World roundup: May 22 2025
Stories from Iran, South Africa, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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PROGRAMMING NOTE: As I mentioned in Tuesday’s newsletter I will be taking a few days off corresponding with the Memorial Day holiday here in the US. We’ll be back to our regular schedule on Tuesday. Thanks!
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 22, 853: A Byzantine army/fleet attacks and sacks the Egyptian port city of Damietta.
May 22, 1990: The Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) are united as the Republic of Yemen. After the formation of a unified government that tended to favor northern Yemen, southern Yemen attempted to secede in 1994, touching off a short (May-July) Yemeni civil war. A lingering southern secessionist movement has once again become prominent amid the current Yemeni conflict.
INTERNATIONAL
A new study from the University of Maryland and the World Resources Institute finds that the planet lost twice as much forested area in 2024 as it had lost the previous year—6.7 million hectares, or as The New York Times put it “the equivalent of 18 soccer fields of forested land every minute.” Some of the heaviest losses were seen in two of the most climate critical forests in the world, the Amazon and Congo rain forests. The main cause, apparently for the first time since people started keeping track, was fire rather than agriculture (though the rate of destruction due to agriculture also rose for the year), meaning that not only were the trees lost but that their loss pumped a massive amount of carbon into the atmosphere. All that carbon will no doubt fuel the conditions that make wildfires more common and more severe.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, his government has joined with its counterparts in the US, Iraq, and Syria to form a committee to manage the thousands of Islamic State prisoners currently being held in overcrowded, undermanned facilities run by the Syrian Democratic Forces group. The Trump administration has asked the Syrian government to assume responsibility for those prisoners, around 9000 in all, many of whom are the wives and children of IS fighters rather than captured fighters themselves. The majority of these people are probably Syrian or Iraqi, but there’s a sizable number of foreigners whose own governments want nothing to do with them and have left the burden of detaining them on the SDF. If the Syrian government were to take on that burden it could make it easier to integrate the SDF into the Syrian security state, which is something the Turkish government would very much like to see. One assumes in that case that Erdoğan might offer some material support to Damascus in maintaining the prisoners.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
There are several items to cover:
Israeli military (IDF) strikes across Gaza killed more than 50 people on Thursday, while Israeli officials issued more evacuation orders for parts of Gaza City and its environs. There is no movement toward even a temporary ceasefire, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been insisting that he will not call an actual halt to this massacre until the whole of Gaza is militarily occupied by the IDF and he’s at least well on the way to implementing Donald Trump’s proposal to ethnically cleanse the territory of its Palestinian population. Consequently whatever negotiations were taking place in Qatar have reportedly ceased, and Netanyahu recalled his negotiating team on Thursday.
In what I suppose should be taken as a small bit of good news, the trickle of aid that Netanyahu decided to allow into Gaza earlier this week finally appears to be getting out to people who need it. The United Nations World Food Program said on Thursday that a “handful of bakeries” in the territory have reopened and are baking bread with the newly arriving supplies. Palestinian officials say they’ve seen at least 29 starvation deaths in Gaza “in recent days,” concentrated among children and the elderly.
Late Wednesday night a gunman killed two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington DC. They were leaving an event at the Capital Jewish Museum when the attack took place. Police have arrested a man from Chicago named Elias Rodriguez in connection with the shooting. He appears to have written a manifesto linking his actions to the situation in Gaza. Journalist Ken Klippenstein has published that manifesto in full at his newsletter.
IRAN
Amid all the recent speculation that the Israeli government is close to conducting airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly sent a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres and International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi on Thursday advising them that Tehran may move its nuclear material to one or more undisclosed sites for protection. That’s a provocative statement inasmuch as moving that material could take it out of the purview of IAEA inspectors, making it far more difficult for anyone outside of Iran to know what the Iranians are doing with it. This is one way in which Israeli strikes could backfire, if you believe their real aim is to disrupt the potential Iranian manufacture of nuclear weapons. Of course the threat itself could backfire if it prompts the Israelis to advance whatever strike plans they’re cooking up.
ASIA
INDIA
Another clash between Indian security forces and presumed Kashmiri militants left at least one soldier dead in the Jammu region on Thursday. The Indian army said it was “calling in reinforcements” at last check so the fighting appears to be ongoing.
MONGOLIA
Mongolia’s governing coalition appears to be collapsing after nine straight days (and counting) of protests in Ulaanbaatar demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene over a corruption scandal involving his son. It seems that some of the legislators from one of the coalition’s three participants, the Democratic Party, decided to join the calls for Oyun-Erdene’s resignation, and so his Mongolian People’s Party moved to dissolve the coalition. The People’s Party doesn’t need its coalition partners, exactly, as it does hold a small sole majority in parliament, but it will lose its supermajority without them.
NORTH KOREA
The North Korean People’s Navy reached a major milestone on Wednesday when it launched its second Choe Hyon-class destroyer—aaaaaand it’s gone. Having decided to put the vessel to sea in what’s known as a “side launch,” which just as it sounds involves easing the ship into the water sideways, naval officials and the assembled grandees—including leader Kim Jong-un himself—had to watch as the ship lost balance and capsized. State media is reporting that parts of the ship’s hull were crushed and the South Korean military says the vessel is still lying on its side in the shipyard. Kim is reportedly furious, reportedly characterizing the incident as a “criminal act caused by absolute carelessness, irresponsibility and unscientific empiricism” that “could not be tolerated.”
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Trump administration declared on Thursday that it will be imposing new sanctions against the Sudanese military after determining that it used chemical weapons last year amid its conflict with the Rapid Support Forces militant group. According to the State Department these measures will include restrictions on US exports and lines of credit. The decision appears to be based on the same evidence that The New York Times cited in reporting earlier this year that the military had used chlorine gas against groups of RSF fighters on at least two occasions in late 2024.
ALGERIA
World Politics Review’s Elfadil Ibrahim reports on the deterioration of the relationship between the Algerian and UAE governments:
North Africa is undergoing a geopolitical realignment that is leaving Algeria scrambling. As new alliances, particularly one coalescing around Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, reshape regional dynamics, Algiers confronts an increasingly unfamiliar and adversarial environment.
The sharpest manifestation of this trend is the trajectory of Algeria’s relations with the UAE, which have moved from low-grade tension to outright animosity. That shift has in turn engendered a palpable fear of encirclement that is causing profound unease in Algiers.
A recent political row that was at first glance about language and identity in fact points to the deeper tensions at play. In early May, while appearing on the UAE-based Sky News Arabia channel, prominent Algerian historian Mohamed Amine Belghit called Algeria’s constitutionally recognized indigenous Amazigh identity a “French-Zionist construct.” The backlash in Algiers was swift and severe. The Algerian government is highly sensitive to anything that might encourage separatism or unrest, especially in regions like Kabylie—the northern region where the Amazigh population is centralized—where such sentiments have a history. Belghit was imprisoned for “undermining national unity,” and Algerian state media offered a scathing denunciation, calling the UAE an “artificial mini-state” that had “crossed all red lines.”
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SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudanese President Salva Kiir named businessman Benjamin Bol Mel as the deputy chair of his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement party on Thursday, positioning him as Kiir’s heir apparent. It’s been widely rumored for some time now that the 73 year old Kiir—who is generally believed to be in poor health—had identified Bol Mel (who is sanctioned by the US government over corruption charges) as his preferred successor, and there’s reason to think that the recent escalation in conflict between Kiir and his chief rival Riek Machar has been motivated by Kiir’s desire to engineer an uncontested succession. Kiir has steadfastly refused to organize an election so he will presumably look to resign and hand power to Bol Mel that way rather than leaving it up to the South Sudanese people.
SOUTH AFRICA
In keeping with the dressing down that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa received from Donald Trump on Wednesday, The Intercept’s Sisonke Msimang writes that Trump’s fixation on the alleged plight of the Afrikaner community has become a source of humor for South Africans:
Rather than rage against Trump, South Africans have opted to laugh. Trump’s February comment that “terrible things are happening in South Africa” has become the basis of parody skits made by young South Africans — including Afrikaners — who have no interest in aligning themselves with nationalism.
They have shared video clips, captioned “terrible things are happening,” of white South Africans dancing and carousing with their Black compatriots, and made skits in which white South Africans speak, direct-to-camera, ironically about their terrible lives, as they record themselves in beautiful homes and are served drinks by Black staff.
The humor points to the fact that racial hierarchies are in place in the country, just not in the ways Trump and his refugees are prepared to admit. Trump’s proximity to wealthy white South Africans — from tech magnates like Elon Musk, his AI czar David Sacks, and Peter Thiel, who lived in apartheid South Africa and Namibia as a child, to the golfer Gary Player, with whom he is purportedly close — is notable.
MAURITIUS
The UK and Mauritian governments signed their agreement to turn ownership of the Chagos Islands over to the latter on Thursday. The two governments were reportedly close to finalizing the deal several weeks ago, after the Trump administration assented to its terms. Under those terms the UK and US will lease the largest of the Chagos Islands, Diego Garcia, from Mauritius for at least the next 99 years for an annual payment of £101 million. That island is home to one of the US military’s largest and most important overseas bases and retaining the use of that facility was a key consideration in negotiating the handover. The agreement also establishes a construction cordon around Diego Garcia and gives the UK the right to veto the ingress of any foreign civilian or military elements in the Chagos archipelago.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The US National Security Agency claimed on Thursday that “hackers working for the Russian military” have managed to penetrate “Western technology and logistics companies involved in shipping assistance to Ukraine.” According to the agency they’ve been able to access company records as well as internet-connected cameras positioned around key shipment routes and along the Ukrainian border. It would seem they’ve managed to get a pretty detailed picture of what aid Ukraine is receiving and when it’s receiving it.
UKRAINE
To I assume no great surprise, the Russian government stated plainly on Thursday that there are currently no plans for further Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The two sides are at least ironing out the details of the massive 1000 per side prisoner swap they agreed to undertake at last week’s negotiating session in Istanbul, but beyond that those talks appear to have sapped whatever remaining momentum there was behind any sort of peace process.
According to The Wall Street Journal, when Donald Trump briefed European leaders on the phone call he held with Vladimir Putin on Monday, he seemed convinced that Putin just isn’t interested in ending the war:
One of the European officials, who participated in the call, said that Trump began Monday’s discussion, held to brief allies on the U.S. president’s lengthy Sunday phone conversation with Putin, by saying, “I think Vladimir does not want peace.”
Trump, the official said, told the people on the call that the war was going well for Putin and that he would “therefore keep fighting.” This official’s conclusion: Trump “simply doesn’t want to take sides.”
The officials said Trump showed no inclination he would follow the advice of European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who have argued he should double down on the fight against Russia.
Trump had held an earlier call with European leaders on Sunday—a day before his two-hour conversation with Putin. At that time, he had indicated that he could impose sanctions if Putin refused a cease-fire, according to people familiar with the conversation.
By Monday, he had shifted, saying he wasn’t ready to do that. Instead, Trump said he wanted to proceed quickly with lower-level talks between Russia and Ukraine at the Vatican.
Trump’s affinity for Putin has been pretty well-documented by this point, but prior to that call there had been a sense that he was getting frustrated with the Russian leader and would, if Putin continued to obstruct peace talks, be prepared to ratchet up the pressure. As the above notes, he’d basically said as much to the Europeans. It’s unclear how Putin managed to talk him out of that but the upshot appears to be that Trump is checking out and the war will continue indefinitely.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Donald Trump on Thursday confirmed that his administration has attempted to traffic a group of eight migrants to South Sudan. Their flight, however, has according to The New York Times been stopped in Djibouti after a federal court in Boston ordered a halt to the operation. All eight had previously been convicted of an array of crimes, but it’s unclear how trafficking them to South Sudan is supposed to be more efficacious than leaving them in prison in the US. It’s also unclear whether doing so is legal, and it’s certainly not legal to do so contrary to a court order. The court ruled that the eight men and their lawyers must be given an opportunity to contest their expulsion to South Sudan.
Finally, Jacobin’s José Miguel Ahumada argues that while the US-led international “free trade” system was harmful to developing nations, the way Trump is dismantling it will probably be worse:
Trump’s goal is to ensure US companies have preferential world market access, no longer through the multilateral trade system but unilateral tariff threats. This has been explicitly suggested by Trump’s advisers. “This is not a negotiation,” Peter Navarro tells the world, declaring that the current international trade system is broken and needs to be remade by the United States. Stephen Miran holds that the United States’ structural trade deficit and overvalued currency can be overcome with, among other measures, unilateral tariffs that punish countries that impose any trade rules considered by the Trump administration as either protectionist, not aligned with the US security agenda, or not protecting US intellectual property and investments.
Currently, the United States is forcing countries to bilaterally negotiate new agreements with them to potentially remove unilateral tariff impositions and secure certain protections. Trump wants foreign leaders to bring to the table issues like intellectual property rights, immigrant detention, subsidies, privileged access to critical minerals, and trade reductions with China. These are part of an agenda to secure privileged market access and key asset provision, and they will come at the cost of developing countries’ already limited policy space. This tactic reached an apogee in the recent negotiations with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who signed a deal this month granting Washington access to the beleaguered nation’s mineral wealth.
Peripheral countries are thus being pushed into an arbitrary negotiation framework: either they further restrict their policy spaces — beyond what the WTO and the existing wave of free-trade agreements have already imposed — or the United States will enforce its tariff threats. Countries such as Chile are being pressured to implement foreign investment screening mechanisms in strategic sectors such as lithium and copper, where Chile ranks among the world’s top producers, with the implicit aim of using domestic regulatory frameworks to limit Chinese investment flows. Simultaneously, the United States Trade Representative has recently released the 2025 Special 301 Report on Intellectual Property Protection and Enforcement, once again listing Chile as a country that actively violates intellectual property rights, marking it as a target for coercive negotiations.