keeping and selling state gifts, charges Khan and his supporters insist are fabricated. Given that Bibi and Khan were convicted and sentenced on the same charges it’s reasonable to speculate that Khan might be released on bail as well, though there’s no indication of that as yet and the Pakistani government may look to keep him imprisoned for political reasons.
JAPAN
Japanese voters will head to the polls on Sunday for the snap parliamentary election that new Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru called earlier this month, and the polling looks uniformly bad for his Liberal Democratic Party. Surveys have suggested that the LDP could lose its sole majority in the Japanese House of Representatives for the first time since 2009, and now there are polls suggesting that the party and its regular coalition partner, Komeito, might not even be able to form a majority collectively. They would presumably approach another minor party about joining the coalition.
Ishiba was aiming to capitalize on what he assumed would be a “honeymoon” period with voters following his accession, but between the party’s scandals and economic anxiety it would appear he didn’t get one of those. What he might get is a quick exit as PM and party leader if the outcome is especially dismal for the LDP.
AFRICA
SOMALIA
The Somali government has installed “thousands” of security cameras across Mogadishu in an effort to suss out and respond more quickly to attacks by al-Shabab militants in the city. However, militants aren’t simply acquiescing to this new state of affairs—they’ve reportedly attacked several businesses with cameras installed this month, killing at least three people and leaving another four injured. Al-Shabab members are apparently visiting shop owners and threatening them unless they take the cameras down, but those same shop owners are under threat from Somali authorities to leave them in place.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi announced on Wednesday that he intends to empanel a “national commission” next year for the purpose of rewriting the country’s 2006 constitution. Tshisekedi has criticized the Congolese constitution in the past, referring to it as “outdated,” and in his comments on Wednesday he complained that it was “drafted abroad and by foreigners.” Critics are warning that he may attempt to use the new constitution as a vehicle to get around the current two-term limit for presidents (Tshisekedi is in his second and theoretically final term). He has not done anything to quash those warnings, arguing that presidential term limits are up to the “people” to determine.
MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambique’s National Election Commission (CNE) on Thursday declared the ruling Frelimo party’s candidate, Daniel Chapo, the winner of the country’s October 9 presidential election. Official results give Chapo over 70 percent of the vote, well ahead of runner up Venancio Mondlane’s 20ish percent. Mondlane has already declared himself the winner and is unsurprisingly rejecting these official figures. Two officials in Mondlane’s Podemos party were gunned down in Maputo on Saturday, ahead of protests that took place on Monday. Whether he won legitimately or not, Chapo will become the first Mozambican president born after the country achieved independence in 1975.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to confirm the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia during a press conference on Thursday. He didn’t outright acknowledge it, but when asked about satellite imagery that the South Korean government has cited as proof that North Korean personnel have entered Russia Putin reportedly said “images are a serious thing; if there are images, they reflect something.” He also referred to the treaty that he and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed earlier this year that the Russian parliament coincidentally ratified on Thursday. That treaty, as it happens, includes a mutual defense clause.
With that in mind, Ukrainian intelligence is now claiming that North Korean soldiers have been deployed—not to Ukraine, however, but to Kursk oblast, where Ukrainian forces continue to occupy a stretch of territory on Russia’s side of the border. North Korea’s involvement in repelling an invasion of Russian soil would be in keeping with the treaty and might be viewed as less provocative than deploying them to serve in the Ukrainian offensive. Of course the North Koreans could wind up in Ukraine eventually as well.
Elsewhere, The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Yemen’s Houthi movement has had Russian help in carrying out attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping:
Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilizing the region.
The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.
The assistance, which hasn’t been previously reported, shows how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to go to undermine the U.S.-led Western economic and political order. Russia, in this case, supported the Iran-backed Houthis, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group, as they carried out a series of attacks in one of the world’s most heavily traveled shipping routes.
More broadly, Russia has sought to stoke instability from the Middle East to Asia to create problems for the U.S., analysts say. The widening conflict in the Middle East, triggered by last year’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, has absorbed resources and attention at a time when Washington has sought to focus on the threats from Russia and China.
UKRAINE
Russian media is reporting that the country’s forces have made a significant breakthrough into the town of Selydove in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. This probably can’t be confirmed, at least unless/until the Russians seize the town altogether. Selydove is a short distance south of Pokrovsk and its seizure could be the Russians’ final step before they undertake a full scale assault on that city.
Meanwhile POLITICO reports on the substantial but largely behind the scenes resistance to the idea of Ukraine joining NATO. Alliance members have publicly talked about Kyiv’s eventual membership or path toward membership, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made a guarantee of NATO accession part of his vaunted “victory plan.” But the US and German governments have reportedly taken the lead in chilling the idea of Ukrainian accession, and according to POLITICO several other NATO members are also hesitant but they’re letting the two heavyweights take the lead for now. A couple, Hungary and Slovakia, are resisting out of affinity for Moscow, but the others are hesitant because of concerns that admitting Ukraine will invite an eventual war with Russia.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
The AP reports on indigenous communities in Colombia that are trying to adapt to a drying Amazon River:
The Amazon River naturally fluctuates during the dry and rainy seasons. But since last year a dramatic drop has been evident, most critical in Brazil. Now the phenomenon is spreading into other Amazon nations, wreaking havoc on local economies and food supplies.
In Colombia, the river’s fall has isolated some rural Indigenous communities, prompting nonprofits and the government to deliver water and food to places that depend on rain and river water to survive. In some communities, it’s an arduous hourlong walk along the dried-up areas to get basic supplies. In other areas, schoolchildren have to walk two hours to get to their classes as boats are unable to drop them close by.
Water levels decreased between 80% and 90% in the past few months, Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management said last month.
“I’ve been very concerned, particularly for the Indigenous communities that are affected the most because all the food has already run out,” said Álvaro Sarmiento, head of operations for the Colombian Civil Defense in the Amazonas province at Leticia’s port. “For Indigenous people, fishing is their main source of food.”
MEXICO
The Mexican military is claiming that soldiers killed 19 suspected Sinaloa cartel members in a shootout in Sinaloa state’s capital city, Culiacán, on Monday. Cartel gunmen attacked a group of soldiers, sparking the clash. Sinaloa continues to be rocked by violence as factions of the cartel battle for control. The gunmen involved in Monday’s incident are believed to have been part of the faction backing Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who is in custody in the US.
HAITI
According to the UN, a new wave of gang violence in Port-au-Prince has displaced some 10,000 people over the past week. The gang alliance that already controls much of the Haitian capital appears to be making a play for neighborhoods that have not yet come under its sway, though they’ve met resistance from police so far.
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Washington Post continues its series on the knock-on effects of US sanctions with a look at some of the policy’s biggest beneficiaries: lobbyists:
A sharp increase in U.S. sanctions has spawned a new lobbying industry in Washington, as businesses and governments around the world attempt to shape these economic penalties by hiring former U.S. officials to leverage their connections, a Washington Post investigation has found.
An avalanche of cash from abroad has flowed to former lawmakers and aides from both parties with experience at some of the highest levels of American government. One firm founded by several former senior Treasury Department officials has reaped tens of millions of dollars from the United Arab Emirates, which several watchdog groups, including Transparency International, describe as a hub of money laundering. Regimes accused of human rights abuses have turned to former members of Congress for help with sanctions. And a raft of foreign business entities — Kremlin oligarchs, Chinese tech firms, a Serbian arms dealer — has hired lobbyists to try to roll back economic penalties, or have them imposed on rivals.
Foreign spending on sanctions-related lobbying has surged from roughly $6 million in 2014 to at least $31 million in 2022, the last year for which complete records are available, The Post found in reviewing Justice Department filings — a more than fivefold increase that mirrors the explosion in U.S. sanctions. Spending by domestic firms topped $353 million last year, The Post found, up from $97 million in 1998.