World roundup: October 12-13 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Myanmar, Nigeria, and elsewhere
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PROGRAMMING NOTE 1: Tomorrow, as you may know, is Indigenous People’s Day/Columbus Day in the US. Less because of the holiday than because I have a couple of commitments I need to fulfill I will be skipping tomorrow evening’s newsletter and will pull double duty on Tuesday.
PROGRAMMING NOTE 2: I recently appeared on the great We’re Not So Different podcast, hosted by Eleanor Janega and Luke Waters, to talk about 14th century Muslim world traveler Ibn Battuta. They released part 1 of our chat on Thursday and part 2 should be out this week. Please look for it wherever you get your podcasts and support the show here.
THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
October 12 (give or take), 539 BCE: An Achaemenid Persian army under dynastic founder Cyrus II (“the Great”) enters the city of Babylon, bringing the Neo-Babylonian Empire to an end and ushering in a (very long, as it turned out) period in which Mesopotamia was consistently ruled by outside powers. The conquest of Babylon was more or less a foregone conclusion after the Persian victory in the decisive Battle of Opis in September. Cyrus inherited the Babylonians’ conquests, including Judea, where he was later praised for allowing the exiled Judean population to return to its homeland.
October 12, 1492: Christopher Columbus’s first expedition makes landfall in, as it turned out, the Americas (as they’d soon be known). Columbus dubbed the island he’d encountered “San Salvador” and it’s believed to correspond with modern San Salvador Island in the Bahamas. Mistakenly believing he’d sailed all the way to India, Columbus began the European practice of referring to the Indigenous peoples of the Western Hemisphere as “Indians” and spent the next three months exploring the region (losing his flagship, the Santa María, in the process).
October 13, 1307: The Knights Templar order is purged.
October 13, 1943: Italy declares war on Germany. This abrupt shift of alliances was a symbolic culmination of Italy’s very chaotic late-World War II upheaval. A new Italian government under Prime Minister Pietro Badoglio surrendered to the Allies on September 3. Germany responded by springing former PM Benito Mussolini from prison and establishing on September 23 the Italian Social Republic (RSI), AKA the Republic of Salò. This Italian declaration of war came as the Allies were moving on German-occupied/RSI-ruled Rome.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) has reportedly widened its northern Gaza assault, cutting the Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya, and Jabalia areas off from Gaza city and advancing into the city’s northern suburbs. It’s been nine days since the IDF began what appears to be an attempt to cleanse northern Gaza of human life (temporarily, Israeli officials insist) and according to Palestinian authorities the death toll in this operation stands at 300 and counting. That’s only an estimate, because the lack of functioning medical facilities and the inability of first responders to get to places where the IDF has been rampaging prevent any sort of accurate casualty count. Likewise there’s no real insight into humanitarian conditions but they’re surely dire given the dearth of aid getting into the area.
A member of Palestine’s United Nations mission, Majed Bamya, took to social media on Saturday to call what’s happening in northern Gaza right now “a genocide within the genocide,” and indeed what is happening there now appears to be an intensification of what the IDF has been doing across the territory for the past year. The AP reported on Sunday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “examining a plan to seal off humanitarian aid to northern Gaza in an attempt to starve out Hamas militants,” which is kind of baffling inasmuch as it seems clear that he’s not “examining” it, he’s doing it. The IDF insists that it is not implementing what’s become known as the “Generals’ Plan,” which would give civilians in northern Gaza an interval during which they can evacuate the area before the whole zone is cordoned off and anyone left inside deemed an enemy combatant by default. But everything Israeli forces have been doing since at least the start of October suggests that’s exactly what they’re doing.
In other items:
Another IDF attack on a school-turned-shelter, this one in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp, killed at least 15 people (UPDATE: Al Jazeera is reporting at least 22 killed) on Sunday night. Israeli officials say they’re investigating reports of the strike, though at the risk of jumping the gun I’m going to go ahead and predict that they’ll “discover” that the shelter was Actually a secret Hamas command center. Also late Sunday, an IDF airstrike on a displaced persons tent camp in Deir al-Balah killed at least four people. The effect of this strike, which took place outside al-Aqsa Hospital, appears to have been horrifying, as the bombing sparked fires that incinerated people in their tents.
A few days ago, The New York Times published the results of a survey of 65 health care workers who’d spent time volunteering in Gaza. The findings are horrifying but perhaps not surprising to anybody who’s watched this atrocity unfold. A majority (44), for example, “saw multiple cases of preteen children who had been shot in the head or chest,” and nearly all (63) “observed severe malnutrition in patients, Palestinian medical workers and the general population.”
Haaretz, citing “senior defense officials,” is again reporting that the Israeli government is considering not just cleansing northern Gaza, but annexing it. Those officials also say the government has given up on ceasefire talks or recovering the remaining October 7 hostages, though that’s been clear for some time now. The report casts doubt on the stated rationale behind the IDF’s return to northern Gaza, claiming that “there was no intelligence to justify the move” of Israeli forces back into Jabalia and that soldiers who entered the area “did not directly encounter any terrorists.”
Haaretz is also reporting that the IDF has instituted a “tight arms economy” and is now requiring brigade commanders to approve the use of certain types of munitions. Apparently there is some concern about Israel’s stockpile of certain armaments due to restrictions imposed by the Canadian, German, and UK governments. I just thought I’d mention this in light of all the repeated claims that there’s nothing the Biden administration can do to curb Israel’s killing spree. US arms exports to Israel dwarf those of Canada, Germany, and the UK, and yet even a slowdown in munitions coming from those countries has apparently forced the Israelis to adjust the way they’re conducting operations. It’s not that the administration can’t stop this, it’s that it doesn’t want to stop it.
The Biden administration has decided to send a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system to Israel. This is to help defend Israel against future Iranian ballistic missile attacks. If you’re trying to read anything into this you may conclude that the administration expects Israel’s forthcoming attack against Iran to be severe enough that it will prompt an Iranian response. That said, it’s possible that deploying a THAAD to Israel was a concession the administration made to get the Israelis to reduce the severity of whatever they’re planning. Either way, this will put US soldiers in Israel participating directly in Israel’s conflict with Iran, which should remove any remaining pretense that the US is not a direct combatant in that conflict.
SYRIA
The US military’s Central Command announced on Saturday that it had “conducted a series of airstrikes against multiple known ISIS camps in Syria” the previous day. As far as I know it offered no information as to the locations of these camps or the effect of the strikes.
LEBANON
The UN is saying that two Israeli tanks burst through the main gate of a UNIFIL peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday, then left behind a couple of smoke shells that “sickened UN personnel” according to Reuters. The IDF claims that the tanks were attempting to withdraw under Hezbollah fire and backed into the base’s gate inadvertently, then used the smoke shells to cover their retreat. This justification would probably hold more water if the IDF hadn’t spent much of the previous week shooting at various UNIFIL positions, but I digress. Notably, earlier on Sunday Netanyahu ordered the UN to pull its peacekeepers out of southern Lebanon, a demand the UN appears to be rejecting at present.
On Saturday, the IDF ordered residents in 23 more southern Lebanese villages to evacuate north of the Awali River. Some of these villages have apparently already come under Israeli attack and have largely been emptied out. The IDF also warned that it will target ambulances, alleging that Hezbollah has been using such vehicles to transport weapons. Given that the Israelis have already killed some 50 paramedics in Lebanon this declaration also probably doesn’t come as a surprise.
Hezbollah carried out a drone strike on Sunday that hit a military facility near the Israeli town of Binyamina, south of Haifa. According to Israeli authorities the strike killed at least four soldiers and left more than 60 other people wounded.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Another outbreak of inter-communal violence left at least 16 people dead in the Kurram district of northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Saturday. Sunni and Shiʿa tribes have been embroiled in a long-standing conflict in that area, primarily over land disputes but with additional religious overtones given their sectarian leanings. According to authorities a convoy of Sunni tribesmen came under attack by Shiʿa fighters. At least 14 Sunnis were killed while police killed two of the attackers. Attempts at negotiating a ceasefire in this latest round of fighting, which broke out back in July, have so far proven elusive.
Meanwhile, I’ve seen two completely conflicting reports on Thursday’s attack on a coal mine in Baluchistan province that left 21 miners dead. Al Jazeera reported on Saturday that the Baluch Liberation Army had not only claimed responsibility for the attack but even asserted a higher death toll (30) while also arguing that their fighters killed Pakistani security forces who were “disguised” as miners. But Reuters reported on Sunday that the BLA had explicitly denied involvement and went so far as to “condemn” the attack. I have no explanation for the discrepancy.
MYANMAR
The Washington Post reports that Myanmar’s military is increasingly relying on drones to counter ascendant rebel forces:
Myanmar’s military has been ramping up its use of drones, deploying a combination of retrofitted commercial drones and customized military munitions to carry out a torrent of deadly strikes against rebel forces and civilians, according to visual evidence of recent attacks and interviews with people inside the country.
This is a new tactic for the military, which has struggled to consolidate control over Myanmar since seizing power from a democratically elected government in 2021, and has faced a series of setbacks since last October.
After being hammered by a major rebel offensive, the military has clawed back some territory in the south but lost more ground in the northwest and east of Myanmar. As rebels capture towns closer to the capital Naypyidaw, surveillance and attack drones have filled critical gaps in the military’s defense, including providing support for its overstretched air force and helping to compensate for a lack of manpower, said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based security analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The most significant development in this area seems to be the military’s acquisition of Russian-made surveillance drones, which it’s been using to improve the accuracy of all of its weapons, not just drone munitions.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military killed at least 23 people and wounded some 40 more in an airstrike on a market in Khartoum on Saturday, according to local health personnel. The military has reportedly been striking Rapid Support Forces positions in central and southern Khartoum since Friday and may be making another push into the city from neighboring Omdurman.
NIGERIA
The AP reports that the Nigerian government is forcing thousands of people displaced by jihadist violence to return home despite dangerous conditions:
When Boko Haram launched an insurgency in northeastern Nigeria in 2010, Abdulhameed Salisu packed his bag and fled from his hometown of Damasak in the country’s battered Borno state.
The 45-year-old father of seven came back with his family early last year. They are among thousands of Nigerians taken back from displacement camps to their villages, hometowns or newly built settlements known as “host communities” under a resettlement program that analysts say is being rushed to suggest the conflict with the Islamic militants is nearly over.
Across Borno, dozens of displacement camps have been shut down, with authorities claiming they are no longer needed and that most places from where the displaced fled are now safe.
But many of the displaced say it’s not safe to go back.
EUROPE
LITHUANIA
Lithuanian voters headed to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, and while counting is still underway the early results point to a win of sorts for the center-left Social Democrats. With around 60 percent of the vote counted, the SD party was at 22 percent of the vote and party leader Vilija Blinkevičiūtė was talking about her plans to form a coalition with two smaller parties, Farmers and Greens and For Lithuania. The election seems to have turned on economic issues, with inflation in particular causing the current ruling Homeland Union party to drop to third place at last count.
UKRAINE
Ukrainian human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets called for an international response on Sunday to reports that Russian forces summarily executed nine Ukrainian POWs in Russia’s Kursk oblast on Thursday. The Ukrainian personnel, identified as “drone operators and contractors,” had surrendered to the Russians before they were killed according to Ukrainian officials.
In Ukraine, meanwhile, the Russian military has carried out five attacks over the past week in Ukraine’s Odesa area, killing at least 14 people and threatening civilian shipping operations. That includes grain shipments that are a crucial element in many countries’ food imports, particularly across Africa and the Middle East. The Russians and Ukrainians negotiated the creation of a shipping corridor in July 2022, and even after Moscow refused to renew it last year Russian forces had largely refrained from attacking commercial shipping in the Black Sea. It’s unclear why the Russians appear to have changed policy.
POLAND
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Saturday that his government will introduce a “temporary territorial suspension of the right to asylum” in response to the continued flow of migrants from Belarus. Tusk’s government accuses Minsk of trying to “weaponize” migrants as a method of destabilization and it will ask the European Union to ratify this suspension, though the idea that the current situation constitutes the sort of national emergency that might justify suspending fundamental human rights seems debatable to say the least.
ICELAND
Icelandic Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson dissolved parliament on Sunday, citing the collapse of his three party governing coalition. Said coalition, a somewhat untenable collection of right-wing, center-right, and left parties, has fractured over multiple issues in recent weeks. Benediktsson will have to get the approval of President Halla Tómasdóttir but that doesn’t seem like it will be an obstacle. Assuming she agrees, Benediktsson says he intends to schedule the ensuing snap election for November 30.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, courtesy of Jacobin here’s historian Rashid Khalidi on the Biden administration’s responsibility for the overwhelming suffering in Gaza and now Lebanon:
The first thing we have to do is to disabuse ourselves of the notion that the United States has any reservations about what Israel is doing. Israel is doing what it is doing in careful and close coordination with Washington, and with its full approval. The United States does not just arm and diplomatically protect what Israel does; it shares Israel’s goals and approves of Israel’s methods.
The tut-tutting, the pooh-poohing, and the crocodile tears about humanitarian issues and civilian casualties are pure hypocrisy. The United States has signed on to Israel’s approach to Lebanon — it wants Israel to destroy Hezbollah and Hamas. It does not have any reservations about the basic approach of Israel, which is to attack the civilian population in order to force change in Lebanon and obviously in Gaza.
It is a category mistake to assume that there are any reservations on the part of American policymakers, whether we are talking about Biden, Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Brett McGurk, Amos Hochstein, or Samantha Power — all down the line. It is wrong to imagine that there are any reservations about the shared Israeli-American objectives.
We are living in a world of illusion if we believe anything that these people say. They have signed on to the slaughter of civilians in order to force changes, which include the elimination of Hamas from the Palestinian political map and the elimination of Hezbollah from the Lebanese political map. Those are shared objectives being carried out together in coordination.
Ibn Batutta, what a throwback! I’ll have to tune in to that podcast thanks for the heads up Derek.
You do a very good job with these summaries.