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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 19, 1469: Prince Ferdinand of Aragon marries Infanta Isabella of Castile in the marriage that would eventually unite the two kingdoms and lead to the formation of Spain.

The 15th century wedding portrait of the happy (?) couple (Wikimedia Commons)
October 19, 1781: The Siege of Yorktown ends with a French-American victory over the British army under Lord Charles Cornwallis. The surrender of an entire British army marked the effective end of the American Revolution.
October 20, 1448: The Second Battle of Kosovo ends
October 20, 1962: Chinese forces attack India in two disputed border regions—Ladakh in the west and the Tibet-Arunachal Pradesh region in the east, beginning the month-long Sino-Indian War. The conflict ended with a decisive Chinese victory that stabilized the still poorly defined Chinese-Indian border on Beijing’s terms.
October 20, 2011: With the tide of Libya’s civil war having turned decisively against him, thanks in no small measure to NATO’s intervention, a fleeing Muammar Gaddafi is captured by rebels west of the city of Sirte and summarily executed. This of course brought the war to a decisive conclu-just kidding. Had you there for a minute, didn’t I?
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 20:
41,023,149 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (9,274,792 active, +381,716 since yesterday)
1,128,938 reported fatalities (+6145 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
5180 confirmed coronavirus cases (+46)
254 reported fatalities (+3)
The Turkish military has withdrawn from Morek, the largest of the 12 observation posts it’s been operating in northwestern Syria back in 2018 to monitor a ceasefire that didn’t take. The post has been surrounded by the Syrian military for over a year, as have a number of the other 11. It seems likely that it will not be the last one abandoned by the Turks, since they don’t really serve their intended purpose and are a source of irritation between Turkey and Russia.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
306,162 confirmed cases (+1286) in Israel, 48,129 confirmed cases (+513) in Palestine
2278 reported fatalities (+15) in Israel, 421 reported fatalities (+8) in Palestine
The Israeli military announced Tuesday that it had discovered a tunnel running under the Gaza fence, a few hours before reporting that a rocket had been fired out of the Palestinian enclave. It’s unclear whether those two things are connected in some way. Israeli air defenses reportedly intercepted the rocket, and then the Israeli military retaliated with airstrikes on at least two targets affiliated with Hamas in Gaza. There’s been no report of any casualties in the exchange.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
117,594 confirmed cases (+1077)
470 reported fatalities (+4)
Israeli and Emirati officials held a signing ceremony at Ben Gurion Airport on Tuesday to ring in their diplomatic normalization agreement and to announce visa-free travel between their countries. The legislatures in both countries have now ratified the “Abraham Accords,” which was a formality but does mean the normalization agreement is now officially in place.
SAUDI ARABIA
342,968 confirmed cases (+385)
5217 reported fatalities (+16)
Jamal Khashoggi’s former fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, has filed a lawsuit in Washington against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over Khashoggi’s 2018 murder. Joining her is the human rights organization Democracy for the Arab World Now, which was founded by Khashoggi and says its operations have suffered since his death. MBS almost certainly ordered the 2018 hit on Khashoggi, which took place in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, though he’s denied it and the rest of the world has by now mostly decided to let bygones be bygones, which is awfully understanding of them.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
45,879 confirmed cases (+584)
635 reported fatalities (+5)
I don’t know how many different ways there are to say “fighting continued in Nagorno-Karabakh today despite the ceasefire that’s still supposed to be in place between Azerbaijani and Armenian/Karabakh forces.” So consider this another one. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev tweeted a list of territorial gains he says his army has made, but there’s no indication when it made them and Armenian officials are denying his claims altogether. If you’re looking for new developments, it seems that Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov are heading to Washington for talks (separately) with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. There’s no real reason to think Pompeo can succeed in brokering a durable ceasefire, but I suppose it can’t hurt to try.
KYRGYZSTAN
52,910 confirmed cases (+384)
1113 reported fatalities (+2)
Just when you thought it was safe to hit the streets of Bishkek again (work with me here), Kyrgyz politics may be facing another upheaval:
Kyrgyzstan’s security services say they have arrested Rayimbek Matraimov, a notorious and politically influential former deputy head of the customs service who is alleged to have made hundreds of millions of dollars from smuggling.
The State Committee for National Security said in a statement on October 20 that Matraimov has since 2016 operated a corrupt scheme to “extract shadow income during [his] administration of the customs system.”
The arrest stands – so long as it is followed by a thorough investigation and prosecution – to entirely upset the country’s current political order, which has already been convulsed by the rise to power of recently released convict Sadyr Japarov. Matraimov is widely believed to have sponsored allies in the ruling elite and his removal from the scene would signal a major shift.
Matraimov supported (or was at least tolerated by) former Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov. His role in the unrest that led to Jeenbekov’s ouster and Japarov’s sudden rise to power remains murky, as do many other things about his wealth and influence in Kyrgyz politics. He’s reportedly already agreed to make a payment to the Kyrgyz treasury to compensate for his corruption, though whether that will be enough to get him entirely off the hook remains to be seen. Japarov, who has his own alleged links to criminal enterprises, may see an opening to use Matraimov as a way to demonstrate his own anti-corruption bona fides.
INDIA
7,649,158 confirmed cases (+54,422)
115,950 reported fatalities (+714)
The Indian government on Tuesday released the Chinese soldier their border guards detained in Ladakh over the weekend into Chinese custody. Chinese officials are claiming that he wandered across the Line of Actual Control into Indian territory while helping a herder find some missing yaks. It’s all very innocent, in addition to being simple and believable. Regardless of why he crossed the poorly defined border, the release could serve as an inflection point for Indian and Chinese authorities to begin genuinely deescalating their ongoing border tensions.
MALAYSIA
22,225 confirmed cases (+862)
193 reported fatalities (+3)
Goldman Sachs has reportedly agreed to pay a whopping $2.8 billion fine to the US government and confess to its role in the embezzlement of funds from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund—AKA the “1MDB Scandal.” Two Goldman bankers are alleged to have been among a large crowd of financiers who helped enable Malaysian officials, including former Prime Minister Najib Razak, to raid the fund in the early 2010s. The fine is substantial enough that it may take some time for Goldman to recoup its los-oh, they’ve already recouped it? When could they have-oh, just this afternoon? Well, um, I’m sure they still feel real bad about what they did.
INDONESIA
368,842 confirmed cases (+3602)
12,734 reported fatalities (+117)
According to Reuters, the Indonesian government has turned down multiple requests from the US government this year to allow the US Navy to refuel its P-8 surveillance aircraft at Indonesian facilities. The US Navy conducts P-8 flights around the Asia-Pacific region to monitor Chinese military activity, but while Jakarta has its own concerns about China it seems to have been taken aback by the US requests and is unwilling to take such an overtly anti-Beijing step.
AFRICA
SUDAN
13,724 confirmed cases (+0)
836 reported fatalities (+0)
The Sudanese government has reportedly already sent its $335 million payout to victims (and the families of victims) of past al-Qaeda terrorist attacks to the United States, fulfilling its main official obligation for removal from the State Department’s list of terrorism sponsors. Sudan doesn’t really have $335 million to spare at the moment, but removal from the terrorism list should open enough financial doors that it will be able to recoup its investment. As for its unofficial obligation for removal, it’s unclear when Sudanese officials plan to announce that they’re normalizing relations with Israel but it may be a little while. Sudan’s interim government will likely wait at least until the official removal from the list so it doesn’t look like such an obvious quid pro quo, and it may take an even slower approach to try to warm the Sudanese public up to the idea of normalization, step by step, before proceeding.
MALI
3411 confirmed cases (+4)
132 reported fatalities (+0)
The Malian military says it’s carried out an airdrop to deliver humanitarian supplies to the village of Farabougou, in central Mali. About 2000 mostly Bambara civilians are under siege there by attackers who are believed to be jihadist, though it’s unclear whether they’re aligned with the Islamic State, or al-Qaeda, or neither/both. The Bambara are one of a number of predominantly farming communities in central Mali who have clashed with the predominantly herding Fulani community, from which Islamist groups draw a fair number of recruits by exploiting these sorts of local grievances.
NIGERIA
61,630 confirmed cases (+72)
1125 reported fatalities (+0)
Political unrest is continuing to escalate in Nigeria. The state government in Lagos on Tuesday imposed a 24 hour curfew to suppress demonstrations like that one that effectively shut down the city of Lagos on Monday. Then, later in the day, police reportedly opened fire on a group of demonstrators apparently defying the curfew in the city of Lagos. At this point confirmed details are in short supply, but witnesses report seeing “multiple bodies” on the ground, with the BBC quoting one who claims to have seen “20 bodies.” Considering these protests began with calls to disband Nigerians notorious (and since disbanded) Special Anti-Robbery Squad over rampant brutality allegations, this incident is likely to inflame the situation and could spawn larger uprisings in Lagos as well as elsewhere.
CHAD
1399 confirmed cases (+9)
93 reported fatalities (+0)
Boko Haram fighters reportedly killed at least six Chadian soldiers and wounded 12 others on Tuesday when they attacked a patrol in the Lake Chad region. Chadian officials say their forces killed ten insurgents in the battle.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
11,066 confirmed cases (+14)
303 reported fatalities (+0)
Somebody broke more than 1300 people out of a prison in the eastern Congolese city of Beni early Tuesday. Authorities believe the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces militia was responsible, and the Islamic State later claimed the attack under the auspices of its Central African Province, a catchall moniker it uses for a number of groups in central and southern Africa whose actual links to IS are generally considered weak at best. At least two inmates were killed amid the jailbreak.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
1,431,635 confirmed cases (+16,319)
24,635 reported fatalities (+269)
The Russian and US governments suddenly pivoted in the direction of arms control on Tuesday, when Moscow apparently dropped its previous opposition to a temporary cap on the total number of nuclear weapons held by both countries. That brings Russia closer to the Trump administration’s most recent demand for a one year extension of the New START agreement, buying everybody 12 months to negotiate a more durable arms control treaty. However, reporter Laura Rozen says there are still disagreements that need to be ironed out around the issue of verification:
The elements of a potential verification agreement still to be worked out are not simple matters, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.
“The two sides are closer than they were a week ago, but there are still important differences,” Kimball told Diplomatic. “The two sides have to agree on counting rules, it has to have a stockpile declaration, and some sort of monitoring and verification process. Those are not simple matters.”
“The current U.S. proposal calls for a verifiable one year cap on the total number of U.S. and Russian strategic and nonstrategic warheads, and a one year extension of the new START treaty,” Kimball continued. “The Russian statement this morning...said a freeze can be implemented on the understanding that it will not be accompanied by any additional demands by the U.S. That to me implies that they don’t want to, or don’t think there is time, to work out details on verification. It is not a complete capitulation to the U.S. position.”
AMERICAS
BOLIVIA
139,890 confirmed cases (+119)
8502 reported fatalities (+21)
A partial official count of the votes in Sunday’s Bolivian presidential election seems to confirm what exit polling and preliminary quick counts also showed: a decisive first round victory for Movement for Socialism (MAS) candidate Luis Arce. With 60 percent of the vote counted, Reuters reported earlier today that Arce had 50.1 percent of the vote, well ahead of runner up Carlos Mesa at around 32 percent and more than enough to avoid a runoff (in Bolivia, candidates can win outright in the first round if they finish with over 50 percent of the vote or if they take over 40 percent and finish more than ten points ahead of the second place candidate). Given that later reporting areas tend to be poorer and more rural—regions in which MAS traditionally does well—Arce’s vote total could climb further by the time the counting is over. Early tallies also have MAS leading in seats won in Bolivia’s Chamber of Deputies and its Senate.
UNITED STATES
8,520,307 confirmed cases (+61,429)
226,149 reported fatalities (+917)
Finally, GQ reporter Julia Ioffe has taken a deep dive into the still-lingering story of mysterious “attacks” against US diplomats and intelligence operatives around the world:
Marc Polymeropoulos awoke with a start. The feeling of nausea was overwhelming. Food poisoning, he thought, and decided to head for the bathroom. But when he tried to get out of bed, he fell over. He tried to stand up and fell again. It was the early morning hours of December 5, 2017, and his Moscow hotel room was spinning around him. His ears were ringing. He felt, he recalled, “like I was going to both throw up and pass out at the same time.”
Polymeropoulos was a covert CIA operative, a jovial, burly man who likes to refer to himself as “grizzled.” Moscow was not the first time he had been on enemy territory. He had spent most of his career in the Middle East, fighting America’s long war on terrorism. He had hunted terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen. He did the same in Iraq and Afghanistan. He had been shot at, ducked under rocket fire, and had shrapnel whiz by uncomfortably close to his head. But that night, paralyzed with seasickness in the landlocked Russian capital, Polymeropoulos felt terrified and utterly helpless for the first time.
Struggling to regain control over his body, Polymeropoulos couldn’t have imagined that this incident would upend his life. It would end a promising career that had just catapulted him into the ranks of senior CIA leadership, and threw him into the middle of a growing international mystery that has puzzled diplomats and scientists, and raised concerns on Capitol Hill. In the months ahead, he would come to realize that it wasn’t a spoiled sandwich that had mowed him down. Rather, it was his macabre initiation into a growing club of dozens of American diplomats, spies, and government employees posted abroad who were suffering in much the same way he was—targets of what some experts and doctors now believe were attacks perpetrated by unknown assailants wielding novel directed energy weapons. Though many of these apparent attacks have been publicized, including those that took place in Cuba and China, others have not been revealed until now, including at least three incidents that officials from the CIA and Capitol Hill say targeted American citizens on American soil.
I note this story, which was echoed by a similar piece in the New York Times also published Tuesday, not because I find it compelling but because it’s undoubtedly going to revive the buzz around this story and that will likely affect US foreign policy. Ioffe’s reporting takes it for granted that these alleged attacks are a real thing, despite the lack of hard evidence not just for the attacks themselves, but for the very existence of a class of weapons that could cause them.
You can decide where you are on this story for yourselves. For me, while I don’t doubt that at least some of the people who claim to have been “attacked” really experienced the symptoms they say they’ve experienced, this story continues to completely gloss over the question of “how” by substituting idle speculation for proof or even educated guessing. The latest completely speculative explanation is that these people were targeted by microwave weapons. Is this scientifically plausible? I have no idea. And neither, apparently, does anybody else, even though when we read pieces like Ioffe’s we’re more or less supposed to take on faith that it is.