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PROGRAMMING NOTE: I have a family commitment this evening and so I need to publish today’s newsletter early and without voiceover. This is perhaps an appropriate moment to mention that the next few months are going to be somewhat haphazard as my daughter graduates from high school and heads off to college. I will try to keep the disruptions to a minimum but unavoidably there will be disruptions. Thanks for your patience.
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TODAY IN HISTORY
May 30, 1431: The 19 year old (give or take) Joan of Arc is burned at the stake for heresy. After helping shepherd Charles VII to the French throne in 1429, Joan was captured while accompanying an army sent to relieve the English-Burgundian siege of Compiègne in May 1430. The Burgundians transferred her to English custody, and despite several French attempts to rescue her she was placed on trial for heresy in January 1431. Despite a lack of evidence and amid heavy English interference in what was supposed to be a Church process, Joan was found guilty.
May 30, 1913: The Treaty of London brings the First Balkan War to an end. The victorious Balkan League and the “Great Powers” (Austria-Hungary, Britain, Germany, Italy, and Russia) dictated the terms, which gave Crete to Greece and ceded every remaining Ottoman European territory to the Balkan League, except for the European environs of Istanbul and the territory of an independent Albania whose exact borders were to be determined by the “Powers.” The treaty satisfied almost none of the parties, particularly over the issue of dividing formerly Ottoman Macedonia. An especially frustrated Bulgarian government wound up attacking Serbia and Greece on June 29, kicking off the Second Balkan War.
May 31, 1223: A Mongolian army on an expedition to circle the Caspian Sea crushes a substantially larger Kievan Rus’ force at the Battle of the Kalka River. Perhaps as much as 90 percent of the Rus’ army was wiped out, and the Mongols continued unimpeded on their way back to their homeland in eastern Asia.
May 31, 1902: The Treaty of Vereeniging brings an end to the Second Boer War. In effect the Boer states (the Transvaal and the Orange Free State) surrendered in exchange for an amnesty and a British pledge that, after a period of postwar military control, both states would be allowed to transition to the status of self-governing colonies. Presumably it will not come as a great surprise to learn that the parties agreed to put off any discussion of Black enfranchisement until after the colonies had achieved self-governing status, or in other words indefinitely. It should also not come as a surprise to learn that when they were granted self-governing status (1906 for the Transvaal and 1907 for the Orange Free State) the issue of Black enfranchisement still didn’t come up. The two colonies did agree to merge into the Union of South Africa in 1910, which gained independence (under the British Commonwealth) in 1931.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) expanded its occupation of southern Lebanon over the weekend, seizing Beaufort Castle and approaching the encirclement of the nearby city of Nabatieh. Beaufort is a Crusader-era structure but its significance for the IDF is less in its historic value than in the fact that it sits on one of the highest points in the region. The IDF previously held the site during its 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon and Israeli officials (including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) seem to be framing this as a “return” rather than a “reoccupation,” which has some troubling implications. Netanyahu also called the seizure “a dramatic stage and a dramatic shift” that could enable Israeli forces to expand their occupation more quickly.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam accused the IDF of pursuing a “scorched earth” policy, though that doesn’t seem to be upsetting him enough to do more than rhetorically complain about it. Aside from maximizing casualties—3412 dead and 10,269 wounded since March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry—the Israelis are aiming to make their Lebanon operations impervious to any new US-Iran ceasefire. It is unlikely that a ceasefire could survive with the IDF parked 25-plus kilometers inside Lebanon, and even if it did the Israelis can entrench their control over an expansive swath of the country.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least two people in Gaza on Saturday, while settler mobs attacked Palestinian villages near the West Bank cities of Hebron and Nablus. An Israeli airstrike killed another two people (at least) and wounded at least 12 in Gaza on Sunday. On the subject of Gaza’s “ceasefire,” under which Israeli forces have killed at least 922 people since October, the AP spoke to a few IDF soldiers who confirmed what everybody has been seeing in plain sight:
As diplomatic efforts to strengthen the deal have stalled, three soldiers described to AP a sense of confusion in the embattled territory, with a lack of clarity on rules of engagement around the yellow line. Some commanders paid lip service to the agreement, the soldiers said, while privately voicing desire for the war in Gaza to continue. Sometimes, troops were too far away or acted too quickly to recognize who they were shooting, one soldier said — a concern echoed in comments from a whistleblower group of veterans.
The soldiers’ accounts are a rare glimpse into what’s happened in the Israeli-controlled part of Gaza since the deal went into effect seven months ago. The soldiers — reservists deployed throughout Gaza between October and January who’ve since returned — spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared being ostracized over their comments. They said they were speaking out because they were angered and saddened by what they saw.
AP has documented shootings of Palestinian civilians, including children playing, close to the yellow line. And the soldiers said it felt like the killings never stopped amid the tenuous deal.
“To call it a ceasefire is a joke,” one soldier told AP.
IRAN
Donald Trump came out of his meeting on Friday, which was supposed to lead to a final decision on the latest proposal for negotiations with Iran, and decided to complicate the process by adding new demands for Tehran. There’s been no indication as to what specifically these demands entail but generally it sounds like they’re related to Iran’s nuclear program. I’m not sure the specifics matter, because this just reinforces the notion that Trump can’t make a deal—every time the two sides allegedly get close to an accord, he decides that it’s not “tough” enough and tries to change the terms.
There is already a fundamental imbalance between the irreversible steps the US wants Iran to take (e.g., eliminating its highly enriched uranium) and the reversible steps US negotiators are offering to take in return (e.g., lifting the naval blockade). Factor in the fact that Iranian leaders lack trust in their US interlocutors, who have followed negotiations with war twice in the past two years, and the addition of Trump’s repeated rug-pulling may be enough to prevent a deal.
Meanwhile, the US military “turned aside” a Gambian-flagged vessel that allegedly tried to run its blockade to get to Iran on Friday. By “turned aside” I mean “attacked,” by firing a missile into its engine room. There’s been no word as to casualties as far as I am aware.
ASIA
ARMENIA
The Russian government recalled its ambassador from Armenia on Saturday. Moscow is aggrieved that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan keeps trying to improve Yerevan’s relationships with the US and the European Union and it is allegedly trying to sway next month’s Armenian parliamentary election in the opposition’s favor. This expression of its displeasure can be viewed in that light.
SOUTH KOREA
The US and South Korean governments are “in talks” about a recent statement by the commander of US Forces Korea, Xavier Brunson. Apparently Brunson guested on a podcast and during that appearance he referred to South Korea as “the dagger in the heart of Asia,” specifically referring to its location just off the east coast of China. As you might expect, the Chinese government didn’t look kindly on that remark, nor did the South Korean government particularly care for their country being reduced to the status of a forward operating base in the event of World War III. Amazingly this isn’t the first time Brunson has stepped on this particular rake—last year he characterized South Korea as a “fixed aircraft carrier.” Again I don’t think South Korean officials were particularly thrilled about that, especially inasmuch as they’d like to maintain cordial relations with Beijing.
JAPAN
Japanese Defense Secretary Koizumi Shinjirō spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference in Singapore on Sunday and rejected Chinese claims that Tokyo is adopting a “new militarism.” The Chinese Foreign Ministry referred in a statement earlier this month to Japan’s “neo-militarism,” and Beijing’s Shangri-La representatives, Meng Xiangqing, questioned Japan’s “toxic legacy of militarism” and its ability to participate in regional defense cooperation projects. The Japanese government is undoubtedly keen on expanding the country’s military footprint, hence its decision to lift its ban on arms exports last month, but Koizumi’s argument is that it’s simply defending itself against China’s military buildup.
OCEANIA
AUSTRALIA
Continuing with a theme, representatives from Australia, the UK, and the US met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue and announced on Sunday that they’ve modified Joe Biden’s precious AUKUS arrangement. Under its new terms, the US will give Australia three nuclear-powered Virginia class attack submarines out of the US Navy’s existing fleet. Previously Australia had been due to receive two used subs and one new one. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles claimed that the updated arrangement would be “cost-effective,” but there is a major logistical consideration as well. US shipyards can’t even meet expectations for building new vessels for the Pentagon, let alone for supplying them to other countries.
AFRICA
The Wall Street Journal reports on continued tension over the Trump administration’s approach to African health aid:
A year after President Trump reversed decades of American policy toward poor countries and closed the U.S. Agency for International Development, some African governments are bridling at the conditions he has set for resuming funding to combat AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.
Nearly two dozen sub-Saharan countries have assented to Trump’s demands and struck deals with the U.S., including a $900 million, five-year pact with the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is currently the epicenter of a deadly Ebola outbreak. The Congo agreement came a couple of months after the country sealed a minerals deal with the U.S.
But Zimbabwe, Ghana and Zambia have said no or dragged out negotiations over the Trump administration’s self-described America First foreign-assistance policies, which aim to tie health aid more directly to U.S. diplomatic and security goals.
Talks with Zambia have stalled as the nation challenged Trump’s terms for a $2 billion American aid offer, calling U.S. demands for a critical-minerals deal, preferential treatment for U.S. companies and access to private health data unacceptable.
SUDAN
An apparent Sudanese military (SAF) drone strike reportedly killed at least ten people in West Kordofan state on Saturday. According to the National Umma Party the strike hit “two civilian vehicles.” There’s been no comment from the SAF as far as I know.
SOMALIA
Supporters of the former president of Somalia’s Southwest state, Abdiaziz Laftagareen, clashed with security forces in the city of Baidoa on Saturday in an incident that left at least six people dead. Federal Somali forces seized Baidoa back in March, forcing Laftagareen’s resignation. This was two weeks after his government had cut ties with Mogadishu, citing a then-alleged federal plot to oust him—and a few days after he’d won reelection as state president. Laftagreen had been among a number of state and regional leaders who objected to a constitutional amendment that the Somali parliament adopted earlier this year to extend President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term for at least another year. Saturday’s violence came as authorities were attempting to seat a newly elected state legislature.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement on Saturday expressing “serious concern” about the status of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. This was in response to Russian claims that a Ukrainian drone strike had damaged the facility. The Ukrainian military denied the charge and accused its Russian counterpart of engaging in “nuclear terrorism.” Zaporizhzhia is Europe’s largest nuclear plant and any attack on that site risks catastrophe.
Elsewhere, the Ukrainian military is reportedly bolstering defenses near the Belarusian border over fears that the Russian military could once again launch an attack from Belarusian soil. It’s citing unspecified intelligence to that effect. Ukrainian officials are also alleging that Belarusian companies are supporting Russia’s arms industry.
GERMANY
The German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported on Saturday that the US military may speed up its plans to withdraw forces from Europe. The Pentagon announced earlier this month that it was pulling 5000 soldiers out of Germany “over the next six to twelve months.” While there were no specifics in the report it would seem that the timetable could be accelerated. US officials are set to announce their plans at a NATO conference next month.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
Colombian voters headed to the polls for a presidential election on Sunday whose repercussions could be profound both nationally and regionally given the wide divergence in potential outcomes. Iván Cepeda, the nominee of leftist President Gustavo Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, is likely to win the first round but fall short of an outright victory according to polling. That would set up a June runoff, most likely against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or not-quite-as-far-right candidate Paloma Valencia, the nominee of former President Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center party.
Polling favors de la Espriella joining Cepeda in the runoff, but either matchup is likely to be a close-run affair. Cepeda has said that he will continue Petro’s effort to negotiate settlements with Colombia’s myriad armed non-state groups, while the other two are pledging a return to more militarized approaches and in that sense would both mesh better with the Trump administration.
UNITED STATES
The US military killed at least three people in another alleged drug boat attack on Friday and at least three more people in another such strike on Saturday, in both cases in the eastern Pacific. As ever it offered no evidence to support its case for extrajudicially executing these people.
Finally, TomDispatch’s Nick Turse considers the Trump administration’s steady bombardment of Somalia as a microcosm of its worldwide war against civilians:
The second Bush administration conducted 11 airstrikes in Somalia, killing as many as 144 people — including possibly 55 civilians, according to the think tank New America. Obama presided over 48 strikes during his eight years in office that killed as many as 553 people. Trump’s first term saw a massive escalation in such drone strikes. Over his first four years, Trump carried out 219 attacks, a 271% increase over the 16 years of the George W. Bush and Obama presidencies. But even that spike has paled in comparison to the relentless rate of attacks during Trump’s second term in office. While Biden exceeded Obama’s total in half the time — 51 strikes in four years — Trump is already set to eclipse his own infamous first-term record in less than a year and a half. He has presided over at least 190, if not more, air strikes in Somalia.
Trump’s killing spree in Somalia is just a small part of his wider war on the world. It’s no exaggeration to say that he has the U.S. military “run[ning] around shooting” people on an epic scale. During his two terms in office, Trump has overseen armed interventions and military operations — including air strikes, commando raids, proxy conflicts, so-called 127e programs, and full-scale wars — in Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Ecuador, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, North Korea, Pakistan, the Philippines, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, Venezuela, Yemen, and an unspecified country in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as attacks on civilians in boats in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean. His second term has, in fact been a furious blitz of global war-making, only half-noticed by the American news media. In March, for example, the United States made war on three continents during just three days, conducting attacks in Africa, Asia, and South America. During that span, the U.S. also struck a civilian boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Less than a year and a half into Trump’s second term, the U.S. has already killed more than 2,000 civilians from Latin America to the Middle East and Africa. “This is unprecedented in terms of the sheer number of theaters where harm to civilians has been reported within such a short space of time,” said Megan Karlshoej-Pedersen, a policy specialist with Airwars, a British-based organization that tracks civilian harm globally. She also pointed to attacks in the Caribbean Sea, the eastern Pacific Ocean, Iran, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen.