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TODAY IN HISTORY
May 6, 1527: A group of around 20,000 Habsburg soldiers and mercenaries, who were mutinying over not being paid, sack the city of Rome and besiege Pope Clement VII in the Castel Sant’Angelo. The city was heavily looted, and Clement was only released after agreeing to pay a ransom. Some art historians consider the sack and the devastation it entailed to mark the end of the Italian High Renaissance. It definitely marked a shift in the Catholic world. Clement and the papacy were badly weakened, and although Habsburg Emperor Charles V may have been a little embarrassed about how it happened he was happy to take advantage, and so power shifted away from the popes and toward the emperors. Among other things this meant that the Church did not pursue the Crusade against Protestantism that Clement had favored, which helped to solidify the Reformation.
May 6, 1954: British runner Roger Bannister becomes the first person to verifiably run a mile in under four minutes. That’s cool. I run a three minute mile myself, but four is really nice. Bannister’s time of 3:59.4 obviously stood as the world record, but only for about six weeks before it was broken on June 21 by Australian runner John Landy’s 3:58 mile.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Druze residents of the Damascus suburb of Jaramana are reportedly refusing to hand their small arms over to the Syrian government amid negotiations around settling last week’s violence. It seems for some odd reason that they don’t trust the same Syrian security forces who attacked them last week and participated in massacring hundreds of Alawites in Syria’s northwestern coastal regions back in March to provide them with adequate protection. They’re demanding guarantees that those security forces and their jihadist fellow travelers won’t unleash another round of violence against them before they discuss disarmament. Syrian authorities and Druze community leaders have reached an agreement in principle that could incorporate Druze militia fighters into the state security forces, but it sounds like implementation is going to be difficult.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military’s (IDF) plan to “expand” its operations in Gaza has generated a fair amount of consternation among residents of the territory, who understandably wonder how much more damage the Israelis could possibly do. The Israeli threat to take their campaign to the next level in ten days (nine now) could be less a firm commitment to act than a ploy to increase the pressure on Hamas to submit to a new partial ceasefire. If so, it doesn’t seem to be working—Hamas politburo member Basem Naim rejected new talks on Tuesday, telling AFP that “there is no sense in engaging in talks or considering new ceasefire proposals as long as the hunger war and extermination war continue in the Gaza Strip.”
The Trump administration apparently isn’t giving up, though, and has reportedly put forward another one of those ceasefire proposals. It’s hoping to freeze the situation in Gaza and resume shipments of humanitarian aid into the territory ahead of Donald Trump’s trip to the Persian Gulf next week, which would be less awkward for him if Gaza were not such an immediate concern. Once he’s out of the region, presumably, the Israelis’ ethnic cleansing campaign can continue as before.
Elsewhere, the Trump administration is closing the US State Department’s Office of Palestinian Affairs and merging it into the US embassy in Jerusalem. This will drastically limit if not effectively shut down consular services to Palestinians and minimize any sort of Palestinian viewpoint across the department. The shutdown was predictable, given that the first Trump administration did effectively the same thing when it moved the embassy to Jerusalem in 2018. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce insisted on Tuesday that this action does not change the administration’s “commitment to outreach” to the Palestinians, which is true insofar as it has no such commitment and never did.
YEMEN
The Omani government announced on Tuesday that it has brokered a ceasefire of sorts between the United States and Yemen’s Houthi movement. The parameters seem pretty basic—the Houthis have apparently agreed to stop attacking Red Sea commercial shipping and US warships in the region, and in return the US has agreed to stop attacking northern Yemen. The Omani announcement confirmed a comment that Donald Trump blurted out during his White House meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney earlier in the day, in which he claimed that the Houthis had “capitulated.”
That’s not exactly how I’d characterize it, given that there’s nothing in the agreement as announced that says the Houthis will stop their direct attacks on Israel and indeed the group subsequently insisted that those attacks will continue. Israeli officials seemed unaware of the agreement and it may be that Trump is taking this opportunity to bail out of a policy that hasn’t achieved anything. It may also be that this is going to be a short-term pause, again with Trump’s forthcoming regional trip in mind.
Speaking of those Houthi attacks on Israel, the IDF retaliated a second time for the most recent one on Tuesday with airstrikes targeting the city of Sanaa and its airport. Tuesday’s strikes killed at least three people and wounded 35 others according to Houthi-aligned media. The IDF is claiming that it “fully disabled” Sanaa’s airport, but there’s no confirmation of that. That facility is primarily used these days to bring in humanitarian aid so rendering it unusable will mostly harm northern Yemeni civilians.
IRAN
The apparent pause in US-Houthi hostilities may also help facilitate US-Iranian nuclear talks, which appear to be back on the agenda after a one-week pause. Iranian media reported on Tuesday that a two-day round of negotiations will be held in Oman either on Saturday and Sunday or Sunday and Monday—details are apparently still being ironed out. Lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff is also indicating that talks will resume this weekend.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
The Indian military struck at least six targets across Pakistan early Wednesday morning in its long-anticipated retaliation for last month’s terrorist attack in the Kashmiri town of Pahalgam, which the Indian government has blamed on its Pakistani counterpart even as Pakistani officials have denied involvement. Several of the strikes hit sites in Pakistani Kashmir but there were also reports of attacks in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Full details are unclear but Pakistani officials are saying that the strikes killed at least eight people and wounded another 35—those figures are likely to rise. They also characterized the targets as “civilian,” including “two mosques,” while an Indian government statement claimed that the strikes hit nine targets, all of which were “terrorist infrastructure…from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.” That statement characterized the strikes as “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature” and insisted that they had avoided any “Pakistani military facilities” and “demonstrated considerable restraint” on New Delhi’s part.
The Pakistani military promised retaliation and there were reports of heavy exchanges of fire across the Line of Control in Kashmir after the initial Indian attack. Indian officials are claiming that Pakistani artillery fire killed at least three civilians. In stressing that they had hit “terrorist” targets while avoiding “Pakistani” targets, Indian officials seemed to be offering the Pakistanis an opening to step back from the brink of what could be a much bigger war. But it’s far from clear whether the Pakistani government will do so. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif issued a statement saying that “Pakistan has every right to give a befitting reply to this act of war imposed by India and a befitting reply is being given,” which sounds tough but doesn’t preclude a limited retaliation followed by deescalation.
On Tuesday, a roadside bomb killed at least seven soldiers in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. Pakistani officials attributed the attack to the Baluchistan Liberation Army and India, though the BLA hasn’t claimed it as yet and the linkage between it and India is something Pakistan regularly asserts but that it hasn’t done much to prove.
INDIA
It may be irrelevant now that the shooting has started, but the Indian government is reportedly speeding up the construction of four new dams in the Kashmir region as it continues to explore its options after suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. New upstream projects like this will impact water levels downstream along the Indus River and its tributaries, which is a huge concern for the Pakistani government. Pakistani officials are already complaining about water diversion on the Chenab River and it sounds like India is just getting started.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s ruling junta announced another ceasefire to facilitate earthquake recovery on Tuesday, almost a week after it allowed its previous ceasefire to lapse. The new ceasefire is intended to run through at least the end of May. It should be noted that the junta never really abided by the initial ceasefire, though it insists that it was only trying “to protect the towns and people’s lives by using air strikes” in one of the more tortured justifications for bombing civilians that I’ve ever seen.
Elsewhere, the Trump administration on Tuesday blacklisted the Karen National Army rebel group along with its leader, Saw Chit Thu, and two of his sons. The US Treasury Department accused the group of “facilitating cyber scams that harm U.S. citizens, human trafficking, and cross-border smuggling.” The KNA denies any involvement in scam operations but Saw Chit Thu has already been blacklisted on similar allegations by the European Union and the United Kingdom.
CHINA
It seems that the US and Chinese governments will finally hold high-level trade talks this weekend. The Chinese Commerce Ministry and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have both confirmed the negotiations, which will take place in Switzerland and will be led by Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The Trump administration has imposed a whopping 145 percent tariff on most Chinese products, while China has retaliated with a 125 percent tariff on US goods, rates so high that they act as effective embargoes and have been biting into the economies of both countries.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Rapid Support Forces militants carried out drone strikes on Port Sudan for the third straight day on Tuesday, this time to much more substantial effect than their previous attacks. Tuesday’s strikes targeted Port Sudan’s airport, one of its fuel depot, and its main power station, leaving the city in a blackout. Explosions were also reported near Port Sudan’s Presidential Guest House, which has been serving as military commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s headquarters.
Elsewhere, Sudan’s military government cut off diplomatic relations with the UAE on Tuesday, calling it an “aggressor state” for supporting the RSF—the Emiratis’ “local agent” according to the military’s statement. It’s pretty well attested that the UAE has been arming and otherwise backing the RSF, though Emirati officials continue to deny those claims. The International Court of Justice tossed out a Sudanese suit over that support earlier this week.
NIGER
An apparent jihadist attack left at least ten soldiers dead on Sunday in southwestern Niger’s Dosso region. At least seven soldiers were wounded and “several” of the attackers were killed according to regional officials. There are also reports of an attack on the southeastern Nigerien city of Diffa by “elements of Boko Haram” overnight, but I’ve seen no details beyond that.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Reuters is reporting that the DRC government and M23 militants resumed their peace talks in Qatar over the weekend, though it’s unclear how much progress they’re expecting to make. Its sources are saying that the militants “sent a lower-level delegation” than the one that left Qatar when the talks broke up a couple of weeks ago, while the government delegation doesn’t seem to have been empowered to do very much at all. It may be that this process has been superseded by the US-brokered Rwanda-DRC negotiations that appear to be making progress.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A barrage of Ukrainian drones forced the temporary closure of several airports across Russia overnight, including four in the Moscow area. There are a handful of reports of minor injuries but no significant damage as far as I can tell. Moscow’s main airport, Sheremetyevo, was unaffected by the attack, which came just a couple of days before Russia will hold its Victory Day celebrations.
Later on Tuesday, the Russian and Ukrainian militaries exchanged 205 prisoners on either side. The UAE mediated the exchange, as it’s done several times over the course of this war.
GERMANY
As expected, the German parliament elected Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz as the country’s new chancellor on Tuesday. What was not expected was that it took two votes for Merz to be elected, making him the first chancellor in Germany’s postwar history not to win on the first ballot. So I guess he’ll always have that going for him, right?
Chancellor elections are conducted using a secret ballot so there’s no way to know who voted against him or why, but considering that he needed 316 votes for a majority and his CDU/CSU-Social Democratic Party coalition controls a collective 328 seats, one might have assumed that his election was a foregone conclusion. However, he only took 310 votes on that first ballot. The hastily organized second vote obviously went better for him but the whole episode starts Merz’s chancellorship off on about as rocky a footing as possible. It certainly doesn’t say anything positive about the cohesion of said coalition.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
A US National Intelligence Council memo contends that the Venezuelan government is not controlling the activities of the Tren de Aragua criminal gang—though the “permissive environment” it cultivates does allow the gang to operate. This is in direct contradiction to the Trump administration’s claim that Nicolás Maduro is using Tren de Aragua as the vanguard of some sort of “invasion” of the United States, a claim that lies at the foundation of the administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to justify trafficking Venezuelan migrants to prison in El Salvador. The memo concludes that there is no oversight relationship between Maduro and the gang based on “Venezuelan law enforcement actions demonstrating the regime treats TDA as a threat; an uneasy mix of cooperation and confrontation, rather than top down directives characterizing the regime’s ties to other armed groups; and the decentralized makeup of TDA that would make such a relationship logistically challenging.” It notes that the FBI in particular maintains that there is some sort of relationship between certain members of the government and the gang.
The Trump administration says it intends to investigate…the leak of the memo.
CANADA
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Washington on Tuesday for an uncomfortable meeting with the man who was primarily responsible for his recent election victory, Donald Trump. In fact even Trump himself seems to realize this, as he told reporters that “I think I was probably the greatest thing that happened to” Carney. The two men seemed mostly to talk past one another, with Carney stressing that Canada will never be the 51st US state (“never say never” was Trump’s response) and Trump refusing to consider any reduction in Canadian tariffs. Carney didn’t get sent to El Salvador so in that sense he should probably consider the trip a success.
UNITED STATES
Finally, writing for the Arab Center Annelle Sheline highlights the human rights implications of the US State Department’s new reorganization plan:
On April 22, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a proposed “comprehensive reorganization plan” of the US Department of State. The information that he posted online appeared to indicate that, under his plan, an entire branch of America’s diplomatic infrastructure would be cut: the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Civilian Harm, known as “J.” This was the bureau in which this author worked, covering human rights in the Middle East, before resigning in March 2024 over the Biden administration’s Gaza policy.
It appears that under Rubio’s proposal, some parts of the J bureau would be moved or their functions taken on by other offices. For example, the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) would be renamed the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Religious Freedom, reflecting the absorption of the previously independent Office of International Religious Freedom. The proposed new bureau, along with the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, would be overseen by the Office of the Coordination for Foreign Assistance and Humanitarian Affairs (F). This office is also charged with administering what little remains of programs administered by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) after the Trump administration cut 83 percent of its funding and fired nearly all of its staff. Similarly, the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL), previously under J, would be managed by the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security (T). It is not yet clear how the staff or funding for these bureaus would be affected by the reorganization.
Rubio’s plan envisions cutting other bureaus and offices, including the Bureau for Conflict and Stabilization Operations and the Office of Global Women’s Issues. The Office for Global Criminal Justice, which oversees the US response to war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, would no longer exist. Some parts of its mission would be carried out by the Office of the Legal Advisor, but it is so far unknown which aspects would survive, and what would be the Department’s relationship to institutions such as the International Criminal Court. Considering the Trump administration’s general disdain for international organizations, the dissolution of such relationships is likely intentional.