World roundup: October 2 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ukraine, El Salvador, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
October 2, 1187: Jerusalem’s garrison, led by Balian of Ibelin, surrenders to Saladin after a brief siege. The garrison’s ability to hold out for even a short time was somewhat remarkable given that Saladin had annihilated Jerusalem’s army a few months prior. Despite ultimately giving up the city, Balian is regarded as having prevented a sack of the city and having forced Saladin to offer somewhat more lenient surrender terms than he might have otherwise.
October 2, 1944: The Warsaw Uprising ends with the Polish resistance defeated. Estimates vary, but over the two month conflict the Nazis killed upwards of 200,000 civilians and expelled hundreds of thousands more from the city. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 15,000 Polish resistance fighters were also killed against at least 2000 German soldiers (with several thousand more MIA).
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
An Israeli airstrike killed two people in southern Lebanon on Thursday, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Both were engineers employed by a company that’s been blacklisted by the US government for its alleged affiliation with Hezbollah.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Al Jazeera is reporting that the Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 53 people across Gaza on Thursday. For a change the highest number of deaths were in southern Gaza rather than in Gaza City, where the IDF has been proceeding with its eradication plan. Israeli forces have blocked the main road leading into northern Gaza and authorities reiterated on Thursday that they’re about to cut the one remaining road leading out of the region. The United Nations believes there are still 600,000 to 700,000 people in Gaza City who either cannot or will not evacuate. The IDF will presumably treat them all as legitimate targets once it closes the evacuation window.
Hamas has yet to issue its formal response to Donald Trump’s ceasefire framework and it’s now unclear what the deadline is for it to do so. After giving the group “three or four days” on Tuesday—it’s also unclear whether the countdown started on Tuesday or the day before—the White House now says that the deadline is “a red line that the president of the United States is going to have to draw.” So it sounds like he’ll just decide when he’s tired of waiting for an answer on the spur of the moment, which is definitely a sound way to make policy.
Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill spoke with a Hamas official about the group’s deliberations, which in this telling do not yet appear to be leaning one way or the other:
“Trump is dealing with us as if we have to accept this plan based on the well-known English phrase: Take it or leave it. This is unacceptable in political practice. It cannot be a matter of either accepting or rejecting an agreement outright,” said Mohammad Nazzal, a veteran Hamas official and longtime member of its political bureau, in an interview with Drop Site. “This plan was formulated without the participation of Hamas or any Palestinian party, including the Palestinian Authority. So how can the U.S. administration reach an agreement with one side of the conflict while excluding the Palestinian side?”
“This plan is not Trump’s plan; it is an Israeli plan,” he added. “I say this with deep regret: the United States of America has come to act as an agent of the Zionist entity.”
Nonetheless, Nazzal—who has been a member of Hamas since 1989 and has served in its political bureau since 1996—said Hamas is carefully reviewing the document and would soon offer its official response. “We are approaching the plan with a high degree of responsibility,” he said. “We began studying it and holding consultations as soon as we received it.”
Nazzal’s comments sound like Hamas is considering a “yes but” (or “yes and”) response to the framework—agreeing with it in principle but asking for negotiations to refine some of its more objectionable elements. But as he notes Trump has presented this as basically a take it or leave it proposal and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems eager to inflict new horrors on the Palestinians if Hamas responds with anything other than an unqualified “yes.”
Having intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla overnight, Israeli authorities said on Thursday that all of the activists aboard its 40-some vessels have been taken into custody and will be deported. The seizure of the flotilla has generated substantial outcry internationally, particularly due to the fact that the IDF interdicted it in international waters (it claims a legal right to do this because the waters off of Gaza are a “high risk” area). Colombian President Gustavo Petro expelled all of the Israeli diplomats who were still in his country (he broke off relations with Israel in May 2024), citing the detention of two Colombian nationals who were part of the flotilla. I understand these impulses, though appealing to “international law” after watching what the Israeli government has done with impunity for the past two years seems…well, I guess the polite term would be “quaint.”
IRAN
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is arguing that Iran needs a new capital city to account for the water crisis currently engulfing Tehran and its environs. According to Pezeshkian Iran’s total rainfall last year was 50 to 60 percent lower than average and this year is shaping up to be even drier. Consequently Tehran’s reservoirs are drying up and the city is relying increasingly on groundwater to sustain itself. That’s not a long-term solution, though, and aside from concerns about the city’s water security the depletion of that groundwater is also causing the ground in the city to subside at an alarming rate. Pezeshkian is not the first Iranian president to make this argument but it seems increasingly likely that the country will have to shift its capital to a site along the Persian Gulf at some point in the not too distant future.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has sent a negotiating team to the capital of Pakistan’s Kashmir region, Muzaffarabad, to meet with representatives of the Awami Action Committee, which has been organizing protests this week over local economic grievances. At least nine people have been killed amid those demonstrations, three of them police officers, and some 150 people have been injured. Regional officials say they’ve agreed to meet most of the protesters’ demands for economic support and governance reforms, but that hasn’t eased the unrest.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s military is claiming that it has recaptured the city of Kyaukme in the country’s Shan state. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army group seized Kyaukme in August 2024 in the midst of a major joint rebel offensive. The TNLA seems of late to be giving back some of the gains it made in Shan, as has the allied Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Kyaukme is a significant loss in part because it’s situated along a highway that links Myanmar with neighboring China so it has substantial commercial importance.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese and Egyptian governments are renewing their complaints about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in light of recent Nile flooding:
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty visited Port Sudan on Wednesday for high-level talks with Sudanese Prime Minister Kamel Idris and other officials, as concerns mount over rising Nile floodwaters and ongoing disputes surrounding Ethiopia’s megadam.
During his meeting with Idris, Abdelatty reaffirmed the two countries’ joint rejection of “unilateral actions” on the Nile, referring to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which was officially inaugurated last month. They also discussed Egypt’s role in facilitating the voluntary return of Sudanese citizens currently residing in the country.
In talks between Abdelatty and Sudanese Foreign Minister Mohi El-Din Salem, also on Wednesday, the two stressed “adherence to international law in managing the eastern Nile Basin.”
This seems thin to me. Abdelatty is claiming that the flooding currently hitting six Sudanese states is being caused or at least exacerbated by the GERD. But Sudan generally experiences flooding around this time of year and from what I can tell there’s no evidence behind the assertion that this year’s flooding is somehow unique for any reason that can be attributed to the GERD.
MOROCCO
Morocco’s “Gen Z” protest movement saw at least three people killed overnight when police opened fire on demonstrators in the southern town of Leqliaa. Moroccan authorities later claimed that a group of protesters had attempted to “seize” police weapons but there doesn’t seem to be anything corroborating that assertion. These are the first fatalities associated with the movement, which continued into a sixth straight night on Thursday. Hundreds of injuries have been reported and the Moroccan Association for Human Rights says that police have arrested some 1000 people so far.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
According to The Washington Post, there’s now data to support the claim that Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities are having a significant impact:
Ukraine’s new strategy of targeting oil refineries is taking its toll on Russia’s economy, dramatically cutting its refining capacity as the government seeks to balance massive military spending with falling revenue.
Citing data from Seala, a Russian energy markets analysis agency, the Russian business daily RBC reported that nearly 40 percent of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, mainly due to repairs after attacks.
“Attacks by Ukrainian drones are the main cause and account for up to 70 percent of the shutdowns,” Seala’s Vladimir Nikitin said, noting that scheduled maintenance on some facilities has been pushed back in a scramble to keep refineries running.
Russia’s fuel market is facing a shortfall equal to about 20 percent of monthly gasoline demand — roughly 400,000 tons out of the 2 million consumed — the Kommersant business daily reported, and consumers are starting to feel it. Roughly 1 in 50 gas stations have stopped selling gasoline as nationwide production has dropped by about 10 percent.
UKRAINE
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the US and Ukrainian governments are in late stage negotiations on “a landmark agreement” under which the latter will share its rapidly increasing expertise in the field of drone warfare with the former. A Ukrainian delegation is in the US this week to advance those talks, though a finalized deal is thought to be months away. Ukraine has by all accounts gotten pretty good at producing and deploying relatively cheap, mass produced drones, which is an area in which the US military feels it is lagging behind potential adversaries even as it continues to churn out more sophisticated (and much more expensive) drone models.
The benefits for Ukraine could be quite substantial and may be rolled into an emerging “megadeal” that could see Kyiv purchasing tens of billions of dollars in highly advanced US weaponry—maybe including Tomahawk cruise missiles, which the Ukrainians apparently want even though they may not have a way to launch them. Part of that package could be financed through US “royalty” payments for Ukrainian drone knowledge. Beyond that, this drone deal would presumably improve Ukraine’s standing with the Trump administration, which could grease the proverbial wheels for other types of US support moving forward.
AMERICAS
EL SALVADOR
ProPublica reported a few days ago that the Trump I administration’s ambassador to El Salvador was apparently fond of doing “favors” for that country’s leader:
In August 2020, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, went to the U.S. ambassador with an extraordinary request. Salvadoran authorities had intercepted a conversation between a journalist and a U.S. embassy contractor about corruption among high-level aides to the president.
The contractor, a U.S. citizen, was no ordinary source. He collaborated with U.S. and Salvadoran investigators who were targeting the president’s inner circle. Over the previous year, he had helped an FBI-led task force uncover a suspected alliance between the Bukele government and the MS-13 street gang, which was responsible for murders, rapes and kidnappings in the United States. He had worked to gather evidence that the president’s aides had secretly met with gang bosses in prison and agreed to give them money and protection in exchange for a reduction in violence. The information posed a threat to the Bukele government.
Bukele wanted the contractor out of the country — and in Ambassador Ronald D. Johnson, he had a powerful American friend. Johnson was a former CIA officer and appointee of President Donald Trump serving in his first diplomatic post. He had cultivated a strikingly close relationship with the Salvadoran president. After Bukele provided Johnson with the recordings, the ambassador immediately ordered an investigation that resulted in the contractor’s dismissal.
It was not the only favor Johnson did for Bukele, according to a ProPublica investigation based on a previously undisclosed report by the State Department’s inspector general and interviews with U.S. and Salvadoran officials. The dismissal of the contractor was part of a pattern in which Johnson has been accused of shielding Bukele from U.S. and Salvadoran law enforcement, ProPublica found. Johnson did little to pursue the extradition to the United States of an MS-13 boss who was a potential witness to the secret gang pact and a top target of the FBI-led task force, officials said.
Aside from the strong implication of corruption, this story is important because Johnson is now Trump’s ambassador to Mexico, which as ProPublica notes is “arguably the most important U.S. embassy in Latin America.”
HAITI
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk reported to the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday regarding allegations of excessive force by Haitian police that has seen hundreds of people killed so far this year. By far the area of greatest concern seems to be the police use of drones—according to Türk they’ve killed 559 people in drone strikes in largely gang-occupied Port-au-Prince this year, and while many of those were presumably insurgents it’s clear that they have killed civilians as well, including at least 11 children. At least eight children were killed in one recent drone strike targeting a gang leader according to Haitian media. Apart from that, Türk told the council that Haitian police have “summarily executed 174 people for alleged gang affiliation.”
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Trump administration has notified Congress that the United States is now engaged in “armed conflict” with drug cartels—specifically the cartels the administration designated as terrorist groups earlier this year. That makes cartel members “unlawful combatants” and is thus supposed to provide legal justification for the administration to, for example, blow up suspected cartel boats as it’s been doing. Describing drug trafficking in these terms allows Donald Trump to order extrajudicial executions with impunity, enrobed in the vast authorities that Congress and the judiciary ceded to the presidency at the height of the War on Terror. And as The Intercept’s Nick Turse reports, the administration is trying to push the boundaries of what’s allowable even beyond that:
In a briefing on Capitol Hill last week, the U.S. military offered up new explanations, relying on Article 2 of the Constitution and hinging on the claim the suspected drug traffickers are affiliated with “designated terrorist organizations,” or DTOs, according to three sources familiar with the meeting.
The vague phrase — which has previously appeared in government publications but lacks a clear definition — was used in President Donald Trump’s two-page War Powers letter to Congress following the first boat strike on September 2 and one of Trump’s Truth Social posts. A defense official, who did not attend the briefing and spoke to The Intercept on the condition of anonymity, called the label “meaningless.”
Unlike at a previous briefing that excluded senior staff from House leadership and relevant committees, the military sent judge advocates general to last week’s briefing, ostensibly to explain the legal underpinnings of the attacks. The sources familiar with the meeting said that congressional staffers left the Thursday gathering without answers. Military briefers repeatedly referenced a secret directive that the staffers involved have never seen, according to the government officials. The directive, reportedly signed by Trump in July, ordered the Pentagon to use military force against some Latin American drug cartels he has labeled terrorist organizations.
Experts told The Intercept that the sweeping authority asserted by the White House opens the door to even greater authoritarian overreach at home — and the possibility that Trump could order lethal strikes on supposed enemies inside the United States.