World roundup: October 10-11 2020
Stories from Iraq, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, and more
Be on the lookout for Daniel Bessner’s next FX column, coming this Tuesday!
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
October 9, 1740: Dutch colonial authorities and native sympathizers brutally suppress an uprising among ethnic Chinese citizens of Batavia (modern Jakarta). By the end of the massacre, on October 22, more than 10,000 people were dead—nearly all of them Chinese—and the city’s remaining Chinese residents were moved into a “Chinatown” outside the city that functioned more as a detention camp than a residential neighborhood.
October 9, 1967: Ernesto “Che” Guevara is executed by Bolivian authorities one day after being captured while attempting to foment a communist revolution.
October 10 (maybe), 732 (again maybe): The Battle of Tours
October 10, 1911: An uprising in the city of Wuchang (which is now a part of the city of Wuhan) led by the Tongmenghui movement leads to the Xinhai Revolution. It ended in February 1912 with the toppling of the Qing Dynasty and the formation of the Republic of China. This marked the end of thousands of years of imperial Chinese rule. Commemorated today in Taiwan as the National Day of the Republic of China.
October 11, 1899: The Second Boer War begins. Though the Boer states had some initial success, the war ended in May 1902 with an overwhelming British victory and the collapse of both the South African Republic and the Orange Free State. Among the war’s many atrocities was the popularization of the concentration camp, which Britain used to house huge numbers of Boer civilians, many of whom died due to the brutally inhumane treatment to which they were subjected.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 11:
37,736,803 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (8,312,488 active, +278,013 since yesterday)
1,081,252 reported fatalities (+3874 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
2052 confirmed coronavirus cases (+1)
595 reported fatalities (+0)
Saudi state media reported on Saturday that Saudi forces in Yemen shot down two Houthi drones. There was no comment from the Houthis, but the report emphasizes the fact that the Yemen war is backsliding away from peace talks. Civilian casualties in Yemen in September were higher than in any month since last November—67 killed and 123 wounded—due mostly to escalating fighting around Hudaydah and in Marib province.
TURKEY
335,533 confirmed cases (+1502)
8837 reported fatalities (+59)
Turkish officials have reportedly decided to send their seismic exploration ship, the Oruç Reis, back out into the eastern Mediterranean to look for offshore oil and gas deposits. That’s unlikely to sit well with the Greek government, since the Oruç Reis has been at the center of disputes between Greece and Turkey over ownership of those deposits and its agenda apparently includes a return to contested waters. Ankara recalled Oruç Reis to port last month, ostensibly for maintenance but more to create an opening for diplomacy. Apparently that opening is, uh, no longer open.
IRAQ
402,330 confirmed cases (+2206)
9852 reported fatalities (+62)
An umbrella group of Iraqi militias calling itself the “Iraqi Resistance Coordination Commission” said over the weekend that it has presented an offer to the Iraqi government: they will stop attacking US facilities and personnel in Iraq if Baghdad sets a timetable for the full withdrawal of US military forces from the country. That group apparently includes Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful of Iraq’s Iran-backed paramilitary groups and the one that’s been the most acting in attacking US interests since the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad back in January. Kataib Hezbollah’s spokesman, Mohammed Mohi, told Reuters on Sunday that the militias have no deadline for US forces to leave but will resume their attacks without a clear indication that they are leaving.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
290,493 confirmed cases (+618) in Israel, 44,299 confirmed cases (+354) in Palestine
1980 reported fatalities (+39) in Israel, 381 reported fatalities (+3) in Palestine
Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen said on Sunday that the Israeli government would oppose any US attempt to sell F-35s to Qatar, on the grounds that it would weaken Israel’s military edge in the Middle East. The Israeli government doesn’t have a direct veto over US arms sales in the Middle East but generally when it makes its opposition clear it can (with a few notable exceptions) generate enough political pressure in Washington to quash the deal. The Qataris want the F-35 because the UAE is likely to buy the aircraft. The Israelis aren’t thrilled with that potential sale either, but clearance to buy the F-35 was UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s main demand in agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.
KUWAIT
111,116 confirmed cases (+548)
658 reported fatalities (+3)
The European Council on Foreign Relations’ Cinzia Bianco has written a worthwhile piece on the deaths of Omani Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said and, more recently, Kuwaiti Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, which potentially deprives Western governments of their two most reliable mediators in the Persian Gulf. Both Qaboos and Sabah tried to balance relations with disparate regional parties (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, the UAE, etc.), and for different reasons (Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said is confronting the fact that his country is broke and needs Saudi and Emirati financial help, while new Kuwaiti Emir Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah doesn’t have a track record as a diplomat) their countries may no longer be able to maintain that balance. As Bianco argues, Western governments could help support Omani and Kuwaiti neutrality to try to preserve their status, but that might be easier said than done.
IRAN
500,075 confirmed cases (+3822)
28,544 reported fatalities (+251)
International Atomic Energy Agency boss Rafael Grossi said in an interview published Saturday that Iran does not currently have the “significant quantity” of uranium it would need to dash to a nuclear bomb if it chose to do so. There’s no evidence the Iranians have decided or would decide to make a dash to a bomb, but the Trump administration has (baselessly, as it turns out) started claiming that the Iranians have enough uranium to produce a warhead.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
41,982 confirmed cases (+230)
609 reported fatalities (+1)
When we left off on Friday, the Russian government had managed to convince the foreign ministers of both Armenian and Azerbaijan to attend talks on a ceasefire in Moscow. The odds were long, especially given that the Azerbaijani government in particular has shown no interest in making concessions, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and crew succeeded anyway, getting both sides to agree to at least a temporary ceasefire in and around the breakaway Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, starting at midday Saturday. The unlikely success marks both a welcome respite, after almost two weeks of fighting, and a diplomatic coup for Moscow, which had seemed powerless to stop the ongoing fighting in its own back yard. It stands as a monument to the possibility of achi-aaaand it’s over.
Well, maybe. Within hours of the ceasefire going into effect, reports of heavy Azerbaijani attacks on the de facto capital of Karabakh, Stepanakert, suggested that it was going to be short-lived. Then came the Azerbaijani accusations that Karabakh’s forces were violating the ceasefire and had killed at least nine civilians in the city of Ganja. The fighting has been heated enough to draw an expression of “extreme” concern from the European Union. Now the situation is…unclear. The ceasefire definitely hasn’t taken hold fully, which to be fair is not an uncommon thing in these situations. But both sides are still accusing one another of violating the ceasefire, so at least they haven’t discarded it entirely. And people in the region are suggesting that there has been a palpable reduction in violence since the ceasefire theoretically became active. So maybe it will hold together after all.
KYRGYZSTAN
49,230 confirmed cases (+306)
1085 reported fatalities (+3)
Things are similarly muddled in Kyrgyzstan, where protests in the wake of last Sunday’s parliamentary election have, over the past week, caused the annulment of that election, sprung ex-President Almazbek Atambayev from prison, forced the resignation of the country’s (former) prime minister, and drawn an offer of resignation from President Soonronbay Jeenbekov. For the second time in less than a week, a rump parliament, whose legitimacy is questionable and which may not have had a legal quorum, elected Sadyr Japarov as Kyrgyzstan’s new prime minister on Saturday. Japarov had been in prison on kidnapping charges until the protesters sprung him along with Atambayev.
Japarov may wind up getting a promotion to president in the next few days. Saturday’s vote was apparently conducted with Jeenbekov’s blessing, and coincided with the re-arrest of Atambayev, Jeenbekov’s one-time mentor turned bitter rival. This all looks like Jeenbekov is consolidating power after a week-long vacuum. Except that Japarov said on Saturday that Jeenbekov is still committed to resigning as soon as there’s a cabinet in place. The first person in the Kyrgyz line of succession is the speaker of parliament, but as it happens parliament speaker Myktybek Abdyldayev has already resigned so that office is currently vacant. That would leave Japarov, assuming you agree that he’s legally PM (he may not be, even though he’s already making major personnel decisions), next in line.
Things are reportedly calm in Bishkek, the result of Jeenbekov’s decision on Friday to impose a state of emergency and empower his security forces to enforce it. But it’s still a very tense and clearly unsettled situation.
TAJIKISTAN
10,222 confirmed cases (+42)
79 reported fatalities (+0)
Tajik voters (well, some of them, I assume) headed to the polls on Sunday for their presidential election. Incumbent Emomali Rahmon is running for a fifth term against four people who each have about the same chance of being elected president of Tajikistan as I do, and I’m not legally eligible to run. By custom, and because they presumably all value their own lives and freedom, none of them have criticized Rahmon during whatever has passed for a “campaign.”
CHINA
85,557 confirmed cases (+21) on the mainland, 5183 confirmed cases (+7) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 105 reported fatalities (+0) in Hong Kong
The Chinese government announced Friday that it is joining COVAX, an international project to produce and distribute potential COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. The initiative is intended to ensure that vaccines will be available to developing countries as well as in wealthy developed countries, with wealthy countries agreeing to purchase doses through COVAX to finance free or low cost distribution to poorer countries. The US has of course refused to join, along with several other Western countries, so this is an opportunity for China to fill the gap to some degree and possibly to ensure that any vaccine it develops has a leg up on vaccines developed in the US or Europe in terms of global spread.
NORTH KOREA
No confirmed cases
The North Korean government decided to hold a big old military parade on Saturday, just like in the good old days before the coronavirus. The rationale for the parade was unclear until the North Koreans rolled out four of what is apparently a massive new intercontinental ballistic missile, which is probably the new “strategic weapon” Kim Jong-un started talking about ominously late last year. The whopper of a missile looks to be one of the largest mobile ICBMs in the world, assuming it works (they haven’t tested it, obviously, so it’s hard to say for certain), and is presumably designed to hold multiple nuclear warheads. In a speech, Kim stressed the deterrent nature of the new weapon, perhaps to avoid raising tensions with the US.
JAPAN
88,912 confirmed cases (+679)
1627 reported fatalities (+3)
Japanese officials accused the Chinese Coast Guard of sending two ships into disputed waters around the Senkaku (or Diaoyu, as they’re known in China) Islands on Sunday. The Japanese Coast Guard deployed its own vessels in response and it’s unclear where things stand now.
AFRICA
LIBYA
42,712 confirmed cases (+1026)
631 reported fatalities (+8)
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said on Saturday that it plans to restart negotiations on a political settlement to the Libyan war next month, with a meeting of its Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Tunisia. The LPDF is supposed to create “consensus” around a new Libyan political process and governing framework. It’s done a bang-up job so far.
On the plus side, I suppose, Libya’s largest oil field, Sharara, restarted production on Sunday and could get up to 300,000 barrels per day in relatively short order. That would just about double Libya’s current oil production.
IVORY COAST
20,154 confirmed cases (+26)
120 reported fatalities (+0)
An estimated 20,000 people rallied in Abidjan on Saturday to protest against Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara’s controversial decision to seek a third term in the October 31 presidential election. At least 12 people have been killed in protests over Ouattara’s status since he announced in August that he would run, following the abrupt death of his chosen successor, Amadou Gon Goulibaly. For more context on this story, please check out Friday’s podcast featuring researcher Jessica Moody from Kings College London.
EUROPE
LITHUANIA
6122 confirmed cases (+160)
103 reported fatalities (+0)
Lithuania held the first round of its parliamentary election on Sunday, and at this point it looks like the center-right Homeland Union party is in the lead. With about half the votes counted Homeland Union is ahead of the centrist Farmers and Greens Union, the largest party in Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis’ coalition, 20.5 percent to 19.5 percent. Obviously nobody is on track for an overwhelming victory here, though the final results won’t be known until after the second round. Lithuania’s 141 seat parliament is elected in a hybrid system, so 70 seats will be allocated by proportional vote based on Sunday’s election, and the other 71 will be chosen in district elections, the runoffs for which will be held on October 25. Skvernelis has been criticized for his response to the pandemic and his management of the Lithuanian economy.
BELARUS
83,534 confirmed cases (+1063)
896 reported fatalities (+11)
Belarusian authorities arrested at least 285 people nationwide on Sunday as opposition leaders again organized large protests calling, as they’ve done every week since August’s disputed election, for President Alexander Lukashenko’s resignation. Lukashenko shows no signs that he’s getting ready to depart, but he is taking some diplomatic heat. The UK became the latest European country to recall its ambassador from Minsk on Saturday, in an expression of solidarity for the governments of Poland and Lithuania. Both of those countries have now had their diplomatic corps in Minsk drastically reduced at the orders of Lukashenko’s government, due to their support for the Belarusian opposition. Seven other European Union member countries have recalled their own ambassadors from Minsk, and now the UK has joined them.
CYPRUS
2006 confirmed cases (+20)
25 reported fatalities (+0)
Sunday’s Northern Cypriot presidential election is heading to a runoff. Incumbent Mustafa Akıncı, a relative moderate who supports negotiations with Greek Cypriots on reunifying the country, came in second in the first round with just under 30 percent of the vote, behind nationalist Prime Minister Ersin Tatar at a bit over 32 percent. Tatar’s strongest supporters may be in Ankara, and Akıncı has “complained of political meddling” from Turkey during the campaign. Tatar may be the favorite heading into the runoff, although there’s been no polling in the race in months as far as I know.
AMERICAS
BOLIVIA
138,463 confirmed cases (+237)
8292 reported fatalities (+30)
New polling shows the race between Movement for Socialism candidate Luis Arce and conservative former President Carlos Mesa for the Bolivian presidency is tightening, and that could mean that Mesa is in the driver’s seat ahead of the October 18 election. A survey from the “Your Vote Counts” consortium has Arce at 33.6 percent, ahead of Mesa at 26.8 percent but nowhere near meeting the conditions for a first round win (40 percent or more with a 10 percent or greater lead over the runner up). Most polling that I’ve seen has had Arce winning the first round, but trailing Mesa in a potential runoff.
BRAZIL
5,094,979 confirmed cases (+3139)
150,506 reported fatalities (+270)
Despite arrogantly, and at times comically, mismanaging Brazil’s coronavirus outbreak to the tune of more than five million infections and more than 150,000 deaths, Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity is spiking.
Doing great! (Brazilian government via Wikimedia Commons)
Why? Because his government started making regular emergency assistance payments to millions of Brazilians back in April. Sure, the Brazilian Congress was responsible for forcing Bolsonaro to increase the size of those aid payments, but nevertheless he’s gotten the credit. Unfortunately for Bolsonaro, the aid payments are due to run out by the end of this year and he’s not up for reelection until 2022, so he’s got plenty of time to lose the goodwill he’s gained. He plans to implement a new, smaller assistance program next year, but since he won’t (and maybe can’t) raise taxes on his wealthy backers, the amount of assistance he can offer may be limited.
UNITED STATES
7,991,998 confirmed cases (+41,935)
219,695 reported fatalities (+325)
Finally, and while we’re all snickering at North Korea for parading its new ICBMs around, TomDispatch’s Michael Klare looks at the Trump administration’s own embrace of nuclear showmanship in pursuit of its foreign policy agenda:
At a more hopeful time, President Barack Obama sought to downsize this country’s nuclear arsenal and prevent the use of such weapons for anything beyond deterrence (although his administration also commenced an expensive “modernization” of that arsenal). In his widely applauded Nobel Peace Prize speech of April 5, 2009, Obama swore to “put an end to Cold War thinking” and “reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy.” Unfortunately, Donald Trump has sought to move the dial in the opposite direction, including increasing the use of nukes as coercive instruments.
The president’s deep desire to bolster the role of nuclear weapons in national security was first spelled out in his administration’s Nuclear Posture Review of February 2018. In addition to calling for the accelerated modernization of the nuclear arsenal, it also endorsed the use of such weapons to demonstrate American “resolve” — in other words, a willingness to go to the nuclear brink over political differences. A large and diverse arsenal was desirable, the document noted, to “demonstrate resolve through the positioning of forces, messaging, and flexible response options.” Nuclear bombers were said to be especially useful for such a purpose: “Flights abroad,” it stated, “display U.S. capabilities and resolve, providing effective signaling for deterrence and assurance, including in times of tension.”
Ever since, the Trump administration has been deploying the country’s nuclear bomber fleet of B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s with increasing frequency to “display U.S. capabilities and resolve,” particularly with respect to Russia and China.