World roundup: November 21-22 2020

Stories from Iran, Ethiopia, Guatemala, and more

Nov 23, 2020

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First of all let me offer a belated Happy Diwali to those who were celebrating. Every day for the past week I’ve meant to mention the holiday and every day I’ve managed not to do it, so my apologies.

Second, as you may know Central America has been battered by hurricanes Eta and Iota over the past couple of weeks. If you can, please consider donating to GlobalGiving’s Hurricane Iota Relief Fund. GlobalGiving is a very well regarded charity (four stars on Charity Navigator) and the people in the region certainly need all the help they can get right now.

THESE DAYS IN HISTORY

November 20, 1845: A joint British-French fleet defeats the Argentine Confederation’s navy on the Paraná River at the Battle of Vuelta de Obligado. Despite winning the battle, the Europeans found themselves unable to navigate upriver to impose an economic settlement on the protectionist Argentine government of Juan Manuel de Rosas, and after a lengthy blockade (that helped secure the Colorados’ victory in the Uruguayan Civil War, so it wasn’t a total bust) both the UK and France signed treaties upholding Argentine sovereignty over its own rivers.

November 20, 1979: Attackers seize the Grand Mosque in Mecca.

November 21, 1386: The Turco-Mongolian warlord Timur sacks Tbilisi and carries off Georgian King Bagrat V, who manages to save his own life by agreeing to convert to Islam only to turn on Timur at the earliest possible opportunity. This was the first of a whopping eight times Timur invaded Georgia between 1386 and 1403. Each of his invasions was successful from a military and plunder standpoint but destructive from the Georgians’ standpoint, and yet remarkably the kingdom was able to survive.

November 21, 1894: The First Sino-Japanese War’s Battle of Lüshunkou, also known as the Battle of Port Arthur, ends with a decisive Imperial Japanese victory. The capture of Lüshunkou was a major achievement for the Japanese, but the battle may be better remembered for what followed, the alleged “Port Arthur Massacre.” Over the following 2-3 days, possibly in retaliation for earlier atrocities committed by Chinese soldiers, Japanese forces are said to have killed as many as 60,000 people in the city (that’s the high end of a range of estimates). Western reporting about Port Arthur varied widely at the time, with some accounts denying there had been any massacre at all, and even today the historicity of this event is debated.

November 22, 1943: Amid considerable international pressure, especially from the United Kingdom, the French government acknowledges Lebanon’s independence. Annually commemorated as Lebanese Independence Day.

November 22, 1963: US President John F. Kennedy is assassinated, either by Lee Harvey Oswald or [REDACTED]. Oswald would be arrested and then was himself killed while in police custody on November 24, either by Jack Ruby or [REDACTED].

INTERNATIONAL

Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for November 22:

58,970,525 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (16,817,766 active, +489,012 since yesterday)
1,393,227 reported fatalities (+7409 since yesterday)

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

7225 confirmed coronavirus cases (+71)
376 reported fatalities (+4)

At least 14 pro-government, Iranian-linked militia fighters were killed in airstrikes in Deir Ezzor province late Saturday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The Israeli military was likely responsible. Eight of the fighters were Iraqi and the other six Afghan.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Sunday promoted deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad to foreign minister. Mekdad replaces Walid Muallem, who had been foreign minister from 2006 until his death last Monday. Mekdad had been Muallem’s deputy since 2006 and had taken on more responsibilities in recent years as Muallem’s health deteriorated. Assad also promoted his UN ambassador, Bashar Jaafari, who will now serve as Mekdad’s deputy.

IRAQ

535,321 confirmed cases (+1766)
11,958 reported fatalities (+33)

Islamic State fighters killed six Iraqi security personnel (two police and four Popular Mobilization militia fighters) and three civilians in a two-stage ambush near the city of Tikrit on Saturday. IS initially detonated a roadside bomb, then its gunmen attacked police and paramilitary units that responded to the blast.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

328,918 confirmed cases (+521) in Israel, 71,644 confirmed cases (+1390) in Palestine
2799 reported fatalities (+42) in Israel, 636 reported fatalities (+16) in Palestine

The Israeli military bombed Gaza early Sunday in response to a rocket fired out of the enclave late on Saturday. Israeli officials say the rocket damaged a factory in Ashkelon, and their retaliation struck several targets linked to Hamas, but there were no reports of any casualties in the exchange. It’s unclear who fired the rocket, but as always the Israeli government considers Hamas, as the governing party in Gaza, responsible for any such incident.

IRAN

854,361 confirmed cases (+13,053)
44,802 reported fatalities (+475)

At Just Security, Laura Rozen says that Joe Biden is likely to stick to his pledge to resume US participation in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal unconditionally, despite pressure from several corners in Washington to hold out for extra concessions from the Iranian government:

“If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations,” then-candidate Biden wrote in September. “With our allies, we will work to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal’s provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern.”
A former Obama administration official familiar with Biden’s views, speaking not for attribution, said that remains Biden’s position, which has been consistent.
“Biden has been clear and consistent about his Iran policy,” the former Obama administration official said. “If Iran moves back into compliance with its nuclear obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would re-enter the deal.”
“Biden would then use America’s restored credibility to work alongside our closest allies in Europe and others to engage Iran in follow-on diplomacy aimed at extending and strengthening the provisions of the JCPOA and addressing Iran’s other destabilizing behavior in the region,” the former official said.

The only part of this I would contest is the notion that returning to the agreement would instantly give the US “restored credibility.” Whatever credibility the US had was shot when the Trump administration tried to scrap the agreement in 2018 and it’s not just magically going to come back now that the precedent has been set and given all the hostility that’s built up since then. Returning immediately to the agreement, with no strings attached, is the only way to build back enough credibility to reopen diplomacy with Iran and regain some level of cohesion with France, Germany, and the UK. But it is by no means going to completely fix what’s been broken.

ASIA

KYRGYZSTAN

69,581 confirmed cases (+432)
1231 reported fatalities (+4)

Hundreds of people protested in Bishkek on Sunday against proposed changes to the Kyrgyz constitution that would significantly empower the presidency at the expense of parliament. The changes are being pushed by Sadyr Japarov, who emerged from last month’s unrest as the dominant political figure in Kyrgyzstan and who is favored to win January’s presidential election. He’s naturally keen to accrue more power and has been threatening to “unmask” whoever is behind the opposition movement.

AFGHANISTAN

44,706 confirmed cases (+203)
1687 reported fatalities (+12)

The Islamic State’s Khorasan province claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on Kabul on Saturday that killed at least eight people. The attack may have been intended for Kabul’s Green Zone, where international/diplomatic offices are located. At least one rocket did reportedly strike close to the Iranian embassy, though there were no reports of casualties or damage in that facility.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Qatar on Saturday for meetings with Afghan and Taliban negotiating teams. Pompeo’s visit of course comes a few days after the Trump administration announced it was planning to cut the US presence in Afghanistan to around 2500 troops and amid an Afghan peace process that appears to be stalled out over procedural issues. Afghanistan’s head negotiator, Abdullah Abdullah, told AFP on Saturday that the two sides are “very close” to resolving their disagreements and moving on to substantive talks. He also, however, suggested to the AP that the Afghan government would prefer the US not shrink its troop presence just yet. If the Biden administration decides to reverse Trump’s withdrawal it will presumably use comments like this as justification.

PAKISTAN

374,173 confirmed cases (+2665)
7662 reported fatalities (+59)

Pakistani authorities reported Sunday that one Pakistani soldier and four Pakistani Taliban militants were killed in a gun battle near the Afghan border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Along Pakistan’s other troubled border, meanwhile, one child was killed and ten people wounded by shelling from Indian forces across Kashmir’s Line of Control. Indian officials haven’t commented on the incident.

AFRICA

SUDAN

16,052 confirmed cases (+213)
1197 reported fatalities (+4)

Sudan’s transitional government has decided to postpone the formation of its transitional legislature until next month at the earliest. The parliament was supposed to be formed this month, but apparently there’s still some disagreement over how many seats to give the Sudan Revolutionary Front rebel umbrella group, which signed a peace deal with the government back in August.

ALGERIA

74,862 confirmed cases (+1088)
2272 reported fatalities (+17)

According to the SITE Group, which monitors jihadist groups and their online traffic, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has finally acknowledged the death of former leader Abdelmalek Droukdel, who was killed by French forces in northeastern Mali back in June. To the extent it still matters, and I’m not sure it does, Droukdel’s replacement is Abu Ubaydah Yusuf al-Annabi, who has been serving as the chair of AQIM’s “council of notables” (basically an executive committee as far as I can tell).

NIGERIA

66,383 confirmed cases (+155)
1167 reported fatalities (+1)

A gang of motorcycle-riding “bandits” killed at least five people and abducted at least 18 in an attack on a mosque in northwestern Nigeria's Zamfara state on Sunday. It’s the latest in an escalating number of such “bandit” attacks in northwestern Nigeria. Authorities attribute these incidents to non-ideological criminal gangs, even though they don’t really seem to know enough about these groups to really draw that conclusion. Meanwhile, a group of Islamic State West Africa Province fighters attacked a military convoy in Borno state, in northeastern Nigeria, on Saturday. They killed at least seven soldiers and one pro-government militia fighter.

CAMEROON

23,528 confirmed cases (+0)
435 reported fatalities (+0)

Researchers Chris Roberts, from the University of Calgary, and Billy Burton, from the Cameroon Anglophone Crisis Database of Atrocities, accuse the Cameroonian government of effectively defrauding the international community:

At the U.N. General Assembly in September, Cameroonian Foreign Minister Lejeune Mbella Mbella asked for increased international cooperation in support of the country’s ongoing struggle against “terrorism.” His belabored attention to “multilateralism,” however, belied Cameroon’s usual intemperate reaction to any international comment about its internal politics, economic policies, or conduct of its military operations.
Cameroon does all it can to reduce the international consequences of its failed militarization strategy against legitimate grievances in its Anglophone regions. Rather than seeking peace through political compromise and better governance, the regime confuses the international community by describing the crisis as a two-front war against “terrorists” and “criminals.”
After two years of painstaking research using GIS tools and open-source data analysis, we have drawn the conclusion that Cameroon’s military operations against Anglophones in the Southwest and Northwest regions have noticeably weakened Cameroon’s efforts against Boko Haram and ISWAP, leading to broader regional insecurity.

The problem is that the anglophone crisis is a purely Cameroonian affair, while the Boko Haram/ISWAP crisis affects all the other countries in the Lake Chad region—Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. Cameroon is appealing for help to deal with the regional problem and then diverting that help to deal with its internal problem.

ETHIOPIA

105,785 confirmed cases (+433)
1647 reported fatalities (+11)

In a Twitter message on Sunday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave the Tigray People’s Liberation Front 72 hours to surrender before he orders his military to move against the Tigray regional capital, Mekelle. Probably not good! Also I feel like Twitter is not really the appropriate medium for ultimatums, but what do I know? Abiy has rejected African Union efforts to mediate the conflict (it’s a civil war, but Abiy insists on calling it a “law enforcement operation”), and on Saturday his army reportedly captured (or “liberated” depending on your perspective) the second most populated city in Tigray, Adigrat. As always, claims like this have to come with the caveat that it’s nearly impossible to know for sure what’s happening in Tigray because the region is under a media and communications blackout. There are similarly unconfirmable reports that suggest the Ethiopian military isn’t so much conquering these places as the TPLF is giving ground and engaging in a more guerrilla-style campaign, where cities and territory aren’t its main considerations.

The Ethiopian military says its plan is to surround Mekelle, which is home to around 500,000 people though it’s unclear how this war has affected that number, and pound it with tanks, artillery, and airstrikes until the TPLF surrenders. Needless to say that approach could result in a substantial number of casualties. Ethiopian authorities have telegraphed their plan in order to scare the civilian population in Mekelle into rising up against the TPLF or, failing that, to encourage them to flee the city ahead of the coming onslaught. However, Tigrayan regional president and TPLF boss Debretsion Gebremichael has dismissed the threat, saying that the Ethiopian military isn’t in position to encircle Mekelle and in particular has struggled to advance on the city from the south. Regardless, if the TPLF really has gone to ground, so to speak, that portends a lengthy conflict no matter what happens in, or to, Mekelle.

In possibly unrelated news, the Sudanese government boycotted another round of three-way negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Saturday. Ostensibly Sudanese officials pulled out of the talks over their frustration at their lack of progress and to emphasize their demand for a greater African Union mediation presence. But the reason I said “possibly unrelated” is because there’s a chance that what’s really bugging Khartoum is the fact that the Tigray conflict has sent over 35,000 refugees into Sudan. Whatever their reasons, Sudan has to this point been less hostile toward the GERD project than has Egypt, partly because Sudan stands to benefit from the dam’s electricity production while Egypt only stands to potentially lose water levels on the Nile. If Sudan’s position is moving closer to Egypt’s that could raise tensions around these talks.

EUROPE

BELARUS

123,999 confirmed cases (+1564)
1096 reported fatalities (+7)

Thousands of people turned out for weekly protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday, and as has become the pattern they were met with a large police response in which hundreds of demonstrators were arrested. Protesters in Minsk apparently tried to thwart the authorities by meeting in several smaller protest cells, but police met them when they attempted to congregate downtown.

FRANCE

2,140,208 confirmed cases (+13,157)
48,732 reported fatalities (+214)

Thousands of people protested across France on Saturday to register their disapproval of a proposed law that would make it illegal under some circumstances to film police officers. The measure criminalizes spreading images of police officers with intent to harm and is ostensibly meant to protect them from reprisals and/or harassment. But the critics argue the bill would undermine press freedom and help shield police officers from allegations of brutality and other sorts of misconduct.

AMERICAS

BRAZIL

6,071,401 confirmed cases (+18,615)
169,197 reported fatalities (+181)

Private security guards at a supermarket in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state beat a Black man to death on Thursday. Al Jazeera reports on the widespread anti-racism protests the killing has sparked:

GUATEMALA

118,629 confirmed cases (+212)
4076 reported fatalities (+2)

So anyway I wonder how things are going in Guatema-

Sandra Cuffe @Sandra_Cuffe

#GUATEMALA'S CONGRESS IS LITERALLY ON FIRE RIGHT NOW:

Ah, well, I’m sure it’s fine.

It seems that, using the pandemic and the aforementioned hurricanes as cover to some extent, the Guatemalan government this week passed a budget that, among other things, significantly cut education and healthcare funding, including pandemic funds, and even cut funding to food aid programs while appropriating extra money to pay for legislators’ meals. The food aid cuts were restored, but the brazenness of the budget overall seems to have been the last straw for a Guatemalan public that’s been harboring some negative feelings about its government regarding austerity and corruption. Thousands gathered in Guatemala City on Saturday to express those negative feelings and things clearly escalated from there.

The protesters are calling on President Alejandro Giammattei—who was elected last year on an anti-corruption platform but apparently forgot about the “anti” part—to resign, but he’s rejecting those calls and condemned Saturday’s violence. Let’s see if that pays off for him. Giammattei’s vice president, Guillermo Castillo, suggested on Friday that they should both resign (they don’t get along with one another, apparently) to appease the angry public, but I guess Giammattei turned him down.

MEXICO

1,032,688 confirmed cases (+6719)
101,373 reported fatalities (+550)

Roughly six months ahead of Mexico’s midterm elections, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s approval rating has risen to 64 percent in a new Buendia & Laredo poll, higher than it’s been since last November. Obviously six months is a fairly long time for public opinion to change, but the survey suggests AMLO’s National Regeneration Movement party should be able to retain its majority in Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies.

UNITED STATES

12,588,661 confirmed cases (+136,627)
262,696 reported fatalities (+866)

Finally, there are lots of nuggets to digest this evening:

At the (virtual) G-20 summit on Sunday, Donald Trump reportedly had a tantrum over the Paris climate agreement, which President-elect Joe Biden is expected to rejoin. In his remarks, Trump whined that the accord was “not designed to save the environment. It was designed to kill the American economy.” He’s half right. The Paris accord was not designed to save the environment. It’s nowhere near that ambitious. It was designed to make it look like world leaders are trying to save the environment.
The Trump administration on Sunday completed the US withdrawal from the 2002 Open Skies Treaty, which has been an important tool for managing tensions between the world’s major military powers—or between the US and Russia, to be more specific—by allowing member states to conduct reconnaissance flights over other member states’ territory just to make sure nobody was secretly massing troops or anything. The administration never met an arms control treaty (which Open Skies was, in effect) it didn’t want to scuttle, and now it’s racing to get rid of the two OC-135B planes the US used for its Open Skies overflights. This is undoubtedly in order to make it harder for Biden to rejoin this treaty, though of course the administration can’t come right out and admit that.
Speaking of Biden, he’s reportedly settled on his longtime foreign policy adviser, Antony Blinken, to be secretary of state in the new administration. This is not a surprise, as Blinken has been with Biden for many years, was deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017, and will likely have a relatively easy confirmation. That does not make it a good pick. The fact that Blinken has been Biden’s top foreign policy adviser since the early 2000s, a period in which Biden has been a leading voice for the Democratic Party’s liberal interventionist consensus, does not speak highly of him. Nor does the fact that he was apparently the mastermind (I use that term loosely) of Biden’s plan to partition Iraq into three countries, one of the few ideas floated during the 2000s that would have made the Iraq War worse than it actually was. Blinken was also reportedly a key figure in crafting the Obama administration’s Syria policy, which was so incoherent that calling it a “policy” is an insult to language, and once told an audience at the Brookings Institution that it was appropriate to impose sanctions to punish the Russian people for the crime of electing Vladimir Putin. He helped sell the Obama administration’s decision to enable Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen, which has created the worst humanitarian disaster in the world. Oh, and he’s spent the last several years running a “strategic consultancy,” which is lobbying for people who plan to work in government again and don’t want to be disqualified by having the word “lobbyist” appended to their resume. His partner in that consultancy, by the by, was former undersecretary of defense Michèle Flournoy, widely expected to become Biden’s secretary of defense. So they can still be buddies!