World roundup: October 1 2020
Stories from Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
September 30, 737: The Battle of the Baggage
September 30, 1938: The leaders of Britain, France, Italy, and Nazi Germany sign the Munich Agreement, giving the Nazis control of Czechoslovakia’s predominantly German Sudetenland region. Depending on your worldview you may regard British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s actions here as either the most vile act of appeasement in human history, a necessary evil (that Chamberlain may still have handled badly) given that Britain was in no shape for a war in 1938, or the germ of a plan Chamberlain had to ally with Hitler against the Soviet Union. You decide.
October 1, 331 BC: This is the generally accepted date for the Battle of Gaugamela, in which Alexander the Great’s Greek-Macedonian army decisively defeated a larger Persian army and almost instantly gained control over the western half of the Persian Achaemenid Empire. Persian Emperor Darius fled east hoping to recruit a new army, but he was murdered by his cousin Bessus, who proclaimed himself the new emperor. His reign was short-lived, as Alexander had conquered the whole empire by 329.
Flemish painter Jan Brueghel the Elder’s 1602 work The Battle of Gaugamela (Wikimedia Commons)
October 1, 1827: An imperial Russian army defeats the Qajars at Yerevan during the 1826-1828 Russo-Persian War. The Russians followed up by capturing Tabriz, the largest northern Iranian city, at which point the Qajars surrendered. Under the terms of the ensuing treaty, they gave both the Erivan Khanate and the Nakhichevan Khanate to the Russians. This effectively created the modern nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively, and ended centuries of Persian domination in the southern Caucasus—which would henceforth be dominated by Russia instead.
October 1, 1918: Britain’s Egyptian Expeditionary Force captures Damascus, effectively bringing World War I to an end in the Middle East.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for October 1:
34,465,592 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (7,784,726 active, +315,031 since yesterday)
1,027,054 reported fatalities (+8843 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
320,070 confirmed coronavirus cases (+1407)
8262 reported fatalities (+67)
Turkish officials admitted Wednesday that their public COVID-19 data does not include “asymptomatic” (in quotes because they’re not necessarily truly asymptomatic) cases, meaning they’ve been understating (perhaps significantly) the extent of Turkey’s outbreak. The revelation may be a little embarrassing for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but mostly I thought we should note this because Turkey probably isn’t the only country counting its cases in this way. Yet another reason to believe that the full scope of the pandemic is larger than what the statistics are telling us.
IRAQ
367,474 coronavirus cases (+4493)
9231 reported fatalities (+50)
Thousands of people protested in Baghdad and across southern Iraq on Thursday to mark the one year anniversary of the start of last fall’s anti-government demonstrations, which forced Iraqi authorities to…well, I don’t really know, to be honest. Iraq does have a new prime minister as a result of the protests, but its political framework is mostly unchanged. Hence the anniversary demonstration. Protest leaders have promised more to come unless Iraqi leaders do make some changes.
Both the Turkish and Iranian militaries have reportedly ramped up their use of surveillance (and increasingly attack) drones against Kurdish groups in northern Iraq. For the Turks the target is the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), while for the Iranians it’s the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDK-I). Indeed, Turkey’s use of drone strikes as a tactic against the PKK has become so heavy that it’s spilling over onto civilian populations like the Yazidis, many of whom were displaced by the Islamic State in 2014 and remain displaced in part because of Turkey. Iraqi authorities as ever are powerless to stop either country from operating militarily on their soil.
IRAN
461,044 confirmed cases (+3825)
26,380 reported fatalities (+211)
At Responsible Statecraft, Dan DePetris of the Defense Priorities think tank assesses the failure of the Trump administration’s Iran policy to achieve its stated purpose:
The genesis of the maximum pressure campaign as articulated by former national security adviser John Bolton and hawkish think tanks like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was founded upon a simplistic but appealing narrative: the Iranian Islamic regime has grand designs on the Middle East, including a kind of 21st century colonization that would swallow the region whole. Because this narrative was already fully entrenched in Washington’s security and intelligence establishment, it was a relatively easy one to sell to an administration staffed to the gills with Iran hawks.
The main theoretical assumption underlying the maximum pressure campaign was as shallow as it was tempting: pummel the Iranian economy with so many restrictions that the ayatollahs would have no choice but to crawl back to the table on their hands and knees and negotiate a new agreement on Washington’s terms.
However, knowing that caving to U.S. demands would leave it highly vulnerable to similar tactics in the future, the Iranian government has held firm to its original position: if the U.S. wants to talk about a bigger and better deal, it must first re-enter the original Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action (JCPOA) and compensate Tehran for its losses. The Trump administration, as can be expected, finds Iran’s demands absurd, if not insulting. Indeed, as of this writing, the White House, State Department, and Treasury are actively debating blacklisting what is left of the entire Iranian financial sector and thereby severing it from the international community.
I say “stated purpose” because the unstated purpose is, if Iranian leaders won’t surrender peacefully, to provoke them into taking some kind of action that would spark a military conflict with the United States, but FDD et al can’t say that openly. On that front the administration has also failed so far, but it’s probably still too soon to say it’s failed completely.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
40,309 confirmed cases (+80)
593 reported fatalities (+2)
Thursday marked day five in the latest military clash between Azerbaijan and Armenia (including Karabakh separatists) over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The fighting has so far killed at least 135 people in total, though that’s only the number of confirmed dead and the actual death toll is probably higher (though probably not as high as the inflated number of deaths each side is claiming to have inflicted upon the other). An accurate casualty figure is difficult to determine, in part because the Azerbaijani government insists, in the face of anecdotal evidence and common sense to the contrary, that it’s suffered zero casualties since the fighting began on Sunday. Azerbaijani forces still appear to be on the offensive but after a few initial territorial gains it’s unclear whether they’ve been able to make any real progress.
The three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which oversees the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process (such as it is)—France, Russia, and the United States—issued a joint statement on Thursday calling for a ceasefire, but there’s little chance of that at this point. In terms of outside involvement the main story continues to be the extent of Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan. French President Emmanuel Macron has been basically accusing Ankara of provoking this flare-up, and on Thursday he openly blamed Azerbaijan for starting the fighting on Sunday. That is probably what happened, factually speaking, but regardless Macron’s remarks risk angering the Azerbaijanis, which will make it more difficult for France to play a peacemaking role.
At this point I think it’s safe to stop talking about “allegations” that Turkey is sending Syrian mercenaries to fight for Azerbaijan, given that the bodies of Syrian fighters are starting to turn up. Nevertheless, Azerbaijani officials continue to deny the Syrian claim and have argued that it is a deliberate distraction from the real issue, which for them is the fact that Armenia has been occupying Azerbaijani territory (not just Nagorno-Karabakh but also several regions surrounding it) since the 1990s. The Armenians have seized on the Turkey angle, which is perhaps understandable in light of the history of Turkish-Armenian relations. Armenian officials are portraying their cause as one of opposition to Turkish expansionism and are characterizing Syrian fighters as “jihadis” who are bringing “Sharia law” with them to Azerbaijan. That seems a little overblown, but it does make for effective propaganda when you consider Armenia’s audience is Russia and the West.
AFGHANISTAN
39,285 confirmed cases (+17)
1458 reported fatalities (+0)
A suicide bomber killed at least 11 people in Helmand province late Wednesday. Given the location it’s likely a Taliban unit was responsible.
PAKISTAN
312,806 confirmed cases (+543)
6484 reported fatalities (+5)
At World Politics Review, analyst Aryaman Bhatnagar describes the shift underway in Pakistani foreign policy:
Pakistan depends on Saudi Arabia for its substantial financial aid and shipments of oil on deferred payment terms. Saudi largesse has bailed out Pakistan on numerous occasions in the past, particularly in shoring up its foreign exchange reserves or addressing its debt crises. Remittances from Pakistani migrant workers based in Saudi Arabia also account for a quarter of Pakistan’s total remittances from abroad.
However, Pakistan is keen to reduce its dependency on Saudi Arabia over time, and consequently diminish Saudi influence over its domestic politics and foreign policy. A major realignment in its foreign policy, where it can follow its priorities independent of Riyadh’s preferences, will be gradual, but seems to already be underway.
One indication of this new direction was Pakistan’s initial decision to participate in a Malaysian-hosted summit of Muslim-majority nations in December 2019. The meeting was boycotted by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, but was attended by prominent Saudi rivals like Qatar, Iran and Turkey. Although Pakistan reluctantly withdrew from this summit at the last minute under Saudi pressure, Khan has been keen to promote relations with both Iran and Turkey since he assumed office. He has publicly acknowledged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as one of his political heroes. While Pakistan may not push for the creation of a separate Islamic bloc, as Qureshi’s veiled threat suggested, it is unlikely that it will continue to moderate its engagement with both countries in deference to Saudi Arabia.
INDIA
6,391,960 confirmed cases (+81,693)
99,804 reported fatalities (+1096)
Indian officials say that “unprovoked” Pakistani fire across the Line of Control in Kashmir killed three Indian soldiers on Thursday. Pakistani officials countered by accusing the Indian side of firing first and injuring one civilian.
CHINA
85,414 confirmed cases (+11) on the mainland, 5098 confirmed cases (+10) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 105 reported fatalities (+0) in Hong Kong
The arrival of another Chinese National Day on Thursday drew scattered protests across Hong Kong, but nothing on the scale of last year’s massive demonstrations that eventually turned violent. Undoubtedly bolstered by Hong Kong’s new security law and also by the pressures of the pandemic, Hong Kong authorities seem to have had little trouble keeping this year’s protests under control.
AFRICA
SUDAN
13,653 confirmed cases (+7)
836 reported fatalities (+0)
The Sudanese government and the rebel umbrella Sudan Revolutionary Front will sign a peace deal Saturday in the capital of South Sudan, Juba. The agreement is a milestone in terms of bringing Sudan’s multiple insurgencies, in the south and in Darfur, to an end. There are still a couple of rebel holdouts, but one—the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North faction led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu—is negotiating its own peace deal with Khartoum. The other holdout, a faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Abdul Wahid al-Nur, shows no sign of slowing down its insurgency.
Meanwhile, Sudan’s Islamic Fiqh Council, which is the country’s top religious authority, issued a ruling on Thursday opposing a potential Sudan-Israel diplomatic normalization agreement. That’s a blow to the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to secure such a deal before the November election. Sudan’s civilian interim government has already expressed concern that normalizing relations with Israel could cause a domestic backlash, and the council’s ruling will likely exacerbate those concerns. Interestingly, a couple of Sudanese rebel groups and at least one of the country’s political factions have come out in favor of normalization, if that’s what it takes to get Sudan taken off the US State Department’s list of terrorism sponsors.
MALI
3131 confirmed cases (+13)
131 reported fatalities (+0)
In another concession to the Economic Community of West African States, the Malian junta appears to have removed a provision in its governing charter that would allow the vice president to automatically replace the president in case of incapacity. ECOWAS, which imposed severe sanctions on Mali in the wake of its coup in August, has been urging the junta to restore civilian governance if it wants to see those sanctions lifted. The regional bloc objected to the succession provision because while Mali’s new interim president, Boris Ndaw, is a civilian (technically), its interim vice president, Assimi Goïta, is the junta’s leader. That raised concerns that Ndaw’s appointment was purely for show and that he would step aside in favor of Goïta once ECOWAS lifted the sanctions.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
1,185,231 confirmed cases (+8945)
20,891 reported fatalities (+169)
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Thursday rejected US preconditions for an extension of New START, which expires in February. The Trump administration has been demanding assurances that a future successor to New START include stronger verification provisions and include the US, Russia, and China, rather than just the US and Russia. China, which has a much smaller nuclear arsenal than either the US or Russia, has suggested it would only participate in such a process if the US reduced its nuclear stockpile to China’s level, which obviously the US is not going to do. And despite its apparent believe that the Russian government can somehow force China to come to the bargaining table, even if it wanted to do so Moscow doesn’t have that kind of leverage.
The Russian rejection means that, unless Joe Biden wins the November election, New START is in all likelihood going to lapse in a few months. Both US and Russian officials have hinted that they’re ready to restart a nuclear arms race if that happens. Given the ridiculous nature of its demands, it’s reasonable to conclude that the Trump administration wants New START to lapse but doesn’t want to be blamed for it.
BELARUS
79,019 confirmed cases (+388)
839 reported fatalities (+6)
Belarusian authorities have suspended independent news outlet Tut.by, which has apparently angered them by covering the recent protests against President Alexander Lukashenko. The authorities have justified this action with the claim that Tut.by “published prohibited information,” but haven’t said what that alleged information was or when it was allegedly published. The outlet can continue to operate as an internet entity but will lose some of its journalistic latitude.
CYPRUS
1772 confirmed cases (+17)
22 reported fatalities (+0)
European Union leaders have reportedly come to an agreement on unfreezing the bloc’s planned sanctions against several senior Belarusian officials over August’s disputed election and the crackdown on protesters that followed. The Cypriot government was blocking the sanctions in an effort to force the EU to punish Turkey for its recent actions in the eastern Mediterranean. Full details aren’t available, but from what I can tell the agreement obligates the EU to meet in December to assess Turkey’s actions with an eye toward possibly imposing sanctions on Ankara at that point. That gives the EU a couple of months to continue diplomacy with Turkey (which is starting to bear some fruit—see below).
GREECE
18,886 confirmed cases (+411)
393 reported fatalities (+2)
With NATO mediation, the Greek and Turkish governments agreed Thursday to set up a de-confliction hotline in order to minimize the chances of an accident causing a military confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean. Both militaries have been on edge due to tensions over ownership of offshore energy deposits in the region. Those tensions have subsided a bit over the past couple of weeks but a ship collision or similar incident could still easily send things spiraling out of control.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
75,122 confirmed cases (+0)
628 reported fatalities (+0)
Venezuela’s gasoline shortage is now impacting the country’s food supply chain, preventing farmers from fueling their vehicles and truckers from getting food to market. That supply chain was already straining under sanctions and amid the broader collapse of Venezuela’s economy, which was then compounded by the pandemic. But these fuel shortages are impacting the Venezuelan government’s efforts to distribute food aid to needy people to try to mitigate the crisis.
UNITED STATES
7,494,671 confirmed cases (+47,389)
212,660 reported fatalities (+920)
Finally, with his reelection campaign maybe in some trouble, if polling can be trusted, Donald Trump threw some meat to his base on Thursday by making the United States even less hospitable to refugees than it already was:
Hours after telling supporters in Minnesota that his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, would turn the state into a giant “refugee camp,” President Donald Trump’s administration announced historic cuts to the country's refugee admission program.
The administration told Congress late Wednesday night that it planned to bring no more than 15,000 refugees fleeing war and persecution to the United States in fiscal year 2021, compared to the maximum 18,000 permitted in 2020.
Trump has cut the country’s refugee intake three times before, first slashing former President Barack Obama’s quota by more than half, to 50,000, during his first year in office. The State Department cited a backlog of 1.1 million asylum cases and defended the new 15,000-person ceiling as one that reflects “administration’s continuing commitment to prioritize the safety and well-being of Americans, especially in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.”