World roundup: November 15-16 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Sudan, Chile, and elsewhere
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Apologies, but it has been a very long day and I’m still not operating at 100 percent so I am going to need to skip tonight’s usual voiceover. As always, those who need it can find a text-to-voice option via the Substack app.
TODAY IN HISTORY
November 15, 1884: The Berlin Conference begins, with the goal of regulating European colonization of Africa. Its declaration obliged European powers to establish political control over their spheres of influence in Africa in order to claim possession of them. This is sometimes identified as the beginning of the “Scramble for Africa,” though in actuality African colonization was already well underway and only sped up in the wake of the conference.
November 15, 1889: A republican military coup ousts Brazilian Emperor Pedro II, ending the Brazilian monarchy.
November 15, 1983: The “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” declares its independence, some eight years after the “Turkish Federated State of Cyprus” broke away from the Cypriot government after a pro-Greek military coup and the invasion of northern Cyprus by Turkish forces. Turkey is the only country that has diplomatically recognized the separatist state.
November 16, 1532: Spanish forces under Francisco Pizarro ambush and capture the Incan emperor Atahualpa at the Battle of Cajamarca. Atahualpa’s captivity and eventual execution (the following August) were the first steps in the Spaniards’ conquest of the Incan Empire.
November 16, 1914: The Austro-Hungarian and Serbian armies open one of World War I’s first major engagements, the Battle of Kolubara. Over the course of the next two weeks the Austro-Hungarians would drive the Serbs back, eventually forcing them to evacuate Belgrade. However, the Serbian army regrouped and counterattacked against a by-then overextended Austro-Hungarian force, and by mid-December they had retaken Belgrade and forced the surviving Austro-Hungarians out of Serbia altogether. The battle resulted in staggering casualties on both sides but thwarted the Austro-Hungarian military’s 1914 Serbian campaign. The Central Powers would invade Serbia again the following year with much different results.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least one person in another drone strike on southern Lebanon on Sunday night, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. There’s been no comment from the Israeli side as yet but Lebanese media is describing the deceased as a “[public] school principal” so we’ll see how the IDF tries to connect him to Hezbollah.
Earlier in the day Israeli soldiers fired on a unit of United Nations peacekeepers in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border. There were no casualties as far as I know. Israeli officials later claimed that they misidentified the peacekeepers as “suspects” and fired “warning shots” in their direction, blaming the oopsie on “poor weather conditions.” The shooting stopped after UN personnel contacted the IDF.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
There are several items of note:
The IDF killed at least three people in multiple airstrikes on Gaza on Sunday, as well as one person overnight near the West Bank city of Nablus and a 15 year old in that territory’s Farʿa refugee camp.
The Guardian reported on Friday that the US military “is planning for the long-term division of Gaza” into “green” and “red” zones. The “green zone” would be situated on the Israeli side of the “yellow line” and it’s “green” because this is where reconstruction would be allowed to proceed. The “red zone” would remain in ruins indefinitely. Interestingly this report also says that the international security force envisioned under Donald Trump’s ceasefire framework would initially deploy into the “green zone,” which suggests that the intention is really to just leave the “red zone” a complete wasteland. As reconstruction proceeds in the “green zone,” Palestinians would in theory be invited to relocate there from the “red zone” which would somehow disempower Hamas and eventually lead to the reunification of the territory and its full reconstruction. Or, you know, not. I’m not sure anybody involved in this process actually cares if it’s ever completed.
The South African government says it is investigating the circumstances around a flight that landed on Thursday at Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport carrying 153 Palestinians from Gaza. None had proper travel documentation, nor did they seem to know how they came to be in South Africa or how long they were planning to stay. Al Jazeera interviewed one of the people on that flight who described an organization called “Al-Majd Europe” that arranged the evacuation via Ramon Airport in the southern Israeli city of Eilat. The flight initially went to Kenya before continuing on to South Africa. The organization charged people between $1500 and $5000 to get them out of Gaza and seemed to be working in collaboration with Israeli authorities. As often as Israeli officials have talked about “voluntarily” depopulating Gaza it would not be at all surprising if they are trying to accomplish that aim—otherwise known as ethnic cleansing—through this somewhat clandestine, piecemeal process.
The New York Times reported on Friday that Trump administration envoy Steven Witkoff is arranging a meeting with senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya, though no date for such an encounter has yet been set. Witkoff and Hayya have met before so this would not be unprecedented but nevertheless it seems noteworthy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his blanket opposition to a Palestinian state on Sunday. This is also not unprecedented but it comes as the US is circulating a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council that does make mention of a path to Palestinian statehood. It’s unclear how the administration expects such a path to emerge when the Israeli government is fully opposed to it and US policy grants Israel a veto over statehood.
SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House on Tuesday will officially be characterized as a “working visit,” but from the way the AP is describing the agenda it sounds like it will be virtually indistinguishable from the swankier “state visit.” That agenda includes a full “arrival ceremony” as well as a dinner on Tuesday evening. MBS is not technically a “head of state” so the administration can fall back on that to explain why it hasn’t called this trip what it is. But this also avoids the optics of giving a state visit to a guy who may still be best known to many Americans as the guy who once ordered (allegedly, of course) the murder and dismemberment of a journalist he didn’t like.
Among the things Trump and MBS will be discussing is the potential sale of F-35 aircraft to Saudi Arabia, which is dicey both because of negativity toward the Saudis in the US Congress and because Israel is currently the only Middle Eastern country operating F-35s and US policy is to maintain Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the region. However, Netanyahu has apparently indicated that he’d comfortable with the Saudis buying F-35s if in return they agree to normalize relations with Israel. Saudi policy is that the kingdom will not normalize relations with Israel in the absence of a Palestinian state, and while MBS has gutted that standard and is only demanding a meaningless “path” to statehood in return for normalization, Netanyahu and company won’t even budge on that point (see above). So it will be interesting to see whether/how Trump tries to bridge what seems like an unbridgeable gap.
IRAN
The Iranian government confirmed on Saturday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps did seize a tanker carrying petrochemical products in the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier. The IRGC issued a statement claiming that “the tanker was in violation for carrying unauthorized cargo,” without offering any further explanation.
Elsewhere, the Iranian government is seeding clouds in an attempt to mitigate a drought that has the country’s two largest cities running out of water. Parts of northern Iran did see a bit of rainfall over the weekend.
ASIA
CHINA
The Chinese Coast Guard sailed a patrol through the Senkaku Islands (as they’re known in Japan) in the East China Sea over the weekend, highlighting one of the region’s many maritime disputes. The Senkakus are also claimed by China (which called them the Diaoyu Islands) and Taiwan (which calls them the Diaoyutai Islands), though they are administered by Japan. These sorts of incidents are much less frequent than, say, Chinese patrols in disputed parts of the South China Sea, but this incident should probably be viewed in light of recent tensions in the Chinese-Japanese relationship.
SOUTH KOREA
The US and South Korean governments have reached agreement on a proposal to manufacture nuclear-powered attack submarines for the South Korean military at a shipyard in Philadelphia. Seoul wants nuclear-powered submarines to stay at some degree of military parity with North Korea, which is also known to be developing its own nuclear subs and is probably getting some degree of Russian assistance. Nuclear subs offer major advantages in speed and range compared with the diesel powered submarines that South Korea currently operates, though their practical utility in a conflict with North Korea could be questionable. But at the very least, demonstrating parity with North Korea is politically advantageous for any given South Korean government.
For the US, outfitting another Asia-Pacific ally with advanced submarines (a la the AUKUS arrangement with Australia) sends a message to China and the manufacturing process could draw investment to the US shipbuilding industry, which has become one of Donald Trump’s pet projects.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military has reportedly recaptured two localities in Sudan’s embattled North Kordofan state that had recently fallen into the hands of Rapid Support Forces militants. North Kordofan has become the new epicenter in this war after the RSF’s capture of the city of Al-Fashir and its consolidation of most of the Darfur region. On that subject, satellite analysis by Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Lab continues to point toward a horrific outcome in Al-Fashir, with new images appearing to show more mass graves and burned bodies with some 150,000 people still missing and “no activity in markets or water points” in the city.
NIGERIA
Islamic State West Africa Province fighters ambushed a security patrol in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Friday, killing at least two soldiers and two militia auxiliaries. A UN report on the situation said that several soldiers were still missing but some of them, including the patrol’s commander, have since begun to turn up.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Jihadists from the Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces group attacked a hospital in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province on Friday, killing at least 17 people. This attack appears to have been part of a wider operation targeting multiple villages so the full death toll could be considerably higher.
Meanwhile, representatives of the Congolese government and the M23 militant group signed a new peace “framework” on Saturday after another round of negotiations in Qatar. It’s unclear what differentiates this from the framework deal they reached back in July beyond the fact that the earlier deal seemed to have collapsed and this one hasn’t collapsed yet because it’s only about one day old. The new framework apparently outlines eight steps that need to be taken to reach a full peace deal, only two of which—a prisoner release and the creation of a ceasefire monitoring group—have been ironed out in any detail to date.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The Russian military announced the capture of two more villages in southeastern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast on Sunday. Heavy fighting is continuing in and around the cities of Kupiansk and Pokrovsk but the Zaporizhzhia front has been the most active in terms of Russian advances in recent days.
BELGIUM
The European Union’s proposal to use frozen Russian assets to secure a substantial loan for Ukraine has run into stiff resistance from the Belgian government:
Ukraine is on course to run out of cash in the spring, EU officials say, and they see their loan proposal as the best option for allowing Kyiv to continue buying weapons. The plan would lend as much as 183 billion euros (about $213 billion) to Ukraine, backed by Russian financial assets that are immobilized in Belgium.
Belgian officials fear that if the plan hits political or legal trouble, it could leave the country exposed to liabilities that potentially amount to the equivalent of one-third of its national economic output. Politics in Belgium, which hosts the EU’s institutions, risks adding to the problem. The governing coalition faces a budget crisis, raising the stakes for Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever to show he is protecting Belgian interests.
De Wever on Friday met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top official. Both sides want a deal struck at a summit late next month, before Kyiv’s cash position deteriorates much further.
The dispute boils down to conflicting assessments of legal risk to the reparations loan. EU officials accept that risks exist but think they are low and containable. Belgian officials see substantial risk to the plan.
Two-thirds of the $300 billion in Russian assets currently frozen in EU states is parked in a Belgian firm called Euroclear. The fear is that if those assets ever have to be returned to Russia (under a hypothetical peace deal, for example), Euroclear could collapse and take the Belgian economy with it. De Wever wants guarantees from the EU, and potentially from outside partners including the US and UK, that Euroclear would be bailed out in this scenario.
AMERICAS
CHILE
As expected, the first round of Chile’s presidential election has left communist Jeannette Jara and right winger José Antonio Kast as the top two finishers, meaning that they will meet in a runoff on December 14. Although Jara “won” the first round, taking 26 percent to Kast’s 24 percent, the overall right-wing vote amounted to around 54 percent which leaves Kast as the favorite in the head-to-head contest. The other conservative candidates are already lining up to endorse him.
ECUADOR
Voters in Ecuador headed to the polls for a referendum on President Daniel Noboa’s plan to open the country up to foreign (i.e., US) military bases. Vote counting is still underway but with about 75 percent of the tally in they had handed Noboa a decisive defeat, with about 60 percent rejecting the measure. A Noboa-backed proposal to rewrite the Ecuadorian constitution also appeared to be on the road to defeat.
VENEZUELA
Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday evening that “we may be having some discussions with [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro and we’ll see how that turns out.” This latest twist comes as the US Navy confirmed on Sunday that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier has arrived in the Caribbean and as Trump has reportedly been hemming and hawing over the prospect of military action against Venezuela. Trump reportedly put the kibosh on dialogue with Maduro last month, when it seemed he’d chosen conflict over communication.
COLOMBIA
The Colombian government’s ombudsman’s office reported on Saturday that the country’s military had killed seven minors in a recent airstrike targeting an armed group in the country’s Amazon region. This is presumably referring to the strike that killed at least 19 people and targeted elements of the ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) “Central General Staff” faction in Colombia’s Guaviare department on Monday. The Colombian military also says it killed at least nine people in an airstrike in Arauca department on Friday. Airstrikes are once again emerging as a preferred tactic by the Colombian military after President Gustavo Petro had reduced their frequency for most of his term.
UNITED STATES
The US military blew up another alleged drug boat in the eastern Pacific on Saturday, killing at least three people. That makes 21 boats and over 80 murders since this campaign began a bit over two months ago. The Trump administration is also planning to designate the “Cartel de los Soles,” an alleged cartel that it claims is being run by Nicolás Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization. I didn’t mention this under the Venezuelan section above because it made more sense to me to slot it here, seeing as how, as Seth Hettena writes, the “Cartel de los Soles” is essentially a creation of the US Central Intelligence Agency:
The name Cartel de los Soles originated in 1993 when Brigadier General Ramon Guillen Davila and his successor were first accused of trafficking, according to InSight Crime, a think tank that studies organized crime. The “suns” referred to the insignia the Venezuelan generals wore on their epaulettes.
Guillen, the anti-drug chief of the Guardia Nacional (National Guard), was once one of the CIA’s most trusted partners in the region. The agency built and financed a special intelligence unit within the National Guard, headed by Guillen. But Venezuela’s top drug warrior was also an alleged cocaine smuggler.
The CIA operation, approved under President Ronald Reagan, was designed to gather intelligence on Colombian cartels by inserting agents into the smuggling pipeline. In 1986, Reagan had declared global drug trafficking a threat to U.S. national security and directed the CIA to target international traffickers with suspected links to terrorist or insurgent groups. (Trump has blurred the distinction between terrorists and drug smugglers to justify lethal strikes that have killed 80 people aboard suspected drug-smuggling vessels.)
A civilian informant working with Guillen, Adolfo Romero Gomez, served as a key middleman between Colombian suppliers and traffickers in South Florida. Through Guillen, Romero kept both the CIA and the DEA informed about so-called “controlled deliveries” of cocaine into Miami—shipments allowed to move under surveillance in hopes of snaring major players and seizing the drugs.
When it turned out that these guys were using those “controlled deliveries” as cover for their own cocaine smuggling operation the CIA insisted that it had been hoodwinked, but several people at the DEA don’t seem to have found the agency’s denials terribly convincing. The “cartel” is basically shorthand for corruption within the Venezuelan military, but there is no evidence (and never has been any) that it is a coherent organization, let alone one with the Venezuelan president in charge.