World roundup: October 17-18 2020
Stories from Lebanon, Afghanistan, Bolivia, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 16, 1934: The Chinese Red Army begins the “Long March,” a series of maneuvers that would, over the next year and over some 9000 kilometers, see his forces evade the Kuomintang army of Chiang Kai-shek. Though the Red Army lost a substantial portion of its forces, the Long March preserved the Chinese Communist Party and enabled Mao Zedong’s rise to undisputed leadership within it, in addition to being a massive public relations success.
October 16, 1964: China tests its first nuclear bomb. How nice for them.
October 17, 1437: The Battle of Tangier ends
October 17, 1973: OPEC imposes an oil embargo against countries that were supporting Israeli in the Yom Kippur War—Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The embargo immediate caused a spike in oil prices and contributed to shortages that led to gasoline rationing in the targeted countries. It notably did not cause any of the targeted countries to change policy.
October 18, 1009: Fatimid Caliph al-Hakim destroys the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem.
October 18, 1912: The Italo-Turkish War ends with a decisive Italian victory. The war not only brought Libya under Italian control—though that control initially didn’t extend very far inland—it also demonstrated the Ottoman Empire’s weakness and encouraged Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, and Serbia to form an alliance (the Balkan League) and go to war with the empire. The First Balkan War led to a Second Balkan War when the league broke up, and that led (in part) into World War I.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 18:
40,264,219 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (9,038,018 active, +324,927 since yesterday)
1,118,167 reported fatalities (+3971 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
5077 confirmed coronavirus cases (+44)
248 reported fatalities (+3)
The Wall Street Journal is reporting (non-paywalled Reuters summary here) that the Trump administration sent a deputy assistant to Donald Trump, Kash Patel, to Syria earlier this year to try to negotiate the release of two American citizens—journalist Austin Tice and therapist Majd Kamalmaz—who are believed to be in the custody of the Syrian government. Tice disappeared while reporting from Syria and 2012, and Kamalmaz disappeared in 2017. Damascus hasn’t acknowledged holding either of them. The administration has reportedly continued seeking their release, with National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien having pressed the issue recently with the head of Lebanon’s General Security Directorate, Abbas Ibrahim, at the White House. It does not appear that any of these efforts have gotten very far and it’s unclear what, if anything, the administration offered Damascus in return for their release.
YEMEN
2056 confirmed cases (+1)
597 reported fatalities (+1)
The Iranian government has sent a new ambassador to Yemen—but to the Houthis, not the internationally recognized Yemeni government. Substantively I’m not sure this matters very much, but it is a thumb of the nose at Saudi Arabia and the United States. Iran is the only foreign country that has diplomatic relations with the Houthis, but Iran’s stature being what it is that’s not lending much credibility to the rebel diplomatic cause.
TURKEY
347,493 confirmed cases (+1815)
9296 reported fatalities (+72)
The 320 billion cubic meter natural gas deposit a Turkish exploratory vessel discovered in the Black Sea back in August is apparently 405 billion cubic meters. That’s an extra year and a half or so of gas, based on Turkey’s current national usage, which isn’t anything to sneeze at. But that assumes the Turks can actually get at all of that gas, which has yet to be determined.
LEBANON
62,286 confirmed cases (+1002)
520 reported fatalities (+3)
Lebanon’s largest Christian political party, the Free Patriotic Movement of former foreign minister Gebran Bassil, announced on Saturday that it will not support a new government led by former prime minister Saad al-Hariri. With the Lebanese Forces party already having rejected Hariri’s candidacy that means the two most influential Christian parties in the country have taken a hard pass and that could be enough to sink Hariri’s candidacy. Bassil made his objections to Hariri clear on Tuesday, arguing (not without some justification, frankly) that it would be impossible for an “apolitical” cabinet, which Lebanon is supposed to form in order to meet international demands, to be led by a man who has spent the past 15 years serving as one of Lebanon’s most consummate politicians. Hariri’s path to a parliamentary majority is not entirely blocked, but his ability to govern without the support of at least one of the main Christian parties would be dubious.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
303,109 confirmed cases (+339) in Israel, 47,135 confirmed cases (+389) in Palestine
2209 reported fatalities (+19) in Israel, 408 reported fatalities (+6) in Palestine
Somebody fired a rocket out of Gaza into an empty field on Friday, and then a wild thing happened: the Israeli military apparently didn’t retaliate for it. There are reports in Israeli media that Hamas and the Israeli government have agreed on a six month truce that includes some $100 million in Qatari aid money to Gaza, so perhaps that explains the lack of response.
Elsewhere, thousands of Israelis protested outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem on Saturday, after the lockdown that’s minimized their weekly expressions of discontent was lifted. Protest organizers are claiming that upwards of 260,000 people participated in a series of demonstrations across the country, all demanding Netanyahu’s resignation over his corruption trial and his management of the pandemic.
BAHRAIN
77,902 confirmed cases (+331)
300 reported fatalities (+7)
Israeli and Bahraini officials established full diplomatic relations between their countries with a signing ceremony in Manama on Sunday. They will at some indeterminate point open embassies in each other’s capitals, though I would imagine the Bahrainis will stick with Tel Aviv rather than put their embassy in Jerusalem.
SAUDI ARABIA
342,202 confirmed cases (+348)
5185 reported fatalities (+20)
A spokesman for the Islamic State who goes by the name “Abu Hamza al-Muhajir” issued a call over the weekend for IS devotees to attack Westerners and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, via the group’s Telegram channel. He accused the kingdom of normalizing relations with Israel, citing its willingness to allow Israeli flights to Bahrain and the UAE to pass through its airspace. Which isn’t really normalization, but I guess it’s close enough for IS’s purposes.
IRAN
530,380 confirmed cases (+3890)
30,375 reported fatalities (+252)
The Iranian government declared on Sunday that the United Nations arms embargo that was imposed against it in 2007 (for Iranian arms exports) and 2010 (for Iranian arms imports) has now expired. And in point of fact, it has expired as far as everybody except the United States is concerned. Iran is likely in the market for a substantial quantity of Russian and possibly Chinese materiel, despite assurances from Tehran that it does not intend to go on a “spree.” But the Trump administration reiterated its plans to blacklist any company that sells weapons to Iran, under its claim that in fact the UN embargo was reimposed last month when the US invoked the 2015 Iran nuclear deal’s “snapback” provision. No other major country recognizes that US claim, based on the fact that the US withdrew from the deal two years ago and therefore cannot rightly invoke it now.
It obviously remains to be seen whether Russia and China will risk US sanctions to sell arms to Iran. Russian and Chinese arms makers aren’t selling weapons to the United States and so in that sense they can afford to be blacklisted. But Russian and Chinese officials will need to consider the potential knock-on effects of US sanctions on ancillary entities (especially on financial institutions) before they green light any sales.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
44,964 confirmed cases (+647)
626 reported fatalities (+3)
Amid reports Friday evening of serious escalations in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with Azerbaijani forces allegedly shelling civilians in Stepanakert and Armenian/Karabakh forces allegedly shelling civilians in Ganja and other Azerbaijani towns and cities, the two sides abruptly announced a brand new ceasefire on Saturday. Or, rather, a renewed effort to implement the ceasefire they’d negotiated the previous weekend, only to spend all week violating it over and over again. Saturday’s agreement to agree again, uh, hasn’t worked. The new-old ceasefire went into effect at midnight Sunday, and quite literally within minutes Armenian and Azerbaijani officials were accusing one another of violating it. Maybe those were just the last throes of the fighting before the ceasefire fully takes root, but based on the experience of the past week I wouldn’t count on it.
AFGHANISTAN
40,200 confirmed cases (+59)
1492 reported fatalities (+4)
At least 13 people were killed and 120 more wounded Sunday by a car bomb in Afghanistan’s Ghor province. There’s been no claim of responsibility, but the Islamic State has generally been more active in eastern Afghanistan and Ghor is in the western part of the country.
In the southern part of the country, meanwhile, the Taliban on Sunday accused the United States of violating their February deescalation agreement by conducting airstrikes against its forces. Which is wild, because the US has been conducting those airstrikes in response to a Taliban attack on the city of Lashkar Gah that would seem to be a clear violation of that very same agreement. The US military of course insists that its actions have been consistent with the February deal, which basically says that the US will keep airstrikes to a minimum if the Taliban agrees not to specifically target foreign troops and to steer clear of civilian areas as much as possible. Lashkar Gah is a civilian area.
All of this is happening in the context of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government in Qatar that have been stuck at square zero for over a month. Negotiators are still talking about how to organize the talks, meaning they have yet to even broach anything substantive. It’s possible that Donald Trump’s abrupt promise earlier this month to have all US forces out of Afghanistan by Christmas has caused the Taliban to take a harder line, thereby making the talks more difficult.
MYANMAR
36,025 confirmed cases (+1150)
880 reported fatalities (+42)
Ahead of next month’s general election, Myanmar’s government has decided not to open polling places in nine of Rakhine state’s 17 districts due to the ongoing Arakan Army insurgency and consequent lack of security in those regions. The decision will likely disenfranchise many Rakhine state residents, some of whom may begin to see the AA’s point if they’re denied an electoral outlet via which to air their grievances. It will also call into question the legitimacy of the election, which is supposed to cement Myanmar’s civilian democracy a decade after the end of military rule.
THAILAND
3686 confirmed cases (+7)
59 reported fatalities (+0)
Speaking of countries still transitioning out of military rule, thousands of people protested in Bangkok on both Saturday and Sunday, despite a government crackdown, to call for sweeping political change in Thailand. That makes major protests four days in a row since Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government imposed a state of emergency in the capital to try to put an end to the demonstrations.
Protesters in Bangkok on Saturday (Brickinfo Media via Shutterstock.com)
Police are using water cannons with irritants apparently added to the water in an effort to control the crowds, but haven’t escalated beyond that yet. Protesters want an end to Prayut’s government—an extension of the country’s 2014-2019 ruling military junta—as well as changes to laws shielding the Thai monarchy from criticism.
OCEANIA
NEW ZEALAND
1886 confirmed cases (+3)
25 reported fatalities (+0)
As expected, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party won a decisive—landslide, even—victory in Saturday’s New Zealand parliamentary election. Ardern’s party won 64 of the 120 parliamentary seats, the first time a single party has won an outright majority in a New Zealand election since the country adopted its mixed-member proportional representation electoral system in 1996. Now the question is whether she’ll use that sole majority or form a coalition anyway, both to broaden her majority and to stick to what has been New Zealand’s political norm. If she opts for a coalition then the Green Party, which won ten seats, up from its previous eight, would seem to be an obvious choice.
AFRICA
GUINEA
11,518 confirmed cases (+40)
70 reported fatalities (+0)
Guinean voters are choosing their next president, in an election marked by controversy over incumbent Alpha Condé’s legally questionable decision to run for a third term. Condé insists that a constitutional referendum earlier this year reset his term limit counter to zero. Results probably won’t be known until at least tomorrow but Condé is expected to win, and unrest is expected to follow.
IVORY COAST
20,323 confirmed cases (+22)
121 reported fatalities (+0)
At least two people were killed in pre-election violence in the Ivory Coast over the weekend. Clashes broke out Friday in the city of Bongouanou, where former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan has his main base of support. N’Guessan is running against incumbent Alassane Ouattara (who is, like Condé, running for a constitutional dubious third term), but has been hinting at a possible boycott and calling for civil disobedience. Things turned violent, with dueling pro- and anti-Ouattara riots, involving the Agni people (who tend to support N’Guessan) and the Dioula people (who tend to support Ouattara). In addition to the two deaths, N’Guessan’s house was apparently set on fire.
NIGERIA
61,440 confirmed cases (+133)
1125 reported fatalities (+2)
Islamic State West Africa Province fighters killed at least 14 Nigerian soldiers on Friday in an attack on a military base in a village near the city of Maiduguri. The insurgents made off with “four trucks fitted with machine guns.”
CAMEROON
21,441 confirmed cases (+0)
423 reported fatalities (+0)
Boko Haram fighters attacked a village in northern Cameroon late Thursday, killing three people and kidnapping five children.
EUROPE
BELARUS
87,698 confirmed cases (+635)
929 reported fatalities (+4)
An estimated 30,000-plus people marched in Minsk on Sunday to repeat their call for President Alexander Lukashenko’s resignation. Protesters have been gathering every Sunday for the same purpose since Lukashenko won a heavily disputed election in August. But this week’s protest was perhaps a little more defiant than previous week’s iterations, coming amid threats from Belarusian authorities to begin shooting at the demonstrators.
CYPRUS
2644 confirmed cases (+63)
25 reported fatalities (+0)
Nationalist Prime Minister Ersin Tatar won Sunday’s runoff for the presidency of the separatist Republic of Northern Cyprus, defeating incumbent Mustafa Akıncı. Polling had looked favorable for Tatar heading into a runoff, though most of that polling was months old and speculation had focused more on Akıncı’s supposed ability to win over supporters of those candidates who didn’t survive last week’s first round, also won by Tatar. Clearly Akıncı didn’t win over enough of them. Tatar’s victory is going over very well in Turkey, where Akıncı’s independent streak was an irritant, but it’s unlikely to go over well with the Cypriot government or in Greece, since Tatar is more inclined toward secession than toward reunifying Cyprus.
AMERICAS
CHILE
491,760 confirmed cases (+1757)
13,635 reported fatalities (+47)
Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in Santiago on Sunday to mark the one year anniversary of the anti-austerity protest movement that rocked Chilean politics before the pandemic put a damper on things. Next Sunday, voters will go to the polls to participate in the outcome of that protest movement: a referendum on whether, and how, to rewrite Chile’s Augusto Pinochet-era constitution. Polling seems to indicate a landslide for the pro-rewrite side.
BOLIVIA
139,710 confirmed cases (+148)
8463 reported fatalities (+24)
The voting is wrapping up in Bolivia’s general election as I write this. Real results won’t be known until tomorrow at the earliest, since Bolivian officials aren’t releasing their usual “quick count” election night vote totals, and even at that there’s a decent chance that the two leading presidential candidates, former economy minister Luis Arce and former president Carlos Mesa, will be going to a runoff. Arce is the nominee of former President Evo Morales’ Movement for Socialism (MAS) party and is carrying Morales’ legacy—for better or worse, I guess, depending on the voter—with him. Polling has wavered, with some surveys showing Arce winning a narrow outright victory in the first round. To avoid a runoff he’ll need to win at least 40 percent of the vote and finish at least ten points ahead of the runner up, presumably Mesa. If they wind up in a runoff, polling has suggested Mesa might have the inside track.
With that as the backdrop, there are two open questions surrounding the outcome of this election. The first and probably easier question is whether there will be unrest following the final result (whether that comes after the first round or after a runoff). The answer is probably “yes.” A large faction of Bolivian society is going to emerge from this election unhappy and that unhappiness will probably manifest in protests if not outright violence. If Arce wins, the same right-wing forces that conspired to oust Morales last fall will be outraged. If he loses, Morales’ supporters are going to feel that the presidency was stolen from them, which it was, and that goes double if Bolivia’s current ruling junta cheats to help Mesa. Which is the second open question.
Look, there’s probably going to be some cheating here. Those forces that worked to rid themselves of Morales—including the junta, the rest of the Bolivian right, and the Organization of American States—didn’t go to all that trouble just to hand the presidency back to his party a year later. So they’ll likely do what they can to help Mesa. And given how tight the polling has been, they may not have to do that much, which will make it harder to detect. All they really have to do is get Mesa to a runoff (in other words, to keep him within ten points of Arce) and maybe (though maybe not, given what the polling for a Mesa-Arce runoff has looked like) give him a small assist in that second vote. A fairly small number of votes in both rounds could be enough to swing the election.
The shenanigans may already have begun—Bolivian authorities reportedly arrested Argentine legislator Federico Fagioli on Friday and threatened the team of election observers he’d led to Bolivia, prompting an angry condemnation from Argentine President Alberto Fernández. Arresting or otherwise harassing international observers is not generally an effective means of convincing people that you’re conducting your elections on the up-and-up. As does purging voter rolls of potential MAS supporters and putting soldiers and riot cops in the streets before anybody starts voting:
More than 10,000 troops were called out to keep the peace. In a message clearly aimed at the socialists, Áñez’s influential Interior Minister Arturo Murillo led a show of force on Saturday with military soldiers and armored vehicles on the streets of La Paz. Murillo said the effort was meant to prevent “the return of dictators” — a clear reference to Morales, who was democratically elected three times before his controversial bid for a fourth term last year.
Murillo, as you can see, has a bad habit of saying the quiet parts out loud.
HAITI
8964 confirmed cases (+8)
231 reported fatalities (+0)
Protesters demanding the resignation of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse battled police in Port-au-Prince on Saturday, with several injuries reported as security forces used rubber bullets and tear gas to try to break up the demonstrations. The protesters oppose Moïse due to allegations of corruption as well as over his management of the pandemic and resulting economic downturn.
UNITED STATES
8,387,799 confirmed cases (+44,941)
224,730 reported fatalities (+448)
Finally, this isn’t a new story but I think it’s worth a periodic reminder of what the Trump administration’s xenophobia is doing to people around the world who sacrificed their own livelihoods and even their personal safety to help the US military prosecute its wars:
The Trump administration had reserved 4,000 slots for Iraqi refugees who had helped American troops, contractors or news media or who are members of a persecuted minority group in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30. It ultimately admitted only 161 Iraqis — or 4 percent — to the United States, the lowest percentage of the four categories of refugees the administration authorized for resettlement last year. While the coronavirus pandemic caused refugee flights to be canceled for months, immigration lawyers also cited the lasting effects of President Trump’s initial refugee bans and expanded vetting of those fleeing persecution. Of the 5,000 slots reserved for victims of religious persecution, 4,859 were filled — a reflection, perhaps, of the administration’s political priorities.
Ms. Al Haidari’s hopes for her family’s reunion dimmed further last month when Mr. Trump told Congress he planned to cut the cap on refugees for a fourth straight year. The number of refugees admitted depends on the administration and world events, but the ceiling for the current fiscal year, 15,000, is the lowest in the program’s four decade-long history. During the Obama administration, the cap was at least 70,000 a year. The announcement came as Mr. Trump fell back on the kind of anti-immigration messaging that has been a staple of his campaigns, tarring refugees as threats to public safety and the economy, despite multiple studies debunking such generalizations. He also used the issue to attack his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who has proposed raising refugee admissions to 125,000.
But families like the Al Haidaris make for unlikely political targets. Veterans and active-duty service members fear that the exclusion of those who assisted the military from resettlement is the real threat to national security because such cooperation will be harder to come by in future conflicts. More than 9,800 Iraqis were welcomed to the United States in 2016, according to State Department data. By the 2019 fiscal year, that was down to 465.