World roundup: October 22 2020
Stories from Lebanon, Azerbaijan, Sudan, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 21, 1096: The “People’s Crusade” ends
October 21, 1600: Tokugawa Ieyasu’s army defeats the “Western Army” of Ishida Mitsunari at the Battle of Sekigahara. The victory left Ieyasu in virtually uncontested control of Japan and is generally marked as the beginning of the Tokugawa Shogunate, even though Ieyasu wasn’t formally appointed shōgun until 1603.
October 21, 1805: A British Royal Navy fleet under Horatio Nelson (who was killed in action) decisively defeats a combined Franco-Spanish fleet at the Battle of Trafalgar, near Cape Trafalgar in southern Spain. Britain had established naval supremacy over France years earlier through engagements like the 1798 Battle of the Nile. Trafalgar confirmed that naval supremacy and was the last major naval engagement of the Napoleonic wars. Napoleon’s plan to build a great new navy that would finally defeat Britain’s was derailed by his defeat on land years later.
English painter J. M. W. Turner’s 1823-ish The Battle of Trafalgar interestingly depicts multiple scenes from different points in the battle in one static image (Wikimedia Commons)
October 22, 1633: Ming China’s navy defeats a Dutch East India Company fleet at the Battle of Liaoluo Bay, in the Taiwan Strait. The battle reestablished Chinese authority in the strait (though they subsequently negotiated very generous trade concessions with the Dutch) and was the largest naval engagement between Chinese and European fleets until the Opium Wars.
October 22, 1884: The International Meridian Conference, which was a real thing, designates the line of longitude running through the Royal Observatory at Greenwich as the international Prime Meridian. Previously most major seafaring countries, at least, designated their individual prime meridians that often ran through their capital cities (Germany used the “Berlin Meridian,” for example, and France used the “Paris Meridian”). But such was the ubiquity of British map-making that the UK prime meridian, which ran through Greenwich, eventually became the international standard by default even before the conference made it official. Nowadays the international Prime Meridian is the IERS Reference Meridian, which still runs through Greenwich but is around 100 meters east of the previous one.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 22:
41,967,206 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (9,647,683 active, +477,751 since yesterday)
1,142,161 reported fatalities (+6464 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
5267 confirmed coronavirus cases (+43)
260 reported fatalities (+3)
US Central Command says it killed 14 members of “al-Qaeda in Syria” in a drone strike in the Salqin region of Idlib province on Thursday. It’s always unclear to me what CENTCOM means by “al-Qaeda in Syria,” but the target seems to have been a meeting of several jihadist leaders, at least some of whom were with former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Elsewhere, the Mufti of Damascus, Mohammed Adnan Afiouni, was killed Thursday by a roadside bomb in a town just west of the Syrian capital. No group has claimed responsibility. Afiouni has been one of Bashar al-Assad’s primary mediators in negotiations with Syrian rebel groups and was most recently appointed to run a center charged with “combating terrorism,” however the Syrian government chooses to define that term.
LEBANON
67,027 confirmed coronavirus cases (+1450)
552 reported fatalities (+16)
Saad al-Hariri is officially back in as Lebanese prime minister, provided of course he can put together a cabinet that wins parliamentary support. Lebanese President Michel Aoun made the absurd decision to name the ultra-political Hariri to lead what is supposed to be an apolitical “technocratic” government for two reasons. The first is that French President Emmanuel Macron, who has led the effort to pressure Lebanese politicians to appoint that “technocratic” government, likes Hariri personally and will overlook the incongruity of this appointment. The second is that, while Hariri has shown himself manifestly incapable of competently serving as PM, he’s also proven to be the only Sunni politician left in Lebanon who can actually garner enough support to become PM.
Although Hariri has repeatedly promised to appoint a cabinet full of “non-politically aligned experts” charged with carrying out major “reforms” of the Lebanese political system, in order to win the support he needed to take office he’s almost certainly horse traded control of at least the major ministries to Lebanon’s various political factions. Which means Lebanese politics have been transformed so much by the protests and the disasters of the past year that they’ve wound up right back where they started, or something like that. The more things change, etc.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
308,247 confirmed cases (+912) in Israel, 49,134 confirmed cases (+506) in Palestine
2319 reported fatalities (+28) in Israel, 435 reported fatalities (+8) in Palestine
The Israeli military says that somebody fired two rockets out of Gaza late Thursday to no apparent effect. I haven’t yet seen any reports of Israeli retaliation but one is probably forthcoming.
The Trump administration is apparently planning to roll out a new initiative whereby they start accusing international human rights groups of being antisemitic because they catalogue Israeli abuses in the Occupied Territories. Sounds like a real winner. The idea is the brainchild (I use that term loosely) of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and should be a big hit on the Israeli right, thereby ensuring that Trump wins Jerusalem’s…well, I’m sure it has some electoral votes, but I can’t seem to find how many. It should also be a bit hit among far right Christians in the US, a demographic that is already overwhelmingly supportive of Trump, in part because he’s doing so much to usher in the End of Days.
EGYPT
106,060 confirmed cases (+177)
6166 reported fatalities (+11)
Speaking of international human rights groups, Human Rights Watch says that the Egyptian government—another US client—executed 49 people just between October 3 and October 13. It had to piece this information together from media reports, since Egyptian authorities are so secretive about their execution fetish that they typically don’t even inform the decedent’s family. Those executed included a mix of people imprisoned for politically-motivated violence and/or terrorism and others imprisoned for non-political acts of violence. We can be sure that none of them received a fair trial because that’s not how the Egyptian legal system rolls.
We can also be sure that the upcoming Egyptian parliamentary election, which starts Saturday and will end whenever President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi decides turnout is high enough, will be a farce, because that is how Egyptian politics rolls. A party called “The Nation’s Future” (Hizb Mustaqbal Watan in Arabic) is expected to do well and carry Sisi’s water in the upcoming term. Even if the voting weren’t itself rigged, which it is, Egypt’s parliament is barely even a rubber stamp so the outcome is virtually irrelevant.
SAUDI ARABIA
343,774 confirmed cases (+401)
5250 reported fatalities (+15)
People across Saudi Arabia have apparently started boycotting Turkish products, presumably because Turkey has aligned itself with Qatar but who knows? The boycott has been spearheaded by the Saudi Chamber of Commerce, which gives it the veneer of being a spontaneous grassroots sort of enterprise. The Saudi government has rhetorically distanced itself from the campaign, because if it does anything to suggest official approval then Ankara could lodge a complaint with the World Trade Organization. While the Turkish economy is hurting and every little bit of lost commerce is bad news, you’ll undoubtedly be shocked to learn that the loss of the Saudi market is unlikely to be the thing that tips Turkey into a depression.
IRAN
550,757 confirmed cases (+5471)
31,650 reported fatalities (+304)
The Iranian government summoned the Swiss ambassador on Thursday to complain about the Trump administration’s accusation that Iranian hackers are behind a spate of threatening emails purportedly sent by the Proud Boys militia to voters in several US states. Once again I’d like to apologize to Swiss Ambassador Markus Leitner, who has regularly been obliged to answer for things his own government hasn’t done simply because of the vagaries of the US-Iran diplomatic relationship.
Speaking of the alleged election shenanigans, the Trump administration on Thursday levied new sanctions against five Iranian entities, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for what feels like the ten millionth time, over the alleged scheme to…well, I really don’t know. Scare people into voting for Donald Trump? Scandalize people into voting for Joe Biden? Confuse people into not voting at all? Any or all of the above? Anyway the sanctions are for broader, unspecified “election interference,” not necessarily just the emails. We can be sure that Iran was behind the email scam because of a “dumb mistake” the hackers made that people in the Trump administration caught despite also being pretty dumb themselves. They can’t really say what the dumb mistake was or make their evidence public but we should absolutely trust them because if there are two things that have earned the benefit of the doubt in this crazy world they’re the US national security establishment and Donald Trump.
The administration has also apparently blacklisted Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, Iraj Masjedi, over allegations that he’s been working with Iran-aligned militias that have been attacking US forces in Iraq.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
47,418 confirmed cases (+825)
648 reported fatalities (+6)
The Azerbaijani military has apparently made further advances in the area around the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and Azerbaijani officials now say they control their entire Iranian border. While there’s no reason to believe any claims either side makes in this conflict, where the information war is frequently as heated as the actual war, independent analysts have been able to confirm recent Azerbaijani conquests. Casualty figures are another story. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the number of dead since this conflict began almost a month ago is “nearing 5000,” which is far more than either the Azerbaijanis or Armenians have been willing to acknowledge. Azerbaijani officials still won’t acknowledge any military casualties, maybe because many of them have (allegedly) been Syrian mercenaries.
KYRGYZSTAN
54,006 confirmed cases (+547)
1122 reported fatalities (+4)
The Kyrgyz parliament voted Thursday to postpone a planned parliamentary election from December until at least next June, mostly in order to allow prime minister and acting president Sadyr Japarov to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. As acting president, Japarov is constitutionally prohibited from being a candidate for president in an election. So he could pursue constitutional changes that allow him to run for the presidency. On the other hand, he could pursue constitutional changes that strip the presidency of its authority and make the office of prime minister the principle executive office in the country. Either way, he and the parliament will be tackling some kind of constitutional change, probably involving a referendum, before they redoing the nullified elections from earlier this month. The changes could include other reforms, like lowering the threshold for a party to win seats in parliament to three percent from its current, restrictive level of seven percent. Kyrgyzstan could still hold a presidential election in the interim, but that seems unlikely.
AFGHANISTAN
40,626 confirmed cases (+116)
1505 reported fatalities (+4)
Suspected Taliban rocket fire killed at least four civilians on Thursday in Afghanistan’s northern Faryab province. Two more civilians and three police officers were killed by a roadside bomb, also probably Taliban property, in Helmand province late Wednesday. Meanwhile, a government airstrike in Takhar province, also late Wednesday, that authorities claim killed 12 Taliban fighters appears to have instead killed at least 12 civilians. That strike targeted a village mosque and its school, so it perhaps comes as little surprise that 11 of the dead are said to have been children.
THAILAND
3719 confirmed cases (+10)
59 reported fatalities (+0)
The Thai government on Thursday terminated the state of emergency it imposed over Bangkok last week in an effort to quell pro-democracy protests. The emergency decree was a failure in that sense, and its repeal may embolden the protesters, who have now given Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha a three day ultimatum to resign. Tens of thousands of them gathered in Bangkok again on Thursday to restate their demands.
CHINA
85,729 confirmed cases (+14) on the mainland, 5281 confirmed cases (+11) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 105 reported fatalities (+0) in Hong Kong
The US State Department designated six more Chinese media outlets as agents of the Chinese government on Wednesday, making a total of 15 entities that have been so designated by the Trump administration. The designation places those outlets under tighter restrictions than most foreign media are under. Beijing will almost certainly retaliate in some way.
AFRICA
SUDAN
13,724 confirmed cases (+0)
836 reported fatalities (+0)
An Israeli delegation, accompanied by unspecified “US officials,” visited Khartoum on Thursday amid rampant speculation of an imminent normalization agreement between Sudan and Israel. Reports are that interim Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who’s been resisting normalization despite considerable pressure—both from the US and from the military side of Sudan’s hybrid transitional government—for fear of a public backlash, has acquiesced to the idea provided it passes the Sudanese parliament. Which is kind of a clever hedge by Hamdok, because Sudan doesn’t currently have an interim parliament and it’s unclear when, or whether, it’s going to get one. Still, Hamdok can probably only hold out so long before the military faction convinces him to change his mind, overrules him, or removes him altogether.
Hamdok’s fears of a public backlash may be misguided, in the sense that the Sudanese government is already facing a public backlash over the continued sorry state of the Sudanese economy. At least one person was killed and 14 more wounded on Wednesday when security forces opened fire on a group of protesters in Khartoum. If normalizing relations with Israel is the key to unlocking international financial aid to stabilize that economy, it’s possible the Sudanese public will welcome it. On the other hand, the idea of normalizing ties with Israel—long a non starter with the Sudanese people—may just feed a larger uprising against the interim authorities.
GUINEA
11,635 confirmed cases (+36)
71 reported fatalities (+1)
Official results won’t be known until Saturday at the earliest, but the partial vote count in Guinea’s presidential election still has incumbent Alpha Condé with a clear lead, despite challenger Cellou Dalein Diallo’s post-election claim of victory. Clashes between supporters of the two candidates, and between opposition supporters and Guinean security forces, have been taking place all week in Conakry and across the country, and those same security forces have now reportedly surrounded Diallo’s home. It’s a very combustible situation, is what I’m saying here.
IVORY COAST
20,390 confirmed cases (+27)
121 reported fatalities (+0)
Speaking of combustible situations, six people have reportedly been killed in the Ivorian town of Dabou this week, and that country hasn’t even had its controversial presidential election yet. Like Condé, Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara is trying to win a constitutionally questionable third term, and as in Guinea that’s led to considerable pre-election unrest. More than 20 people have been killed since Ouattara finalized his plan to run back in August. The election is scheduled for October 31, but opposition leaders have talked about a boycott that could delegitimize the process. On Thursday, they rejected a government offer to drop their boycott calls in exchange for a “reform” of the country’s electoral commission, which the opposition argues is enthralled to Ouattara.
NIGERIA
61,805 confirmed cases (+138)
1127 reported fatalities (+2)
Violence between police and armed gangs continued in Lagos on Thursday, even as Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari made a public plea for calm. Tensions remain high after police killed at least 12 protesters in the city earlier this week. Gangs of men armed with machetes have been observed moving around the city even as the protests have died down following the imposition of a curfew. It’s unclear whether these gangs are made up of protesters or represent something else entirely.
SEYCHELLES
151 confirmed cases (+0)
No reported fatalities
The Seychelles began its general election on Thursday, with voting to run through Saturday for president and parliament. Incumbent President Danny Faure is likely to win the first round, given that the Seychellois opposition failed to coalesce behind a single candidate, but it remains to be seen whether he can avoid a runoff.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
1,463,306 confirmed cases (+15,971)
25,242 reported fatalities (+290)
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed Thursday to have prevented a terrorist bombing in Moscow. Authorities stopped a man said to be of Central Asian origins who had ties to a terrorist group and “planned to travel to a combat zone in the Middle East to participate in the activities of terrorist groups” before he could attack a government office building. And if it sounds like I’m being overly vague, well, those are all the details that the Russians seem to have made available.
SPAIN
1,090,521 confirmed cases (+20,986)
34,521 reported fatalities (+155)
The far-right Spanish Vox party put forward a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Thursday only to see it overwhelmingly defeated, with even the conservative People’s Party opting to vote against it rather than abstain.
AMERICAS
MEXICO
867,559 confirmed cases (+6845)
87,415 reported fatalities (+522)
The Mexican government on Thursday managed to find agreement with the Trump administration on a plan to fulfill Mexico’s obligations under the terms of a 1944 treaty governing the distribution of waters along the Rio Grande. Reports that the Mexican government was preparing to tap a local dam to make up for its overuse of those waters had sparked unrest in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua. The details of the agreement are unclear but they apparently involve tapping some international dams instead, which should spare farmers in northern Mexico who are already struggling under a regional drought.
UNITED STATES
8,661,651 confirmed cases (+74,301)
228,381 reported fatalities (+973)
Finally, foreign policy analyst Matthew Duss argues in Foreign Affairs that it’s time for the United States to reckon with the devastation it’s wrought upon the world since the start of the War on Terror:
In a 1996 essay in Foreign Affairs, the conservative authors William Kristol and Robert Kagan proposed a U.S. foreign policy of “benevolent global hegemony.” Scoffing at former President John Quincy Adams’s maxim that America “goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy,” they asked, “But why not? The alternative is to leave monsters on the loose, ravaging and pillaging to their hearts’ content, as Americans stand by and watch.” In Kristol and Kagan’s view, it was the United States’ responsibility to sally forth and slay—an argument they reprised years later as two of the biggest advocates for the Iraq war.
The last two decades have revealed the folly of this hubris. With the declaration of its global “war on terror” after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States went abroad in search of monsters and ended up midwifing new ones—from terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (or ISIS), born in the prisons of U.S.-occupied Iraq; to destabilization and deepening sectarianism across the Middle East; to racist authoritarian movements in Europe and in the United States that feed—and feed off of—the fear of refugees fleeing those regional conflicts. Advocates of the war on terror believed that nationalist chauvinism, which sometimes travels under the name “American exceptionalism,” could be stoked at a controlled burn to sustain American hegemony. Instead, and predictably, toxic ultranationalism burned out of control. Today, the greatest security threat to the United States comes not from any terrorist group, or from any great power, but from domestic political dysfunction. The election of Donald Trump as president was a product and accelerant of that dysfunction—but not its cause. The environment for his political rise was prepared over a decade and a half of xenophobic, messianic Washington warmongering, with roots going back into centuries of white supremacist politics.
The United States has an opportunity to change course. But doing so will require honestly accounting for the destruction that the current course has wrought. The United States will have to reckon with the scale of the disaster it has helped inflict on the world—and on itself—through three presidencies. To that end, the next administration should undertake a comprehensive review, along the lines of the 9/11 Commission or the 2006 Iraq Study Group, to explore the consequences of U.S. antiterrorism policy since 9/11: surveillance, detention, torture, extrajudicial killing, the use of manned and unmanned airstrikes, and partnerships with repressive regimes. The review should include perspectives outside of the usual national security circles, such as those of nongovernmental and grassroots advocacy organizations, minority communities that have experienced the most severe domestic effects of U.S. antiterrorism policies, and civilians in countries where the United States has waged war.