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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
November 6, 1865: The CSS Shenandoah surrenders in Liverpool, almost six months after Confederate General Joseph Johnston’s surrender at Bennett Place, North Carolina, had ended the US Civil War. The Shenandoah circumnavigated the globe, having set out from England in October 1864 with a mission to disrupt Union commerce. It sailed through the Indian Ocean to Australia, then spent some time attacking US whaling vessels in the North Pacific before planning an attack on San Francisco and then aborting it when its captain, James Waddell, learned of the war’s end. He opted to return to Liverpool and surrender there due to concerns that his crew would be treated as pirates by the US government.
November 6, 1975: The Green March begins
November 7, 1917: The Third Battle of Gaza ends with the Ottoman Yıldırım Army Group abandoning Gaza and Britain’s Egyptian Expeditionary Force occupying the town. The first (in March) and second (in April) battles of Gaza had both ended in indecisive Ottoman victories, by which I mean the Ottomans held their positions but were unable to force the EEF back. Britain’s capture of Beersheba a week earlier was decisive and an extended British bombardment on November 6 proved to be the final straw for the Ottoman defenders. Capturing Gaza put the EEF well on its way to capturing Jerusalem, which it would do around Christmas.
November 8, 960: The Battle of Andrassos
November 8, 2002: The United Nations Security Council unanimously passes Resolution 1441, calling on Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to disarm under the terms of previous UN resolutions or face “serious consequences.” Funny story: Hussein had already disarmed, but we got to see what the serious consequences were anyway! It all really worked out just swell.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for November 8:
50,722,782 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (13,673,808 active, +472,468 since yesterday)
1,261,745 reported fatalities (+5839 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
394,255 confirmed coronavirus cases (+2516)
10,887 reported fatalities (+84)
According to his own Instagram page and the Turkish Finance Ministry, Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak has resigned. According to the rest of the Turkish government, run by Albayrak’s father in-law Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Albayrak has…well, we don’t know, because nobody seems to be talking. In his Instagram statement, Albayrak cited health reasons for his decision. But seeing as how he’s presided over a Turkish economy that has hit rock bottom and kept digging, the biggest threat to his health may be from Erdoğan. The Turkish president appointed a new central bank governor on Saturday in what could be the precursor to a large interest rate hike to stop the decline of the Turkish lira. Albayrak—and Erdoğan as well, at least until recently—had opposed a rate increase, so maybe the writing is on the wall. Anyway, the next Erdoğan family get together should be a real rocking good time.
IRAQ
498,549 confirmed cases (+2530)
11,327 reported fatalities (+44)
Unidentified attackers have killed at least 11 people and wounded eight more at an Iraqi military base in western Baghdad either overnight or early Monday. Details are still sketchy on this story and there’s been no claim of responsibility as yet.
Picking up where they left off last fall, Iraqi security forces fired live ammunition at protesters in Basra on Friday, killing at least one person and wounding 40 others. The Iraqi Interior Ministry says it didn’t authorize live fire and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi threatened on Sunday to prosecute any member of the security forces who fires on protesters, amid sketchy reports that the ministry had arrested somebody in connection with the shooting.
LEBANON
94,236 confirmed cases (+1139)
723 reported fatalities (+10)
The Trump administration on Friday blacklisted former Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement party, over his political alliance with Hezbollah. In announcing the move, the US Treasury Department accused Bassil of being at the “forefront of corruption in Lebanon,” which is probably fair but is also a distinction he shares with every other major Lebanese politician—including once and future Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri.
Bassil on Sunday suggested he would challenge the sanctions and even “sue for damages”—good luck with that, by the way—while his father in-law, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, said he would ask the US to provide the evidence it used to justify its decision. I’m not sure “evidence” is really the issue here. There’s no question Bassil has a political alliance with Hezbollah, so if that’s enough to trigger sanctions then it’s an open and shut case. What the administration probably intended to do here was to send a message to Bassil not to interfere with Hariri’s latest attempt to form a government. I guess we’ll see if the message was received.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
142,143 confirmed cases (+1111)
514 reported fatalities (+0)
The UAE is secularizing its law code a bit. Emirati officials announced several legal changes over the weekend, among other things decriminalizing alcohol consumption and permitting unmarried men and women to cohabitate. The most meaningful change involves the punishment of so-called “honor killings.” Such murders are illegal under Emirati law, but judges have been permitted to impose lenient sentences for them. That will no longer be the case.
IRAN
682,486 confirmed cases (+9236)
38,291 reported fatalities (+459)
Axios’s Barak Ravid reported Sunday that the Trump administration is planning to unleash a “flood” of sanctions again Iran during the lame duck period before Joe Biden becomes president in January. Ravid portrays this as a response to Biden’s victory and an attempt to prevent him from restarting diplomacy with Iran, but it sounds like something the administration has been cooking up for weeks and may have more to do with trying to reignite anti-government protests in Iran and/or provoke Iran into doing something that could spark a conflict. Regardless, the sanctions will not be tied to Iran’s nuclear program, which is by design since that means legally they’ll remain in place even if Biden rejoins the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and lifts all nuclear-related US sanctions against Iran.
ASIA
GEORGIA
57,753 confirmed cases (+2901)
475 reported fatalities (+34)
Hundreds of protesters demanding a redo of Georgia’s October 31 parliamentary election were met by police with water cannons in Tbilisi on Sunday. Opposition leaders are alleging that the election, in which the ruling Georgian Dream party won over 48 percent of the vote, was rigged. A coalition of opposition legislators have already pledged to boycott the parliament unless the result is overturned, which seems unlikely to say the least.
AZERBAIJAN
65,411 confirmed cases (+1663)
840 reported fatalities (+16)
The Azerbaijani government claimed Sunday that its military had captured the town of Shushi, or Shusha, in the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Karabakh government insists that its forces still hold the town and are resisting an Azerbaijani offensive. If the Azerbaijanis have taken Shushi it may be the endgame for both this conflict and the Karabakh Republic. Not only is Shushi the second largest city in Karabakh, it controls the all-important Lachin Corridor connecting Karabakh to Armenia and it sits within easy striking distance of the Karabakh capital, Stepanakert. Baku may be ready to stop and talk at this point, but if it decides to continue then the risk of overwhelming civilian casualties will increase precipitously.
AFGHANISTAN
42,092 confirmed cases (+59)
1558 reported fatalities (+2)
A car bombing in Kabul on Saturday killed at least three people. The target appears to have been former Afghan TV presenter Yama Siawash, who had been working for the Afghan Central Bank. Another bank employee and their driver were the other two people killed. There’s been no claim of responsibility. Also Saturday, suicide bombers killed at least two civilians in Zabul province, while at least five people were killed by a roadside bomb in Kandahar province.
INDIA
8,553,864 confirmed cases (+46,661)
126,653 reported fatalities (+491)
At least four Indian soldiers and three apparent Kashmiri separatist fighters were killed early Sunday in a clash near the Line of Control that separates Indian Kashmir from Pakistani Kashmir. Indian forces detected activity along the border but it’s unclear whether the rebels crossed over from Pakistani territory.
MYANMAR
61,377 confirmed cases (+1029)
1420 reported fatalities (+24)
The voters have spoken in Myanmar’s parliamentary election, and while the counting is nowhere near over it’s safe to say that Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party will emerge victorious and continue its power-sharing arrangement with the Myanmar military. The only real issue of note is the disenfranchisement of large minority populations that aren’t terribly thrilled with the Myanmar government in general. The Rohingya are denied the right to vote because they’re deemed non-citizens, and parts of Myanmar’s restive Kachin, Rakhine, and Shan provinces do not have any polling sites due to security concerns.
CHINA
86,212 confirmed cases (+28) on the mainland, 5375 confirmed cases (+10) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 107 reported fatalities (+0) in Hong Kong
The Trump administration decided on Friday to remove the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, also known as the Turkistan Islamic Party, from the State Department’s “terrorist exclusion list.” That list, while not as serious as the department’s “foreign terrorist organization” list, threatens sanctions against anyone found interacting with the organization in question. The State Department says it removed ETIM, which the Chinese government has blamed for numerous terrorist incidents in Xinjiang over the past 20-25 years, because it believes the group no longer exists. But the possibility that it removed the group simply to antagonize Beijing—which very much believes the ETIM still exists—cannot be ruled out. And if you really wanted to get conspiratorial, removing the ETIM from the TEL list could open the door to contact between the group and the United States government. Though I’m sure anything like that would be purely innocent and above-board.
AFRICA
LIBYA
68,117 confirmed cases (+1078)
929 reported fatalities (+9)
One of the main and, really, most important provisions of last month’s Libyan ceasefire was an agreement by both sides to send their foreign allies (Syrian mercenaries and Turkish advisers for the Government of National Accord, Russian mercenaries working for the Libyan National Army) back home. It’s unlikely there can be a durable ceasefire in Libya unless those fighters leave the country. That’s why it’s a little troubling that the warring militaries reached a ceasefire implementation agreement a few days ago that, well, didn’t mention foreign fighters at all. This could be an issue that is addressed in a second or later stage of implementation so it’s not as if the ceasefire has failed necessarily, but it’s a reason for concern.
GUINEA
12,414 confirmed cases (+14)
74 reported fatalities (+1)
The Guinean Constitutional Court on Saturday confirmed the results of last month’s Guinean presidential election, which incumbent Alpha Condé won fairly handily with just under 60 percent of the vote. Guinean opposition leaders had challenged the result but there was little chance it would be overturned. Condé’s victory—his candidacy, really—was controversial because he’s already served two terms, but a constitutional referendum earlier this year gave him the legal justification to claim his term limit counter had been reset.
IVORY COAST
20,832 confirmed cases (+19)
126 reported fatalities (+0)
In Ivory Coast, where incumbent Alassane Ouattara also won a controversial third term last month, opposition leader Pascal Affi N’Guessan has reportedly been arrested after attempting to establish a parallel government. N’Guessan was one of two presidential challengers—former Ivorian President Henri Konan Bédié was the other—who opted to boycott the October 31 vote. They and many of their leading supporters have rejected Ouattara’s victory and are in legal jeopardy because of it.
ETHIOPIA
99,675 confirmed cases (+474)
1523 reported fatalities (+5)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Sunday sacked his army commander, his intelligence chief, and his foreign minister. Why, you ask? Well, probably because the Ethiopian army appears to be getting pummeled by forces affiliated with the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Abiy ordered a military incursion into the Tigray region after accusing the TPLF of attacking a military base on Tuesday. Since then, scores of Ethiopian soldiers have reportedly been evacuated to the country’s Amhara region for medical treatment, though precise figures on the number of dead and wounded are hard to come by and the Ethiopian government has cut off communications in the Tigray region and is notoriously opaque when it comes to releasing information to the public.
Abiy’s offensive in Tigray had by Saturday reportedly escalated to include frequent airstrikes, amid claims that Tigrayan fighters had seized multiple military facilities in the region. The TPLF has potentially tens of thousands of fighters at its disposal, and if reports that they’ve seized the Ethiopian military’s Northern Command headquarters are accurate then they’re probably very well armed at this point. There is also a risk that Tigrayan soldiers within the Ethiopian military might decide to defect to the TPLF. Ethiopian forces are also operating at a disadvantage in that they can’t commit fully to fighting the TPLF without potentially creating other security risks, for example from al-Shabab in Somalia or with respect to the country’s other ethnic fault lines.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
1,774,334 confirmed cases (+20,498)
30,537 reported fatalities (+286)
The Russian government has been forced to deny a sketchy UK tabloid report, to which I alluded on Thursday, that Vladimir Putin is planning to resign for health reasons. The Russian government is obviously not the most reputable institution in the world, but then it’s not like UK tabloid media is swimming in credibility either. I figure I’ll believe Putin is resigning when he resigns. Probably not before then.
BELARUS
106,279 confirmed cases (+996)
1007 reported fatalities (+3)
The European Union on Friday officially blacklisted 15 Belarusian officials, including President Alexander Lukashenko, over August’s disputed election and a subsequent crackdown on Lukashenko’s political opponents. Brussels had already imposed asset freezes and travel bans on some 40 Belarusian officials, but it had held off on Lukashenko himself in hopes of engaging him diplomatically.
AMERICAS
BOLIVIA
142,427 confirmed cases (+84)
8790 reported fatalities (+9)
Luis Arce was inaugurated as Bolivia’s new president on Sunday, succeeding junta leader Jeanine Áñez—who, in a stirring display of graciousness and class, didn’t attend the event.

In his first address as president Arce criticized the putsch that removed former President Evo Morales from office last November and criticized Áñez’s management of the country. He also promised to build on the progress Morales made during his three terms as president, though between the damage the junta caused, the damage the pandemic continues to cause, and the damage that right wing agitators—who began openly calling for a military coup to oust Arce before he even took office—could cause, the new administration will have its work cut out for it just to restore Bolivia to where it was prior to the putsch.
COLOMBIA
1,143,887 confirmed cases (+7440)
32,791 reported fatalities (+196)
Colombian President Iván Duque on Friday met with former leaders of the FARC rebel group, promising to take steps to better implement the 2016 peace deal that ended their 52 year rebellion. Duque, who campaigned for president in 2018 in opposition to that deal, has governed like someone deliberately trying to undermine it, consistently failing to uphold government commitments around protecting former FARC fighters and integrating them into Colombian society. The former rebel leaders sought an audience with Duque to discuss the murder of 237 ex-FARC fighters since the peace deal was enacted.
UNITED STATES
10,288,480 confirmed cases (+102,726)
243,768 reported fatalities (+512)
Finally, I’ll leave you with a bit of the first of my two part (subscriber only) post-election piece, which covers issues where I think Joe Biden’s foreign policy will be better than Trump’s, where I think it risks being worse than Trump’s, and where it will be better than Trump’s but still not good enough:
There’s no greater global crisis looming on the horizon than climate change, and this is another area where Biden will likely be an improvement over Trump—again, to a point. I don’t want to belabor this because Bessner already covered it, but Biden plans to rejoin the Paris agreement and at least acknowledges that climate change is a real thing. He might also pressure Bolsonaro to stop clear-cutting the Amazon. But the Paris agreement is at best a band-aid on a gushing bullet wound, and Biden’s clean energy plan is pablum, promising that the US will be a net zero carbon emitter only long after Biden’s administration has come and gone. Candidate Biden’s repeated insistence that he will not take serious action to end fracking makes it clear that he either doesn’t grasp the seriousness of the threat or isn’t prepared to do what is needed to counter it. And his rhetoric around China (we’ll get to that) makes it hard to envision the kind of US-Chinese cooperation that will be required to truly mitigate the effects of climate change.
Overall Biden’s climate policy is better than Trump’s, but it is nowhere near adequate and it could be argued that the difference between “bad” and “not good enough” on this issue is irrelevant because we’re broiling the planet either way.