World roundup: October 19-20 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Cameroon, Cuba, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
October 19, 1469: Prince Ferdinand of Aragon marries Infanta Isabella of Castile in the marriage that would eventually unite the two kingdoms and give birth to the nation of Spain.
October 19, 1781: The Siege of Yorktown ends with a French-American victory over the British army under Lord Charles Cornwallis. The surrender of an entire British army marked the effective end of the American Revolution.
October 20, 1448: The Second Battle of Kosovo ends
October 20, 1962: Chinese forces attack India in two disputed border regions—Ladakh in the west and the Tibet-Arunachal Pradesh region in the east—beginning the month-long Sino-Indian War. The conflict ended with a decisive Chinese victory that stabilized the still poorly defined Chinese-Indian border on Beijing’s terms.
October 20, 2011: With the tide of Libya’s civil war having turned decisively against him, thanks in no small measure to NATO’s intervention, a fleeing Muammar Gaddafi is captured by rebels west of the city of Sirte and summarily executed. Gaddafi’s death definitely marked the end of an era but it did not mark the end of Libya’s internal conflict, which in many respects remains ongoing.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
If you were still under the impression that the Israeli government might seize on the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to end or even reduce the intensity of the carnage it’s inflicting on the people of Gaza and Lebanon, this weekend should have finally convinced you otherwise. We’ll get to Lebanon below, but the Israeli military (IDF) bombed several residential buildings in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahia area on Saturday night, leaving at last count 87 people either confirmed dead or missing and at least 40 wounded according to Gazan authorities. Earlier in the day the IDF had killed at least 33 people in strikes in the nearby Jabalia area, where Israeli attacks have taken the last three partially functioning medical facilities offline and where the IDF’s northern Gazan operation has taken on the character of an extermination campaign.
The IDF has killed at least 400 people since it began its latest operation in northern Gaza earlier this month. Those are just the confirmed dead. There’s a very legitimate fear that the destruction of the region’s medical facilities and the intensity of the Israeli violence have made it impossible to assess the real death toll, which if that’s true could be far higher. I know Israeli leaders insist they’re not implementing a plan to cleanse northern Gaza of human life, and far be it from me to question their integrity, but I’m not sure what else to call what seems to be happening in Jabalia. And I can’t shake the sense that they’re treating Jabalia as a trial run, and if the international community (i.e., the United States) allows them to get away with what they’re doing in that one part of northern Gaza then the operation will be broadened to the rest of northern Gaza in time.
Elsewhere:
Hamas says that when it replaces Sinwar it intends to keep the identity of his replacement secret. This seems understandable given the circumstances and it’s not a major shift for the group, which has gone through a number of kinds of leadership structures throughout its history. But it remains to be seen whether it will be able to keep the identity of Sinwar’s replacement (or replacements) completely under wraps and how the group will operate moving forward.
After news of Sinwar’s death broke, Joe Biden revealed publicly that not only has the US military been sharing intelligence with the IDF to assist in hostage rescue efforts since October 7, US special forces have actually been in Gaza helping the IDF hunt Sinwar and other Hamas leaders. Somehow the Pentagon is parsing its involvement to claim that even as it’s been directly involved in prosecuting the war it’s not at all responsible for the attendant genocide. At any rate, the revelation lends some credence to unconfirmed claims, that I’ve yet to find anywhere outside of social media, of US soldiers being observed in the field participating in IDF operations.
According to the World Health Organization, the Israeli government has banned six medical charities from entering Gaza. It has apparently not offered any reason for the bans. One rationale would be simply to minimize the number of trained medical personnel in the territory in order to maximize casualties. But at a time when medical volunteers are leaving Gaza and telling the rest of the world what they’ve seen, I suspect the more critical concern for Israeli leaders is minimizing the number of witnesses to the atrocities.
Some enterprising soul leaked a couple of classified US documents that speak to Israeli planning for the inevitable retaliation for Iran’s ballistic missile attack earlier this month. Media outlets are steering clear of the contents because The Bad Guys might have been responsible for the leak, but Ken Klippenstein published them here if you’re interested. They indicate an attack that includes both air-launched ballistic missiles and drones, which speaks to something robust but doesn’t say much (as far as I can tell) about what the IDF is planning to attack. More attention is being paid to the leak itself than to the contents, with the US investigating what could be a bit of an awkward development for US-Israeli relations. Responsible Statecraft’s Trita Parsi offers a few potential leakers, including the Israelis themselves in some sort of misdirection or another US ally looking to disrupt Israeli planning and presumably frustrated with Biden’s indulgence of the Israeli government’s every impulse to date. I’m not sure how much the “who” really matters, frankly. It remains to be seen (and really we may never know) if the leak will have any effect on Israeli plans.
LEBANON
The IDF announced on Sunday that it’s planning to intensify its assault on Beirut, whose greater metropolitan area is home to some 2.4 million people, in an effort to take down Hezbollah’s Qard al-Hassan “financial arm.” It resumed attacking targets in southern Beirut, which has already been pulverized by repeated Israeli attacks, shortly after the announcement. The Israeli announcement came one day after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin opined that the IDF should “scale back some of the strikes it’s taking, especially in and around Beirut,” and several days after the Biden administration said publicly that it had asked the Israelis to reduce the frequency of their strikes on “densely populated areas of Beirut.” Better luck next time, I guess.
Qard al-Hassan is a banking network, meaning the IDF is going to be carrying out airstrikes on banks, and while it does have ties to Hezbollah it’s also used by a lot of people who have little or nothing to do with Hezbollah and I expect some of them will now wind up dead because they’re using the wrong financial institution. We can also expect some people who don’t even use Qard al-Hassan to wind up dead because they decided, probably several years ago, to live near one of its branches. Or maybe a branch moved into their neighborhood. Whatever the story, they’ll be added to a civilian death toll that the Israeli government relishes and the Biden administration at least tolerates, if not encourages.
On Saturday an apparent Hezbollah drone—it appears to have been launched from Lebanon, at least—struck near Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in the city of Caesarea. There were no casualties and Netanyahu and his wife were apparently not there at the time. Netanyahu also spends time at a private residence in Jerusalem and has access to the official PM residence in that city, though that facility is currently being renovated.
ASIA
INDIA
Unspecified gunmen killed two people and wounded two others in the disputed Indian Kashmir region on Sunday. Presumably the attackers were Kashmiri militants of some description but as yet there doesn’t seem to be much information as to their identities.
INDONESIA
Prabowo Subianto officially took office as Indonesia’s new president on Sunday, delivering an inaugural address in which he stressed battling corruption and (somewhat ominously) talked about making Indonesian politics “polite.” I’m sure he won’t wield that standard against any future political opposition.
Prabowo later unveiled his new cabinet, which is the largest in Indonesian history. That’s a reflection of the very broad coalition that brought him to power, which includes the seven parties that directly supported him as well as the administration of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, whose support was more subtle but still relevant. Several members of the previous cabinet have retained their jobs, necessitating an expansion of the body to reward Prabowo’s other supporters.
CHINA
The Wall Street Journal reports on the US military’s plans for fighting a war against China:
For decades, the U.S. didn’t need the airfield [on the Pacific island of Tinian]. It consolidated its presence at a small number of large air bases—in Japan and on the American territory of Guam, for instance. It can no longer afford to do so. In a conflict, China could direct its significant firepower at those well-known bases to destroy aircraft, crater runways and cripple U.S. air power.
To prevent that from happening, the U.S. would switch to a different posture during a crisis. Aircraft would scatter across an array of airfields in the Indo-Pacific—be it full-fledged bases belonging to allies, lone airstrips on far-out islands or even runways at civilian airports. They would hop between the different locations to keep China guessing and increase their chances of survival.
The point is to “not consolidate all of our aircraft into one big, juicy target,” said Michael Winkler, deputy director of air and cyberspace operations for the Pacific Air Forces. “There’s a dispersal aspect to it, and then there’s flexibility as well where aircraft aren’t specifically tied to one base.”
If that sounds straightforward, it isn’t. Keeping smaller units supplied across disparate, distant and bare-bones locations is hard. There is another distance problem: The farther aircraft spread out from the main battlefield, the harder it can be for them to contribute to the fight.
Adopting a more dispersed posture also means the U.S. needs a lot more options for places it could use to land, take off and project power in a crisis. How many? As many as possible, said Winkler.
Sounds like fun! I’m sure the people living in the Pacific islands are excited by the prospect.
NORTH KOREA
Austin on Saturday said that he could not confirm claims that North Korean soldiers are being trained/prepared for deployment to Ukraine alongside the Russian military. So far only two countries have “confirmed” that this is taking place and they’re South Korea and Ukraine, neither of which can be considered a neutral observer. That’s probably worth keeping in mind as this story continues to develop.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military is claiming that a senior Rapid Support Forces commander, Abuagla Keikal, has defected along with some portion of his fighters. Keikal is apparently the RSF’s commander in central Sudan’s Gezira state so if this is true it’s a fairly significant development—how significant would probably depend on how large a portion of his fighters he brought with him. That’s a big “if,” though, and notably Keikal himself hasn’t commented publicly. The military is also claiming a new advance in southeastern Sudan’s Sennar state, but details around that are very sparse.
There’s more confirmed information regarding recent military gains in Khartoum, where the RSF seems to be on its heels a bit though it still controls much of the city. According to Al Jazeera residents appear to prefer the military to the RSF, though they’ve also noted a string of executions of perceived RSF sympathizers in areas that the military has retaken.
MALI
Le Monde reported earlier this month that the Ukrainian military has been supplying drones to rebels in northern Mali who are fight against that country’s Russian-backed military government. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry issued a statement last week saying that it “strongly rejects” that claim. Moscow has accused the Ukrainian government of aiding insurgents in African states that are supported by Russia and Mali’s junta cut diplomatic ties with Kyiv in August over alleged Ukrainian support (in the form of intelligence) for the rebels.
CAMEROON
The AP reports on the impact that conflicts in northern and western Cameroon are having on schoolchildren:
As of 2023, the separatist crisis in west Cameroon and incursions by the Boko Haram extremist group in the north left 1.4 million school-age children in dire need of educational assistance, according to a report from the Norwegian Refugee Council aid group. The U.N. said that in 2019, the year [student Jane] Ndamei’s school was attacked, 855,000 children were out of school in northwest and southwest Cameroon, where armed separatist groups targeted schools.
The Central African nation has been plagued by fighting since English-speaking separatists launched a rebellion in 2017, with the stated goal of breaking away from the area dominated by the French-speaking majority and setting up an independent, English-speaking state.
The government has accused the separatists of committing atrocities against English-speaking civilians. The conflict has killed more than 6,000 people and displaced more than 760,000 others, according to the International Crisis Group.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
AFP is reporting on signs of new fighting between the M23 rebel group and pro-government “Wazalendo” militia fighters in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province on Sunday. At least 14 civilians were wounded in what appears to be the first major clash involving M23 in several weeks. The rebels and the Congolese government entered into a ceasefire in early August, and while there have been some shaky moments since then the agreement has held up even as further negotiations between Congolese officials and representatives of M23’s backer, Rwanda, have faltered. Sunday’s fighting would not technically violate the ceasefire, which was between M23 and the regular Congolese military, but if it continues it may become difficult for the military to stay out of the conflict.
MOZAMBIQUE
Two officials in Mozambique’s Podemos party were gunned down in Maputo on Saturday in what party officials and human rights organizations are characterizing as an assassination. Podemos is the party of opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, who continues to claim that he won the Mozambican presidential election earlier this month even as official results point to a victory for ruling Frelimos party candidate Daniel Chapo. Mondlane has called for a general strike to protest alleged election irregularities on Monday, so the timing of this shooting is certainly suspect. Reuters suggests that in addition to the government suspicion may also fall on the Renamo party, whose status as the traditional opposition to Frelimo has been usurped by Podemos and Mondlane.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A massive overnight Ukrainian drone attack struck at least two targets of significance: a military airbase in Russia’s Lipetsk oblast and a military explosives factory in Nizhny Novgorod oblast. Ukrainian officials have not determined how much damage either strike caused, nor is there any indication as to casualties apart from injuries to four firefighters in Nizhny Novgorod.
UKRAINE
Russian forces have reportedly entered the town of Selydove and are fighting “street-to-street battles” with its Ukrainian defenders. Selydove is situated about 20 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, arguably the Russians’ top target in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast.
AMERICAS
HAITI
The United Nations Security Council voted on Friday to substantially expand its embargo on arms going to Haiti, changing the wording of its previous ban on “small arms, light weapons, and ammunition” to encompass “arms and related materiel of all types.” This is the second UNSC vote on Haiti in recent weeks, after it extended the mandate of the international policing intervention on September 30 (notably opting not to upgrade it to a full UN peacekeeping operation).
CUBA
Cuban authorities were able to partially restore power over the weekend after the national grid failed on Friday. As of Saturday morning they had restored around 500 megawatts, far short of the 3 gigawatts that the country’s power grid usually generates, with hopes that more plants would be brought back online and that full power would be more or less restored by Monday. However, a new complication arose Sunday evening when the fast-developing Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba. Oscar is a category 1 storm so it may not cause that much of a disruption but it’s difficult to imagine it won’t have at least some impact on the electricity situation.
UNITED STATES
Finally, and continuing on a theme, Drop Site’s Ed Augustin reported earlier this month on the devastating effect the Biden administration has had on the Cuban economy:
Cuba has been sanctioned for longer than any other country in modern history. But almost a decade ago the Obama administration softened sanctions on the island and restored diplomatic relations with Havana, admitting that over half a century of immiserating the island had failed to oust the communist government. The economic rebound was swift. But in the final weeks of the Trump administration, the White House put Cuba back on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism, alongside Iran, Syria and North Korea, for nakedly political reasons and without providing evidence.
Cuba watchers expected that Biden would restore Obama’s raft of achievements. After all, on the campaign trail in 2020 Biden promised that as president he would “reverse the failed Trump policies that inflicted harm on Cubans and their families.”
Instead, Biden has one-upped Trump by going further than the previous administration in attacking Cuba’s tourism industry – the main engine of the island’s economy. Two years ago, the Biden State Department barred foreigners who visit Cuba from visa-free travel to the U.S. That meant that people from the United Kingdom, France, Spain and 37 other countries found out that a mere holiday in Cuba could forfeit their visa waiver, and many decided not to risk a visit to the island. Unlike the rest of the Caribbean, tourism in Cuba has not rebounded since the pandemic. European travel to the island is only half what it was before the pandemic.
The terror designation, together with more than 200 sanctions enacted against the island since Obama left office, has pulped the Cuban economy by cutting revenue to the struggling Cuban state. Economists calculate that the loss in tourism revenue resulting from the terror designation costs the state hundreds of millions dollars a year. The combined annual cost of the Trump-Biden sanctions, they say, amounts to billions of dollars a year.
I think it’s worth dwelling on the phrase “Trump-Biden sanctions,” since with the Biden administration coming to a close it’s fair to notice the extent to which it maintained and expanded upon the foreign policy of its predecessor, which we’ve been told was so far outside the norm as to be dangerous. Anyway, perhaps some of those lost billions could have been put toward stabilizing the Cuban power grid and sparing the Cuban people this latest hardship. One wonders whether anyone in the Biden administration cares.