You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 5, 1260: Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, is crowned as the fifth Great Khan (khagan) of the Mongol Empire, a position he held until his death in 1294. Perhaps best known in the West as the Khan who received the Polo family at his court in the 1270s, Kublai is one of the most consequential figures in Mongolian and Eurasian history. On the one hand his accession sparked a civil war that contributed significantly to the ongoing disintegration of the Mongolian empire. On the other, Kublai conquered the Southern Song Dynasty, reunifying China for the first time since at least the Jin conquest of northern China in 1115 and arguably for the first time since the fall of the Tang Dynasty in 907. In doing so, Kublai reconfigured the Mongolian army on the fly to overcome massive logistical challenges inherent to operating in southern China. He then shifted the imperial court from the Mongolian heartland to the Chinese city of Khanbaliq (modern Beijing) and is therefore considered the founder of China’s Yuan Dynasty.
May 5, 1862: A Mexican republican army commanded by Ignacio Zaragoza defeats a larger French force under Charles de Lorencez at the Battle of Puebla. The unexpected Mexican victory delayed a French march on Mexico City, though with reinforcements the French army eventually did take the capital and installed a Habsburg noble as the short-lived Emperor Maximilian I of Mexico. The republican side ultimately defeated the French and overthrew Maximilian in 1867, and this early, morale-boosting victory was made a Mexican national holiday: Cinco de Mayo.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
The Turkish and Armenian governments have reportedly agreed to rebuild the Ani Bridge, which used to span the Arpaçay River that now marks part of the border between the two countries. Ani was a medieval Armenian city that now lies on the Turkish side of the border. Its bridge was destroyed piecemeal over the 13th and 14th centuries and only exists in ruins now. Rebuilding it is seen as a symbolic gesture toward reopening the Turkish-Armenian border, which Ankara closed in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan. Nowadays the two countries are trying to normalize relations in parallel with the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with its proposed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) through southern Armenia serving as part of a trade corridor extending from China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 17 people in Lebanon on Monday and has killed at least 110 there since Thursday (I haven’t seen any casualty figures for Tuesday yet). Lebanese casualty figures don’t differentiate between civilians and possible combatants but at least two children are among the recent dead and the IDF continues to kill people every day while displacing entire towns and villages despite the ostensible “ceasefire.”
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least three Palestinians across several attacks in Gaza on Tuesday. One of those attacks targeted a police station in the northern part of the territory, which is consistent with recent IDF efforts to decimate Gaza’s police force even if the 15 year old victim in this case was presumably not a law enforcement officer. The death toll in Gaza under the “ceasefire” is now at least 830.
IRAN
There are several items of note:
The UAE Defense Ministry claimed on Tuesday that the country had come under attack for the second straight day, though there’s no indication of any casualties or damage or even any sense of what the target(s) might have been. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, meanwhile, is now denying responsibility for either Monday’s or Tuesday’s apparent attacks, insisting that Iranian forces “have not carried out any missile or drone operations against the UAE in recent days.”
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz seems not to have increased on Monday despite assurances of US military protection under Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” operation. Only four vessels transited the strait in the 24 hour period prior to 9 AM GMT on Tuesday. I haven’t seen any information on activity since then so perhaps things picked up, though I’ll believe that when I see it. One cargo vessel was reportedly struck by an unspecified “projectile” in the strait on Tuesday but I haven’t seen any details apart from that. It seems exceedingly unlikely that shipping firms are going risk transiting the strait in large numbers when there’s still no guarantee that they won’t face an Iranian attack.
This just broke as I was writing tonight’s newsletter, but Trump apparently went on social media on Tuesday evening to announce that he’s suspending “Project Freedom” a whole two days into the operation. He attributed his decision to “the request of Pakistan and other Countries...and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran.” It’s all very simple and believable. Global oil prices started dropping as a result of this announcement and we can probably assume that the market manipulation was his main goal.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed on Tuesday that ten “civilian sailors” have died as a result of Iran’s closure of the strait. He didn’t explain, so it’s unclear how many, if any, were killed in attacks of some sort. He also claimed that the war on Iran is “over,” explaining to reporters that the US military is now engaging in “a defensive operation” to enforce its blockade of Iran. As a blockade is inherently an offensive act of war none of that makes any sense, but I’m sure Rubio thought it was a clever thing to say. The Trump administration is now pretending that the war is over for purposes of dodging a War Powers vote in the US Congress, which is a vote the administration would likely win but that would nevertheless remind voters how long this conflict has been going on. Iranian media, meanwhile, is claiming that the six “IRGC speedboats” that the US military said it destroyed on Monday were actually civilian vessels—at least two of them—and that US forces killed five civilians in those strikes.
CNN reported on Tuesday that the Israeli and US militaries are “coordinating” amid all of the excitement in the strait. This “includes preparation for a potential new round of strikes on Iran, the [Israeli] source said, which would focus on energy infrastructure and the targeted killing of senior Iranian officials.” Their source went on to say that “the intention would be to carry out a short campaign aimed at pressuring Iran into further concessions in negotiations.” This isn’t anything that hasn’t already been reported and that rationale remains as idiotic now as it was on February 28. But these reports further undermine those administration claims that the war is “over.”
Reuters reported on Monday that the US intelligence community estimates that this war has had zero effect on Iran’s nuclear program, in that if Iranian officials were to decide to pursue a nuclear weapon the time it would take for them to achieve that goal has not changed from where it was at the end of the “12 Day War” last year. Various US officials have insisted that preventing Iran from developing nukes is the main goal of this war so it seems relevant to note that it hasn’t done anything to advance that goal. Even the argument that the war would make the Iranians more conciliatory in negotiations has proven untrue, though to be fair that was always an asinine argument.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Afghan government is accusing the Pakistani military of killing at least three civilians in a new round of attacks on Afghanistan’s Kunar province on Monday. As far as I’m aware this would be the second round of major violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan since last month’s peace talks in China, following last week’s clash. But Pakistani officials are denying that they carried out an attack at all and are accusing the Afghans of staging scenes of alleged artillery damage in an attempt to “discredit” Islamabad.
CHINA
According to Reuters, the Trump administration is threatening to curtail Chinese travel to the US over what it claims is Beijing’s reluctance to repatriate Chinese nationals who are subject to deportation. According to the administration, the Chinese government has noticeably slowed the pace of such repatriations over the past six months, citing difficulties in verifying that prospective deportees are in fact actually Chinese. The administration could make it more difficult for Chinese nationals to obtain visas to enter the US and/or require potential travelers to post cash bonds with the US government. Some 30,000 Chinese nationals are awaiting deportation from the US at present. These threats are noteworthy in that they’re emerging ahead of Donald Trump’s scheduled May 14-15 trip to China, which was already shaping up to be a tense visit for multiple reasons.
AFRICA
SUDAN
A Rapid Support Forces drone strike killed at least five people and wounded nine more in southeastern Sudan’s White Nile state on Tuesday, according to the Sudan Doctors Network. Drones hit two fueling stations in what the network called “a deliberate attack on civilian infrastructure.”
GUINEA
World Politics Review’s Jessica Moody reports that Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin is trying to expand its reach into Guinea:
In late March, the Guinean government announced that it had dismantled a suspected terrorist network linked to JNIM and had arrested 11 people in April 2025 following a nationwide counterterrorism operation. The government did not explain why it had taken so long to announce the arrests. The dismantled cell admitted involvement in a longstanding hostage-for-ransom operation, which helped finance jihadist operations. The government’s investigation also found JNIM-affiliated WhatsApp groups that were being used to radicalize over 500 members as well as to coordinate jihadist operations in Guinea.
This is the first time that such jihadist connections have been found in the country, and it underscores the broadening reach of JNIM, which appears to be moving increasingly westward.
In recent years, JNIM has significantly expanded the scope of its attacks in Mali, Guinea’s vast, land-locked neighbor, which has historically been its core theater of operations. Its traditional strongholds are in the north and center of the country, but in 2025, nearly 20 percent of JNIM’s violent activities in Mali took place in the south and west, near the border with Guinea. Only 8 percent of violent incidents linked to JNIM took place in this part of the country in 2024.
Part of the logic behind JNIM’s geographic shift has been getting a piece of the mining action in western Mali. But additionally, having been somewhat stymied in its efforts to expand its jihadist violence south the group now appears to be probing the states west of Mali for a foothold.
(Foreign Exchanges readers can sign up for WPR’s free newsletter here and try out an all-access subscription free for 30 days, then $35 off—$77/year—after that.)
CHAD
Boko Haram fighters reportedly attacked a Chadian military base in the Lake Chad region on Monday night, killing at least 23 soldiers and wounding 26 more. The Chadian military said on Tuesday that its forces had driven the attackers off and killed several of them (though I haven’t seen any figures).
ETHIOPIA
As you may know, the Sudanese military (SAF) accused the Ethiopian government on Tuesday morning of facilitating drone strikes at the behest of the UAE government and on behalf of the RSF. The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry responded to that claim later in the day, calling it “baseless” and asserting instead that the SAF has been arming and funding Tigray People’s Liberation Front “mercenaries” who have been fighting in Sudan and conducting “incursions along Ethiopia’s western frontier.” I do not know if the SAF yet has responded to that allegation.
Speaking of the TPLF, it announced on Tuesday that it is reinstating the regional legislature that governed Tigray prior to the 2020-2022 war between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government. This follows a declaration the group made last month that it was seizing control over the regional administration from the interim government that was established in the settlement to that conflict. Ethiopian officials reacted negatively to that declaration. They haven’t yet commented on Tuesday’s announcement as far as I can tell.
ERITREA
Reuters reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing to lift US sanctions on Eritrea. A couple of weeks ago The Wall Street Journal reported that the administration was considering something like this, motivated primarily by the prospect of friendly relations with a country that borders the Red Sea and may have some exploitable mineral deposits. Apparently it’s also trying to warn Ethiopia off of going to war with Eritrea, which probably has more to do with the coastline and minerals than any principled antiwar stance but is still not a bad idea given how destructive such a conflict could be.
According to Responsible Statecraft’s Elfadil Ibrahim, the Egyptian government has been intensely involved in brokering contacts between the Trump administration and the Eritrean government. The Egyptians have their own grievances with Ethiopia, particularly around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and could be trying to draw the US into an emerging anti-Ethiopia regional bloc. A savvier US administration could use this opening to try to reduce regional tensions, but this administration has shown no capacity for that sort of diplomacy.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Foreign Policy’s Maurice Oniang’o reports on the recruitment network that is drawing Kenyans to Russia, often unwittingly, for military service:
According to Kenya’s National Intelligence Service, more than 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine, with 39 hospitalized, 30 repatriated, and 28 missing in action as of Feb. 18. At that time, the Kenyan government also assessed that 35 were in military camps or bases, 89 were on the front line, one was detained, and one had completed their contract. At least one—[Clinton Nyapara] Mogesa—has been killed, although Ukrainian military intelligence has reported two additional Kenyan deaths, and some families have held memorial services for kin believed to have died in the war.
According to Kenyan authorities, the recruitment pipeline is facilitated by local agencies—some operating informally, others as registered labor export firms—working with intermediaries linked to networks in Russia and the Middle East. These agencies advertise overseas employment targeting former military personnel, police officers, and unemployed young men. The offers include salaries of about $2,700 a month; signing bonuses; and, in some cases, promises of fast-tracked Russian citizenship.
Many recruits believe they are traveling for civilian work as drivers, cooks, or hotel workers, explained Fred Ojiro, who works for Vocal Africa, a Nairobi-based human rights group assisting affected families.
“These are not soldiers who signed up to fight,” Ojiro said. “They are young men who believed they were traveling for ordinary jobs and instead found themselves in a war with no way out.”
The Russian military has increasingly relied on foreign…oh, let’s say “recruits” as the war has gone on, and the Kenyan example may be illustrative in terms of how it’s approached “recruitment” in other countries.
UKRAINE
An expansive Russian bombardment killed at least 27 people across Ukraine on Tuesday, just days or possibly hours ahead of a forthcoming “Victory Day” ceasefire depending on which country’s ceasefire plan you’re following. Indeed the extent of the assault was probably meant to clarify that the Russians would not be adopting Ukraine’s midnight Wednesday ceasefire. Ukrainian attacks, meanwhile, killed at least five people in Crimea and at least two people in the Chuvashia Republic, which is located east of Moscow and well inside Russia.
ROMANIA
The Romanian government collapsed on Tuesday after losing a no confidence vote in parliament. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan had been left at the head of a minority government after the Social Democratic Party (PSD) quit his coalition last month in opposition to his austerity program. The PSD joined with the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians party to unseat the government. The parliamentary wrangling to form a new government should begin presently.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, the US military blew up two more speedboats over the past two days, one on Monday in the Caribbean and another on Tuesday in the eastern Pacific. Monday’s bombing killed at least two people and Tuesday’s at least three. As usual, in neither case did the Pentagon provide any evidence that the occupants of either boat were engaged in drug trafficking or any other criminal activity—though even if they were that would not justify their extrajudicial execution. It perhaps comes as no surprise, then, that the Trump administration has been lying about “Operation Southern Spear’s” impact on drugs entering the US, as The Intercept’s Nick Turse reports:
The word “deterrence” has become a popular Pentagon euphemism for the use of lethal strikes, in contrast to previous U.S. government efforts to marshal economic, diplomatic, and military means to convince adversaries to change their ways. “Deterrence has a signaling effect on narco-terrorists, and raises the risks with their movements,” [acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas Security Affairs Joseph] Humire claimed. But last month, for example, there were eight strikes in the span of 16 days, including five in five days. “That shows that traffickers, even along that high seas route, are not being deterred,” said [the Washington Office on Latin America’s Adam] Isacson.
The amount of cocaine seized by U.S. authorities suggests the strikes have had little impact on the trade. “Really absurdly, there’s been no impact on flows of drugs toward the United States,” said Isacson. While data is limited, figures from Customs and Border Protection show that seizures at U.S. borders and along coasts have increased amid the Trump administration’s airstrikes in the Caribbean and Pacific. “CBP’s cocaine seizures have actually gone slightly up since the boat strikes began. Cocaine seized at all U.S. borders in the seven months before the strikes began was 38,000 pounds. In the seven months since, it’s 44,000 pounds — 6,000 pounds more,” Isacson explained.
Not only are cocaine seizures up, the drug’s price has been relatively unchanged. Donald Trump claimed back in January that “drugs entering our country by sea are down 97 percent” because of his killing spree, which if it were anywhere close to being true would have caused the price of cocaine to spike. He’s made similarly absurd claims about the lives that have supposedly been saved by these boat attacks. Other officials in the administration have made less grandiose (and thus contradictory) claims but they also appear to be lying.